AFL 2018 - AFL Round 22

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Richmond |$1.28|$1.30|$1.30|$1.29|$1.28
\Essendon |$3.75|$3.66|$3.60|$3.75|$3.70
\|line:22.5|line:23.5|line:23.5|line:23.5|line:23.5
\total score:|***.5|164.5|166.5|164.5|163.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Collingwood |$1.40|$1.42|$1.42|$1.42|$1.40
\Port Adelaide |$3.00|$2.90|$2.90|$2.95|$3.00
\|line:17.5|line:17.5|line:17.5|line:16.5|line:16.5
\total score:|***.5|149.5|150.5|149.5|148.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Geelong |$1.04|$1.02|$1.05|$1.03|$1.05
\Fremantle |$11.00|$13.00|$10.00|$14.00|$10.00
\|line:52.5|line:54.5|line:53.5|line:54.5|line:54.5
\total score:|***.5|155.5|157.5|156.5|155.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\G-W Sydney |$1.70|$1.71|$1.71|$1.74|$1.72
\Sydney|$2.15|$2.15|$2.15|$2.15|$2.15
\|line:5.5|line:6.5|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:5.5
\total score:|***.5|166.5|167.5|165.5|166.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Gold Coast |$4.60|$4.20|$4.35|$4.35|$4.35
\Brisbane |$1.20|$1.23|$1.22|$1.23|$1.22
\|line:28.5|line:27.5|line:29.5|line:27.5|line:27.5
\total score:|***.5|180.5|178.5|175.5|179.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\St. Kilda |$5.50|$5.30|$5.00|$5.35|$5.25
\Hawthorn |$1.15|$1.16|$1.18|$1.17|$1.17
\|line:32.5|line:33.5|line:34.5|line:33.5|line:33.5
\total score:|***.5|175.5|175.5|173.5|175.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Carlton |$5.00|$4.20|$4.35|$4.35|$4.35
\West. Bulldogs |$1.18|$1.23|$1.22|$1.23|$1.22
\|line:28.5|line:28.5|line:29.5|line:27.5|line:28.5
\total score:|***.5|171.5|171.5|170.5|170.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\West Coast |$1.60|$1.62|$1.62|$1.62|$1.60
\Melbourne |$2.35|$2.30|$2.35|$2.35|$2.30
\|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:7.5|line:8.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|167.5|169.5|167.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|BetEasy|Ladbrokes|Bet365
\Adelaide |$1.35|$1.35|$1.40|$1.38|$1.36
\North Melb. |$3.25|$3.20|$3.00|$3.15|$3.20
\|line:19.5|line:19.5|line:18.5|line:19.5|line:19.5
\total score:|***.5|186.5|188.5|184.5|187.5

ODDS AT 22.15 ON 14/8/2018

 

[Atavistic]

I'm getting on Richmond early at $1.30 at SB.

 

[Smitch]

BetEasy have a promo Richmond and Collingwood both $2 max bet only $25.

 

[chrisdon16]

Richmond have top 2 locked up, guaranteed MCG home final. Does this affect how they play this week? There is a chance they treat this as a dead rubber game and rest a few players.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Richmond have top 2 locked up, guaranteed MCG home final. Does this affect how they play this week? There is a chance they treat this as a dead rubber game and rest a few players.

Or they try and help win another Coleman medal

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Geelong's total of 104.5 seems low.

 

[tigertigertiger]

Or they try and help win another Coleman medal

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

That's what the fans want, but it's been mentioned dimma won't allow the game plan to be adjusted for this

 

[Ohh Ok]

What sort of a line to people think Gold Coast need to be at for it to be worth me taking a middle? Picked up Brisbane -9.5 over a month ago

 

[mookieb]

I'm getting on Richmond early at $1.30 at SB.

Yeah I jumped on Rich on the weekend. No Fantasia or Saad and i'm banking on Hooker and Goddard being very doubtful. That's 4 key players out playing Rich at the MCG where they rarely lose by under 4 goals anyway. Rich smashed them by 71 points early in the season so i'm a little doubtful Ess playing style will match up to Rich.

Also got on Coll early. Dixon and Houston out and more importantly Ryder. Grundy is going to have a field day feeding the Coll mids.

 

[maskmcgee]

What sort of a line to people think Gold Coast need to be at for it to be worth me taking a middle? Picked up Brisbane -9.5 over a month ago

+100.5

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah I jumped on Rich on the weekend. No Fantasia or Saad and i'm banking on Hooker and Goddard being very doubtful. That's 4 key players out playing Rich at the MCG where they rarely lose by under 4 goals anyway. Rich smashed them by 71 points early in the season so i'm a little doubtful Ess playing style will match up to Rich.

Also got on Coll early. Dixon and Houston out and more importantly Ryder. Grundy is going to have a field day feeding the Coll mids.

Are Saad and Fantasia guaranteed to miss?
Melbourne loseing to Sydney mightve also dashed the hopes of Essendon or do they still think they csn make it and beat Richmond.

Once its un winnable this game could blow out very late.

 

[maskmcgee]

Are Saad and Fantasia guaranteed to miss?
Melbourne loseing to Sydney mightve also dashed the hopes of Essendon or do they still think they csn make it and beat Richmond.

Once its un winnable this game could blow out very late.

Fansasia is, Saad is not.

Either way $25 on Richmond @ $2. If we win, who cares. If we lose, $$$.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Fansasia is, Saad is not.

Either way $25 on Richmond @ $2. If we win, who cares. If we lose, $$$.

Did you see they also have this same promo for Collingwood over Port? Whats your thoughts there?
At this stage I will go for the 2 afl and 2 nrl $2 promos

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[mookieb]

Are Saad and Fantasia guaranteed to miss?
Melbourne loseing to Sydney mightve also dashed the hopes of Essendon or do they still think they csn make it and beat Richmond.

Once its un winnable this game could blow out very late.

I like it get in early and speculate somewhat, but I think Goddard, Fantasia will miss and both Saad (knocked out cold) and Hooker who didn't finish the game must be highly doubtful. If they all miss Ess are facing Rich who are 15W 0L in Melbourne and at the MCG where they are even better than other grounds, with a full Rich list.

I have some doubts that Ess style can be successful against Rich regardless especially at the MCG where they lost by 71 points previously.

Fantasia is a gun and Hooker, Saad and Goddard are 50% of your backline. However, even if they were playing could they get within 20 points of Rich at the MCG? in 12 games this year only 3 teams have gotten under 20 points - Geel twice (one game margin was 18 points) and Hawks once (who play the MCG very well).

Alternatively Ess are 1W 6L at the same ground this year. Sure most of the losses were before the massive form turnaround, but it's still a pretty poor form line.

I jumped on the line and a smaller amount on Rich 40+.

 

[maskmcgee]

Did you see they also have this same promo for Collingwood over Port? Whats your thoughts there?
On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well you'd think think that's free money, but Collingwood haven't beaten a top 8 team except Melbourne.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Well you'd think think that's free money, but Collingwood haven't beaten a top 8 team except Melbourne.

Yeah true. Feels a bit like a trap after the sure thing choice of Richmond

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[mookieb]

If your into some psychological tipstering I have been doing some work for round 23.

Obviously this round differs in that it consists of some teams that will be finishing their season, teams under pressure to perform ie to make finals or top 4 and teams gearing up for finals. Last year saw some big blowouts with Rich and Melb both losing by over 110 points. Obviously with nothing to play for they "mailed it in". The last 5 seasons have seen at least 3 games with margins over 50 points, but no line for next week exceeds 50.

I suspect that the best situations are very good teams playing at home vs weak / young teams or teams under pressure to perform vs teams that are playing out a dead rubber.

Therefore I believe that Port vs GC is my bet of the round. Port are ruthless against weak teams at home (ave 50+ win vs teams outside the 8 in the last 2 years) and GC have been terrible - lost to Freo on the road by 4 goals, outscored by Bris by 80 points after qtr time and lost to Ess by 33 with 18 less scoring shots). In a normal round I would have Port winning this by 50+ points, but given it's the last round this could be a very big blowout.

Both Bris and NM won't make finals, but Bris are going great guns (thrashed their last 3 teams at home that are outside the 8) and NM are 1W 9L in their last ten. I think Bris will be keen to pounce on NM so I have them clear favs plus the potential for NM to be flat travelling in the last round.

Ess need to beat Freo to make finals and are clearly the better team playing at home. Alot to play for one team and nothing for the other. Same for Melb vs Coll. I'm expecting Coll to play some more youth and Adams is unlikely joining Pendles, Wells, Greenwood, Varcoe, De Goey and Fasolo on the injury list. They've run out of cattle. Melb need to win to make finals.

I think Carl season has finished on a high beating the Hawks. Feel this is a situation where they gear themselves up for their last win on the calendar then it's season done. They did it last year beating Melb in round 22 then being beaten easily by Ess in round 23.

Obviously not all teams have their mind on Mad Monday with some good performances in recent years such as Coll nearly beating the Hawks who needed to win to get the double chance.

I'm on Port -34.5 / -38.5, Ess -20.5, Melb -7.5, Bris H2H and Syd -46.5.

Round 23 thread isn't up yet and lines are moving so thought I would throw the post up now to see if anyone has an opinion.

FYI the above post was my attempt at psychological tipstering for round 23 last year.

I started looking a couple of weeks ago into trends towards the latter part of the season for weaker teams results from round 20-23. It appears to me that weaker teams during the latter end of the season can go "hunting" for a win either against weak opposition or surprising a better team. Nothing particularly mind blowing about that but it appears that teams winning these games can lead to a significant letdown spot the following week where their intensity is significantly lower.

This year we have had GC beats Syd, but then loses to Carl (missing the line by 62.5 points). Carl beat the Suns but then lose to GWS (missing the line by 62.5 and with GWS 4 short).

Last year we saw Freo beat GC before losing consecutive games by over 100 points. Carl beat Hawks then lost to Syd by 81. NM beat Melb by 4 then lost to Coll by 54. Bris did not fit the trend beating GC then being super competitive against Melb.

So if i'm on the right track then potentially Freo could get an absolute thumping this week. This week is also the QLD derby which will be a massive game for both teams. The following week could be a horrible spot for both teams especially GC playing Geel at SS.

For some teams the necessary motivation could come from finishing off the last game strongly to finish on a good note. In the above post I thought that Bris would beat NM, but Bris had a good finish to the season and NM were coming off 3 bad performances - enough motivation to thrash Bris. For Freo they were coming off 2 100 point losses - enough motivation to give Ess a massive scare.

I'm expecting therefore StK to give one of their last 2 games a real shake and Carl perhaps to give WB a scare coming off a couple of wins.

Plus of course the usual scenarios where it's a dead rubber for one team and the other needs to win to play finals ala WC vs Ade.

Small sample sizes for the above, but it will be of interest to see how things pan out.

 

[maskmcgee]

Alternatively Ess are 1W 6L at the same ground this year. Sure most of the losses were before the massive form turnaround, but it's still a pretty poor form line.

Well since then we've beaten Geelong, and lost to Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn. I think the ground is quite coincidental.

 

[Robo87]

Dixon and Houston out and more importantly Ryder. Grundy is going to have a field day feeding the Coll mids.

might have to see if theres any value in any Grundy lines around..

 

[mookieb]

Yeah I jumped on Rich on the weekend. No Fantasia or Saad and i'm banking on Hooker and Goddard being very doubtful. That's 4 key players out playing Rich at the MCG where they rarely lose by under 4 goals anyway. Rich smashed them by 71 points early in the season so i'm a little doubtful Ess playing style will match up to Rich.

Also got on Coll early. Dixon and Houston out and more importantly Ryder. Grundy is going to have a field day feeding the Coll mids.

Polec is also in doubt apparently.

 

[mookieb]

Anyone else like GWS?

It's basically line ball now with the line having come in to -4.5. However GWS form over the last 6 weeks has been outstanding whereas Syd have been quite ordinary. I didn't really rate the Coll win by Syd and although they were fantastic against Melb they had 6 less scoring shots and this game followed the trend of Syd getting absolutely flogged in inside 50's with Melb winning that by 19.

If Kelly plays I think GWS are good things if not i'll have to reevaluate.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Cripps over Oliver @1.88 (Beteasy)
1U M.Murphy over Heppell @1.88
1U Shuey <93.5 1.88
1U S.Ross over Yeo 1.88

Some early bets

Oliver Hutchings tag.

Yeo or Shuey the Harmes tag. Ross at etihad is huge. Heppell tough game at mcg vs Tigers. Blues play doggies expect a high scoring bruise free etihad game with plenty of high scoring.

 

[Prochard123]

1U Cripps over Oliver @1.88 (Beteasy)
1U M.Murphy over Heppell @1.88
1U Shuey <93.5 1.88
1U S.Ross over Yeo 1.88

Some early bets

Oliver Hutchings tag.

Yeo or Shuey the Harmes tag. Ross at etihad is huge. Heppell tough game at mcg vs Tigers. Blues play doggies expect a high scoring bruise free etihad game with plenty of high scoring.

I really don't agree with some of your picks, and decided to bet against you in some cases last week. However you proved to be right so good job

 

[RooTed]

Like Rich/Dons o164.5 and Pies/Port o149.5 both @theG and @ SB $1.90

Sent from the old mobile using Tapatalk

 

[Keystone agony]

I really don't agree with some of your picks, and decided to bet against you in some cases last week. However you proved to be right so good job

Last week was a bit up and down and sometimes im my worst enemey ie i should keep to the bets i really like and bet more. Rather than going on so many and i should research into things a bit more. I just back myself in the long run to easily be ahead over time.

I have been winning comfortably for 6-7 years on fantasy bets.