Analysis 2021 draft thread

[mattsmob]

I hope so.

Who's your top 5 realistic options at pick 14?

 

[blueiris]

Can’t see a need for a small forward

Does seem like we’re all over Chesser Though

Have no problem with a small forward just prefer someone like Sonsie who we’re linked too

 

[M Malice]

If Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmot are both available at 16 who do we take and thereby risk someone taking the other before our pick 20?

 

[Section 5]

Lions picks:14, 18, 41 (412points), 54 (220 points), 60 (146 points) & 76 nil points
EDIT: As briztoon has pointed out we only have 14, 18 & 41 that we are allowed to take to the draft
Only 3 sleeps to go draft watchers

My 2 cents worth on our first 2 picks. My Pick 41 selection will be on a separate post
I think after the top 10 sort themselves out their will be some live trading for a few in the next 10 where our picks lie
So, it would not surprise me if we are one of those in order to get someone we are keen on.
As long as we keep a pick in the 50's that should be okay in my opinion for our third selection

I don't watch any of the under age games so going solely off recent BF Draft Hub & Phantom Draft, AFL site, player videos & Rookie Me Central's player profile information which is excellent. And anything else i could read in the last few days
I came to the conclusion that having 2 top 20 picks this year should be beneficial as we may get two very good players
Hopefully one of the below two picks mentioned gets to the Lions.
The Club recruiters are obviously in a far better position to judge so anything they select i will be fine with

Pick 14 (16) Josh Goater: 190cm 80Kg
A fair bit written about him but i like that he could slot in various roles. Also he should fill out nicely being only 80kg but 190cm tall at present
But the video highlights was what convinced me in the end. Video below for anyone who may not have seen his highlights. Number 24 blue Vic Metro.

Below is part of Rookie Me Central's player profile on Goater

"Up forward, Goater is a marking threat with his leap and clean hands overhead, and dexterity at ground level. As a defender, he is a high production play maker averaging almost 30 disposals in the last three games of NAB League action. It’s his midfield craft which looks most exciting though, with his athletic traits, vision, clean hands and ability to win his own ball at the coalface all valuable commodities in modern AFL."





Pick 18 (20) Darcy Wilmot: 183cm 75kg
Youngest player in the draft (made it by 1 day) but already looks an AFL player.
So being young their should be no pressure on him the first year. Because of his age he may also get a little taller and heavier by the end of 2022.
Can see him also playing wing & later a run in the middle.
Below video for those that may not have seen it. Number 9 blue Vic Metro

 

[mattsmob]

If Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmot are both available at 16 who do we take and thereby risk someone taking the other before our pick 20?

I'm taking Chesser and reasonably comfortably, I like Wilmot but the gap between he and say an Answerth wouldn't be big enough to warrant passing on someone with the upside of Chesser. I also like Brown as a backup to Wilmot as a general defender.

 

[blueiris]

I’m guessing I’m probably the only one on our board that’s not rapped up with Wilmot highlights package these are usually the best of a player he just looks like that vanilla defender to me when players like Chesser and Sonsie show more of that ex-factor highlights packages

 

[Dalions]

I’m guessing I’m probably the only one on our board that’s not rapped up with Wilmot highlights package these are usually the best of a player he just looks like that vanilla defender to me when players like Chesser and Sonsie show more of that ex-factor highlights packages

Maybe the club are looking for a replacement for Starcevich in defense so Starce can move up the ground a bit.
Therefore we may not be looking for flash, just a good honest and tough dour lock down defender.
Wilmot seems tailer made for that role.

 

[POBT]

Maybe the club are looking for a replacement for Starcevich in defense so Starce can move up the ground a bit.
Therefore we may not be looking for flash, just a good honest and tough dour lock down defender.
Wilmot seems tailer made for that role.

He does. It's just that, when I think top 20 pick, I don't think dour defender.

Having said that, I think Wilmot does offer something more than as a lockdown defender.

I've heard a few people talking about Wilmot replacing Answerth. I wouldn't underestimate the coaching staff's regard for Noah. From what I gather, they are very happy to be getting him back in the side.

 

[Section 5]

Lions 3rd Draft pick presently pick 41

We may use pick 41, 54 and 60 to slightly improve our early selection picks. EDIT: As briztoon has pointed out we have lost 54, 60
As long as we get back something in the 50's i think we can get my 3rd selection
Happy to pay what others will think overs (41) but i believe no matter what we need an experienced player to add to our list
At least a player that may be able to vie for a spot in our forward line until Hippy returns
So we take 2 players for the future and one hopefully ready to help us out in our premiership window

My 3rd pick: Jack Hayes 192cm 91kg

2021 SANFL Post Season Top 50 – 1-10

1 - Jack Hayes (Woodville-West Torrens)
Woodville-West Torrens coach, and West End State coach, Jade Sheedy selected Jack Hayes to captain the Croweaters largely on the back of his ability to lead through his on-field actions, setting the tone with his brilliance around the ground. Little did Sheedy realise at the time, his star utility would be doing so once again in the most important game of the year. Despite carrying a painful leg injury suffered at training, Hayes was a fitting winner of the Jack Oatey Medal adding to his accolade of being selected at centre half-forward of The Advertiser SANFL Team of the Year. Runner-up in both the Magarey Medal and Eagles best-and-fairest, Hayes was also fifth in the Shearman Medal and placed second in the competition for average Champion Data ranking points. This is because 192cm star impacts games in several aspects, including eye-catching intercept marks, together with hitting the scoreboard and acting as an extra midfielder when pinch-hitting in the ruck.
..........................

Below from a foxsports article dated 11/11/2021

Jack Hayes (Woodville-West Torrens – SANFL)
Age: 24
Position: Utility (192cm, 91kg)

Perhaps he can be ignored no longer. With 123 goals from 93 games, Hayes has been a SANFL star for years. This year, he finished with a highly unusual – yet mightily impressive – set of statistics. The 192cm utility averaged just under 20 disposals, 2.4 clearances, 2.1 intercept marks, 7.1 score involvements and 1.1 goals. In Round 14 against West Adelaide, Hayes booted 2.4 from 29 disposals and a lazy 20 marks (seven intercept marks). He then produced one of his best games for the season in the Eagles’ grand final triumph, booting 1.2 from 26 disposals, nine marks and seven clearances to win the Jack Oatey medal for best in ground. A rare key forward, key defender, midfielder set of numbers that no doubt would’ve caught recruiters’ eyes.



Trouble finding any suitable videos
First one only 30 seconds from 2021

2nd one from way back in Sep 2018 Preliminary Final. Number 12 yellow Eagles

 

[mattsmob]

He does. It's just that, when I think top 20 pick, I don't think dour defender.

Having said that, I think Wilmot does offer something more than as a lockdown defender.

I've heard a few people talking about Wilmot replacing Answerth. I wouldn't underestimate the coaching staff's regard for Noah. From what I gather, they are very happy to be getting him back in the side.

Yeah I'm not sold Starce is moving into the midfield just yet either way however I think Answerth is penciled in to replace him as the lockdown small. I do like Wilmot but not to take him above guys like Chesser, Draper, Sonsie etc.

 

[mpal6]

If Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmot are both available at 16 who do we take and thereby risk someone taking the other before our pick 20?

I think we have to take Wilmot if we really want him. He'll be gone before 20.

Richmond would see him as Houli replacement, Sydney and Melbourne when they go best available would see Wilmot's bottom age / scope to develop as a big attraction. He has a solid set of skills to build on already.

 

[Dalions]

He does. It's just that, when I think top 20 pick, I don't think dour defender.

Having said that, I think Wilmot does offer something more than as a lockdown defender.

I've heard a few people talking about Wilmot replacing Answerth. I wouldn't underestimate the coaching staff's regard for Noah. From what I gather, they are very happy to be getting him back in the side.

We took Starcevich in a similar position in the draft and that is pretty much how we use him.
Wilmot has some run and dare to his game so he is definitely not just a lock down defender but he may start that way.

 

[mattsmob]

I think we have to take Wilmot if we really want him. He'll be gone before 20.

Richmond would see him as Houli replacement, Sydney and Melbourne when they go best available would see Wilmot's bottom age / scope to develop as a big attraction. He has a solid set of skills to build on already.

Same could be said for Chesser, is probably closer to Houli's style of play and fits with Melbourne's endurance and two way running.
More I think about it Chesser could be the ideal future wingman for us, can run all day, is quick and agile, can take a mark and is a nice ball user.

 

[briztoon]

Lions picks:14, 18, 41 (412points), 54 (220 points), 60 (146 points) & 76 nil points
Only 3 sleeps to go draft watchers

My 2 cents worth on our first 2 picks. My Pick 41 selection will be on a separate post
I think after the top 10 sort themselves out their will be some live trading for a few in the next 10 where our picks lie
So, it would not surprise me if we are one of those in order to get someone we are keen on.
As long as we keep a pick in the 50's that should be okay in my opinion for our third selection

I don't watch any of the under age games so going solely off recent BF Draft Hub & Phantom Draft, AFL site, player videos & Rookie Me Central's player profile information which is excellent. And anything else i could read in the last few days
I came to the conclusion that having 2 top 20 picks this year should be beneficial as we may get two very good players
Hopefully one of the below two picks mentioned gets to the Lions.
The Club recruiters are obviously in a far better position to judge so anything they select i will be fine with

Pick 14 (16) Josh Goater: 190cm 80Kg
A fair bit written about him but i like that he could slot in various roles. Also he should fill out nicely being only 80kg but 190cm tall at present
But the video highlights was what convinced me in the end. Video below for anyone who may not have seen his highlights. Number 24 blue Vic Metro.

Below is part of Rookie Me Central's player profile on Goater

"Up forward, Goater is a marking threat with his leap and clean hands overhead, and dexterity at ground level. As a defender, he is a high production play maker averaging almost 30 disposals in the last three games of NAB League action. It’s his midfield craft which looks most exciting though, with his athletic traits, vision, clean hands and ability to win his own ball at the coalface all valuable commodities in modern AFL."





Pick 18 (20) Darcy Wilmot: 183cm 75kg
Youngest player in the draft (made it by 1 day) but already looks an AFL player.
So being young their should be no pressure on him the first year. Because of his age he may also get a little taller and heavier by the end of 2022.
Can see him also playing wing & later a run in the middle.
Below video for those that may not have seen it. Number 9 blue Vic Metro

Sorry Section 5, we’ve lost those late picks that we don’t have the list spots for.

This article has the updated picks each team has.

Though a lot of teams are expected to pass on their late picks, and push them in to the rookie draft and SSP.

FINAL DRAFT ORDER: Check out your club's picks

Check out all your club's picks ahead of the 2021 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Section 5]

I don't see Wilmot as a lockdown defender
More of a Rich/Birchall type role if he plays down back. Although he looks a much better mark than those two
Can see him being played in a variety of positions in the VFL before settling into a position
If he comes to us i don't see him playing in the seniors early
If good enough maybe later in the year

 

[POBT]

We took Starcevich in a similar position in the draft and that is pretty much how we use him.
Wilmot has some run and dare to his game so he is definitely not just a lock down defender but he may start that way.

It's a strange distinction but I feel like we drafted Starcevich thinking the ceiling was probably higher than the role he is currently playing. That plenty of supporters (not me) think we should look at moving him into the midfield is illustrative of that.

I think it is one thing to use a high draft pick on a talented player and then have them find a niche role that suits the team. But to draft someone to play back pocket is the kind of thing I think you do in the third round.

But I'm also conscious that Wilmot, like others, missed out on the chance to show he was more than a good back man due to the season shutdown.

 

[Section 5]

Sorry Section 5, we’ve lost those late picks that we don’t have the list spots for.

This article has the updated picks each team has.

Though a lot of teams are expected to pass on their late picks, and push them in to the rookie draft and SSP.

FINAL DRAFT ORDER: Check out your club's picks

Check out all your club's picks ahead of the 2021 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Yes i forgot about the picks to list spots
I imagine the club tried to do something but no takers

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Stay with me here, but we should've delisted a player or two with the view of redrafting them with a 5th round pick noce we'd made some trades. you know, to keep our options open. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Berrygood]

Was reading on Zero Hanger that Connor Ballenden has joined Woodville-West in SA for next season. Good on him if it's right, hope he goes well.

 

[briztoon]

Who's your top 5 realistic options at pick 14?

At 16.
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR

My cynicism says we’re targeting JVR and Wilmot at our first two picks. It will be a very needs based draft (from my point of view).

But JVR and Wilmot are in a group of 9 players I believe make up the next tier, after the top 15 players most likely to go in the first 15 picks.

They top 15 players I expect to go before our first pick are; Horne-Francis, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Ward, Andrew, Rachelle, Erasmus, Johnson, Amiss, Wanganeen-Milera, Sinn and Goater.

But what GWS do at 15, I have no idea. If they go with Callaghan’s mate Howes, then someone is slipping out of those 15 players. Most likely one of Amiss, Andrew or Goater.

So after the top 15, I would have the following players in order;
Sonsie
Chesser
Fahey
Draper
Butler
Brown
Wilmot
Bazzo
Van Rooyen

Again my opinion, there’s then a gap to the next tier of players.

If the club is locked in to JVR (again, this supposition is just my gut feel), then we hope one of Chesser or Wilmot is available at our second pick.

If we draft Chesser at our second pick, then we hope a player like Lewis Rayson is available at our third pick.

If we draft Wilmot at our second pick, then we hope Sam Banks is still available at our third pick.

For me, Banks is somewhat a similar type to Prior. He has good athleticism and speed, but not top line speed like Sinn or Chesser. He’s got a good kick, but usually takes the safe options and plays a very team oriented game. He’s also a leader, being captain of Tasmania. He’s a very Brisbane type of player.

 

[mattsmob]

At 16.
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR

My cynicism says we’re targeting JVR and Wilmot at our first two picks. It will be a very needs based draft (from my point of view).

But JVR and Wilmot are in a group of 9 players I believe make up the next tier, after the top 15 players most likely to go in the first 15 picks.

They top 15 players I expect to go before our first pick are; Horne-Francis, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Ward, Andrew, Rachelle, Erasmus, Johnson, Amiss, Wanganeen-Milera, Sinn and Goater.

But what GWS do at 15, I have no idea. If they go with Callaghan’s mate Howes, then someone is slipping out of those 15 players. Most likely one of Amiss, Andrew or Goater.

So after the top 15, I would have the following players in order;
Sonsie
Chesser
Fahey
Draper
Butler
Brown
Wilmot
Bazzo
Van Rooyen

Again my opinion, there’s then a gap to the next tier of players.

If the club is locked in to JVR (again, this supposition is just my gut feel), then we hope one of Chesser or Wilmot is available at our second pick.

If we draft Chesser at our second pick, then we hope a player like Lewis Rayson is available at our third pick.

If we draft Wilmot at our second pick, then we hope Sam Banks is still available at our third pick.

For me, Banks is somewhat a similar type to Prior. He has good athleticism and speed, but not top line speed like Sinn or Chesser. He’s got a good kick, but usually takes the safe options and plays a very team oriented game. He’s also a leader, being captain of Tasmania. He’s a very Brisbane type of player.

Yep agree on the top 15 and if one were to slip I'd take them all bar maybe Amiss. After watching more of Sonsie his clean hands, movement through traffic and ability to find an open target by hand or foot have really impressed me, has got some deficiencies that could really hurt his chances with us, mainly his defensive work but off half-forward/mid could be a real player.

 

[jjami15]

At 16.
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR
JVR

My cynicism says we’re targeting JVR and Wilmot at our first two picks. It will be a very needs based draft (from my point of view).

But JVR and Wilmot are in a group of 9 players I believe make up the next tier, after the top 15 players most likely to go in the first 15 picks.

They top 15 players I expect to go before our first pick are; Horne-Francis, Daicos, Darcy, Callaghan, Hobbs, Gibcus, Ward, Andrew, Rachelle, Erasmus, Johnson, Amiss, Wanganeen-Milera, Sinn and Goater.

But what GWS do at 15, I have no idea. If they go with Callaghan’s mate Howes, then someone is slipping out of those 15 players. Most likely one of Amiss, Andrew or Goater.

So after the top 15, I would have the following players in order;
Sonsie
Chesser
Fahey
Draper
Butler
Brown
Wilmot
Bazzo
Van Rooyen

Again my opinion, there’s then a gap to the next tier of players.

If the club is locked in to JVR (again, this supposition is just my gut feel), then we hope one of Chesser or Wilmot is available at our second pick.

If we draft Chesser at our second pick, then we hope a player like Lewis Rayson is available at our third pick.

If we draft Wilmot at our second pick, then we hope Sam Banks is still available at our third pick.

For me, Banks is somewhat a similar type to Prior. He has good athleticism and speed, but not top line speed like Sinn or Chesser. He’s got a good kick, but usually takes the safe options and plays a very team oriented game. He’s also a leader, being captain of Tasmania. He’s a very Brisbane type of player.

I can’t deny it but I would be a tad upset if we went for JVR at either of our first rounders. Due to limited viewing this year I have not jumped on anyone’s wagon. However, JVR has not shown much to me at all (I watched the games against SA) and perplexed as to why he is so highly rated, possibly due to limited talls this year. Plus he would be a third tall and not a true KPP so for those types I would expect them to be elite in a specific area especially intercept marking or contested marking something that he doesn’t present as having. What stand out attribute does he have?

 

[dlanod]

Stay with me here, but we should've delisted a player or two with the view of redrafting them with a 5th round pick noce we'd made some trades. you know, to keep our options open. What could possibly go wrong?

It'd only make sense if we ensured we were doing it with a top 10 player on our team.

 

[briztoon]

I can’t deny it but I would be a tad upset if we went for JVR at either of our first rounders. Due to limited viewing this year I have not jumped on anyone’s wagon. However, JVR has not shown much to me at all (I watched the games against SA) and perplexed as to why he is so highly rated, possibly due to limited talls this year. Plus he would be a third tall and not a true KPP so for those types I would expect them to be elite in a specific area especially intercept marking or contested marking something that he doesn’t present as having. What stand out attribute does he have?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Yep agree on the top 15 and if one were to slip I'd take them all bar maybe Amiss.

There was a time when I wouldn't have wanted Amiss, but I've come to the position that he wouldn't be a bad pick for us. He can lead, take a contested grab and kick straight, which is all you really need from a tall forward. He also brings something different to our existing crop of forwards. My major concern with Joe, Hip and McStay is that they're all somewhat similar players, contested markers who do a lot of good work up the ground, whereas Amiss is built to play out of the goalsquare and be a leading target. Charlie Cameron does that for us, I hear you all say, but Amiss brings two things Charlie doesn't have: height and strong consistency. He played 10 colts games this year and kicked 2+ goals in 8 of them.

I'm also not convinced by our options behind our big three tall forwards. I haven't written off Fullarton completely but he hasn't shown me anything in forward 50 yet to be confident in him making it there, and we have no idea if Henry Smith will make it either.

If our first pick was any higher, I wouldn't bother with Amiss. In fact I'd probably pick Sonsie over him at 16. But I wouldn't be disappointed if we drafted him, because I see what he can bring to us.

After watching more of Sonsie his clean hands, movement through traffic and ability to find an open target by hand or foot have really impressed me, has got some deficiencies that could really hurt his chances with us, mainly his defensive work but off half-forward/mid could be a real player.

Good analysis. I think defensive work is something that can be improved with good coaching, but the natural instinct to weave through traffic is something that can't be taught. If we drafted Sonsie, I'd back our coaching staff to get the best out of him.

I can’t deny it but I would be a tad upset if we went for JVR at either of our first rounders. Due to limited viewing this year I have not jumped on anyone’s wagon. However, JVR has not shown much to me at all (I watched the games against SA) and perplexed as to why he is so highly rated, possibly due to limited talls this year. Plus he would be a third tall and not a true KPP so for those types I would expect them to be elite in a specific area especially intercept marking or contested marking something that he doesn’t present as having. What stand out attribute does he have?

Contested marking. He might be the best contested mark in the whole draft. His height is less than ideal for taking on today's monster forwards, but no one can deny he's quite physically developed and strong for his age. I do wonder how much he would be able to improve his strength from here, however I'm not very knowledgeable on the subject.

I wouldn't be impressed with us selecting JVR at 16, because I don't think we really lack for physically strong key defenders (Marcus Adams and Jack Payne say hi). I'd prefer a strong intercepter like Leek Alleer, but we can probably get him at 20, maybe even further back. And next year is apparently full of good talls, one of whom we could trade back in for after Ashcroft has been selected.