2019 planning

[Maurice Mitchell]

thanks for sharing that list.

It kind of supports my gut feel that for a mid pricer that 25+ points upside is generally the cut off to picking them. ideally 30 predicted upside.

If we use 25 say, theres really only 15 rookies who did better, with a number around the same level. Of those 15 or so, many didn't play enough games early to make them reliable cash cows (a games played 1st 6 rounds and games played/missed pre bye would be a very interesting additional 2 column to that table). If we use 30 as the cut off theres only 11 better.

So given a mid pricer who has good job security (and then factoring in body reliability if thats the reason they are cheap) and will score 30+ (makes them very good selection) or 25 (good selection), the reliability of their place in the team assists in making that a good pick.

Also, interesting to note the prices of the players listed there. If we ignore Jacobs who was an injury affected player not a rookie, only 2 players im that 30+ bracket was priced over 200k, and only 2 more who beat that 25pt cut off (well 4, but 2 of those were on 25). Thats interesting because its often those high priced rookies we are debating with whether to pick them or the mid priced option. That lends more support to the benefit of picking the right mid pricer as you can often have them and still have those most beneficial cheap rookies

Job security certainly is one advantage the mid pricer usually has.

Might I reiterate that the table above was only of guys that played Rd 1.

Also, re: Jacobs: that type of player are in my opinion a better choice than than a rookie. By rookie, I mean a player fresh out of the U17's.

Guys like Doedee, Murray, Fritsch, Banfield, Holman, Gowers etc. were slightly older and ready to go. Walsh and Bailey Smith look exceptional ball winners so possibly worth the risk but I'd rather some 170K experienced guys rather than the likes of Worpel (68.2), Brayshaw (66.8) and Stephenson (65.7) who last year, by average, were the best of the 18 year olds.

 

[bol316]

Definitely a fair point but not entirely sold on that logic, tbh. Williams is a decent pick, but he's not a lock by any means. You could just as easily start with someone like Jordan Clark at 200K cheaper, and he could score the same. Brodie Smith could average 80 but he's not going to be in your best side at the end of the season. Meanwhile Clark is sitting at the same score or similar to Smith and/or Williams, and one person has an extra 200K.

There is definitely a good chance that defender scoring could outpace the forwards this year, but there's also a good chance it might not. That's why it's so tough pre-JLT, as there's just a million different ideas that you've got, that all contradict the others.

Personally, I won't touch Sicily with a 10 foot pole, and reckon B. Crouch and Hanners will break down early. More confident on Hanners than Crouch, so he's a 'wait and see' prospect. Won't be going with Miles either, as Gold Coast will remain a basket-case for at least the foreseeable future, and can't see that changing. Kreuzer is another I won't be touching either.

I do like Lloyd and Blakely though, as they both have huge ceilings and either could be D1 or D2. Although, Laird is still the main priority IMO.

Personally, I think the only absolute locks at this stage are:

Macrae
Danger
Grundy
Brayshaw (Melbourne)
Walsh
Lloyd
Laird
Dusty (predominant mid with Lynch playing, injury free)

McCrae is just paying full price, unless you think he is the only option for captain spot. Brayshaw and Grundy are also full price. The rest I like

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Just on the reaction to the kick in rule, i think what makes it more appealing is the guaranteed increase in value.

I will not sacrifice my midfield for defenders because mids for the most part just pump out more points than any other position, but elsewhere we are looking for value.

It isn't just a matter of whether those defenders will out average forwards, it is about getting them underpriced with a guaranteed increase in points to come plus on top of any natural improvement.

The main deciding factor though will be where the best rookies are after JLT. Until we know who looks good and who is likely for a round 1 debut it's hard to know where to prioritize.

 

[Tex Danger]

Both Constable and Atkins are tracking really well, so there's a good chance you could have both of them on your bench, given that they're basement price.

At this point, I'd be leaning more towards Constable, given the shake-up that our midfield is getting this year. Selwood will play back a bit, Ablett is already training with the forwards and Danger, Kelly and Duncan will be the dominant mids. Constable is that big bodied 6'3 mid we're looking for, that can really change the dynamic of our structure. Atkins will play at some point, but I feel our forward line is actually quite stacked too, given the focus we placed on it during trade and draft period. Constable could play a lot of games this year, if he gets his tank to where it needs to be. Here's a good article if you haven't read it already. Highlights a bit about the aforementioned younger players

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-12-...kened-to-cripps-could-join-jampacked-midfield

Thanks shadow, Constable is a placeholder in my bench pending rd 1 teams. Atkins will be 1 to look out for by the sounds of it

 

[Tex Danger]

Definitely a fair point but not entirely sold on that logic, tbh. Williams is a decent pick, but he's not a lock by any means. You could just as easily start with someone like Jordan Clark at 200K cheaper, and he could score the same. Brodie Smith could average 80 but he's not going to be in your best side at the end of the season. Meanwhile Clark is sitting at the same score or similar to Smith and/or Williams, and one person has an extra 200K.

There is definitely a good chance that defender scoring could outpace the forwards this year, but there's also a good chance it might not. That's why it's so tough pre-JLT, as there's just a million different ideas that you've got, that all contradict the others.

Personally, I won't touch Sicily with a 10 foot pole, and reckon B. Crouch and Hanners will break down early. More confident on Hanners than Crouch, so he's a 'wait and see' prospect. Won't be going with Miles either, as Gold Coast will remain a basket-case for at least the foreseeable future, and can't see that changing. Kreuzer is another I won't be touching either.

I do like Lloyd and Blakely though, as they both have huge ceilings and either could be D1 or D2. Although, Laird is still the main priority IMO.

Personally, I think the only absolute locks at this stage are:

Macrae
Danger
Grundy
Brayshaw (Melbourne)
Walsh
Lloyd
Laird
Dusty (predominant mid with Lynch playing, injury free)

I think there's a few reasons for the defender interest.

1/ we are always looking for value, especially value in a genuine premium. The kick out rules give this sense that a lot of what we see at the top defenders have upside (and in Blakelys case its the departure of Neale)

2/ When I look at the defensive options, i am pretty confident in what I would pick to be the top 5-6. Laird, Lloyd, Whitfield, Blakely, Witherden, then maybe Sicily. The top 4-5 you'd have to be quote confident are top 6. So combine a "certain" top 6 with perceived value and theres no wonder theres plenty of interest there. Compare that to forwards who aside from Danger, the top picks are either not seen as value or not seen as certain top 6. Likewise in the mids where you can throw a blanket over many- not only that but when trading in you dont necessarily need to trade in a current top 8 as mids often go on runs and a 15-20 at time of trading may be 1-5 from then on in. The defenders thats just so much less likely.

Im not saying that going 5 premolar defenders is right but can see why theres interest there. As you said, it also comes down to if theres the best money making rooks/midpricers there too then that offsets the value and upside of the premium as cash generation is king early.

 

[Tex Danger]

McCrae is just paying full price, unless you think he is the only option for captain spot. Brayshaw and Grundy are also full price. The rest I like

agree Macrae is a risk at his price.
Grundy likely full price but so far ahead of the others in a line that doesnt necessarily offer a lot of cash cow prospects makes him valuable
Brayshaw you cant say is full priced. He may be and his top scoring last season was 1 out of the box, but if it wasn't then he is actually underpriced. He is in the mix for me and a bit of a high risk high reward pick. He probably misses out on structure but he could be a macrae like pick of last year

 

[bol316]

agree Macrae is a risk at his price.
Grundy likely full price but so far ahead of the others in a line that doesnt necessarily offer a lot of cash cow prospects makes him valuable
Brayshaw you cant say is full priced. He may be and his top scoring last season was 1 out of the box, but if it wasn't then he is actually underpriced. He is in the mix for me and a bit of a high risk high reward pick. He probably misses out on structure but he could be a macrae like pick of last year

Grundy being "far and away the best ruck" is understandable in a draft setting. But in Classic, its all about value, and at his price I'm just not so sure about the value there. If anything, i am leary of Cox pinch-hitting for him more to keep him fresh. I am picking up Kruezer personally. At the very least he will hold value. At best he gains a ton and challenges Gawn for #2. If he isn't quite there, easy upgrade. I just hate going in with anyone I don't think is going to gain value.

As far as McCrae, i don't think hes a risk so much. I just don't see anything to gain there unless you think hes far and away the captain choice weekly. I plan to make Josh Kelly captain for about 100K less and really don't see a ton of difference. I am def sticking to Brayshaw being full price. Sure, anyone can gain value, but im just not seeing it and asking someone at his price and to be even better is asking a lot. Pretty rare occurrence.

 

[samFFC]

Coaches Panel lukewarm about Wingard’s mid opportunities in light of Titch injury.
Feel he will have similar mercurial role as he had at PA, and is a replacement for Rioli rather than a gun mid.
Still good value but an interesting perspective that if true will likely cap his scoring below 95.

 

[Tex Danger]

Grundy being "far and away the best ruck" is understandable in a draft setting. But in Classic, its all about value, and at his price I'm just not so sure about the value there. If anything, i am leary of Cox pinch-hitting for him more to keep him fresh. I am picking up Kruezer personally. At the very least he will hold value. At best he gains a ton and challenges Gawn for #2. If he isn't quite there, easy upgrade. I just hate going in with anyone I don't think is going to gain value.

As far as McCrae, i don't think hes a risk so much. I just don't see anything to gain there unless you think hes far and away the captain choice weekly. I plan to make Josh Kelly captain for about 100K less and really don't see a ton of difference. I am def sticking to Brayshaw being full price. Sure, anyone can gain value, but im just not seeing it and asking someone at his price and to be even better is asking a lot. Pretty rare occurrence.

Re Brayshaw macrae went from less than him to what I now call safe captain pick. Brayshaw could too, agree the likely uoside is less though

Your thinking with Grundy is reasonable but I’m not sure there are 2 underpriced options I could be confident in. Kreuzer R2 for me too but I feel most ducks at prices near their ceiling so would rather pay top dollar for Grundy.

Eg rather Grundy and Brayshaw than Macrae and another ruck who is in that next price line

 

[samFFC]

Re Brayshaw macrae went from less than him to what I now call safe captain pick. Brayshaw could too, agree the likely uoside is less though

Your thinking with Grundy is reasonable but I’m not sure there are 2 underpriced options I could be confident in. Kreuzer R2 for me too but I feel most ducks at prices near their ceiling so would rather pay top dollar for Grundy.

Eg rather Grundy and Brayshaw than Macrae and another ruck who is in that next price line

Yeah I’m torn
I want Grundy and don’t want to repeat past mistakes. But I’m also very confident Grundy/Gawn won’t be the top 2 rucks by virtue of the fact that the rankings change every year. And it’s easy to see how any of that next tier could push back into top 2, at a much much cheaper price.

 

[Tex Danger]

Coaches Panel lukewarm about Wingard’s mid opportunities in light of Titch injury.
Feel he will have similar mercurial role as he had at PA, and is a replacement for Rioli rather than a gun mid.
Still good value but an interesting perspective that if true will likely cap his scoring below 95.

If that prediction is right which I think it is reasonable, mitc

Yeah I’m torn
I want Grundy and don’t want to repeat past mistakes. But I’m also very confident Grundy/Gawn won’t be the top 2 rucks by virtue of the fact that the rankings change every year. And it’s easy to see how any of that next tier could push back into top 2, at a much much cheaper price.

I love going mid price rucks, at least 1 and 2 if possible. Its just who that makes it hard.

I dont mind Kruezer although dont trust his body. Goldstein another who could improve but like u said with brayshaw i dont see enough improvement you could be confident i in any of that next tier to pick them for value. but you could be confident they at least hold if paying on grundy allows you n extra mid your keen on and eye him as an early upgrade. its no different to passing on a laird, macrae, smith, etc in other lines given you know you will want/need them by the end

if there was an indication Clarke is best 22 a Kruezeer clarke combo would be the ballsy move.

 

[bol316]

If that prediction is right which I think it is reasonable, mitc

I love going mid price rucks, at least 1 and 2 if possible. Its just who that makes it hard.

I dont mind Kruezer although dont trust his body. Goldstein another who could improve but like u said with brayshaw i dont see enough improvement you could be confident i in any of that next tier to pick them for value. but you could be confident they at least hold if paying on grundy allows you n extra mid your keen on and eye him as an early upgrade. its no different to passing on a laird, macrae, smith, etc in other lines given you know you will want/need them by the end

if there was an indication Clarke is best 22 a Kruezeer clarke combo would be the ballsy move.

Im considering Kruezer-Pruess ruck combo. I can't imagine they traded for him if hes not gonna play. So at worst he holds value

 

[DynamiteDons]

Who would you take out of Libba or Walsh (carlton) ?

 

[PAFC27]

Taranto being a mid only has really screwed me. After Danger, it's really just throwing darts at a board for me

 

[DynamiteDons]

Taranto being a mid only has really screwed me. After Danger, it's really just throwing darts at a board for me

yeah forwards this year is going to be so hit and miss, All of the top 3 forwards, Smith, Danger and Dunkley all have ?? over there heads. Going to be some trades used early in the season for the forwards.

 

[Shadow89]

yeah forwards this year is going to be so hit and miss, All of the top 3 forwards, Smith, Danger and Dunkley all have ?? over there heads. Going to be some trades used early in the season for the forwards.

Danger is training predominantly with the mid group this pre-season, and has alluded to 'wanting the crown back' as best player in the comp. So I definitely think he's a lock for a forward. Agree on the others, although Smith can hit his ton each week on tackles and minimal disposal numbers, so I can't see him going too badly either.

 

[Shadow89]

Who would you take out of Libba or Walsh (carlton) ?

Walsh in a heartbeat. Been compared to Selwood and averaged near 30 disposals last year. Libba too injury affected and much bigger risk than Walsh. With Carlton's weak midfield, he'll be a lock for Round 1.

 

[Cotchy9]

M.Crouch and Goldstein
V
Macrae and Kreuzer?

 

[Shadow89]

Grundy being "far and away the best ruck" is understandable in a draft setting. But in Classic, its all about value, and at his price I'm just not so sure about the value there. If anything, i am leary of Cox pinch-hitting for him more to keep him fresh. I am picking up Kruezer personally. At the very least he will hold value. At best he gains a ton and challenges Gawn for #2. If he isn't quite there, easy upgrade. I just hate going in with anyone I don't think is going to gain value.

As far as McCrae, i don't think hes a risk so much. I just don't see anything to gain there unless you think hes far and away the captain choice weekly. I plan to make Josh Kelly captain for about 100K less and really don't see a ton of difference. I am def sticking to Brayshaw being full price. Sure, anyone can gain value, but im just not seeing it and asking someone at his price and to be even better is asking a lot. Pretty rare occurrence.

Kelly is a gun, but he's had a lot of injury issues in the last year and a bit. Plus he'll definitely get tagged each week as well. No player has the ceiling that Macrae has (except Titch) and that's why I reckon he's worth the extra cash (for two Macrae's). I honestly do think he's the best captain choice at the moment, so that's why I'm not fussed about his price. If Kelly stays fit and the Bulldogs share it around a bit more though, he could definitely take that mantle from 'Crae.

In regards to gaining value, the problem is that if you focus too much on that aspect, you lose out on point generation whilst you're gaining that value. If Macrae scores 150 in his first week and you have a lesser mid like Neale who's 200K cheaper but whose ceiling isn't the same, is that you'll quickly fall down the rankings due to not keeping up with the scores. Yeah you might generate more cash, but you'll be in 2000th while someone who has Macrae is in the top 100 due to his point generation. Of course it can swing the other way, but players are usually cheaper for a reason. Doch would have been the massive exception this year, if he had of played. Will be next year after another 30% discount.

Also, Bray is an interesting one. Top score of 166 and an average of 105.1. If you take out his first 3 rounds where he was eased in, in defence, then you end up with 112 or so. If you remove the one game where he got tagged to a 47 just before the bye, he ends up with a 116 or so. Those are uber premium numbers and around 10 points of upside. If he still had retained DEF status, he'd be a lock. Can understand why some don't see him like that now though. Guy is a serious freak to watch when you see just how many +6's he racks up.

 

[Tex Danger]

Kelly is a gun, but he's had a lot of injury issues in the last year and a bit. Plus he'll definitely get tagged each week as well. No player has the ceiling that Macrae has (except Titch) and that's why I reckon he's worth the extra cash (for two Macrae's). I honestly do think he's the best captain choice at the moment, so that's why I'm not fussed about his price. If Kelly stays fit and the Bulldogs share it around a bit more though, he could definitely take that mantle from 'Crae.

In regards to gaining value, the problem is that if you focus too much on that aspect, you lose out on point generation whilst you're gaining that value. If Macrae scores 150 in his first week and you have a lesser mid like Neale who's 200K cheaper but whose ceiling isn't the same, is that you'll quickly fall down the rankings due to not keeping up with the scores. Yeah you might generate more cash, but you'll be in 2000th while someone who has Macrae is in the top 100 due to his point generation. Of course it can swing the other way, but players are usually cheaper for a reason. Doch would have been the massive exception this year, if he had of played. Will be next year after another 30% discount.

Also, Bray is an interesting one. Top score of 166 and an average of 105.1. If you take out his first 3 rounds where he was eased in, in defence, then you end up with 112 or so. If you remove the one game where he got tagged to a 47 just before the bye, he ends up with a 116 or so. Those are uber premium numbers and around 10 points of upside. If he still had retained DEF status, he'd be a lock. Can understand why some don't see him like that now though. Guy is a serious freak to watch when you see just how many +6's he racks up.

at the moment brayshaw and ross are in a battle for my unique hopefully breakout gun pick

brayshaw finals scores bring those adjusted averages down. did he get more attention and a sign of the future?

 

[bl4ke]

at the moment brayshaw and ross are in a battle for my unique hopefully breakout gun pick

brayshaw finals scores bring those adjusted averages down. did he get more attention and a sign of the future?

Started to get the tag instead of Oliver. Definitely a concern

 

[bl4ke]

Can always hedge by having both!

I'll probably start with Birchall over Smith if he plays JLT

 

[Shadow89]

at the moment brayshaw and ross are in a battle for my unique hopefully breakout gun pick

brayshaw finals scores bring those adjusted averages down. did he get more attention and a sign of the future?

Yes and no. I think teams know that he's damaging, but they still won't want to let Oliver off the leash either. Given that he still didn't score badly, if he plays against teams who don't tag, the average will balance out. Still worth it IMO, but JLT could give us a decent indication on how he's tracking/if teams put any time into him.

 

[samFFC]

I'll probably start with Birchall over Smith if he plays JLT

Agree Birchall more of a lock but injury dependent.

to you or others: Have I missed something - why the love for Zac clarke? Do we think Bellchambers won’t be back in time for JLT?

 

[bol316]

Agree Birchall more of a lock but injury dependent.

to you or others: Have I missed something - why the love for Zac clarke? Do we think Bellchambers won’t be back in time for JLT?

Partially that and i am sure a lot of people think he might get some early playing time anyway