AFL 2022 AFL Round 19

[BloodRet]

5 Legs for odds of $126.13? are there some additional legs to that?

Yes there were additional legs, had impey, amartey, spp, and a few others

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Snelling atg@$2.20 SB
2+@$7.75
3+@$34
4+@$191
5+@$1801

Tbh I don’t even know what this bloke looks like but flicking through the SB app he is big odds and has pretty good heat maps the last 2 weeks. Think he may have been discussed in last weeks thread or the one prior. Worth pocket change stakes for mine at those odds.
Should be a good game tomorrow, Will be great weather in Melbourne.View attachment 1454599View attachment 1454600

I like your thinking.

He hasn't kicked more than 2+ in his career and the Bombers board seems to think he is out of form and lucky not to be dropped.

Zero goals from five games so far this season.

Hasn't kicked two in a game since Rd 8 last season, and has scored only four goals total in seventeen matches since then.

This makes me want to play it 'conservative' and stick to the $8.50 for 2+ on offer at tab.

But I also don't want to repress my natural tendencies towards utter degeneracy and panic FOMO

So I'm on 4+ and 5+ at sb as well (@ $224 and $1801).

 

[Selim]

I like your thinking.

He hasn't kicked more than 2+ in his career and the Bombers board seems to think he is out of form and lucky not to be dropped.

Zero goals from five games so far this season.

Hasn't kicked two in a game since Rd 8 last season, and has scored only four goals total in seventeen matches since then.

This makes me want to play it 'conservative' and stick to the $8.50 for 2+ on offer at tab.

But I also don't want to repress my natural tendencies towards utter degeneracy and panic FOMO

So I'm on 4+ and 5+ at sb as well (@ $224 and $1801).

View attachment 1454632

I saw him take a shot from 35m last week and he didn’t make the distance I’m abit worried the smell has no power in those legs

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I saw him take a shot from 35m last week and he didn’t make the distance I’m abit worried the smell has no power in those legs

Based on this new information, if they offered 6+ I'd be all over that, too.

 

[Selim]

Riccadi 2-4 @2.84, 7.48, 25

Silvagni 2-4 @4.25, 13, 41

Motlop 2-3 @3.60, 10.50

Brown 2-3 @4.75, 15

 

[BloodRet]

Based on this new information, if they offered 6+ I'd be all over that, too.

LOL

 

[Man of leisure]

I saw him take a shot from 35m last week and he didn’t make the distance I’m abit worried the smell has no power in those legs

Maybe the geezer is sandbagging it to get better odds for this week. Amazing he’s getting that much ball that close to goal and not registering even a behind

 

[mouncey2franklin]

What am I missing here when it comes to Waterman?

Heat map from last week is old fashioned full forward type stuff.

Kicked 3.1 last week.

Paying $10 for 3+ and $40 for 4+ on TAB.

 

[dontlimitme]

snelling kicking 5+, that'll just about ****ing do me mouncey

 

[Atavistic]

I like your thinking.

He hasn't kicked more than 2+ in his career and the Bombers board seems to think he is out of form and lucky not to be dropped.

Zero goals from five games so far this season.

Hasn't kicked two in a game since Rd 8 last season, and has scored only four goals total in seventeen matches since then.

This makes me want to play it 'conservative' and stick to the $8.50 for 2+ on offer at tab.

But I also don't want to repress my natural tendencies towards utter degeneracy and panic FOMO

So I'm on 4+ and 5+ at sb as well (@ $224 and $1801).

View attachment 1454632

Snelling 5+ into Collingwood +25.5 is paying 2501. But this is basically throwing away money. Unless he somehow kicks a couple, then you might get a juicy cashout option.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

this is basically throwing away money

Welcome to the bigfooty punting board, friend.

Wise fellas like you and Oh Ok, I respect your hustle, you are better footy gambling analysts than me.

But amidst all the statistical models and spreadsheets and what have you, are we not losing something important?

Something abstract. Something intangible.

Something difficult to describe but which so many of us feel, especially when our trains come home.

In my case, I'm still up for the year. Rochelle and a couple others in Rds 1/2 made bank.

Since then I've been slowly but surely losing what I won, in fact I'm down 50% from my 2022 peak.

Yes, I keep spreadsheets, and I'm proud of how closely I watch my punting.

But if I were to take this stuff too seriously, I'd lose 90% of the fun which the punt brings me.

Sure, Snelling will probably give us a potato man performance tomorrow.

I'll have egg on my face for the umpteenth time.

But on those rare occasions when the longshot comes in, it makes all the egg on face worthwhile.

The thrill of seeing some spud kick two by half time, waiting to see if he kicks four to really cash in...

I missed the Ziebell train earlier this year. It is one of my greatest regrets of the past few years.

And I've made a lot of mistakes these past few years. I'm not just talking about gambling, either.

But I know that one day there'll be another Ziebell train.

Or another Collingwood - Richmond draw / unders @ $101.

Or another Dom Sheed 3+ @ 100.

When that next train is at the station, I plan to be there, waiting to buy my tickets.

And when that train comes home, I'll be here on the churf footy punting board, celebrating with my fellow degens.

That's why I punt. For the thrill of it.

Is it throwing money away? Yes, most of the time.

But so long as I start the season with a Gulden or a Rochelle, I'm playing with house money anyhow.

I'm throwing their money back at them, which in some ways is only fair (even though I detest sb).

If dudes like dontlimitme and bloodret ever disappeared from this forum, I'd miss them.

They may not be as technical as proper analysts like yourself and Oh Ok, but they add something special.

Not just to this forum but to the punt.

I'd miss you guys too, don't get me wrong.

You technical fellas are the real deal, I admire your work.

I've learned a lot from you guys. You've improved my methods.

But I'm not here just to hustle.

I'm here to punt and carry on like a pork chop when I win.

And so help me god, if Snelling or that Jai dude from the Eagles kick goals tomorrow, I'll celebrate.

In ways I ought not describe on a public forum, among polite society.

This is the life of the degen.

As they say in the classics, there is a house in New Orleans



The only thing a gambler needs is a suitcase, Lord, and a trunk.

(I don't even own a trunk)

 

[dontlimitme]

Welcome to the bigfooty punting board, friend.

Wise fellas like you and Oh Ok, I respect your hustle, you are better footy gambling analysts than me.

But amidst all the statistical models and spreadsheets and what have you, are we not losing something important?

Something abstract. Something intangible.

Something difficult to describe but which so many of us feel, especially when our trains come home.

In my case, I'm still up for the year. Rochelle and a couple others in Rds 1/2 made bank.

Since then I've been slowly but surely losing what I won, in fact I'm down 50% from my 2022 peak.

Yes, I keep spreadsheets, and I'm proud of how closely I watch my punting.

But if I were to take this stuff too seriously, I'd lose 90% of the fun which the punt brings me.

Sure, Snelling will probably give us a potato man performance tomorrow.

I'll have egg on my face for the umpteenth time.

But on those rare occasions when the longshot comes in, it makes all the egg on face worthwhile.

The thrill of seeing some spud kick two by half time, waiting to see if he kicks four to really cash in...

I missed the Ziebell train earlier this year. It is one of my greatest regrets of the past few years.

And I've made a lot of mistakes these past few years. I'm not just talking about gambling, either.

But I know that one day there'll be another Ziebell train.

Or another Collingwood - Richmond draw / unders @ $101.

Or another Dom Sheed 3+ @ 100.

When that next train is at the station, I plan to be there, waiting to buy my tickets.

And when that train comes home, I'll be here on the churf footy punting board, celebrating with my fellow degens.

That's why I punt. For the thrill of it.

Is it throwing money away? Yes, most of the time.

But so long as I start the season with a Gulden or a Rochelle, I'm playing with house money anyhow.

I'm throwing their money back at them, which in some ways is only fair (even though I detest sb).

If dudes like dontlimitme and bloodret ever disappeared from this forum, I'd miss them.

They may not be as technical as proper analysts like yourself and Oh Ok, but they add something special.

Not just to this forum but to the punt.

I'd miss you guys too, don't get me wrong.

You technical fellas are the real deal, I admire your work.

I've learned a lot from you guys. You've improved my methods.

But I'm not here just to hustle.

I'm here to punt and carry on like a pork chop when I win.

And so help me god, if Snelling or that Jai dude from the Eagles kick goals tomorrow, I'll celebrate.

In ways I ought not describe on a public forum, among polite society.

This is the life of the degen.

As they say in the classics, there is a house in New Orleans



The only thing a gambler needs is a suitcase, Lord, and a trunk.

(I don't even own a trunk)

i understand all of this, just think snelling isn't one of those but GL anyway hope he proves me wrong

 

[mouncey2franklin]

i understand all of this, just think snelling isn't one of those but GL anyway hope he proves me wrong

If you said to me at the beginning of the season,

'Who is more likely to kick 5+ this season: Ziebell or Snelling?'

I would have asked, who is Snelling, and does he play AFL?

If you said, 'yeah he will play a few games in the Bomber forwardline'

I would have said

'Snelling'

 

[dontlimitme]

If you said to me at the beginning of the season,

'Who is more likely to kick 5+ this season: Ziebell or Snelling?'

I would have asked, who is Snelling, and does he play AFL?

If you said, 'yeah he will play a few games in the Bomber forwardline'

I would have said

'Snelling'

just hate betting on tiny forwards who can't kick more than 30m on a set shot to kick bags lol

 

[dontlimitme]

really like himmelberg for most disposals in group 2 today, ball should be down in the GWS backline a lot and he takes most of the kick ins. Been racking them up since he's moved back, good price

 

[GROTTO]

rankine goals after siren. destroying any lions -18.5 line and -20.5 line bets. wow

FFS, I cant believe this. I cant, I wont.

 

[HTPunter]

Snelling atg@$2.20 SB
2+@$7.75
3+@$34
4+@$191
5+@$1801

Tbh I don’t even know what this bloke looks like but flicking through the SB app he is big odds and has pretty good heat maps the last 2 weeks. Think he may have been discussed in last weeks thread or the one prior. Worth pocket change stakes for mine at those odds.
Should be a good game tomorrow, Will be great weather in Melbourne.View attachment 1454599View attachment 1454600

I've done this the past 2 weeks and god when you watch him play closely he looks dogshit. Good luck to you though, always hope these trains get up even if I miss them.

 

[GROTTO]

I've done this the past 2 weeks and god when you watch him play closely he looks dogshit. Good luck to you though, always hope these trains get up even if I miss them.

I threw my phone at the TV when he had a shot at goal, didnt even make the distance last week.

Mind you for a while I thought the same about JUH.

 

[HTPunter]

just hate betting on tiny forwards who can't kick more than 30m on a set shot to kick bags lol

Suppose with how easy it is to give 50s away these days, he might have a chance at going to the goalline a couple of times.

 

[HTPunter]

For me today:

Fisher 80-100+ fantasy points (2, 3.10, 5.50)
Carlton 25+, 40+, 60+ (1.63, 2.35, 4.50)

Setterfield fantasy points - not yet listed on PB but keen to look once they're up, likely to take the Hewett role and has been racking up them in VFL in his preferred role.

Merrett 110-130+ fantasy points (1.70, 2.30, 3.50)

Sinclair 110-130+ fantasy points (2.30, 3.50, 6)
Marshall 100-130+ fantasy points (1.75, 2.35, 3.75, 6.50)
Gresham 90-130+ (2.15, 3.50, 6, 12, 21)

 

[tangolikelama]

Got $150 in bonus bets to go full degenerate mode

 

[LSRU]

If you think he can get close to backing up last weeks performance against the defender friendly saints. Barrass disposal odds are massive on pointsbet relative to everywhere else.

 

[bulletride]

Setterfield fantasy points - not yet listed on PB but keen to look once they're up, likely to take the Hewett role and has been racking up them in VFL in his preferred role.

I've been waiting for them to get those markets up too. 40, 35 and 34 in his last 3 VFL games. Ended up just taking him for disposals at B365:

20+ $2.60
25+ $10

 

[tangolikelama]

Crippa AGS
Motlop AGS
Durdin AGS
Fisher AGS
Riccardi AGS
McKay 2+
Tobes 2+
Curnow 3+

@20

 

[tangolikelama]

McCreery AGS
J Daicos AGS
Martin AGS
Jones AGS
Ginnivan 2+
Stringer 2+
Mihochek 3+

@47 LOVE THIS