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AFL 2022 AFL Round 19
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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2.5u - Davies-Unackie under 27.5 disposals - $1.90 - SB
Career high lines for LDU who has gone under this in 60/66 career games. Line is up where it is after a 5 games stretch of 33, 17, 36, 33, 28. This run of top form has brought his name into the spotlight and now runs the risk of copping a tag from Finn Maginness who has done jobs on Kelly (21) and Dawson (15) over the last two weeks. Happy to back a line that’s at the top on a player with a potential tag risk.
2u - Dangerfield under 23.5 disposals - $1.91 - Ladbrokes
Don’t see Danger as that high disposal player he once was. Since returning from injury he has gone under this in 2/3 and only gone over 62% TOG once showing that he is still building into fitness. Port currently rank as the most restrictive side in the comp for disposals and tend to play a bit more that way when at home.
2.5u - Sydney SU, Adelaide +60.5, under 184.5 - $1.85 - TAB
Play as an SGM. Like this avenue for the Crows who are always competitive. This season they haven’t lost by more than this margin. Bit of wet weather to be surrounding this one, so should bring the game closer together and the total points under. Potential flat spot for the swans coming up against “lesser” opposition.
2u - Dawson 20+ disposals = NO - $2.55 - 365
Teams have finally worked out that Dawson is by far the best and most damaging ball user at the Crows. This has led to disposal counts of 15 and 20 in the last two weeks. Today Dawson comes up against his old side who would already know how good he is internally after his third place finish in their BnF last year. Sydney have been ultra restrictive in giving up disposals all year and have recently used Ryan Clarke as a tagger to shut down opposition best ball users. His recent scalps include, Dale (16), Sinclair (17) and Clark (17). Adding to all of this, Dawson has battled gastro this week, so will likely face less energy as a result.
2.5u - Keays under 28.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Had season low CBA numbers last week and made room for a couple of the young guys to get bigger looks into the guts, this also resulted in a season low disposal count. By all reports this looks set to continue. Tough match up against the Swans so good spot to get on this.
3u - Papley 15+ disposals & AGS - $1.73 - Ladbrokes
As a SGM. Has cleared in each of his last 4 games. This is due to a big rise in CBAs. This was trialled at the end of last season and worked with great success as it allowed Papley to lose his man on the way back to the forward line but also use his explosiveness to impact the play. Has taken a bit of time to build a tank this season due to an interrupted start to the season but really looks to have this role down pat now.
3.5u - Dale over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - PointsBet/365
Has gone over in 10/17 games this year and had games of 32, 16 (tagged), 30 since Daniel has been out of the side. Melbourne are the best side in the comp for opposition designated kick in takers
Career high lines for LDU who has gone under this in 60/66 career games. Line is up where it is after a 5 games stretch of 33, 17, 36, 33, 28. This run of top form has brought his name into the spotlight and now runs the risk of copping a tag from Finn Maginness who has done jobs on Kelly (21) and Dawson (15) over the last two weeks. Happy to back a line that’s at the top on a player with a potential tag risk.
2u - Dangerfield under 23.5 disposals - $1.91 - Ladbrokes
Don’t see Danger as that high disposal player he once was. Since returning from injury he has gone under this in 2/3 and only gone over 62% TOG once showing that he is still building into fitness. Port currently rank as the most restrictive side in the comp for disposals and tend to play a bit more that way when at home.
2.5u - Sydney SU, Adelaide +60.5, under 184.5 - $1.85 - TAB
Play as an SGM. Like this avenue for the Crows who are always competitive. This season they haven’t lost by more than this margin. Bit of wet weather to be surrounding this one, so should bring the game closer together and the total points under. Potential flat spot for the swans coming up against “lesser” opposition.
2u - Dawson 20+ disposals = NO - $2.55 - 365
Teams have finally worked out that Dawson is by far the best and most damaging ball user at the Crows. This has led to disposal counts of 15 and 20 in the last two weeks. Today Dawson comes up against his old side who would already know how good he is internally after his third place finish in their BnF last year. Sydney have been ultra restrictive in giving up disposals all year and have recently used Ryan Clarke as a tagger to shut down opposition best ball users. His recent scalps include, Dale (16), Sinclair (17) and Clark (17). Adding to all of this, Dawson has battled gastro this week, so will likely face less energy as a result.
2.5u - Keays under 28.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365
Had season low CBA numbers last week and made room for a couple of the young guys to get bigger looks into the guts, this also resulted in a season low disposal count. By all reports this looks set to continue. Tough match up against the Swans so good spot to get on this.
3u - Papley 15+ disposals & AGS - $1.73 - Ladbrokes
As a SGM. Has cleared in each of his last 4 games. This is due to a big rise in CBAs. This was trialled at the end of last season and worked with great success as it allowed Papley to lose his man on the way back to the forward line but also use his explosiveness to impact the play. Has taken a bit of time to build a tank this season due to an interrupted start to the season but really looks to have this role down pat now.
3.5u - Dale over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - PointsBet/365
Has gone over in 10/17 games this year and had games of 32, 16 (tagged), 30 since Daniel has been out of the side. Melbourne are the best side in the comp for opposition designated kick in takers
- Sep 25, 2013
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**** man there’s some clouds again but it should be ok
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CCJ train with Larkey a late out
2+ $5.50 PB
3+ $17 PB
4+ $67 PB
5+ $251 SB SGM trick
2+ $5.50 PB
3+ $17 PB
4+ $67 PB
5+ $251 SB SGM trick
- Aug 3, 2020
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Souv Larkey out
- May 20, 2016
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This is a real hail mary, but apparently Josh Rotham is sharing the ruck duties tomorrow with Bailey Williams. He played ruck in the WAFL last week and while he only picked up 14 hitouts, he was able to accumulate 27 disposals and 11 marks so I'm guessing he moves ok around the ground. Here's his fantasy prices on pb, which I'm having a small go at.
No idea if he'll spend any time resting forward, but might be worth chucking a few dollars on given he's priced at defender odds.
2+ @ $23 365
3+ @ $201
No idea if he'll spend any time resting forward, but might be worth chucking a few dollars on given he's priced at defender odds.
2+ @ $23 365
3+ @ $201
- Jan 21, 2013
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50 @16.50
CCJ AGS
Curtis AGS
Moore AGS
Impey AGS
Zuhaar 2+
Bruest 3+
50 @11.75
Heeney 2+
Papsmear 2+
Fog 2+
McAdam AGS
Hayward AGS
CCJ AGS
Curtis AGS
Moore AGS
Impey AGS
Zuhaar 2+
Bruest 3+
50 @11.75
Heeney 2+
Papsmear 2+
Fog 2+
McAdam AGS
Hayward AGS
_ASP3X
Club Legend
- Mar 14, 2022
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Harry Morrison Group B @ $7.50
Spicer 1/2/3/Top @ $2.40/$$9/$34/$101
Harry Morrison gets just as much ball as JOM these days so not sure why his odds are so long in this group. Will all be around the mark and Morrison will probably only need 22-24 touches to win the group. Spicer yet to get his first goal in AFL, no better time to do it than today against mediocre competition. $9 on offer for 2+ are very juicy, I'm on for $100.
Hayward Top Goal Scorer @ $18
Hayward more goals than murphy @ $1.93
McHenry 1/2/3 @ $2.44/$11/$51
Hayward should get a few looks at the goals today but I'm not keen on his odds for 1/2/3 so I've just taken a stab at top scorer as I think $18 is probably too long. He should also definitely get more than Murphy. Murphy's 3 goals last week was an absolute fluke and that plod is usually useless for goals. McHenry bet is a value play, the kid knows where the goals are and will get a couple cracks I reckon so I'll take those odds.
Fun multi for the first couple games:
C Macdonald AGS
J Newcombe AGS
L Parker AGS
C Warner AGS
$50 @ $12
Spicer 1/2/3/Top @ $2.40/$$9/$34/$101
Harry Morrison gets just as much ball as JOM these days so not sure why his odds are so long in this group. Will all be around the mark and Morrison will probably only need 22-24 touches to win the group. Spicer yet to get his first goal in AFL, no better time to do it than today against mediocre competition. $9 on offer for 2+ are very juicy, I'm on for $100.
Hayward Top Goal Scorer @ $18
Hayward more goals than murphy @ $1.93
McHenry 1/2/3 @ $2.44/$11/$51
Hayward should get a few looks at the goals today but I'm not keen on his odds for 1/2/3 so I've just taken a stab at top scorer as I think $18 is probably too long. He should also definitely get more than Murphy. Murphy's 3 goals last week was an absolute fluke and that plod is usually useless for goals. McHenry bet is a value play, the kid knows where the goals are and will get a couple cracks I reckon so I'll take those odds.
Fun multi for the first couple games:
C Macdonald AGS
J Newcombe AGS
L Parker AGS
C Warner AGS
$50 @ $12
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Club Legend
- Mar 14, 2022
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Tailed this one, I like it, only got $11 though
- May 20, 2016
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gl today everyone
D
Del125763
Guest
Under 160.5 pts on Swans v Adelaide @ $1.89 on Smarkets Betting Exchange
Was pi$$ing down this morning and heavy last night. SCG whilst having good drainage, wouldnt be surprise if there are some parts still soggy
Was pi$$ing down this morning and heavy last night. SCG whilst having good drainage, wouldnt be surprise if there are some parts still soggy
Bailey Scott AGS $6 PB
Kicked one last week. Been playing half back under NOble but played on the wing last week and named there again this week. used to play as a floating half forward flanker pre-Noble and has never looked comfortable back imo. Good to see him up the ground again.
Kicked one last week. Been playing half back under NOble but played on the wing last week and named there again this week. used to play as a floating half forward flanker pre-Noble and has never looked comfortable back imo. Good to see him up the ground again.
god besides the good odds PointsBet is lowkey a trash app Larkey is a late out and I don’t get the money back for my bet until after the game make it make sense
Lewis 3+
Breust 2+
Zurhaar2+
Moore 1+
Gunston 1+
Goldstein 1+
Curtis 1+
Ziebel 1+!
@31
Lewis 3+
Breust 2+
Zurhaar2+
Moore 1+
Gunston 1+
Goldstein 1+
Curtis 1+
Ziebel 1+!
@31
- May 20, 2016
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papsmear kicking straight finally
D
Del125763
Guest
Big Texan!
Big Texan!!
Big Texan!!
D
Del125763
Guest
"One Taylor Walker theres only One Taylor walker, One Taylor Walker...................theres only 1"
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- May 20, 2016
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goals raining down in sydney
- Jan 21, 2013
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Just got to hope McAdam isn't injured
- May 20, 2016
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holy **** sydney
- May 20, 2016
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- AFL Club
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norf back to being norf
eh might aswell cash out i dont have a good feeling about McAdam lol
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