AFL 2022 AFL Finals - Week 3

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
Geelong's record at the MCG this year:

Rd 1 vs Ess Won by 66 points

Rd 3 vs Coll Won by 13 points (down by three goals at 3/4 time)

Rd 5 vs Haw Lost by 12 points (up by two goals at 3/4 time)

Rd 15 vs Rich Won by 3 points (down by 5 points at 3/4 time)

Rd 18 vs Carl Won by 30 points

QF vs Coll Won by 6 points (down by 7 points at 3/4 time)


---

That's 5/6, but in three of those four wins they were down at 3/4 time.

Could just be one of those quirky coincidences, or maybe there is something to this.

---

Brisbane's record at the MCG this year:

Rd 15 vs Melbourne Lost by 64 points

Rd 20 vs Richmond Lost by 7 points (up by 11 points at 3/4 time)

SF vs Mel Won by 13 points (scores level at 3/4 time)

1/3, small sample size but they also seem to either have blowouts or topsy / turvy arm wrestles.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

B365 Bet Boost:

J Cameron AGS @ $2.00 (my max bet was $40)

T Stewart 20+
J Selwood 20+
M Duncan 20+
Z Tuohy 20+
@ $4
 
Since the introduction of the pre finals bye, the teams who have earned the week off (effectively playing one game in 28 days):

2016:
Geelong lost to Sydney
GWS lost to Bulldogs

2017:
Adelaide beat Geelong
Richmond beat GWS

2018:
Richmond lost to Collingwood
WCE beat Melbourne

2019:
Collingwood lost to GWS
Richmond beat Geelong

2020:
Port lost to Richmond
Brisbane lost to Geelong

2021:
Melbourne beat Geelong
Port lost to Bulldogs


Teams who have earned the SF week off have only won 5/12 matches.

This changes things for me. Geelong and Sydney look good on paper but only once (2017) have both favourites won their PF matchup.
Ive said this before but having the week off is not as big as an advantage as it used to be.


Swans and Cats start favourite but it wont surprise me if either loses this weekend.

Im pretty sure the stats from 1994-2010, it was a pretty strong record for teams with the week off who advanced to the Grand Final.
 
People need to stop betting with them. Its the only way itll improve. Theyre getting worse too

It won't happen though. It's the same model as places like Uber/Uber Eats. Suck people in with cheaper prices, or in SBs case good odds, let people have a few wins, then that makes them think they'll be able to keep doing that forever when in fact it's so much harder now.

2020 I won a 4 or 5 SGMs paying pretty big odds, usually $20+ at least. This year I have done one every Friday night for the whole year, and never really been close. I find that I'm still looking for those $20+ odds (usually more) but now I have to select absolute crap that won't happen to get those odds.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

My AFL prelim finals goals multis

Hipwood 2+ Goals, Sam Reid 2+ Goals @ 8.75 (TopSport Boosted)

Hipwood 3+ Goals, Sam Reid 3+ Goals @ 55.68
 
C Cameron 2+
Daniher
McCarthy
Rohan
Close
J Cameron
Hawkins
@ $11 (B365)

McCarthy
Close
Rohan
@ $4.25 (B365)

Hawkins
J Cameron
C Cameron
Daniher
@ $2.10 (B365)
 
C.Cameron 2+
Stengle 2+
Close
Bailey
Rayner
Miers
$71.38 PB free hit

J.Cameron 3+
Hawkins 2+
Daniher 2+
McCarthy
$10.75 SB free hit

Berry 25+/30+ $5.50/$26 TAB - After 22 in a half last week surely he plays 100% midfield again.
 
10 MIN WARNING TO GO FOR THE PENULTIMATE ROUND IN 2022.

giphy.gif
 
Charlie Cameron ladder

Rationale:

Week of the Charlie
Charles become king
Carlos Alcaraz wins US open
Charlie award on Sunday
Charlie's Cameron to kck a bag

It the week of Charlie's!

2/3/4/5/6 at SB paying 2.12/4.75/12/31/126

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top