AFL 2020 - AFL Round 15 (no aftertiming allowed)

[Atavistic]

Chucked a couple dollars on this multi:

Bailey J. Williams 3+
Riccardi 4+
J Thomas 3+
@5208

Honestly can't see how it doesn't get up.









It's possible my Riccardi win from last week has gone to my head.

 

[NYRB]

Think this Hawks team is ripe for the picking tomorrow. No O'Meara, Sicily, Isaac Smith, Shiels, Henderson, Will Day, Hartley, Morrison. 8 of those are in their top 13 for average disposals this season. You also lose the run out of defence from Frost. Patton isn't much of a loss since he always get injured.

Hawks are basically playing without 10 of their best players . I wouldn't be confident if I was a Hawks fan relying on winning the ball from players like: Tom Scully, Howe, Hardwick, Wingard, Scrimshaw and Cousins. 4 of those 6 average less than 15+ disposals a game since Covid 19 break, 1 is a kid that has played only 2 games and Scrimshaw is your 3rd best midfielder listed, averaging 15.22 disposals a game.

Sportsbet have Scrimshaw listed as $1.28 to get 15+ disposals, I wouldn't be too confident that rolls in. Should be around $1.65 or more.

 

[Bazza97]

Getting on Allen 2+, Williams AGS & Mosquito AGS $10.48 NEDS.

 

[Robo87]

taking a chance someone to kick3
1u T.obrien 2g+ @4.25 BE
0.5u T.obrien 3g+ @13 BE
0.3u T.obrien 4g+ @46 BE
1u lewis 2g+ @4.60 BE
0.5u lewis 3g+ @15 BE
0.3u lewis 4g+ @51 BE

1.5u Allen 2g+ @3 lads
1u Allen 3g+ @8 lads
0.5u Allen 4g+ @26 lads
1u williams 2g+ @6 sb (got on early before it came in)
0.5u williams 3g+ @21 sb
0.2u williams 4g+ @101 sb
0.6u D smith ags @2.80 sb
0.5u D smith 2g+@13 sb
0.2u D smith 3g+@91 sb
0.5u sgm- allen ags, williams ags @2.50 lads
0.5u sgm- allen 2g, williams ags @5.48 lads
0.5u sgm- allen ags, williams 2g @5.50 sb

Also don’t mind Beteasy/Tab Touch $17 for Mitchell, Worpal, M.Crouch, Laird all 25+. Both sides normally leak plenty of disposals and it’s a bet I could see lobbing at big odds. 3 players hitting is $4.40 too which looks good. Would think Mitchell and M.Crouch hit and one of Worpal/Laird should, hopefully both!!

I like this but i can see one player probably screwing this 4-leg 25+ multi up.. so i agree that 3 is the more likely outcome.
2u on 3players @4.40
2u all 4 players @17 ..profit if atleast 3 hit.

 

[OhhDeledio]

got heaps on m.crouch 25+ @ 1.63 on bet easy, and a bit on 30+ (3.10) and 35+ (14). hawks have been giving up big numbers to oppo mids this year and have let 10 midfielders go 25+ against them in there last 4 games alone.

 

[md20]

got heaps on m.crouch 25+ @ 1.63 on bet easy, and a bit on 30+ (3.10) and 35+ (14). hawks have been giving up big numbers to oppo mids this year and have let 10 midfielders go 25+ against them in there last 4 games alone.

Agree with you on this. M. Crouch a very good chance with 30+.

Also like R. Laird 30+ for the value.
$7 on BE
$4.50 elsewhere..

B. Crouch coming in could affect the chances of this. But 4 opposition players hitting 30+ against the Hawks in the last 3 rounds.
Merrett (36) and McGrath (32) both hitting 30+ in the Hawks last game alone.

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[Kyptastic]

Devon Smith has been playing on the half back flank with McKenna not being picked, wouldn't be going near him for goalscoring options.

 

[alhay6]

Cale Hooker worth a stab $2.65 AGS at Neds/Lads. Kicked 2 when he moved fwd in the second half last week. Named CHF, and Hurley coming in for the smaller Redman should allow him to start up front. Expect Stewart to back up ruck so the Dons likely to play Joey, Hooker and Stewart/Stringer as the talls.

 

[dontlimitme]

Cale Hooker worth a stab $2.65 AGS at Neds/Lads. Kicked 2 when he moved fwd in the second half last week. Named CHF, and Hurley coming in for the smaller Redman should allow him to start up front. Expect Stewart to back up ruck so the Dons likely to play Joey, Hooker and Stewart/Stringer as the talls.

if he does start forward i think this is one of the bets of the round!

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet released their lines for Disposals:

Worpel Under/Over 23.5
Tom Mitchell Under/Over 27.5
Scrimshaw Under/Over 17.5
Brodie Smith Under/Over 18.5
Matt Crouch Under/Over 26.5
Laird Under/Over 22.5

Rounds 2-14 averages for the above players:
Worpel 19.67
Mitchell 25.67
Scrimshaw 15.22
Brodie Smith 18.36
M Crouch 25.73
Laird 21.83


Calling Sportsbet, any chance you can put up the line for Disposals for Keays and Sloane? Cheers

 

[demon_fanatic]

Evening Gents. Best for game 1 tomorrow:

B.Keays 20+ $3.75 pointsbet. Gets less CBA with B.Crouch back but he only had 6% Round 13 and still had 17 vs Cats who are stingy as. Hawthorn leak disposals and should be winning this game but gotta have a go at $3.75 when best I can find elsewhere is $2.60 and most corps around $2.00

M.Lewis Most goals ($21), 2+ ($4.60), 3+ ($15) Beteasy/Tab Touch. Offered nil in 3 games this season but 20 goals in 12 games last year with 6/12 2+ and 3/12 3+ and won’t get a better chance playing Crows.

Also don’t mind Beteasy/Tab Touch $17 for Mitchell, Worpal, M.Crouch, Laird all 25+. Both sides normally leak plenty of disposals and it’s a bet I could see lobbing at big odds. 3 players hitting is $4.40 too which looks good. Would think Mitchell and M.Crouch hit and one of Worpal/Laird should, hopefully both!!

Where are those disposal same game options on touch can't see the 25 disposals one for $17 n $4.40, edit :found the $17 one it's into 9.5;( but can't find the one where three of them get 25

 

[Robo87]

1u Stengle ags @1.95 b365
Only plays forward.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Similar thoughts on Hanrahan $2.35 AGS b365 as Stengle, basically only forward and good goal sense, kicked 0.2 last week but goals in 3 of his other 5 matches, should get some looks tonight

 

[Geeves Train]

Where are those disposal same game options on touch can't see the 25 disposals one for $17 n $4.40, edit :found the $17 one it's into 9.5;( but can't find the one where three of them get 25

Sorry mate. Tab Touch usually have markets that mirror Beteasy but that one doesn’t appear to be on Tab Touch

 

[Bazza97]

All my multis have been on Hawthorn players for this game, so I've decided to go with Stengle AGS, Murphy AGS & Fogarty AGS $5.25 BE

 

[md20]

$95 SB
M. Lewis Most Goals Gr1
M. Crouch Over 26.5
R. Laird Over 22.5

Going strong with Lewis and Laird this game.

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[burge13]

Tex & Breust $2 to each kick a goal at PB. Pays 1.62 at SB

Both out of form but you'd hope 2x teams with nothing to play for are allowed by their coaches to just go out and have fun. Open game, end to end (wishful thinking, it'll no doubt be dour BS like 90% of games)

 

[The Firm]

Not sure if this has been mention before, but sportsbet has a new tab showing punters popular multi, and the part I like, it show how many bandwagon punters there are.

Refer screenshot below.

Could be useful for trend analysis/consensus on bets

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NYRB]

Tex & Breust $2 to each kick a goal at PB. Pays 1.62 at SB

Both out of form but you'd hope 2x teams with nothing to play for are allowed by their coaches to just go out and have fun. Open game, end to end (wishful thinking, it'll no doubt be dour BS like 90% of games)

for some reason, i think the Crows will want that win and if its a scrappy contest, that will favour them.

 

[burge13]

for some reason, i think the Crows will want that win

Easily my biggest pet peeve amongst sports fans is this.

"will want it more", "want to win", "up for this one" etc

They prepare all week for the game, it goes without saying LOL. Not many teams aren't there to win...

 

[Atavistic]

Not sure if this has been mention before, but sportsbet has a new tab showing punters popular multi, and the part I like, it show how many bandwagon punters there are.

Refer screenshot below.

Could be useful for trend analysis/consensus on betsView attachment 950402

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

What if we all end up following Nathan Brown's tips by accident?

 

[Geeves Train]

Easily my biggest pet peeve amongst sports fans is this.

"will want it more", "want to win", "up for this one" etc

They prepare all week for the game, it goes without saying LOL. Not many teams aren't there to win...

Not sure North Melbourne are here to win atm

 

[The Firm]

What if we all end up following Nathan Brown's tips by accident?

Then we get a number of how many mug punters on it!

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Not many teams aren't there to win...

Have you been watching North lately?

 

[md20]

Not sure North Melbourne are here to win atm

Tell last week's me that

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