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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 3

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mookieb said:
Only two weeks in and already teams already under the pump. Should be a fascinating round of footy:

Really like Coll -11.5. If they lose this then at 0-3 and a loss to Carl under their belts then the season is almost over. They have been great in games over the last 2 years when under pressure and a loss may well have seen Bucks sent packing. Sure it's a big game for both teams, but Carl have shown little and Coll were pretty close to upsetting GWS. Cox and Reid back should straighten them up.

Should have jumped on Port when the line was low 40's, but likely to leave it now.

Melb / NM should be interesting given that North have a good record against them. Should have jumped on NM when the line was high 20's, but worried because underdog teams having big win don't fair well ATS the following week.

Reckon Freo is slightly better team than GC plus a couple of goals for HGA. Leaning towards Freo as i'm not sure that GC can maintain the same intensity for a third game on the road.

Think GWS are good to go H2H and the line. Think Syd are a bit overated at the SCG and GWS won by 7 goals their last year. Syd seem very highly reliant on Buddy and if he is crowded then they will struggle to score. I'm hesitant to bet against Syd coming off a loss but think the best team wins here.

StK were terrible last week so they either bottom out with another terrible performance or respond to the smashing they have received in the media and internally. I think they will bounce back this week and potentially facing Ade in a letdown spot after the GF replay. I got Ade earlier in the week so will probably go for a middle.

Hawks look fantastic and Rich have looked relatively ordinary so I grabbed Hawks +10.5. For all the raving about Richmond's pressure they have leaked goals for 2 weeks and that's with Dusty dominating. If they are the real deal again then they will be looking to bounce back (ala the Hawks used to after a loss in their premiership years).

Geel are dead last in inside 50's 8 behind StK. They are very heavily reliant on top end talent and so it hurts when players like Taylor, Henderson and especially Duncan miss. Stanley vs Nic Nat is going to be ugly to watch. Unfortunately underdog teams having massive wins doesn't often translate the next week so might give it a miss.

I find that teams that are appalling to weeks in a row then bounce back the next week. However, Ess is also coming off a poor display and think their stacked forward line looks likely to dominate with Morris, Trengrove, Adams injured plus Libba and Picken. Roughead is also missing so English will get monstered in the ruck. I got -14.5 and just can't see them having the team to cover that line.
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Coll. Tick.

Freo playing GC who were 2 and 0 playing their 3rd game in a row on the road. Tick.

Syd are fantastic after a loss so I ended up backing GWS. Fail.

GF winner coming off a loss. Backed Hawks. Fail.

Underdog teams coming off massive wins. NM lost comfortably. Tick. WC won by but Geel had 3 on the bench and got swamped. Inconclusive.

Of course I have spent some time analysing teams that have been atrocious 2 weeks in a row then bounce back. Exactly like WB. Picked Ess anyway. Fail.

If I just listened to myself I might just get somewhere...
 

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chrisdon16 said:
Embarrassing from the bombers
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Why, because the Dogs are so crap? They're not... and Essendon just aren't that good. Media and fans build teams up then shoot them down week to week leaving an unrealistic expectation for everyone including punters.

The talent pool is diluted enough now that who turns up on the day is as important as anything. Our game is more about effort and intensity and less about skill than ever.

Someone posted recently about the massive impact 2 losses in a row has on a team's response the next week (trying to find it). :)
 
CatFan79 said:
The talent pool is diluted enough now that who turns up on the day is as important as anything. Our game is more about effort and intensity and less about skill than ever.
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As a Carlton fan I beg to differ
 
CatFan79 said:
Why, because the Dogs are so crap? They're not... and Essendon just aren't that good. Media and fans build teams up then shoot them down week to week leaving an unrealistic expectation for everyone including punters.

The talent pool is diluted enough now that who turns up on the day is as important as anything. Our game is more about effort and intensity and less about skill than ever.

Someone posted recently about the massive impact 2 losses in a row has on a team's response the next week (trying to find it). :)
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Never said the dogs were "crap". They're not....

Essendon are just a gutless team, have been since for 17 years (no exaggeration). They play like they deserve the football in the contest. Probably finish 7 or 8 this season again just to make up the numbers.... Again.
 

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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 3

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