AFL 2018 - AFL Round 20

Who Covers The Line This Week?


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Aug 15, 2011
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I normally only put 1U on player markets (sometimes 2 if i really like it). But Unibet have just posted an absolute gem. Lambert has played 9 games with prestia in the team this year for 229 disposals (av 25.4). Without prestia he has 166 disposals in 9 games (av 18.4). Most bookies have dropped his line slightly for this week to 22.5 or 23.5 but Unibet still have him at 25.5. Id hammer it if I could but im heavily limited.
Which bookies have him 22.5?

A 3 point disposal middle at 1.87 odds guys?
 

Bontempele

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Sep 22, 2017
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Which bookies have him 22.5?

A 3 point disposal middle at 1.87 odds guys?


At this time of the season where the bookies have finally got their lines almost identical id generally gobble up a 3 point middle. However i think theres a large chance he goes under 22.5, averaging 18.4 without prestia he clearly struggles to find it without prestia extracting it for him. Just my 2 cents though, if you were after the 22.5 for the middle its on topsport and sportsbet. Crown have him at 23.5, under is 1.93
 

Red Dog Styles

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Feb 13, 2017
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I normally only put 1U on player markets (sometimes 2 if i really like it). But Unibet have just posted an absolute gem. Lambert has played 9 games with prestia in the team this year for 229 disposals (av 25.4). Without prestia he has 166 disposals in 9 games (av 18.4). Most bookies have dropped his line slightly for this week to 22.5 or 23.5 but Unibet still have him at 25.5. Id hammer it if I could but im heavily limited.
Great find. Still on unibet at that price. Normally i go the over disposals but might try unders tonight. Thanks!

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

mookieb

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Oct 4, 2006
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It is going to take a lot to stop me from putting several units on the Lions to win big on Saturday. I'm talking three or four units, which I rarely do these days (because bankroll management is the only thing saving me from falling from 'mug punter' level to 'potential problem gambler' level).

Here's why I like the Lions:

*No Higgins. North's best midfielder out. Wins ball, uses ball, runs both ways. And attracts the tag (and off-ball attention)...

*...which means Cunnington or Ahern now cops the tag/attention. Complete change to midfield structure.

*Cunnington and Ahern were both beasts against West Coast. If either drops output on Saturday, the entire midfield setup collapses.

*It is warm in Brisbane right now. Imagine 'hot' Melbourne weather in October. That is how it is in Brisbane right now. Warm during the day.

*This will test a North side which is mediocre in terms of fitness. Hobart was freezing, this is the opposite.

*North have been well beaten by teams on the spread several times this year. Brisbane can easily outspread this North team.

*Since the bye, North have beaten the Bulldogs, the Suns, and an injury-ravaged West Coast. Spanked by Collingwood by ten goals.

*Lions have a habit of front-running once they gain ascendancy. If they win in the middle, this could be a bloodbath.

*Even when North were an improving/good team (2014-2016) they seemed to struggle in SEQ. Lost at least two 'gimme' games IIRC.

With sportsbet offering $4 for Brisbane to win by 30+, this could be the 'bankroll job' Oraz has been waiting for.
Wouldn't agree with all your points - Ahern was great against WC but you can't rely on someone who's played a handful of games. NM don't look mediocre in fitness to me - their performance in 3rd / 4th quarters doesn't indicate this.

However, with Jacobs and now Higgins gone the midfield does look shaky given that they are up against Zorko and Beams. They are starting to look a little one paced and Higgins is the real game changer in the middle for them. They're is a good chance they get cut up on the spread and with the warm weather Bris can get on a roll when on top so the 30+ isn't a bad option.

NM have been pretty poor after the bye. They had a great win against WC, but the scrappy conditions and poor WC strategy certainly was a good matchup. I'm favouring Bris who have been pretty good of late against NM who I don't believe are travelling that well.
 

chrisdon16

@AFLsystembet
Mar 20, 2013
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Very surprised Geelong have been coming in this week. Form wise they've been average at best. After the bye, they've lost to the Bulldogs and Adelaide, should have easily lost to Melbourne, beaten Sydney in a close one and beaten Brisbane at home. I think the Brisbane win has been a massive overreaction. They're playing the best team in the comp at the ground they haven't lost at in 18 games. Got the Tigers by 27. Opinion wise I think they run away in the 2nd half and win by 6 goals+. Hopefully the rain stays away...

Richmond -14.5 (Topbetta, NEDS, 365 $1.93)
 
Aug 15, 2011
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Has the rain finally started to come in Melbourne.

Richmond pushing out towards 1.50, for me thats a steal in this weather especially when Hawkins has been the main avenue for goals recently and if wet with rance/Astbury around the cats will struggle to kick a big enough score

Is there a late out potentially for tigers causing the push or just the rain evening things up?
 
Everyone is overreacting to Hawkins' bags, and ignoring the fact that he's done so against weak-ish sides. The pressure the Tigers will put them under will see them crumble, it's exactly what the Crows did.
 
Aug 15, 2011
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1.2 under 94.5 (Lads) Dusty Fantasy

Only covered 1 from last 11

Rain probably doesnt help as hes not a great tackler

Stewart usually plays on him when he goes torward i expect Tuohy or potentially Blicavs to get this job or bews or kolo. Most cat defenders are versatils.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
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Essendon
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Port Adelaide
Everyone is overreacting to Hawkins' bags, and ignoring the fact that he's done so against weak-ish sides. The pressure the Tigers will put them under will see them crumble, it's exactly what the Crows did.

Has been very good all year though and its not just his goals but agree tigers crumble them in the end i dont see much chnage from 6-7 wks ago scoreline and margin
 
Aug 3, 2014
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1.2 under 94.5 (Lads) Dusty Fantasy

Only covered 1 from last 11

Rain probably doesnt help as hes not a great tackler

Stewart usually plays on him when he goes torward i expect Tuohy or potentially Blicavs to get this job or bews or kolo. Most cat defenders are versatils.
1u @2 tailing you on this. Dusty has been well below his last years Fantasy form all year.
 
Aug 15, 2011
23,780
8,380
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Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
1U TGPoints <165.5 @1.90 (Sports)
1U TGP > 151.5 @1.86 (Lb)
1U Dusty <94.5 @2 (LB)
2U Lambert <25.5 1.87 (Unibet)
1U Lambert >22.5 1.87 (SBET)
1.2U Henderon <68.5 @1.88 (crownbet)

GL all tonight
 
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