2018 Draft thread

[M Malice]

Interesting comments on the draft and trade board in regards to Cal Twomey, sparked by a tweet from Kevin Sheehan. Read the 2018 AFL Combine thread.

2 of the guys I like draft night for us as midfielders are actually medium defenders.

 

[jjami15]

Interesting comments on the draft and trade board in regards to Cal Twomey, sparked by a tweet from Kevin Sheehan. Read the 2018 AFL Combine thread.

Medium defenders/midfielders, doesn't really matter but it is a bit lazy I reckon. Do appreciate the efforts that Pie 4 Life and D_P_S and Knightmare make in regards to going out and watching the games. Think Twomey just has a chat with the recruiters these days anyways.

 

[M Malice]

Medium defenders/midfielders, doesn't really matter but it is a bit lazy I reckon. Do appreciate the efforts that Pie 4 Life and D_P_S and Knightmare make in regards to going out and watching the games. Think Twomey just has a chat with the recruiters these days anyways.

When you listen to Twomey he quite often jokes and/or intimates that he doesn't want to be on the show. Doesn't come across as a professional draft crop analyzer dedicated to his craft IMO.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Medium defenders/midfielders, doesn't really matter but it is a bit lazy I reckon. Do appreciate the efforts that Pie 4 Life and D_P_S and Knightmare make in regards to going out and watching the games. Think Twomey just has a chat with the recruiters these days anyways.

I seem to recall Berry was played mainly in defence in the Championships and even if he is primarily a midfielder at TAC cup level it doesn't mean he might not be viewed as having more potential as a small defender by AFL scouts. As you say doesn't really matter but I reckon we can cut Cal some slack on this one.

 

[harvester]

Certainly looks like an interesting trade and draft period ahead.

I can see us going with the four senior list delistings.

If we do bring in one delisted free agent, that leaves us with just three National Draft picks.

3rd and 4th round picks have little trade value, unless there is a team such as Fremantle who only have their first round pick, then nothing until the 5th round and do want to get back in to the middle of the draft. Or a club, such as Collingwood needs to add some picks/points to match bids on FS and/or NGA academy kids.

I could certainly see us considering packaging our first and second round picks to try and move up in the draft order to draft Sam Walsh. We could even offer our 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks to Carlton for their 1st round and 4th round picks.

Then we take pick 1 and picks 58 & 65 to the draft. Picks 58 & 65 will give us enough points to match a bid on McFadyen from the beginning of the 3rd round with a minimal third round points deficit to carry over to our 2019 third round pick, and from pick 39 and back outright. Pick 58 will get chewed up, and pick 65 moves to the very end of the draft. Which means we could still use that end of draft pick to match a bid on Keidan Coleman from pick 56 and back.

So we walk out of the draft with Sam Walsh, Connor McFadyen and Keidan Coleman.


Our list is getting to the point where we finally have a little semblance of depth beyond our best 22, with a number of kids fighting to make the first team or cement a first team spot, in Jack Payne and Sam Skinner as key defenders. Cedric Cox and Mitchell Hinge as small defenders. Ben Keays, Jacob Allison, Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey and Corey Lyons in the midfield. And Connor Ballenden, Brandon Starcevich and Toby Wooler up forward. We're still a little light on for key position forwards.

Not counting Tom Fullarton and James Madden, as they are still very much project players, until we have some idea of their possible career trajectory after next season.

You add in one high end draft pick (Sam Walsh) and two later draft picks, that's still a lot of kids in the 0 to 4 years bracket trying to crack the what I would imagine to be a fairly stable first team, barring injuries. Will make for a pretty young, and hopefully competitive NEAFL team.

I can certainly see players such as Matt Eagles, Mitch Robinson (if re-signed), Allen Christensen and Sam Mayes being in and out of the first team, and looked as more senior depth players than automatic first team selections.

Nice work briztoon. I would be happy with this scenario

 

[briztoon]

Also the possibility of an end of first round PP. What are our chances? That pick could be used as part of a trade up or to draft someone like Berry. Or we may have to trade it for a mature age player - Sam Collins perhaps.

I would be staggered if we had to trade up to draft Berry jr.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I would be staggered if we had to trade up to draft Berry jr.

Part of a trade up to get Walsh or used to draft Berry

 

[briztoon]

Part of a trade up to get Walsh or used to draft Berry

My bad I missed reading the or in your op.

Also the possibility of an end of first round PP. What are our chances? That pick could be used as part of a trade up or to draft someone like Berry. Or we may have to trade it for a mature age player - Sam Collins perhaps.

I initially read it as "...trade up to draft someone like Berry".

An end of first round priority pick would certainly be handy currency to try and trade up for Walsh if we wanted pick 1 or 2. Might even be a better package than what Adelaide could offer if Carlton or Gold Coast value our pick 5 much more than Adelaide's pick 9.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

When you listen to Twomey he quite often jokes and/or intimates that he doesn't want to be on the show. Doesn't come across as a professional draft crop analyzer dedicated to his craft IMO.

I think you're a bit off the mark on that one. Pretty sure the podcast itself was Cal's initiative - he had this passion for the draft years ago before it had quite reached these levels and wanted to carve out a niche for himself in it.

He's a laidback and self-deprecating guy, but I wouldn't take that as meaning the draft isn't his passion.

If anything, I think he's maybe become a bit sick of dealing with amateur draft watchers thinking they know what they're talking about nonstop in his Twitter feed, and perhaps that feeds through to his attitude to his work now. But to suggest he's not interested in it or doesn't put his heart into the work isn't correct I don't think. I take his word on the draft above any other journo now that Emma Quayle has gone into clubland.

 

[M Malice]

I think you're a bit off the mark on that one. Pretty sure the podcast itself was Cal's initiative - he had this passion for the draft years ago before it had quite reached these levels and wanted to carve out a niche for himself in it.

He's a laidback and self-deprecating guy, but I wouldn't take that as meaning the draft isn't his passion.

If anything, I think he's maybe become a bit sick of dealing with amateur draft watchers thinking they know what they're talking about nonstop in his Twitter feed, and perhaps that feeds through to his attitude to his work now. But to suggest he's not interested in it or doesn't put his heart into the work isn't correct I don't think. I take his word on the draft above any other journo now that Emma Quayle has gone into clubland.

Fair enough, I could have read him wrong, just comes across to me as a bit flippant.

 

[briztoon]

Fair enough, I could have read him wrong, just comes across to me as a bit flippant.

I wouldn't say flippant. I was thinking he sounds a little jaded.

He doesn't have a broad formula to work with, so doing a weekly podcast seems to get pretty repetitive these days. He also works for the AFL, so can't say everything he hears or sees, or be critical of all decisions or decision makers.

I do believe he relies a lot on what he hears from club land recruiters sometimes, rather than forming his own opinions.

I think you're a bit off the mark on that one. Pretty sure the podcast itself was Cal's initiative - he had this passion for the draft years ago before it had quite reached these levels and wanted to carve out a niche for himself in it.

He's a laidback and self-deprecating guy, but I wouldn't take that as meaning the draft isn't his passion.

If anything, I think he's maybe become a bit sick of dealing with amateur draft watchers thinking they know what they're talking about nonstop in his Twitter feed, and perhaps that feeds through to his attitude to his work now. But to suggest he's not interested in it or doesn't put his heart into the work isn't correct I don't think. I take his word on the draft above any other journo now that Emma Quayle has gone into clubland.

I read/listen a lot to Matt Balmer at Fox Footy, and the AFL Draft team, and would have them at least equal with Twomey.

 

[HARKER]

I read/listen a lot to Matt Balmer at Fox Footy, and the AFL Draft team, and would have them at least equal with Twomey.

I think he's much more attuned to things than Twomey is. I presume you know who he is, or at least who he was here?

Carlton won't be keen on trading the #1 unless it somehow finds a way of getting a very early pick and still able to take the player it wants; Walsh.
Somehow, given everyone knows what the other is doing, that may be very hard to orchestrate

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I wouldn't say flippant. I was thinking he sounds a little jaded.

He doesn't have a broad formula to work with, so doing a weekly podcast seems to get pretty repetitive these days. He also works for the AFL, so can't say everything he hears or sees, or be critical of all decisions or decision makers.

I do believe he relies a lot on what he hears from club land recruiters sometimes, rather than forming his own opinions.

His job isn't to do opinion pieces though, he's a journalist - his main job is to report news. So surely having those inside contacts within clubs elevates him above others who are merely speculating. I'm not making the call that he's got a great eye for talent and could move into being a recruiter, just that he's clearly quite passionate about the draft and covers it very well (as is seen by how accurate his phantom draft usually is each year). I think in many cases, Twomey acknowledges his shortcomings as a talent spotter - that's not really his job, after all.

It's worth noting that there has been an increasing trend over recent years of some fans getting a bit obsessive over the draft and thinking of themselves as experts. It's ended up in a situation where many draft watchers on here and other platforms talk as if they are authorities on the draft, even when many of them have never even seen any of the prospects live once let alone tracked them for years or met them in person.

It also results in draft night meltdowns where some people get furious about their club passing over players that amateur watchers rated highly (or selecting players they didn't rate highly), as if they know what they're talking about - when in reality, they don't. They have essentially as much understanding and insight into the drafting process as a fan yelling 'just kick it' does about our structures and coaching strategies.

I can understand why, in the face of years of dealing with uninformed people like that who think they know better than you, there may be an increased element of fatigue, disillusionment, or condescension in producing content for those people.

It's not dissimilar to the opinionated arrogance of fans that exists on the whole within footy, but it does seem particularly amplified around the draft. A lot of people love playing recruiter like it's a game and then start believing they've actually got a valid insight and opinion.

Should note, it's not a knock on you briztoon. Just something that I can imagine would be grinding for those who actually work in the industry.

 

[M Malice]

I must have it wrong, I thought Big Footy was all about uneducated, obtuse, self absorbed opinions, I shall back off.

 

[trikster]

Then we take pick 1 and picks 58 & 65 to the draft. Picks 58 & 65 will give us enough points to match a bid on McFadyen from the beginning of the 3rd round with a minimal third round points deficit to carry over to our 2019 third round pick, and from pick 39 and back outright. Pick 58 will get chewed up, and pick 65 moves to the very end of the draft. Which means we could still use that end of draft pick to match a bid on Keidan Coleman from pick 56 and back.

The risk in this is if McFadyen's name gets called in say the middle of the 2nd. The points deficit would (by my very rough math) move our second round pick in 2019 back about 9-10 spots.
And is Walsh that much better than Rozee, Hately, etc to warrant giving up a second plus moving back a round? (personally I don't think so)

 

[countryVicLion]

Certainly looks like an interesting trade and draft period ahead.

I can see us going with the four senior list delistings.

If we do bring in one delisted free agent, that leaves us with just three National Draft picks.

3rd and 4th round picks have little trade value, unless there is a team such as Fremantle who only have their first round pick, then nothing until the 5th round and do want to get back in to the middle of the draft. Or a club, such as Collingwood needs to add some picks/points to match bids on FS and/or NGA academy kids.

I could certainly see us considering packaging our first and second round picks to try and move up in the draft order to draft Sam Walsh. We could even offer our 1st, 2nd & 3rd round picks to Carlton for their 1st round and 4th round picks.

Then we take pick 1 and picks 58 & 65 to the draft. Picks 58 & 65 will give us enough points to match a bid on McFadyen from the beginning of the 3rd round with a minimal third round points deficit to carry over to our 2019 third round pick, and from pick 39 and back outright. Pick 58 will get chewed up, and pick 65 moves to the very end of the draft. Which means we could still use that end of draft pick to match a bid on Keidan Coleman from pick 56 and back.

So we walk out of the draft with Sam Walsh, Connor McFadyen and Keidan Coleman.


Our list is getting to the point where we finally have a little semblance of depth beyond our best 22, with a number of kids fighting to make the first team or cement a first team spot, in Jack Payne and Sam Skinner as key defenders. Cedric Cox and Mitchell Hinge as small defenders. Ben Keays, Jacob Allison, Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey and Corey Lyons in the midfield. And Connor Ballenden, Brandon Starcevich and Toby Wooler up forward. We're still a little light on for key position forwards.

Not counting Tom Fullarton and James Madden, as they are still very much project players, until we have some idea of their possible career trajectory after next season.

You add in one high end draft pick (Sam Walsh) and two later draft picks, that's still a lot of kids in the 0 to 4 years bracket trying to crack the what I would imagine to be a fairly stable first team, barring injuries. Will make for a pretty young, and hopefully competitive NEAFL team.

I can certainly see players such as Matt Eagles, Mitch Robinson (if re-signed), Allen Christensen and Sam Mayes being in and out of the first team, and looked as more senior depth players than automatic first team selections.

Like your thinking Briztoon but Thomas Berry a must have, he is everything that our club represents the young fella is a beauty and you guys haven’t seen it ever has other clubs he is the gem in the draft that is hidden


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I must have it wrong, I thought Big Footy was all about uneducated, obtuse, self absorbed opinions, I shall back off.

It is, and I retain the right to have mine. I can just imagine that all of this is quite taxing for those actually working in the industry to have to deal with from time to time.

 

[M Malice]

I haven't heard much re Casey Voss recently, anyone know how he's going?

 

[a mayes ing]

Like your thinking Briztoon but Thomas Berry a must have, he is everything that our club represents the young fella is a beauty and you guys haven’t seen it ever has other clubs he is the gem in the draft that is hidden


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I agree, hard at it footballer. We saw what happened when Berry was out one week and we looked toothless at the contest. Was played in defence for most of the season which was wierd as he is a midfielder who can go forward and kick goals. Hope we get him

 

[briztoon]

His job isn't to do opinion pieces though, he's a journalist - his main job is to report news. So surely having those inside contacts within clubs elevates him above others who are merely speculating. I'm not making the call that he's got a great eye for talent and could move into being a recruiter, just that he's clearly quite passionate about the draft and covers it very well (as is seen by how accurate his phantom draft usually is each year). I think in many cases, Twomey acknowledges his shortcomings as a talent spotter - that's not really his job, after all.

It's worth noting that there has been an increasing trend over recent years of part time fans getting a bit obsessive over the draft and thinking of themselves as experts. It's ended up in a situation where many draft watchers on here and other platforms talk as if they are authorities on the draft, even when many of them have never even seen any of the prospects live once let alone tracked them for years or met them in person.

It also results in draft night meltdowns where some people get furious about their club passing over players that amateur watchers rated highly (or selecting players they didn't rate highly), as if they know what they're talking about - when in reality, they don't. They have essentially as much understanding and insight into the drafting process as a fan yelling 'just kick it' does about our structures and coaching strategies.

I can understand why, in the face of years of dealing with uninformed people like that who think they know better than you, there may be an increased element of fatigue, disillusionment, or condescension in producing content for those people.

It's not dissimilar to the opinionated arrogance of fans that exists on the whole within footy, but it does seem particularly amplified around the draft. A lot of people love playing recruiter like it's a game and then start believing they've actually got a valid insight and opinion.

Should note, it's not a knock on you briztoon. Just something that I can imagine would be grinding for those who actually work in the industry.

No problem there PattyKwasagun, I've openly admitted many times much of what you said above very much applies to me. I have no allusions about who I am, even if I write or talk otherwise.

 

[briztoon]

The risk in this is if McFadyen's name gets called in say the middle of the 2nd. The points deficit would (by my very rough math) move our second round pick in 2019 back about 9-10 spots.
And is Walsh that much better than Rozee, Hately, etc to warrant giving up a second plus moving back a round? (personally I don't think so)

I might be way off here, and as discussed above I'm no expect, but I don't believe McFadyen's name will be called inside the top 30 picks. And if it is, our recruiters will have to way up the impact on our future second round pick.

We have seen in recent drafts, once we get past the first round, quite a few academy and FS kids do slide a bit to a fair bit in the draft.


In regards to Walsh, I was more speculating for the Walsh fans out there. The one BIG thing Walsh has going for him, is that he has publicly said he would have little problem moving interstate, that loyalty is very important to him, and he would look to sign an extension early in his career, oh and he's a self confessed Lions fan.

I'm one a small few here who rate Bailey Smith ahead of Walsh, and would hope Smith is available at our pick 5. I believe Smith would be a better fit for our current and future midfield than Walsh. However if we recruited a player such as Mitch Wallis, Walsh then suits our team needs better.

The one aspect in regards to Walsh that I am curious about, is whether his growth plates are still open or closed. He has a 16 year old brother who is already 200cm tall, so there is always the possibility for a late growth spurt for Walsh. I'm not thinking he'll grow to 200cm, but possibly 188cm to 193cm.

Is Walsh better than Rozee, Hately etc? Well that seems to be the overwhelming consensus from every draft watcher who writes about these kids and talks to recruiters. Walsh has had to most consistent season, continually putting up big numbers, of all the kids in this years draft, with possibly Hately having played a similar number of games, being the closest in consistency of the upper echelon of kids. But they are different types of mids.

 

[briztoon]

Like your thinking Briztoon but Thomas Berry a must have, he is everything that our club represents the young fella is a beauty and you guys haven’t seen it ever has other clubs he is the gem in the draft that is hidden


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Those of us who frequent the draft pages know all about Thomas Berry, having been indoctrinated by Bicks.

 

[briztoon]

I haven't heard much re Casey Voss recently, anyone know how he's going?

I was thinking exactly the same thing early today.

 

[M Malice]

I think there is a good chance we will end up with pick 3 (4 Lynch compo), you would think we are little chance of beating the Eagles with so much at stake for them and I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints beat the Kangaroos meaning they would leapfrog us.

 

[countryVicLion]

Those of us who frequent the draft pages know all about Thomas Berry, having been indoctrinated by Bicks.

Well you being the expert obviously don’t rate him?
I think you will be eating your words!!


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