AFL 2020 - AFL Round 15 (no aftertiming allowed)

[OhhDeledio]

apologies people that got on my houli bet

 

[HTPunter]

Melbourne have run up the score against shit sides all year - downhill skiing team.

91 v Hawthorn, 88 v Adelaide, 92 v North. These are decent scores in 2020.
They are also one of the best last quarter teams while Sydney are one of the worst.

I'd also normally add the fact that Melbourne have a finals spot to play for while Sydney actually would do well to lose decently (staying 3rd last by %), however I don't think I've seen much to say that actually BENEFITS this current Melbourne team. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt though.

O9.5 goals $1.98 (Lads) - 1.77 on B365
O10.5 goals $2.20 (Beteasy)
O15.5 points 4th quarter $1.88 (SB) - is 17.5 on Lads
Race to 15 4th quarter $2.05 (Lads)
Race to 20 4th quarter $2.60 (Lads)
Fritsch 2+ $2.35 (Lads)
Melksham 2+ $3 (Lads)

 

[Robo87]

apologies people that got on my houli bet

i looked at his stats, it seemed a reasonable chance. so thought it was ok. but i forgot freo seem to screw with normal stats and ruin games.

 

[burge13]

apologies people that got on my houli bet

It wasnt your fault. It was mine for tailing and therefore jinxing it...

I know aftertiming isnt allowed but can i call Bolton a useless ****ing campaigner for not getting 15? Or too late.

 

[Del125763]

It wasnt your fault. It was mine for tailing and therefore jinxing it...

I know aftertiming isnt allowed but can i call Bolton a useless ******* campaigner for not getting 15? Or too late.

You can definitely call him that. It was a weird game. Freo dominated the clearances, especially with Fyfe in there. Martin, Bolton and Cotchin had unusually quite games.

Commentator did mention that Richmond are the 14th highest disposal team in the comp. I definitely have to do a bit more research next time.

 

[Del125763]

In terms of voting, wouldn't hold it back to you if you went

3 Fyfe, 2 Acres, 1 Tom Lynch

lean towards Fyfe getting full votes for his 9 clearances. None of the Richmond mids played that well tonight.

 

[Bazza97]

Bets for tomorrow

Multis

Fritsch AGS, Papley AGS & Florent 15+ disp $2.62 Neds boosted to $2.77
Petracca AGS, Melksham AGS & Weideman AGS $3.10 BE
Reid AGS & Papley 2+ $4.40 BE

Singles

Papley 2+ $2.20 TAB
Hayward AGS $2.75 TAB
Hayward 2+ $9.50 SB
Dawson AGS $3.25 BE
Dawson 2+ $15 BE

 

[dontlimitme]

$70 Ricardi 2g+/Whitfield Most Disp Grp A @ 10.35 boosted LADS
$20 Ricardi 2g+/Coniglio Most Disp Grp A @ 20.61 LADS
$10 Ricardi 2g+/Taranto Most Disp Grp A @ 31.76 LADS

 

[demon_fanatic]

Yeh I middled the line -26.5 rich then +28.5 freo $100 ew at $1.90/$1.95 odds,I got very lucky to break even as I was on Richmond total spread at 73 hitting the middle on siren canceled out that losing bet luckily, seen Lynch miss those sitters too

 

[Bazza97]

Sneaky bonus bet on Lads
Dawson AGS, Hayward AGS, Reid AGS & Papley 2+ $25.27 boosted to $30.12

 

[Del125763]

Not playing goalscorers . Sense tomorrow's game will be cagey from start to end for Swans v Demons.

 

[TryAnHit]

Yeh I middled the line -26.5 rich then +28.5 freo $100 ew at $1.90/$1.95 odds,I got very lucky to break even as I was on Richmond total spread at 73 hitting the middle on siren canceled out that losing bet luckily, seen Lynch miss those sitters too

Just for info
You need 3pts at 1.93 for a middle to be +ev or else you are losing

 

[balmainforever]

In terms of voting, wouldn't hold it back to you if you went

3 Fyfe, 2 Acres, 1 Tom Lynch

lean towards Fyfe getting full votes for his 9 clearances. None of the Richmond mids played that well tonight.

Fyfe getting 3 votes vs Richmond is pretty much normal anyway

 

[Del125763]

In 2019, Demons ranked 13th for average Disposals For, Swans Ranked 8th for average Disposals For.
In 2020, Demons ranked 8th for average Disposals For (299.5), Swans Ranked 10th for average Disposals For (293.9).

In terms of conceding Disposals

In 2019, Demons ranked 10th for Disposals conceded, Swans ranked 15th for average Disposals Conceded
In 2020, Demons ranked 4th for average Disposals conceded (303.7), Swans ranked 12th for average Disposals Conceded (294.9).

Can see the Demons total possessions possibly landing around the 294 to 300 mark possibly as a team. I guess it also indicates that reinforces is that the Swans play a slow style of football, they don't really look to move the ball on quickly or look for cheap possies (apart from Jake Lloyd). Demons don't seem to care if they concede possession, in their will to attack.

 

[BloodRet]

Reid 2+
Fritsch
Weideman
@6.30 boosted sb

 

[OhhDeledio]

if any swans supporters can help me out, who are the main swans wingers...thurlow and florent?

 

[md20]

Sydney are 17th in Goals For and Melbourne are 2nd for Goals Against.
Meaning Swans can't kick goals and Melbourne are good at not allowing goals kicked against them.
So based on stats, AGS for Swans players should be very limited.

That means tonight, Swans will win 30+ with 4 multiple goal kickers, 4 single goal kickers, and Papley with 5+



On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

Lloyd/ Oliver both 25+ -TAB special $3
Don’t mind this, multi on SB nets $2.30 so it’s a healthy boost. Lloyd should get plenty of pigeon stats in the backline. Has sailed over the last 6 games, Oliver only 7/13 but feel he will rack them up tonight in a contested game

 

[Del125763]

Cazaly's Stadium was traditionally a lower scoring ground based on previous season matches played there.

Average under the scaled back 16 minute quarters is 118.4 pts per game, median is 130.4 pts per game. (8 matches)

The line is set at 117.5 pts on Sportsbet.

I reckon the way Sydney play, will be lucky to get overs on that.

Be wary of backing goals or goalscorers in this game.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Just for info
You need 3pts at 1.93 for a middle to be +ev or else you are losing

Huh? I knew I was risking $10 worst case on the middle but thought I'd give it a crack, normally wouldn't do a 2 point total middle but was bored Haha

 

[demon_fanatic]

Anyone think Carlton can go with GWS off the 3 day break ? Has any team won yet off the shortest possible break??

 

[NonPhixion]

Anyone think Carlton can go with GWS off the 3 day break ? Has any team won yet off the shortest possible break??

I’d avoid betting on GWS games. Who knows wtf those clowns are going to do

 

[GROTTO]

I’d avoid betting on GWS games. Who knows wtf those clowns are going to do

Like vintage Ferrari's. Never know how they will run on the day, but great to look at.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Yeh true but they seem to actually turn up with Greene in and Riccardi has made a huge difference, they looked happy, engaged and good ball movement last week plus the extra day break but yeh who knows if theyll repeat it,with finals showdown possibly looming vs dees you'd hope they'd play good footy to keep season alive

 

[NonPhixion]

Like vintage Ferrari's. Never know how they will run on the day, but great to look at.

unfortunately the mechanic (Leon cameron) has no ****ing clue how to look after such a fine car & so it can breakdown at any time