Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[AB_Blue]

kerridge was a ball butcherer who played the odd outstanding game - do people actually go to games anymore? the hindsight if only list gets longer and more ridiculous by the minute..........

I had high hopes for him when he arrived.

I would have given him another year.

We went borderline Melbourne with the cutting of experienced players and we all know you never go full Melbourne!


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[BLUEALLTHRU]

Tough gig list management. Harder than coaching I reckon. Damned if you do and damned if you dont.

I refer to Jimmae , Arr0w and HARKER due to their experience and time on their hands on this topic.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

ripping post!

I knew I'd done well but.. Stop it I'm blushing.

 

[Macca43]

Fisher has been running at 55.9 kicking efficiency, Dow 45.7 this year, thats a huge difference

Over their careers

Fisher 54 .9, Dow 49.3

Think that is a clear indication

That is this year, I am comparing the second years of their careers, 2019 Dow V 2018 Fisher.

You would expect an extra year in the system to improve his fitness which improves the ability to hit targets.

I would say that even at 55.9% kicking efficiency it is hardly evidence of top quality kicking skills.

Also if we apply those averages to their actual kicking average for their second year, the difference is just over 1 more effective kick a game for Fisher, 5.6 to 4.11. Not exactly a "huge" difference.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

^^^^ forgot about you

 

[BlueView]

That is this year, I am comparing the second years of their careers, 2019 Dow V 2018 Fisher.

You would expect an extra year in the system to improve his fitness which improves the ability to hit targets.

I would say that even at 55.9% kicking efficiency it is hardly evidence of top quality kicking skills.

Also if we apply those averages to their actual kicking average for their second year, the difference is just over 1 more effective kick a game for Fisher, 5.6 to 4.11. Not exactly a "huge" difference.

Surely Macca there’s other possible factors, potentially these stats are skewed such as a players willingness to play it safe and another’s willingness to to take the risky kick. Just from watching Dow rarely does he open up play through the middle where as SPS does, I haven’t seen Dow hit to many forwards on the lead this year either whereas I have with Fisher, not saying his kicking won’t improve but I don’t think the stats tell the full story. Fisher looks the much better user

 

[jooce8891]

Is owies going to receive another year on rookie list or will he get the flick ?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

if he gets de listed at the end of the year i'll vomit everywhere...

 

[Macca43]

Surely Macca there’s other possible factors, potentially these stats are skewed such as a players willingness to play it safe and another’s willingness to to take the risky kick. Just from watching Dow rarely does he open up play through the middle where as SPS does, I haven’t seen Dow hit to many forwards on the lead this year either whereas I have with Fisher, not saying his kicking won’t improve but I don’t think the stats tell the full story. Fisher looks the much better user

Not claiming they do tell the whole story, simply observing that it is interesting that polar opposite view people have of the two players given how close they are statistically.

 

[lpolglaze]

Who out of last year's draft are going well or better than Dow right now? Cerra, Brayshaw, Uniacke and Raynor are all struggling. (Raynor had three possessions last week in a winning team) Keep in mind Dow had a interrupted preseason and it's being asked to play a lot of midfield minutes. I'm not concerned at all about Dow.

Not to mention not many of them are playing quite the role in the midfield he has been.

 

[Accidental genius]

Another interesting fact I read on afl.com.au is that one Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti is coming out of contract at years end and is not even close to resigning yet.

Might a diligent football club that is crying out for a small forward of his calibre get in his managers shell like and make an offer worth considering or even one that might just be to good to pass up.

Would be nice to have him roaming our forward 50 next year or providing some electric, line breaking speed from half back, um thems some tasty food for thought Blues fans.

And here’s a little after meal treat, it would break the Essendopers little hearts.
Edit: And there tiny little testies from the doping.

He is a phenomenal player...can’t see him moving away from *.

 

[Arr0w]

That is this year, I am comparing the second years of their careers, 2019 Dow V 2018 Fisher.

You would expect an extra year in the system to improve his fitness which improves the ability to hit targets.

I would say that even at 55.9% kicking efficiency it is hardly evidence of top quality kicking skills.

Also if we apply those averages to their actual kicking average for their second year, the difference is just over 1 more effective kick a game for Fisher, 5.6 to 4.11. Not exactly a "huge" difference.

I never said Fisher's foot skills are currently elite, all I was pointing out, it is better than Dow's and I believe it will remain that way for their careers. I also doubt you would find many footballer watchers that would suggest Dow is a better kick than Fisher

Kicking efficiency stats are almost impossible to gain an accurate picture

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained

"A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession"

The above would also explain why Dangerfield''s kicking efficiency of 57.2%, seems higher than the eye test

Dow's kicking will improve, but like many that play with similar traits it will never be elite, yet the other characteristics he brings is what will make him valuable in time

 

[Macca43]

I never said Fisher's foot skills are currently elite, all I was pointing out, it is better than Dow's and I believe it will remain that way for their careers. I also doubt you would find many footballer watchers that would suggest Dow is a better kick than Fisher

Kicking efficiency stats are almost impossible to gain an accurate picture

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-12-28/stats-glossary-every-stat-explained

"A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession"

The above would also explain why Dangerfield''s kicking efficiency of 57.2%, seems higher than the eye test

Dow's kicking will improve, but like many that play with similar traits it will never be elite, yet the other characteristics he brings is what will make him valuable in time

And I never said that Dow's kicking was better than Fishers, simply that in their Dow's is a lot closer to Fishers than people perceive. Just like all the other stats from their second year.

 

[true blue19]

Must be the only time Nathan Brown has made any sense to a Carlton supporter.

He did say he is a Carlton supporter

 

[Soapy V]

I don’t have an issue with Fisher or Dows foot skills at all. Once they get the experience confidence and support it will all click.

 

[Arr0w]

And I never said that Dow's kicking was better than Fishers, simply that in their Dow's is a lot closer to Fishers than people perceive. Just like all the other stats from their second year.

No doubt Dow is close, but still not to the level of Fisher. Below 30 facets, Dow breakeven in 1 (blue), ahead in 10 (green), behind in 19 (yellow)

 

[Macca43]

No doubt Dow is close, but still not to the level of Fisher. Below 30 facets, Dow breakeven in 1 (blue), ahead in 10 (green), behind in 19 (yellow)

View attachment 678749

Look at the margins, .11 inside 50's, .34 clearances, .12 1%ers, .76 contested possessions. They are very close which jars with the way people are responding. Last year everyone was raving about how great Fisher was, this year everyone is wanting Dow dropped - yet they are performing at very similar levels.

And Dow has had kicked more points which would make it 18-11 (or at the very lest you combine goals and behinds into scoring shots and call it 18-10)

 

[blue healer]

Holman looked like someone with some mongrel after Barker took over. But at the time it didnt take much to look like it. We were a rabble . However he didnt really show it after that and I guess SOS was in first stage culling mode doing what he was brought in to do.
Holman is handy at the moment but I think when we hit our straps theres no way he would get a game.

I'd confidently predict that there are players getting a game now who will not get one when we hit our straps.

I have no real thoughts on Holman or Gowers, not worried about history beyond last year. But what I do think is that (and this is not with the wisdom of retrospect, I said it during trade week) we should not have de-listed Kerridge and Lamb.

We told everyone that we were looking to increase our numbers of mature, bigger bodied players, a fact that was also recognised by the AFL in granting us free hits at experienced players from the feeder comps.

Both Kerridge and Lamb were contributing in AFL which is far more than can be said of Goddard, for instance, who wasn't and was de-listed by a team who were no better than us. Both these players would be very handy at the moment and, whilst I can't say that they would be, I'd say IMO they should be getting a game now if they were still on the list.

Pretty sure our average age hasn't increased this year (allowing for the fact that every existing player is a year older) and I'm also pretty sure that we have less mature, bigger bodied players than we had last year.

We seem to be running to an internal rule that we must average around 14 list changes per year, I've not seen the AFL rule that says we must.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I don’t have an issue with Fisher or Dows foot skills at all. Once they get the experience confidence and support it will all click.

It will be interesting to see their progression. Fisher's kick looks a little more compact and has potential to improve a heap. I picture Peter Bell in the future, was an below average kick that improved and knew his limitations.
Dow maybe has the Fyfe and Dangerfield kicking skills, never going to be amazing, just hopefully can handle inside contest more and have time to compose himself.

 

[Arr0w]

Look at the margins, .11 inside 50's, .34 clearances, .12 1%ers, .76 contested possessions. They are very close which jars with the way people are responding. Last year everyone was raving about how great Fisher was, this year everyone is wanting Dow dropped - yet they are performing at very similar levels.

And Dow has had kicked more points which would make it 18-11 (or at the very lest you combine goals and behinds into scoring shots and call it 18-10)

Macca I don't think Dow should be dropped, he adds other things to the side while he can build and develop his weaknesses like most young kids

But no matter how you cut it, whether by eye or the stats, Fisher has him covered, for now

Anyway, looking forward to see what type of player we add to the list on Monday

 

[Macca43]

Macca I don't think Dow should be dropped, he adds other things to the side while he can build and develop his weaknesses like most young kids

But no matter how you cut it, whether by eye or the stats, Fisher has him covered, for now

Anyway, looking forward to see what type of player we add to the list on Monday

You, and I, seem in the minority if you read the posters here regarding Dow being dropped and it isn't about who is in front, it is their closeness compared to the chasm between the way most are reacting to them. The point was regarding people's perceptions not about who is/was better.

I have never said Dow was in front, simply that he was close. And I have never said you wanted him dropped just that a lot of people do. Once again you are building that straw man like a champion.

 

[Blue and Blue]

I'd confidently predict that there are players getting a game now who will not get one when we hit our straps.

I have no real thoughts on Holman or Gowers, not worried about history beyond last year. But what I do think is that (and this is not with the wisdom of retrospect, I said it during trade week) we should not have de-listed Kerridge and Lamb.

We told everyone that we were looking to increase our numbers of mature, bigger bodied players, a fact that was also recognised by the AFL in granting us free hits at experienced players from the feeder comps.

Both Kerridge and Lamb were contributing in AFL which is far more than can be said of Goddard, for instance, who wasn't and was de-listed by a team who were no better than us. Both these players would be very handy at the moment and, whilst I can't say that they would be, I'd say IMO they should be getting a game now if they were still on the list.

Pretty sure our average age hasn't increased this year (allowing for the fact that every existing player is a year older) and I'm also pretty sure that we have less mature, bigger bodied players than we had last year.

We seem to be running to an internal rule that we must average around 14 list changes per year, I've not seen the AFL rule that says we must.

Good stuff there blue.
All I can say is that either its a full rebuild or partial. I think the full rebuild has to be about talent above everything and we can see thats whats happened. A Lamb might help on occasions but thats not the path chosen. Kerridge?...No.
The trouble is if you keep one you have to keep them all. And then you dont have a Newman and a McGovern etc who are miles better than those guys.

 

[Arr0w]

You, and I, seem in the minority if you read the posters here regarding Dow being dropped and it isn't about who is in front, it is their closeness compared to the chasm between the way most are reacting to them. The point was regarding people's perceptions not about who is/was better.

I have never said Dow was in front, simply that he was close. And I have never said you wanted him dropped just that a lot of people do. Once again you are building that straw man like a champion.

Macca, I thought we were having a respectful debate about Dow and Fisher, but for some reason you like so many others descend into personal attacks if someone has differing opinions and or like in this case, facts.

But, from here on end I know exactly where you belong

 

[footyfan1978]

wut?

This is what will be on your tombstone

 

[Macca43]

Macca, I thought we were having a respectful debate about Dow and Fisher, but for some reason you like so many others descend into personal attacks if someone has differing opinions and or like in this case, facts.

But, from here on end I know exactly where you belong

We in fact have the same opinion and the same facts - you are just creating a "debate" by arguing a different topic to the statement I am making, which is the definition of a strawman.

I have repeatedly stated that Dow and Fishers second year stats are close, which jars with peoples perceptions, yet you continue to try to make the case that Fisher is/was ahead of Dow - which is irrelevant as it is not in contention.

 

[Arr0w]

We in fact have the same opinion and the same facts - you are just creating a "debate" by arguing a different topic to the statement I am making, which is the definition of a strawman.

I have repeatedly stated that Dow and Fishers second year stats are close, which jars with peoples perceptions, yet you continue to try to make the case that Fisher is/was ahead of Dow - which is irrelevant as it is not in contention.

Macca I will start responding in kind if you keep going, move on