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2019 planning

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SHEEDS BOMBER FOREVER said:
Good way to start. Do you have a Guns and Rookie guide your going buy. Mine was roughly this:
Defenders: 2 Premiums, 1/2 Mid-priced, 2 rookies
Midfielders: 3/4 Prem, 1/2 Mid, 3 rookies
Rucks: Grundy, who ever you think (the biggest headache amongst teams this pre-season is what to do with R2)
Forwards: 2/3 Prem, 1 Mid, 3 rookies
Bench: Fill with 170K rookies.

This was the general guide I went with when selecting my team.
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Yah my plan is something like:

11-12 premo, 3-4 midpricer, 15 rookies

Similar to you:
Defence: 3 premo, 1 midprice, 2 rookies
Midfield: 4 premo, 1 midprice, 3 rookies
Ruck: Grundy, ??
Forwards: 3 premo, Setterfield, 2 rookies

Something like that
 
Keystone agony said:
Yeh but to upgrade a rookie to a premium will cost 2 trades whereas upgrading a midpricer/just under premium will only take 1 trade
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Well, it will still take two trades unless the Mid Pricer exceeds the price of the premium. While there are cirucmstances where you might have a "kitty" left over from a previous trade, I would consider those circumstances are not the norm.

Generally, you will still need 100-200k to upgrade a midpricer averaging 90 to a premium averaging 105.

Therefore, you will most likely still need to do another trade to net you that 100-200k. While some rookie downgrades may net you 300-400k asllowing you to upgrade multiple mid pricers, there will generally only be a handful of those every year and it's no guarantee you'll have that sort of kitty at the time youneed to upgrade Milera for example.

Additionally, with neale and Whitfield, you shouldn't need to upgrade them at all, so they're "trade" cost is zero. As opposed to Milera and Crouch's which is still most likely 2, or maybe, if you were being generous one and a half.

Those two lists taken at the number of trades necessary to reach full premium status is:
Option A - two trades (Rookie down, Rozee up)
Option B - four to six trades (Rookie down, Rookie down, Crouch up, Milera up, maybe even Heeney up).
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Well, it will still take two trades unless the Mid Pricer exceeds the price of the premium. While there are cirucmstances where you might have a "kitty" left over from a previous trade, I would consider those circumstances are not the norm.

Generally, you will still need 100-200k to upgrade a midpricer averaging 90 to a premium averaging 105.

Therefore, you will most likely still need to do another trade to net you that 100-200k. While some rookie downgrades may net you 300-400k asllowing you to upgrade multiple mid pricers, there will generally only be a handful of those every year and it's no guarantee you'll have that sort of kitty at the time youneed to upgrade Milera for example.

Additionally, with neale and Whitfield, you shouldn't need to upgrade them at all, so they're "trade" cost is zero. As opposed to Milera and Crouch's which is still most likely 2, or maybe, if you were being generous one and a half.

Those two lists taken at the number of trades necessary to reach full premium status is:
Option A - two trades (Rookie down, Rozee up)
Option B - four to six trades (Rookie down, Rookie down, Crouch up, Milera up, maybe even Heeney up).
Click to expand...

But if your saying Rozees gonna get you 300-400k then that one downgrade and then you can upgrade both B.Crouch and Milera quite comfortable and probably still have something left on top of that. So really only 3 trades
 

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Keystone agony said:
But if your saying Rozees gonna get you 300-400k then that one downgrade and then you can upgrade both B.Crouch and Milera quite comfortable and probably still have something left on top of that. So really only 3 trades
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But you don't have Rozee in that scenario... It was an option one or option two.
 
0.0% ownership for Jack Darling on DTLIVE, bit surprising. I guess Tom J Lynch is probably more appealing though.
 
Keystone agony said:
Well whichever rookie you want it to be. ie Rookie A

Rookie A - Goes up 300-400k
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Alright well let's add Rookie A to the equation:

Option A: Whitfield (lock) Neale (lock) Rozee (+300k trade), Rookie A (+300k trade)

Option B: Milera (+ 100k trade) B. Crouch (+150k trade) Heeney (maybe trade), Rookie A (+300k trade).

For simplicities sake lets say Whitfield and Neale are locks for Top 6 and Top 8 midfield respective, alternatively you can do it with any other premium you like around that price.

In Option A you have Whitfeild and Neale who are already locked in, you need to upgrade your Rozee and Rookie A (assuming Rookie A is on field). In Option B you have to upgrade Milera and Crouch as well as upgrading Rookie A. You may also need to pgrade Heeney but that is likely going to be a luxury trade as Heeney will probably be in the 6-9 range of premium forwards.

An uber premium Midfielder and Defender are likely to be at least 100k more expensive than the heights Miler and Crouch reach. Therefore you need a kitty of about 200k.

So you trade Rookie A down to a basement price and net yourself 300k. You spend that on turning Miler and Crouch into Neale and Whitfield. After three trades the Options now look like this.

Option A (zero trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Rozee and Rookie A
Option B (three trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Heeney and Rookie B

Let's look at Option A's options. They downgrade Rookie A to a basement and use the 300k to turn Rozee into an uber premium in the forward line, lets say Dander.

Option A (two trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Dangerfield, Rookie B
Option B (three trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Heeney, Rookie B

We not see that there are only two differences between the two sides. The first is that one has Danger, likely to average 10 points more than Heeney. The other is that they have only used two trades. This means that when it comes to upgrading Rookie B, they will have one more cash making opportunity than Option B person.

Despite the fact that Milera and Crouch may make a bit of money, there is a cost in realising that money requiring you to trade them out. Additionally, while Milera, Crouch and Heeney may score more than Whitfield, Neale and Rozee over the first ten weeks on average. By the time you upgrade Rozee to Dangerfield, you're making up that difference in the back half of the season while consolidating elsewhere.

Option A for mine.
 
Rendaw said:
I started last year with Gawn and Martin. It wasnt a bad choice but was 20 points per round off the best choice. An extra 460 points added onto my total score would have helped me a lot.

Last year I used the logic that by cheaping out on rucks I could spend more elsewhere but after round 1 I realised that it didnt matter because I had to fix a bunch of my picks that I used the extra money on.

Grundy has been top 2 for the last 3 years and Gawn has been top 2 for 2 out of the last 3 years. Getting the top 2 correct gives you a huge advantage and the only way Gawn and Grundy wont be top 2 if is they get injured.
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You had 23 rounds to switch Martin to Grundy. At the start of the season Grundy was $45,000 and 6 pts (avge) more expensive than Martin; after 8 rounds Grundy was 68 pts or 8.5 pts on avge ahead of Martin. I don't think Martin was a great problem at that point he very much held his own but you did have to change and it became pretty obvious, pretty soon.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Alright well let's add Rookie A to the equation:

Option A: Whitfield (lock) Neale (lock) Rozee (+300k trade), Rookie A (+300k trade)

Option B: Milera (+ 100k trade) B. Crouch (+150k trade) Heeney (maybe trade), Rookie A (+300k trade).

For simplicities sake lets say Whitfield and Neale are locks for Top 6 and Top 8 midfield respective, alternatively you can do it with any other premium you like around that price.

In Option A you have Whitfeild and Neale who are already locked in, you need to upgrade your Rozee and Rookie A (assuming Rookie A is on field). In Option B you have to upgrade Milera and Crouch as well as upgrading Rookie A. You may also need to pgrade Heeney but that is likely going to be a luxury trade as Heeney will probably be in the 6-9 range of premium forwards.

An uber premium Midfielder and Defender are likely to be at least 100k more expensive than the heights Miler and Crouch reach. Therefore you need a kitty of about 200k.

So you trade Rookie A down to a basement price and net yourself 300k. You spend that on turning Miler and Crouch into Neale and Whitfield. After three trades the Options now look like this.

Option A (zero trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Rozee and Rookie A
Option B (three trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Heeney and Rookie B

Let's look at Option A's options. They downgrade Rookie A to a basement and use the 300k to turn Rozee into an uber premium in the forward line, lets say Dander.

Option A (two trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Dangerfield, Rookie B
Option B (three trades) - Whitfield, Neale, Heeney, Rookie B

We not see that there are only two differences between the two sides. The first is that one has Danger, likely to average 10 points more than Heeney. The other is that they have only used two trades. This means that when it comes to upgrading Rookie B, they will have one more cash making opportunity than Option B person.

Despite the fact that Milera and Crouch may make a bit of money, there is a cost in realising that money requiring you to trade them out. Additionally, while Milera, Crouch and Heeney may score more than Whitfield, Neale and Rozee over the first ten weeks on average. By the time you upgrade Rozee to Dangerfield, you're making up that difference in the back half of the season while consolidating elsewhere.

Option A for mine.
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But i couldve turned B.Crouch into say an Uber Premium like you have done with a guy avg 112+ in the mids

From Milera (Predicted 88) to (Whitfield) 104 = cost 16 points

From B.Crouch (Predicted 90) to (Uber Premium) 112 = cost 22 points

cost = 38 pts

Rozee to Dangerfield will cost more than that. Probably around 46 pts and thats if Dangerfield holds his 106 avg

So if we compare apples to apples your really grabbing a 120 mid if your saying you can grab Dangerfield or Dev Smith type the top fwd.

So it would really be the difference: Neale (105), Dangerfield (106), Rookie (55) > 2 Trades

vs

Mid (120), Heeney (98), Rookie (55) > 3 Trades
 
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Been a lot of talk here and in the Super Coach board about the difficulty picking the right mid pricers and how many busts there are. With many less trades available, I can see why SC coaches would avoid them anyway, but I don't think they are that hard to find.

While not all played a lot of games, last season 22 exceeded their 'priced at' average by more than 20 pts; 41 by more than 15 pts and 83 by more than 10 pts.

These (below) were on my (long) short list for last season with 'Priced At' average and average points in excess of that.

Plenty of good gets there. A lot didn't play rd 1 so weren't in consideration, unfortunately Brayshaw was one of them. Others struggled in the JLT and weren't considered.

I must say, I don't see the difference in a Mid Pricer playing roughly to his average and someone like Lachie Neale also playing to his average. Same difference except hopefully you are doing something useful with the money saved by going the mid pricer.

Mid Priced according to me is between Rookie priced and:
Def: <85
Mid: <100
Ruc: <100
Fwd: <85

MP.png
 
Maurice Mitchell said:
Been a lot of talk here and in the Super Coach board about the difficulty picking the right mid pricers and how many busts there are. With many less trades available, I can see why SC coaches would avoid them anyway, but I don't think they are that hard to find.

While not all played a lot of games, last season 22 exceeded their 'priced at' average by more than 20 pts; 41 by more than 15 pts and 83 by more than 10 pts.

These (below) were on my (long) short list for last season with 'Priced At' average and average points in excess of that.

Plenty of good gets there. A lot didn't play rd 1 so weren't in consideration, unfortunately Brayshaw was one of them. Others struggled in the JLT and weren't considered.

I must say, I don't see the difference in a Mid Pricer playing roughly to his average and someone like Lachie Neale also playing to his average. Same difference except hopefully you are doing something useful with the money saved by going the mid pricer.

Mid Priced according to me is between Rookie priced and:
Def: <85
Mid: <100
Ruc: <100
Fwd: <85

View attachment 605682
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Nice, out of that lot I started with Gawn (as did most) Devon, Cogs and O'meara and got on the Gus train early, got on the McLean train when he was parked forward tho. Went to Lycett when NicNat went down, but apart from those and Sinclair there wasn't much of a 'hit' rate.
Would be interesting to see a similar table with how the rooks went, I'd assume we all know who were the ones that gained the most but there are others that I don't know about in terms of gains over their initial start.
 
The reason you need a midpricer to improve so much ia because your really comparing 2 midpricer vs Gun and Rookie. Rookies typically who started round 1 last year improved on average by 30.3.

So even if the gun holds their avg your having to find 2 midpricers who need to improve around 15 points each to be worth it.

The above list shows it isnt easy. However i didnt consider many of those guys. Berry, Mcluggage, Zac Fisher, Deboer, Westhoff, Walters, Dev Smith, Jaegar, Sicily were considered by me or picked

Not including guys like Parker, Cogs, Gawn ect
 
SHEEDS BOMBER FOREVER said:
what are peoples thoughts on Devon Smith's output for 2019.
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I think smiths scores may drop a bit but he will still be a top 6 fwd. last year he broke the tackles record and a huge amount of his points came from tackles so I’m hedging my bets that those numbers may drop a bit with a little less pure mid time with the addition of Shiel. He may very well prove me wrong but I don’t see him pulling the regular 7/8 tackles a game to boost his scores. I’m starting the year with Tim kelly over him who I think will out perform him and considerably cheaper for a premo
 
powerrrrrrrrrrrr said:
I think smiths scores may drop a bit but he will still be a top 6 fwd. last year he broke the tackles record and a huge amount of his points came from tackles so I’m hedging my bets that those numbers may drop a bit with a little less pure mid time with the addition of Shiel. He may very well prove me wrong but I don’t see him pulling the regular 7/8 tackles a game to boost his scores. I’m starting the year with Tim kelly over him who I think will out perform him and considerably cheaper for a premo
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Tim Kelly to avg more than Devon Smith?
 
Keystone agony said:
Tim Kelly to avg more than Devon Smith?
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That what I’m predicting or maybe just hopeful that will happen. He finished the year strongly and coming into his second year of AFL by all reports he’s absolutely flying at training. Could be one of those hit or miss scenarios similar to taking Martin over Grundy to start last year but I think kelly will push over 100ave.
 

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powerrrrrrrrrrrr said:
That what I’m predicting or maybe just hopeful that will happen. He finished the year strongly and coming into his second year of AFL by all reports he’s absolutely flying at training. Could be one of those hit or miss scenarios similar to taking Martin over Grundy to start last year but I think kelly will push over 100ave.
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Not a chance Kelly averages more than Smith.

Yes Smith may lose some tackles, but Kelly is still a second year player (despite his maturity) and I think definitely has the higher capacity to score lower. While he finished the season well, his first half was still rookie like scores... I would not be backing Kelly to score more than Smith
 
Keystone agony said:
But i couldve turned B.Crouch into say an Uber Premium like you have done with a guy avg 112+ in the mids

From Milera (Predicted 88) to (Whitfield) 104 = cost 16 points

From B.Crouch (Predicted 90) to (Uber Premium) 112 = cost 22 points

cost = 38 pts

Rozee to Dangerfield will cost more than that. Probably around 46 pts and thats if Dangerfield holds his 106 avg

So if we compare apples to apples your really grabbing a 120 mid if your saying you can grab Dangerfield or Dev Smith type the top fwd.

So it would really be the difference: Neale (105), Dangerfield (106), Rookie (55) > 2 Trades

vs

Mid (120), Heeney (98), Rookie (55) > 3 Trades
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But with the spare trade you can get that Uber mid from somewhere else. Neale slots into say the 8th midfielder spot at the end of the season, if you start with him, you can keep him all season and don't have to touch him. When you try and compare Neale to the Uber Premium in Option B you really need to compare Neale to the 8th mid in that side, which will probably be similarly averaging to Neale. If you want to add in an Uber premium option then we have to expand the pool again and it will come out the same, Option A will average the same if not more and cost one less trade (maybe more). But let's not continue to go into it or we'll end up with Option A consisting of 30 players and Option B consiting of 30 players haha
 
FlowersByIrene said:
But with the spare trade you can get that Uber mid from somewhere else. Neale slots into say the 8th midfielder spot at the end of the season, if you start with him, you can keep him all season and don't have to touch him. When you try and compare Neale to the Uber Premium in Option B you really need to compare Neale to the 8th mid in that side, which will probably be similarly averaging to Neale. If you want to add in an Uber premium option then we have to expand the pool again and it will come out the same, Option A will average the same if not more and cost one less trade (maybe more). But let's not continue to go into it or we'll end up with Option A consisting of 30 players and Option B consiting of 30 players haha
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So its okay for you to add in an uber premium forward in your example but not an uber mid in my example ie the top midfielder/forward. Apples compared to apples please.

Also your initial argument is even more flawed with Rozee which i shouldve picked up on at the start, no way with an avg of 60 does he make 300-400k

Yeh lets not, it was a good discussion. Im not 100% sold on Milera or B.Crouch so depending how well these midpricers go for the rest of preseason will decide it for me id say.

Its 'easy' to go the Premium/Rookie option and 95% who play the comp will do so. Im looking at ways to differentiate myself as thats whats required to win the entire thing unfortunately it can lead to a finish of 2k-5k in rankings aswell.
 
PAFC27 said:
My locks...

Laird. Safe 100, won't be tagged.
Lloyd. Killed it last year, predicted points increase with new rules.
Cripps. Freak. Need I say more?
Zerrett. Priced very nicely and majority will run with him.
M Crouch. Knows how to find the pill. This is a dude who found more of the ball than Mitchell (2?) years back.
Grundy. Again, just a freak.
Dangerfield. Lost 4kg already, has been quoted as wanting to destroy this season. Ablett into forward line has been pretty much confirmed so I see an increase on last year for Danger.
Heeney. Controversial I know...but he's a safe 90 and honestly I think the forward line is risky at the top prices and falls off quickly afterwards.
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Thought I’d bring the discussion into this thread to keep other one just teams and lists of players as much as possible.

Interesting your thoughts on Cripps. I love him too, but it’s a crowded field for the 2019 M1. Trying to weigh up a scattergun approach or just banking Zerrett and observing.

I could see Cripps, MCrouch, Zerrett, Fyfe, Danger, Macrae, Jelly, Oliver and one of the Collingwood mids all in with a shot.
 
Keystone agony said:
So its okay for you to add in an uber premium forward in your example but not an uber mid in my example ie the top midfielder/forward. Apples compared to apples please.

Also your initial argument is even more flawed with Rozee which i shouldve picked up on at the start, no way with an avg of 60 does he make 300-400k

Yeh lets not, it was a good discussion. Im not 100% sold on Milera or B.Crouch so depending how well these midpricers go for the rest of preseason will decide it for me id say.

Its 'easy' to go the Premium/Rookie option and 95% who play the comp will do so. Im looking at ways to differentiate myself as thats whats required to win the entire thing unfortunately it can lead to a finish of 2k-5k in rankings aswell.
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Yeah my apologies, the only reason I had upgrade Rozee to Danger is that I didn't think Heeney would be a top 6 forward so it wouldn't be a logical comparison for mine. And i was trying to keep the premise that Neale and Whitfield were top 6 and 8 respectively for their position to simplify the process like an algebra equation so that we don't have to keep going outside the scope of the three players compared.

As you say, a lot will go guns and rooks and it will do just fine. There's gold to be found in the midpricers but its ensuring you get the right ones. As i think you identified up above, for two midpricers to outperform a gun and rookie they need to generally increase their average by about 15+ points each which, as those stats showed, isn't always guaranteed (although is possible).

My approach this year will be less targetting mid pricers (although I definitely will have at least one on each line most likely) and targeting undervalued premiums who I think will be top 6/8 at the end of the year. Players like Witherden (breakout) Merret (knocked out score) M. Crouch (hamstring score), Danger (played like a crab most of last season) etc etc are all undervalued who will hopefully increase their averages by 5-10 points but who I will also not need to trade as they should be top of their class at seasons end.

By taking those undervalued players as opposed to maxxed out players like Laird, D. Smith, Gawn, Congilio who are priced at their pure average, I should hopefully be able to turn a rookie into a midpriced player and then effectively, the mid pricer is just another rookie with more cost banked and hopefully a higher job security and scoring output.
 

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