AFLW 2019 Predictions (Poll Added)

[Teen Wolf]

Season's underway a month from now! Go on, make an educated guess or have a stab in the dark. Put your reputation on the line and your money where ya mouth is. Who will do what, why will it happen when etc.

I'm going to hold off a little while on my flag and ladder tips, but here's a couple of other categories to start.

League B&F: Emily Bates, despite numerous snubs by umpires in the last two seasons.
Rising Star: Tyla Hanks because I like the ratio of opportunity vs support she should get slotting into Melbourne's midfield.
Leading Goal-Kicker: Probably Darcy Vescio but she doesn't need to hit the scoreboard to provide highlights, so I hope it's Jess Wuetschner since her snaps and such are always a joy.

Miscellaneous: AFLW '19 will be bigger and better than ever before! (I'll try to come up with something more interesting/original than that)

 

[BringBackTorps]

OK, my crystal ball.

1) The "big one"- by end of season, general AFLW expert opinion that the average player standard has noticeably risen again, perhaps by 5-10%.
It is the average skill level that is the most crucial determinant of enduring AFLW success, combined with attacking football coaching mind sets. If coaches want to constantly flood, with constant stoppages & play tackleball, they should be sacked.
(AFLW Clubs agreed, as part of their licence, to promote the AFLW. Attacking, generally free-flowing, & fairly high scoring Football are also enshrined in the AFL's Charter Of The Game)

2) The next big one- fewer average tackles & stoppages per game.

3) Average scoring per game also increases, by about 10%+

Average crowds:-
. Mighty Vic. Park 11,000 (capacity is about 14,000)
. Kardinia Park 8,000
. Tasmania 4,000 (but if numerous Tas. women playing, then more)
. Docklands 11,000
. Avalon Oval (near Geelong, NM/Tas.) No idea -at capacity 2000?
. Princes Park 11,000
. Western Oval 8,000
. Casey 3,000
I am most concerned about NM/Tas. crowds- they might average far fewer than 4,000 per home game.

Also, average increases at all other non-Victorian ovals by c.10%+ (excluding Perth Stadium).
Hickey Park, much closer to the Brisbane CBD, with good-viewing tiers, small grand stand offering protection from the sun, better facilities, might cause Brisbane to have a very large increase in its crowds.

These predictions are all predicated on approx. the same (minority) number of matches played at over 25 degrees; & same humidity levels, and same number of rain- affected matches, as in the 2018 AFLW.
Also, to achieve these crowd averages, the AFLW must be played, generally, in an aesthetically-pleasing style, with the skills of AF very often on display- & not bastardised, "rugbyised" congested tackleball.

4) TV ratings are my big worry, as there was a significant average drop in 2018, cf. 2017. The first 2 nationally televised games in 2018, in fine conditions & in prime time, had a half of no goals, & a half of only 1 goal scored- an embarrassment for the AFLW.
This "rugby footy" might have convinced luke warm/curious AFLW fans to abandon the AFLW for the rest of 2018- a great pity, as most AFLW games in 2018 were very entertaining, tough, nearly all players very courageous, & some players regularly displaying great skills.
A more skilful, average standard & higher scoring in 2019 should rectify the ratings' decline problem.

5) My other worry for the AFLW (& for GR female AF) is that in 2019 it does not significantly reduce the quantum & percentage (its a small season, c.38 games, 16 on the field) of serious knee injuries, & severe head knocks. These issues MUST be overcome, for female AF to have long term & increasing success.

6) The extension of the BBL into Feb. is certain to reduce ratings, when played concurrently with AFLW matches.
There will be justifiable complaints about the AFLX taking clear media air from the AFLW, & having a negative impact on the AFLW.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I'm pretty sure the conference system will confuse fans and detract from following the AFLW. I do give Brownie points to the AFL for committing to the comp and growing it rapidly.

I hope this year is just a crunch between not being ready for an expanded season yet, or to increase player payments sufficiently to make it feasible, and not wanting to delay expansion.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Well I can see how the unfair fixture will frustrate fans (in particular, those whose teams are most disadvantaged by it), but I think the only folks confused about the conference system is the AFL.

The first 2 nationally televised games in 2018, in fine conditions & in prime time, had a half of no goals, & a half of only 1 goal scored- an embarrassment for the AFLW.

Not sure what you think the second game was? Perhaps you have the timing of the Carlton-Brisbane game wrong. Nevertheless, the first game of 2018 definitely overshadowed a lot of the good stuff that followed. It does help to get the season off on the right note. So what do they do for 2019? Give the opening game to the two clubs with the most inexperienced lists!

 

[RobZombie]

I am most concerned about NM/Tas. crowds- they might average far fewer than 4,000 per home game

They only have one vic home game, and it’s a Sunday twilight in Werribee. Your concern is probably well founded on that front. I’d expect them to basically fill North Hobart and no idea re Launnie. Real shame Arden St won’t be ready.

 

[BringBackTorps]

I’d expect them to basically fill North Hobart and no idea re Launnie. Real shame Arden St won’t be ready.

Nth Hobart Oval had a crowd of c. 19,300 in 1996 (Pre-season practice game between 1995 AFL Grand Final teams Carlton vs. Geelong); & 24,968 in 1979 TFL Grand Final.
What is it current capacity?

BIG call to say the AFLW NM/Tas. team will "basically fill Nth Hobart". Why?

 

[RobZombie]

Nth Hobart Oval had a crowd of c. 19,300 in 1996 (Pre-season practice game between 1995 AFL Grand Final teams Carlton vs. Geelong); & 24,968 in 1979 TFL Grand Final.
What is it current capacity?

BIG call to say the AFLW NM/Tas. team will "basically fill Nth Hobart". Why?

Oh ok, I was going on my impressions of it last time I was there (for a function in the pavilion, not a game). That capacity is a bit higher than I expected. I would expect that the return of high-profile footy to the ground, the historic occasion of the club's first women's game, the fact it will be Tassie-branded with a number of local girls in the team, they'll easily go over that 4-5,000 mark for the first game, and would be optimistic of getting 10,000+. Ongoing it's a different story of course, but given there will be just the one women's home game in each of Hobart and Launceston for the foreseeable future they'll try and maintain a sense of occasion every year.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Posting my tips now to avoid influence from practice match buzz which traditionally only serves to disorient. Accounting for injuries that may happen, or may have already happened without knowing about it, is tough so I’m just trying to play what I think the percentages are.

Western Bulldogs (6-1, 1st in Conference A) Enough class on their list to go back-to-back, definitely. Harder to know if the grunt work will be found to replace Kearney and Bruton, and real danger looms around not figuring out the answer until it’s too late.

North Melbourne (4-3, 2nd in Conference A) There isn’t scope for the feared league-wide domination here unless a number of recruits, while on their way out the door, Monstarred the talents of former flaw-concealing teammates. That aside, what a time to be a North supporter: Scott the Coach is still calling the strokes, but for once it won’t be all Brad’s fault if they sink rather than swim.

Fremantle (3-4, 3rd in Conference A) A tonne of costly list exclusions (some of their own doing) and yet it could have been worse, assuming Hooker’s decision to stay boosted morale more than her flirtation with leaving hurt it. If Trent Cooper’s only new contribution is to build the team around Antonio, as opposed to using her as a stopgap, the Dockers have a good chance of improving.

Melbourne (3-4, 4th in Conference A) With the fixture conspiring against them and the captain knocked up, a third-consecutive year of narrowly missing the cut is uncomfortably plausible. This team should continue to be the AFLW Gold Standard when they hit their straps in the vast pastures of Casey Fields, weather permitting.

Adelaide (2-4-1, 5th in Conference A) Woefully undisciplined 2018 confirming an over-reliance on Randall and Phillips. The former is guaranteed to keep them mildly respectable whereas the latter’s fitness must be impetuously taken for granted before reinstating the Crows as a flag threat.


GWS (5-2, Premiers) Didn’t do much wrong to only finish 4th last year. Getting blown out of the water in a pseudo-semifinal was more about the Lions having nothing to gain from their usual conservative style. The trajectory from easy-beats to quality underdog, culminating in a torching of the eventual champs in Canberra, should just be the beginning. After all, Rebecca Beeson can hardly get a sniff of the Giants’ centre circle despite being a standout mid for Hawthorn in the “superior” VFLW.

Brisbane (5-2, Runners-up) Can’t win the whole thing, I hope, until Starcevich shows enough confidence in his back 6 to hold their own without flood support.

Collingwood (3-4, 3rd in Conference B) Two more proven A-Graders in their midfield than the Blues and Cats combined. If the Pies’ division draw and uneven list is landing them in middle-of-the-road limbo like I think, the bright side is Molloy’s absence came at a time when neither finals nor wooden spoon chances could be greatly altered by her presence anyway.

Carlton (2-4-1, 4th in Conference B) Some nice additions, including the coach. I’m not seriously predicting they’ll play in a draw with Adelaide (yet), more just throwing my hands in the air due to the volatility of both teams. A lot of unknowns, a lot of need-to-go-rights, but they seemingly only require one thing to go wrong for the wheels to fall off completely.

Geelong (1-6) We’ve already seen teenagers hit the ground running in AFLW, but not most of them, and none without a thick insulation of established possession-getters to ease the transition. From that perspective, the best Cats on-baller is a 34yo defender returning from an ACL. Future stars of Morrison and co.’s ilk might win games for their team immediately and gladly prove me wrong. Until then, I won’t disrespect the incumbents (slouches like Paxman, O’Dea, Chiocci, Lambert, Donnellan, Eva, Blackburn etc.) by insinuating they’re pushovers.

 

[BringBackTorps]

Practice match Princes Park 19.1 Geelong 7.4 v. Carlton 7.2
4 x 20 min. qtrs- no time on. Oval surface perfect, temp. c.22 deg., no wind .

What a game! Good standard! Reasonably free-flowing.
Congestion was not as great as most AFLW games previously. The 5-6-5 starting formations, & Boundary umpire throwing in the ball about 10 mtrs from the line, are good rules. They must assist in reducing congestion. Well done AFL.
I saw Steve Hocking there, AFL Football Operations manager, & I assume he would have been very happy with what he saw.

As usual, the women were tough & courageous. A few big collisions & tackles. P. Mc Williams probably BOG. Morrison & Prespakis will, very likely, be long term stars, as their careers are only starting.

Noticeable improvement in disposal efficiency under pressure, AND link-up play improved considerably.
Game standard was one of the best seen in the AFLW. IMO, a standard not far from the excellent Sept. 2016 exhibition match Melb. v. Footscray (but flooding minimised then).

Noticeable reduction in unforced errors. Virtually all kicking, when not under pressure, was natural-looking drop punts (No Irish women playing).

IF this skill standard is typical of the AFLW standard in 2019, then 2019 will be considered a "break-out" year for the AFLW. It will win over many of the AFLW neutrals/curious/knockers, many will want to watch it.
And the broadcasters & advertisers will be VERY happy: more goals = more ad breaks = more valuable Broadcast Rights.

My only disappointment was the crowd- under 1,000, inferior to previous years' practice matches for 2 Melb. sides. Hopefully, proper AFLW promotion happens very shortly.

EDIT:
NM/Tas. 9.2 v. Melb. 4.10

I don't know what the standard was like in this game- but the total of 25 scoring shots suggests this game also was fairly free-flowing. Another good sign for the AFLW.
(Ditto ? GWS 11.9 v. Brisbane 4.4- but this game FIVE x 15 min. qtrs, in 33 degrees heat!)

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Posting my tips now to avoid influence from practice match buzz which traditionally only serves to disorient. Accounting for injuries that may happen, or may have already happened without knowing about it, is tough so I’m just trying to play what I think the percentages are.

Western Bulldogs (6-1, 1st in Conference A) Enough class on their list to go back-to-back, definitely. Harder to know if the grunt work will be found to replace Kearney and Bruton, and real danger looms around not figuring out the answer until it’s too late.

North Melbourne (4-3, 2nd in Conference A) There isn’t scope for the feared league-wide domination here unless a number of recruits, while on their way out the door, Monstarred the talents of former flaw-concealing teammates. That aside, what a time to be a North supporter: Scott the Coach is still calling the strokes, but for once it won’t be all Brad’s fault if they sink rather than swim.

Fremantle (3-4, 3rd in Conference A) A tonne of costly list exclusions (some of their own doing) and yet it could have been worse, assuming Hooker’s decision to stay boosted morale more than her flirtation with leaving hurt it. If Trent Cooper’s only new contribution is to build the team around Antonio, as opposed to using her as a stopgap, the Dockers have a good chance of improving.

Melbourne (3-4, 4th in Conference A) With the fixture conspiring against them and the captain knocked up, a third-consecutive year of narrowly missing the cut is uncomfortably plausible. This team should continue to be the AFLW Gold Standard when they hit their straps in the vast pastures of Casey Fields, weather permitting.

Adelaide (2-4-1, 5th in Conference A) Woefully undisciplined 2018 confirming an over-reliance on Randall and Phillips. The former is guaranteed to keep them mildly respectable whereas the latter’s fitness must be impetuously taken for granted before reinstating the Crows as a flag threat.


GWS (5-2, Premiers) Didn’t do much wrong to only finish 4th last year. Getting blown out of the water in a pseudo-semifinal was more about the Lions having nothing to gain from their usual conservative style. The trajectory from easy-beats to quality underdog, culminating in a torching of the eventual champs in Canberra, should just be the beginning. After all, Rebecca Beeson can hardly get a sniff of the Giants’ centre circle despite being a standout mid for Hawthorn in the “superior” VFLW.

Brisbane (5-2, Runners-up) Can’t win the whole thing, I hope, until Starcevich shows enough confidence in his back 6 to hold their own without flood support.

Collingwood (3-4, 3rd in Conference B) Two more proven A-Graders in their midfield than the Blues and Cats combined. If the Pies’ division draw and uneven list is landing them in middle-of-the-road limbo like I think, the bright side is Molloy’s absence came at a time when neither finals nor wooden spoon chances could be greatly altered by her presence anyway.

Carlton (2-4-1, 4th in Conference B) Some nice additions, including the coach. I’m not seriously predicting they’ll play in a draw with Adelaide (yet), more just throwing my hands in the air due to the volatility of both teams. A lot of unknowns, a lot of need-to-go-rights, but they seemingly only require one thing to go wrong for the wheels to fall off completely.

Geelong (1-6) We’ve already seen teenagers hit the ground running in AFLW, but not most of them, and none without a thick insulation of established possession-getters to ease the transition. From that perspective, the best Cats on-baller is a 34yo defender returning from an ACL. Future stars of Morrison and co.’s ilk might win games for their team immediately and gladly prove me wrong. Until then, I won’t disrespect the incumbents (slouches like Paxman, O’Dea, Chiocci, Lambert, Donnellan, Eva, Blackburn etc.) by insinuating they’re pushovers.

I think you've got to downgrade North and Geelong a bit this year. The other clubs have 2 years head start on setting up the infrastructure.

There's a number of issues around the womens team and how they integrate into the club in my view. In our second year we gave the clubs director of coaching, Alan McConnell, the job of coaching the women. Heater also took on a mentoring role. That seemed to work and this year Heater will be joined by Deledio as a mentor.

That kind of fine tuning is in the expansion clubs future I think, and it'll take time. It's possible they'll do a brilliant job and be dominant from the beginning, but I think the odds are against it.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I think you've got to downgrade North and Geelong a bit this year. The other clubs have 2 years head start on setting up the infrastructure.

There's a number of issues around the womens team and how they integrate into the club in my view. In our second year we gave the clubs director of coaching, Alan McConnell, the job of coaching the women. Heater also took on a mentoring role. That seemed to work and this year Heater will be joined by Deledio as a mentor.

That kind of fine tuning is in the expansion clubs future I think, and it'll take time. It's possible they'll do a brilliant job and be dominant from the beginning, but I think the odds are against it.

What if GWS had a bad run with injuries and struggled badly in 2018, though. It'd be easy to go the other way and say "of course they're a rabble, look at who they put in charge of mentoring innocent 19yo ruckman Erin McKinnon etc."

I was complimentary of McConnell last year but he wouldn't have been taking over a wooden-spoon team if the Giants landed those second season inclusions--some very solid defenders and two absolute top-tier midfielders--from the outset. The club with the most brilliant playing list, not coaching staff, is the one I always expect to win (then again, I was wrong about the last two years so what does it matter).

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

What if GWS had a bad run with injuries and struggled badly in 2018, though. It'd be easy to go the other way and say "of course they're a rabble, look at who they put in charge of mentoring innocent 19yo ruckman Erin McKinnon etc."

I was complimentary of McConnell last year but he wouldn't have been taking over a wooden-spoon team if the Giants landed those second season inclusions--some very solid defenders and two absolute top-tier midfielders--from the outset. The club with the most brilliant playing list, not coaching staff, is the one I always expect to win (then again, I was wrong about the last two years so what does it matter).

Fair enough.

I do think the initial year for a new team is a disadvantage. I said it might be overcome, and it could be.

 

[BringBackTorps]

Adelaide 9.4 v. Freo. 5.8
26 scoring shots, 14 goals is good, & also indicates a more free-flowing AFLW style.

Footscray 5.5 v. Collingwood 4.4
Scoring is OK but, apparently, windy conditions in Ballarat- would have hindered good skills, kicking, & accuracy.
I understand game was a bit scrappy.

In conclusion, the first Round of practice matches was VERY promising , from an AFLW game asthetic/popularity perspective. The results appear even more impressive when it is considered all teams provided many of their best players with limited game time- or didn't play them at all.

Collingwood's 2019 recruit, 23 y.o., S.Rowe is a phenomenon. She has:-

. been called in Ireland a Gaelic Football "sensation"
. played in the 2018 All Ireland Gaelic Football GF in front of 50,000+ (world record, for any female sport, H & A female stand-alone game- non-international)
. represented Ireland in U19 soccer &, amazingly, defeated powerhouses England, Sweden, & Spain
. 5 times represented Ireland in senior women's international soccer matches
. rejected a very appealing offer by Atlanta Uni. to play soccer (a financially very lucrative scholarship, to do a Masters Degree- in the very strong US female College soccer comp).

She played well on Sat., kicking 2 goals- & has very good acceleration over 20 mtrs. She also has strong fitness/running prowess, winning the Collingwood 2 km time trial in a very good clip. To go to Gaelic training for home County Mayo, it would take 3 hrs trip- a very driven woman.

GWS's new 2019 Irish player, Y. Bonner, also played well- as did GWS 2nd year Irish woman C. Staunton , one of her 3 goals being a 45 mtr+ drop punt goal.

It can be expected all five 2019 Irish women (some of whom previously played some AF) in 2019 will show considerable improvement the more game time they get.
Staunton had much publicity in Ireland in 2018, when she played in the AFLW. And more Irish women will want to come to Aust. to play in the AFLW. Rowe is already one of the highest paid AFLW players.

 

[Teen Wolf]

The Age's Daniel Cherny and I are on the same page with some things and worlds apart on others, his tips:

North (GF)
Adelaide (PF)
Bulldogs (3rd in Conf A)
Melbourne (4th in Conf A)
Fremantle (5th in Conf A)

GWS (Premiers)
Carlton (PF)
Geelong (3rd in Conf B)
Brisbane (4th in Conf B)
Collingwood (5th in Conf B)

Also, just added a poll to the thread, see above.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Captains' survey:

Which other team apart from your own is most likely to reach the Grand Final?
3 – Adelaide
3 – North Melbourne
2 – Greater Western Sydney
1 – Brisbane Lions
1 – Melbourne

Also, Ellie Blackburn received 4 votes to be the League B&F while Wuetschner got 0 for Leading Goalkicker, which is perhaps another nugget of information for the Most Underrated Player conversation. Conversely, seeing a bit of love for Phoebe McWilliams strengthens my theory that she must be the Jarrad Waite of AFLW.

Other questions revolved around the Rising Star winner and cross-sport converts, with rather unadventurous answers.

 

[samFFC]

Interesting that two AFLW favourites with the bookies (NM and WB) not getting much love in the poll above.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Yeah I didn't expect my flag-fancy views to be quite so common, regardless of sample size. At the same time, I don't wanna say the bookies are clueless but BetEasy and Ladbrokes have Alyssa Mifsud and Ruth Wallace at $17 and $21 for Most Goals... Ridiculous! Sportsbet's $21 and $26 much better value.