Analysis 2021 draft thread

[almagoo]

The two draft prospects that shone in AFL Academy training session

"They were excellent."

www.sen.com.au

 

[briztoon]

Wilmot was seen as a player that would have been a top ten draft pick in 2022 had he been born a say later. We rated Lohmann three spots under Wilmot.

I’m not agreeing with Jackess, and I will not engage him a futile discussion.

But…

Yes we rated Lohman 3 spots behind Wilmot. But our list was not a list of best available possible talent, but heavily influenced by club needs. Our recruiter specifically discussed this when discussing why Lohman was rated where he was by the club.

 

[scoman]

In 2018 we essentially downgraded our own first and our future first by swapping Beams for Neale. Not bad really although we spent our best pick on E Smith.

In 2019 we decided to trade out of the first round (Collingwood's pick 16) in a deal with Port Adelaide for their future 1st.

In 2020 we traded out that Port first rounder and our own (18 and 19) to Melbourne for their first this year which ended up being 18.

So we have basically lost that 2019 Collingwood first rounder (16) over the last couple of years. This is what myself and others have been referring to when we say that the pick 18 we held this year cost us a lot. It had the value of two first round picks.

To then use it on a player who may very well have been available mid to late second round is pretty annoying. Trade wise it's like us paying picks 16 and 18 for pick 28. It's not great value wise, in fact it's terrible.

 

[briztoon]

Are halfback and med forward positional needs? I think both kids are a few players back in the depth charts. The way Fages was talking about them it sounded like they really wanted the athletic attributes and the personality of both draftees.

Wilmot, if he lives up to expectations, was discussed as Rich’s future replacement. Different type of player, but was talked about as being an 80 meter type rebounder. But was also highlighted for his defensive capabilities for the position.

We currently don’t have a Lohman type on the team, not a medium sized half forward with his attributes.

Both players were selected with one eye on the future, as it’s unlikely they’ll be physically ready to play next season.

Let’s wait four years before we make any judgments on them.

 

[briztoon]

In 2018 we essentially downgraded our own first and our future first by swapping Beams for Neale. Not bad really although we spent our best pick on E Smith.

In 2019 we decided to trade out of the first round (Collingwood's pick 16) in a deal with Port Adelaide for their future 1st.

In 2020 we traded out that Port first rounder and our own (18 and 19) to Melbourne for their first this year which ended up being 18.

So we have basically lost that 2019 Collingwood first rounder (16) over the last couple of years. This is what myself and others have been referring to when we say that the pick 18 we held this year cost us a lot. It had the value of two first round picks.

To then use it on a player who may very well have been available mid to late second round is pretty annoying. Trade wise it's like us paying picks 16 and 18 for pick 28. It's not great value wise, in fact it's terrible.

I’m with you on how bad our pick trading has been.

Not getting in to the rest of that post.

 

[Mutineer]

Must have kicked a ton of goals at junior level



Because he’s somewhere near his potential which isn’t good enough for AFL level

Yep kicked bags of goals for Lake Wendouree Football Club in the strong Ballarat Football League right through his juniors generally playing against a lot of older boys as well as for St.Pat's in the School system and the Rebels. Big game in the School system Grand Final on BG's back oval in the mud that I was at as well. That's Kai next to Sam Butler at the front pointing at the cup in the pic.

St Patrick's College

www.stpats.vic.edu.au

 

[Gadzorks]

Seems very personable, want Sinn but over the moon we grabbed this young bloke.

Definately a team player from the number of mates celebrating with him.

that's worth a lot.

 

[Gadzorks]

Bris: Future first and 41
for
Freo: Pick 21, future 2nd and 3rd
Who says no? Might be tough to get Freo's pick (next pick) with Johnson still on the board.

If take that in a heartbeat. Good pick this year. And points for next year. What's not to love?

Unless you are Freo, cause then I'd say no Deal.

 

[Gadzorks]

One of the many things we don't know is how much development each draftee has gone through. MAYBE we tend toward country kids cause they are comparable even though they have had less development. The risk is there, but the payout can be bigger.

Especially in a covid year.

 

[notting18]

So we have basically lost that 2019 Collingwood first rounder (16) over the last couple of years. This is what myself and others have been referring to when we say that the pick 18 we held this year cost us a lot. It had the value of two first round picks.

Regardless of what you think about the decisions - what the draft pick cost is a trading issue not a drafting issue.

 

[iBeng]

Can we confirm we are, quote, bullish about our picks so far?

 

[dlanod]

You asked why take a small forward at pick 20. I’d take a Heeney or Bailey Smith at that pick.

Building a premiership team means taking some risk on occasion for higher reward. Wilmot looks a pretty safe bet so happy to take a bit more risk with the second pick.




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Hell, Rachele was being referred to as a small forward in this very draft - imagine if we took him in the top 10!

 

[dlanod]

Just on tonight.

Geelong was mentioned by our recruiters as have a strong interest in Lohman with their early 20’s pick. It was also mentioned that one or two other teams with early to mid second round picks were interested in Lohman.

Twomey’s information about Lohman basically came from our recruiters in a circuitous manner.

Not convinced about that last point - you say the recruiters mentioned Geelong, however Toomey linked Kai to North (in his Phantom's notes) and Hawthorn (in his post-draft wrap). It sounds like completely seperate sources given the team members explicitly associated to each.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Would have liked to see us pick up Johnson, obviously not rated by the team, so oh well.

Lets not get wrapped up in the Pendles comparisons, if that’s remotely true the kid wouldn’t have got outside the top 10 let alone top 20. Our projected midfield isn’t a huge concern to me, Berry, Dev, Hugh and potentially Ashcroft works longterm, throw in stints from Bailey, Rayner and potentially a surprise (Starce, Prior, Sharp) so I don’t see us falling off a cliff.

The one thing the two draftees have, is a clear path in our future team, helps when we’ve drafted with an eye on needs.

Adding young talent to an already talented list is a win, look forward to see the boys play for us now

 

[irish]

I see on the fb lions site Kai missed a welcome call from the coach that was being videoed , not a positive start
Hope he rang back !

 

[BrisVegasDru]

This would be why I don’t have faith in our recruiters. Not many wins recently

2013 draft - solid draft helped us through a tough patch
Aish -fail
Gardiner - pass
McStay - pass
Taylor - pass
Cutler- pass
NRobbo- pass

2015 draft - shocking

Schache - fail
Hipwood - free hit
Keays - fail (mismanaged)
Matho - pass
Skinner - fail

2016 draft - win despite wasting 2 early second rounders in a strong draft

Clug - win
Berry - pass
Witherden - fail
Cox - fail
Allison - fail
Barrett - fail
Hinge - pass
McInerney - win

2017 draft - pass - what a horrible draft to have pick 1, made good use of late first rounders with a lot of depth in this draft

Rayner - fail
Bailey - win
Starcevich - win
Wooller- fail

2018 - unmitigated failure

ESmith - fail
TBerry - fail
Joyce- fail
McFadyen- fail
Answerth- pass

2019 - pass

Robertson- pass
BSmith- fail
Kiddy - free hit
Prior - pass

2020 - shocking on many levels

BColeman - fail
Sharp - passsee
HSmith - fail

Rayner fail is very harsh, would you say that if he hadnt done his knee, i obviously still have high hopes he will be a 200 game player. Would he be a pass if taken at pick 6?

 

[dlanod]

Rayner fail is very harsh, would you say that if he hadnt done his knee, i obviously still have high hopes he will be a 200 game player. Would he be a pass if taken at pick 6?

Taking the consensus number one option over any 50/50 gambles in the rest of the top 10 is obviously our bad. The recruiting team clearly needs to prioritise getting pick 1 in a better year. I guess alternatively they could've reached for someone against the general consensus and... wait a sec...

 

[T Rick]

So many posters who think they are in the know... fu** me dead. Who isn't to say he would have went pick cats or dogs in early second round which he fits thier type of player?

Also we can still package first rounder next near + 41 for 20 or 21 and pick up a ''slider''.

Lohmann sounds exactly what we need. Posters complain about a boring draft where we take vanilla players like JVR yet we pick up someone who is excitement machine and the lids go off. Laughable.

Well said!

 

[CarterS]

Decent record in drafts, happy to back the team in.
Have to be careful making judgements on players based on a minute or two of youtube highlights.

 

[mpal6]

Can anyone justify the need to spend an early pick on a small forward?

Looks like we went for fast, evasive, attacking players. I'm guessing we get our coalface extractors next year and we have added more outside speed to the list now. Both of them seem to have skills and traits that we don't have a lot in the list currently.

Need a tall with pick 41 and we'll be done.

 

[T Rick]

Went to the Lions draft night function at the Gabba tonight.

We had Darcy Wilmot rated at 11 and Kai Lohmann at 14, we got exactly who the recruiters wanted.

Wow - that is fantastic intel.

 

[Mighty Lions]

I just shut up then? Only praise for our super awesome recruitment team is welcome on here?
In all seriousness I will get behind any player we draft. I'm stoked to get both boys to the club.
My issue is our ridiculous wasting of picks and points over the last couple of years. It's been diabolical. I'm sure someone will lay it all out at some point over the next couple of days, but it wouldn't surprise me if we have squandered a couple of thousand points or the equivalent of a top 5 pick in value in two years.

No. Why go from 1 polar opposite extreme to another? That's another example of your extreme views leaving you open to criticism's. Your opinions are way too critical and unjustified given you have no background into why these picks were taken. You (& a couple of others) talk like you are the ultimate talent scout and know this system better than anyone when in fact (unless you were at an AFL recruitment team) you know not much compared to Conole, Harris & Co. I find them insulting to the club we all support and follow.

 

[jjami15]

There was quite a bit of negotiating going on but nothing coming to anything that The Lions wanted to agree to other than to do what they did. Suffice to say, our club is pleased with their selections thus far in the draft.

Most importantly what do the clubs think of the fox footy telecast? Same old same old and seems to be getting worse each year. Now that’s something to kick off about.

 

[Section 5]

Well the talk before the draft suggested their may be some surprises.
Mainly around lack of games from a few of the states over the last couple of years
I remember reading an article recently about a top 10 rated player (name escapes me) played only about 6 games in 30 months
So it comes as no surprise to me that their were some "bolter" selections
Those being
Pick 15: Aleer to GWS
Pick 18: Sheldrick to Swans
Pick 20: Lohmann to Lions

So 15% of the top 20 selections would be regarded as "bolter" or unexpected selections
However that does not mean these three clubs have made any mistakes in the selections
They all would have done sufficient intel to come up with these selections
We may very well see something similar in tonight's 2nd & 3rd round

 

[Voss the boss]

Am i missing something.... from what i see Wilmot looks good enough for me. Not every player needs to have an X factor - we have quite a few of them. He reads the ball well in the air, attacks it like he wants it and doesn't seem to be rushed or panicked If we pick him - I will start the bandwagon

As the president of the bandwagon.... who's with me now