List Mgmt. 2018 St Kilda Trade Thread Part 3

[Strahany]

You're right that adding Shiel alone won't make much difference. But when you add Shiel on top of Hanners and have Ratten and Harvey added to the coaching squad that's quite a different look to this year. We may not get to finals next year but there is little reason to believe we wouldnt be much improved and be much more appealing as a club to other players than if we stay the joke we are now.

I'm too pessimistic as a saints fan to believe Harves and Shiel are seriously interested in coming to us until I see it but we are halfway there with Ratten and Hanners and it's nice to dream for a bit

I agree with you, in that we would be improved by adding everyone you mentioned. I don’t think anyone could possibly argue otherwise. My point is that merely ‘getting better’ is not sufficient; rising up to 14th next year would be ‘getting better’, but of course is irrelevant.

We need to ‘get better’ to the extent that we’re challenging for a premiership.
Adding Shiel, Hannebery, et al. will be highly unlikely to make us a premiership contender in the next couple years, but will guarantee that our ability to add to the side will be severely restricted. Therefore, we would be relying almost entirely on internal development to bridge that gap and become a contender, yet every recent indicator points to this being highly unlikely.

I’d rather endure another year or two of this to give us the optimal chance of success, rather than a half-baked attempt which ultimately renders the past few years to be a futile struggle.

 

[CaptainRisky]

Shiel Hannebury Townsend Amon Kent

I mean it's different I'll give it that.

Now you know why they installed the high fences on the West Gate Bridge

 

[Bertha]

Something interesting to watch if you have a spare few minutes is this talk on behavioural economics, skip to 27:00 and it talks about trading picks in the NFL



I thought it was interesting the way he values a draft pick and also talks about the best performing clubs not paying for the over-valued picks, etc... whilst there's only rumour and innuendo going around at the moment

 

[Gromma]

Proof that you can go from dumbass spud to a very important player in
a short period of time if you have the right attitude![/]

Well he barracks for Hawthorn yeah? Gromma

With all due respect to his dad but Scrimshaw is very much the afterthought at this stage.

Honestly pick 25-40 equivalent is enough to get him.

The biggest surprise to me was the Brodie is willing to stay which is a complete 180 from what I was told in Juneish.

I think Simpsons Saint said something similar re Scrimshaws worth.

Its interesting the media sent a lot of people down a thought pathway in June that changed with Brodes 30 seconds after he was selected in the ones. He was staying from about late July as I understood it.

Funny how at times, things in reality, are completely different to what posters on here think and interesting how some draw their conclusions.

Im always baffled how a top 10 can be in the system for 2 years then rated lower than a completely untried 18 yo. Those 2 years are the most rapid development of their entire career IMO. Talls in particular need 3-4 years.

If you understand that kids develop their bodies and minds at a different rates and the size of the leap from U18 to pro, it then makes no sense at all that youd prefer an untried kid. Talent doesnt evaporate but opinions swing like a wind sock at the airport!

 

[Strahany]

I dont want to be rude to you but you and me don't have the amount of money that will be available for FA next year even if we get Shiel and Hanners. My guess is there will still be plenty. The other question is why haven't we been able to get a FA and what will change next year to get this magical FA anyway. Im suggesting the only change that may get us a FA is winning and getting Hanners and Shiel is a bloody good start to help us start winning. North are a current example of what winning does where as you are using an example of Judd which was way over 10 years ago and well before FA and players even in contract wanting to leave.

A long rebuild? Its already been about 5 years and if we were to get offered Shiel and we say no I will guess that could be the beginning of the end for Jack Steven. He will be thinking we have no idea. It will certainly be a slow rebuild.

Just out of interest what will one draft pick do to us this year in your opinion? How many games will we win? And why would a FA come to us next year if they haven't previously?

The AFL salary cap is $12.45M. Let’s assume that we have frontloaded our contracts so well that we will only scrape in for 80% without adding any extra players (and this would be a generous figure). Because of the “5% rule” we can spend 105% for the next two years so I’ll use that as our figure (which will skew results towards too much space, but it’s easier for the math).

25% of 12.45M is $3.1125M. So if we take some rough figures of three big contract needs:
Shiel ~1.2M
Hannebery ~800K
Gresham re-contract ~400K added to his current contract (already accounted for, hence only including the 400K extra).

So out of $3.1125M, we would have $712K left to cover any further acquisitions, and any further salary demands from players currently on the list who have improved. Keep in mind that this is accounting for a 105% spend which will only be for two years, so we will have even less to spend in ensuing years.
Other player acquisitions will likely have their salaries balanced out by the players we lose, so no change there. The only big contracts coming to an end are Steven, Bruce, and Armitage, all of which would have likely been frontloaded heavily, and two of which will be kept on (Armitage to retire).

Even if we spent all of that remaining money on a Free Agent, $712K is not enough to entice a good player across to a lowly bottom 4 team just because we added Shiel and Hannebery. We would still be looking at $1M+ which would require us to be sitting on a 75% spend. Accounting for leaving room to pay our improving players, and the only way we’d have enough cap space to get Shiel, Hannebery, and a Free Agent whilst retaining Gresh and others would mean we’d be sitting at a 65-70% salary cap spend going into this trade period.

Even the most astute list management would struggle to organise it this perfectly.

As for what adding another draft pick will do for us next year - mostly nothing. But I don’t want to avoid trading for Shiel because of what the drafted kid will do. Rather, I want to draft the kid because of what he *won’t* do, which is the fact that he will be an addition of quality without impairing our ability to add further quality. That is the burden that comes with Shiel, and is not what we’d be prepared to shoulder at this point in time. We’re just not good enough yet.

 

[JG22]

Sounds like Shiel almost certainly out the door.

Reckon Giants would be keen for him to come to us, who knows what he wants.

 

[CaptainRisky]

Played against Jack a couple times in cricket but beyond that don't know much about beyond he seems a decent kid albeit shy.

As long as he isn't potting GC or leaking info then see no harm. Old mate is just backing his kid and posting youtube clips. Pretty harmless.

I wasn't having a go at him just saying forums can be pretty nasty at times and im sure most dads wouldn't like reading shit posts about their son

 

[plugger66]

The AFL salary cap is $12.45M. Let’s assume that we have frontloaded our contracts so well that we will only scrape in for 80% without adding any extra players (and this would be a generous figure). Because of the “5% rule” we can spend 105% for the next two years so I’ll use that as our figure (which will skew results towards too much space, but it’s easier for the math).

25% of 12.45M is $3.1125M. So if we take some rough figures of three big contract needs:
Shiel ~1.2M
Hannebery ~800K
Gresham re-contract ~400K added to his current contract (already accounted for, hence only including the 400K extra).

So out of $3.1125M, we would have $712K left to cover any further acquisitions, and any further salary demands from players currently on the list who have improved. Keep in mind that this is accounting for a 105% spend which will only be for two years, so we will have even less to spend in ensuing years.
Other player acquisitions will likely have their salaries balanced out by the players we lose, so no change there. The only big contracts coming to an end are Steven, Bruce, and Armitage, all of which would have likely been frontloaded heavily, and two of which will be kept on (Armitage to retire).

Even if we spent all of that remaining money on a Free Agent, $712K is not enough to entice a good player across to a lowly bottom 4 team just because we added Shiel and Hannebery. We would still be looking at $1M+ which would require us to be sitting on a 75% spend. Accounting for leaving room to pay our improving players, and the only way we’d have enough cap space to get Shiel, Hannebery, and a Free Agent whilst retaining Gresh and others would mean we’d be sitting at a 65-70% salary cap spend going into this trade period.

Even the most astute list management would struggle to organise it this perfectly.

Forgetting a couple of things which I doubt we are using at the moment and they are the Promotional allowance of over 1 million dollars. Also many are saying Sydney are paying part of the Hanners contract. There could be another 1.5 million right there.

 

[Strahany]

So better to add one unproven player who could end up like McCartin and continue to overpay our players to get to 95% and then not get any magical FA because we are crap.

Either you’re completely failing to assess the situation beyond next season, or you’re putting in your normal trolling efforts.

We wouldn’t be overpaying our players; we would be frontloading Hannebery, Kent et al. so that we’re effectively postponing this salary cap space to next year. This is a very, very simple concept.

As I’ve said, burning excessive trade value and salary cap space on clutching for Shiel will effectively cement our list in place, such that the only improvements will come from internal development. Can’t trade or draft quality players in when GWS hold the picks, and can’t recruit Free Agents with all the cap space locked up (as I demonstrated in my other post with simple math).

The question is do you think Shiel and Hannebery with some added bit part players will make our list a genuine premiership contender. If yes, then of course we go for Shiel. If no, then going for him is a risk that we cannot afford to take, since we’d be banking on significant internal development which has not been forthcoming thus far.

You like to ask the question about what we’d do to lure a FA next year, and the answer is I don’t know. We have the chance at getting one, and need to work on that; hopefully, a combination of Hannebery talking to players and some promising youth will be enough, but I can’t know for certain.

So I’d like to pose a question to you; what do we do if we bring Shiel in, and find that our peak finishing has been in the 5-9 range? We can’t trade in other players, and we haven’t added further youth to develop underneath since those picks were traded for Shiel. And we can’t acquire any elite Free Agents because we’ve used up all of our cap. So what do we do? Nothing. That’s all we can do. That’s what I *do* know for certain.

Not getting Shiel runs us the risk of not improving any time soon, but it gives us a good chance at building a genuine contending side. Conversely, getting Shiel guarantees some level of improvement, but the likelihood of it being to a premiership level is slim, and it comes at the cost of guaranteeing we’re stuck in no man’s land for several years unless a lot of luck comes our way.

 

[bird_man]

Its interesting the media sent a lot of people down a thought pathway in June that changed with Brodes 30 seconds after he was selected in the ones. He was staying from about late July as I understood it.

Funny how at times, things in reality, are completely different to what posters on here think and interesting how some draw their conclusions.

Im always baffled how a top 10 can be in the system for 2 years then rated lower than a completely untried 18 yo. Those 2 years are the most rapid development of their entire career IMO. Talls in particular need 3-4 years.

If you understand that kids develop their bodies and minds at a different rates and the size of the leap from U18 to pro, it then makes no sense at all that youd prefer an untried kid. Talent doesnt evaporate but opinions swing like a wind sock at the airport!

Well said mate.

Now where's he going?

 

[blktreacle]

Something interesting to watch if you have a spare few minutes is this talk on behavioural economics, skip to 27:00 and it talks about trading picks in the NFL



I thought it was interesting the way he values a draft pick and also talks about the best performing clubs not paying for the over-valued picks, etc... whilst there's only rumour and innuendo going around at the moment

Just want to add a few points about how the draft-trade system is different in the nfl, which impacts the value of picks.
-Firstly trades are open from after the superbowl to about week 6
-can trade picks up to 3 years in advance
-drafted player's have to agree to sign a rookie contract, if they wont they can be traded (see eli manning)
-players who nominate for the draft who are not drafted can be signed as undrafted free agents
-teams carry into the preseason a roster of about 95 players and then cut it to 55 in time for the season proper- being drafted and signed doesnt necessarily garruntee that you are on the team.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Human Person]

I wonder if GWS want lonie as part of the Shiel trade (assuming he wants to come to us)? Where already offering him overs, we may need to offer it to them as well.

I've been a big Shiel fan since the beginning, I know he's not exactly Danger or Fyfe quality, but he's defiantly A-grade. He consistently does his job in the middle to a high level, and in odd games he pulls off some amazing things.

Paying overs for him is probably the only thing we can do at this stage to finally land a big fish and make us relevant in the trading game.

Townsend would be a great upgrade to Weller, Kent can help out from the interchange, going forward when needed and heading to the wing to provide some extra speed.

I'm not entirely sure where Amon sits in the grand scheme of things, but at least we're hear to play this year at the trade table.

 

[Darkhour]

If you

Rather ironic, given that pulling Shiel is the path of instant gratification; the obtuse view.

Pray tell what the “bigger picture” is, exactly? How do you propose you improve a list that has no first round picks to trade with, and no salary cap space to lure a free agent? Do we ask the other teams to let us have one of their players with a “pretty please and a cherry on top”?

I’ve made a contention; adding Shiel, Hannebery, and whichever other small acquisitions will not make us a contender, and our inability to add any further players will seriously harm us. Unless you have any intention to refute this contention and open some dialogue instead of sniping, then keep to yourself.

If you had been paying attention and reading other people's posts including my own, you would already know the answer to your own question and the 'bigger picture'...

 

[DGontheQT]

Rather ironic, given that pulling Shiel is the path of instant gratification; the obtuse view.

Someone has been watching Shawshank Redemption again. Saying the warden was "obtuse" got Andy Duframe , a month in the hole.
We might have to give you a month in a hole …….. Frankston.

 

[SaintersUnite]

I think Scrimmy deserves to go to the club he wants to, where he feels will be the best fit for him where he can get the most out of himself and get some senior game time. Hopefully if we show our interest, he comes to Moorabbin and likes our new facilities enough to seriously consider us. I also think he’d be much more likely to get game time with us than he would at the Hawks.

 

[plugger66]

Either you’re completely failing to assess the situation beyond next season, or you’re putting in your normal trolling efforts.

We wouldn’t be overpaying our players; we would be frontloading Hannebery, Kent et al. so that we’re effectively postponing this salary cap space to next year. This is a very, very simple concept.

As I’ve said, burning excessive trade value and salary cap space on clutching for Shiel will effectively cement our list in place, such that the only improvements will come from internal development. Can’t trade or draft quality players in when GWS hold the picks, and can’t recruit Free Agents with all the cap space locked up (as I demonstrated in my other post with simple math).

The question is do you think Shiel and Hannebery with some added bit part players will make our list a genuine premiership contender. If yes, then of course we go for Shiel. If no, then going for him is a risk that we cannot afford to take, since we’d be banking on significant internal development which has not been forthcoming thus far.

You like to ask the question about what we’d do to lure a FA next year, and the answer is I don’t know. We have the chance at getting one, and need to work on that; hopefully, a combination of Hannebery talking to players and some promising youth will be enough, but I can’t know for certain.

So I’d like to pose a question to you; what do we do if we bring Shiel in, and find that our peak finishing has been in the 5-9 range? We can’t trade in other players, and we haven’t added further youth to develop underneath since those picks were traded for Shiel. And we can’t acquire any elite Free Agents because we’ve used up all of our cap. So what do we do? Nothing. That’s all we can do. That’s what I *do* know for certain.

Not getting Shiel runs us the risk of not improving any time soon, but it gives us a good chance at building a genuine contending side. Conversely, getting Shiel guarantees some level of improvement, but the likelihood of it being to a premiership level is slim, and it comes at the cost of guaranteeing we’re stuck in no man’s land for several years unless a lot of luck comes our way.

Firstly I don't troll. Unless its an obvious joke I write what I believe and in this case I don't even understand what the issue is in getting shiel.

Ok I will try and answer some of your questions. Firstly never said adding those 2 players will make us premiership contenders. What I have said it will improve us hopefully enough to attract this magical FA that we haven't previously attracted as North look to have done this year. Second question if we got Shiel and only got to 5-9 range well that would be ok by me if that is the only player we got but as I pointed out to you in another post you maybe missing another 1.5 million to allow us more players plus the draft plus the confidence and better training methods these good successful players bring.

Finally I don't understand how not getting Shiel helps us in anyway apart from keeping pick 4 in one draft because unlike you I don't think we will have SC issues and unlike you I don't think a poor side like us will attract any class FA.

 

[Strahany]

Forgetting a couple of things which I doubt we are using at the moment and they are the Promotional allowance of over 1 million dollars. Also many are saying Sydney are paying part of the Hanners contract. There could be another 1.5 million right there.

Sydney are trading Hannebery for cap relief. Unless you propose coughing up our future second round pick for him, then we’ll be covering the entirety (or effectively the entirety) of his salary. If Sydney do cover any, it won’t be over half (500K) as you suggest with these frivolous numbers.

As for the Additional Services Agreement, that would add a hair over $1M/year. So that $712K of space becomes $1.734M for the two years we can spend 105%, before dropping down to $1.112M in the following years. This is all assuming that we don’t use it at all, at this point in time, and that we’ve done a good job to keep the cap spend to 80% going into this trade period. That would mean ~$1M going to a Free Agent would leave use with $734K spare for two years, and only $112K spare thereafter; nowhere near enough to account for increased salary demands as our players get older. So even in that arguably best case scenario, it doesn’t leave us with sufficient room to get another FA.

 

[Yawkey way]

Its interesting the media sent a lot of people down a thought pathway in June that changed with Brodes 30 seconds after he was selected in the ones. He was staying from about late July as I understood it.

Funny how at times, things in reality, are completely different to what posters on here think and interesting how some draw their conclusions.

Im always baffled how a top 10 can be in the system for 2 years then rated lower than a completely untried 18 yo. Those 2 years are the most rapid development of their entire career IMO. Talls in particular need 3-4 years.

If you understand that kids develop their bodies and minds at a different rates and the size of the leap from U18 to pro, it then makes no sense at all that youd prefer an untried kid. Talent doesnt evaporate but opinions swing like a wind sock at the airport!

That’s just how it is gromma if your selected early it’s pretty much hit the ground running or be judged harshly.

I have no idea who’s interested or what their prepared to pay but I would be having a really good look at where jack is most likely to play senior football. I think he would be a good fit at the saints, we desperately need players with good skills who can hit a target and there are genuinely spots up for grabs at senior level.

 

[Human Person]

Its interesting the media sent a lot of people down a thought pathway in June that changed with Brodes 30 seconds after he was selected in the ones. He was staying from about late July as I understood it.

Funny how at times, things in reality, are completely different to what posters on here think and interesting how some draw their conclusions.

Im always baffled how a top 10 can be in the system for 2 years then rated lower than a completely untried 18 yo. Those 2 years are the most rapid development of their entire career IMO. Talls in particular need 3-4 years.

If you understand that kids develop their bodies and minds at a different rates and the size of the leap from U18 to pro, it then makes no sense at all that youd prefer an untried kid. Talent doesnt evaporate but opinions swing like a wind sock at the airport!

With little knowledge of Scrim I can say honestly that he appeals to me as utility. With Gilbert gone we don't really have one at the moment, and good sides need someone to fill that role, otherwise we keep doing things like throwing Bruce back and losing a forward, or throwing Carlise forward and losing out best intercept defender.

Your boy has height, athleticism, and talent, whether it comes together remains to be seen, but I can definitely see a reason for our recruiters to take a punt on him. After all we were willing to take a chance on Freezer.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Rather ironic, given that pulling Shiel is the path of instant gratification; the obtuse view.

Pray tell what the “bigger picture” is, exactly? How do you propose you improve a list that has no first round picks to trade with, and no salary cap space to lure a free agent? Do we ask the other teams to let us have one of their players with a “pretty please and a cherry on top”?

I’ve made a contention; adding Shiel, Hannebery, and whichever other small acquisitions will not make us a contender, and our inability to add any further players will seriously harm us. Unless you have any intention to refute this contention and open some dialogue instead of sniping, then keep to yourself.

You're making a big and, as far as I know, incorrect statement about Shiel's contract eating up all of our cap room.

We have paid a lot of current contracts in advance, we have 'banked' cap space (that we lose this season), we have delisted a number of players, we haven't had to pay overs to re-contract anyone in the past year and the TPP went up significantly 12 months ago (which stuffed our chances of getting a FA).

As a few others have suggested, getting Shiel in will certainly help make us a better team. Instant gratification? Maybe. What an improvement will do is make us a more attractive destination for FA's and OOC's. Don't forget how many Giants are FA's next season... get Shiel in now, improve and you never know.

What we do know 100% is what another bottom 3 finish will mean. No FA's and no choice but to continue the rebuild through the draft (and most likely lose players OOC next season such as Gresham and Billings).

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Agreed. They get rid of Lobb and Setterfield before getting unders for Shiel.

That won't clear their cap headache though.

 

[Barrels]

Wheres Stuv? Geelong?

Who’s the bloke on the wing then...

 

[Strahany]

If you


If you had been paying attention and reading other people's posts including my own, you would already know the answer to your own question and the 'bigger picture'...

I have been reading the posts you allude to, and they’re the reason why I’ve been saying what I have.

Since you don’t want to address my points, I’ll ask you some direct questions.

Do you think that adding Shiel, Hannebery, and the bit part players will make us a premiership contender over the next few years? If yes, then there’s your reason for wanting Shiel; fair enough.

If not, then, apart from internal development, how do you propose we improve this side when we will have no first round picks (or 1 downgraded one) for two years, and insuffficient cap space to recruit another elite player?

 

[DGontheQT]

FMD , who said we aren't a destination club , we sure are but only for Sh-t Trucks

We are "Leading the Race" for many of these Sh-t trucks according to the media.
If I hear "Leading the Race" one more time , I'll lose it.

 

[Strahany]

You're making a big and, as far as I know, incorrect statement about Shiel's contract eating up all of our cap room.

We have paid a lot of current contracts in advance, we have 'banked' cap space (that we lose this season), we have delisted a number of players, we haven't had to pay overs to re-contract anyone in the past year and the TPP went up significantly 12 months ago (which stuffed our chances of getting a FA).

As a few others have suggested, getting Shiel in will certainly help make us a better team. Instant gratification? Maybe. What an improvement will do is make us a more attractive destination for FA's and OOC's. Don't forget how many Giants are FA's next season... get Shiel in now, improve and you never know.

What we do know 100% is what another bottom 3 finish will mean. No FA's and no choice but to continue the rebuild through the draft (and most likely lose players OOC next season such as Gresham and Billings).

See my reply to one of Plugger’s posts. I showed the math based on fair estimates; numbers don’t lie.