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AFL 2022 AFL Round 20

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2u - Port Adelaide +5.5 - $1.91 - 365
Absolutely last ditch effort for Port who are out of finals contention with a loss today. Port are ultra hardened at the moment after an extremely tough schedule since the bye coming up against Richmond (MCG), Sydney, Gold Coast, Fremantle, GWS, Melbourne, Geelong. They’ve been very far from embarrassing during this stretch and have had comfortable wins against Sydney and GWS over that patch. Collingwood since the bye have had a much softer run of games facing GWS, Gold Coast, North, Adelaide, Essendon. They’ve won each of those games by the skins of their teeth with an average margin of 6.4 which brings us extremely close to the line for today. It’s all or nothing for Port today and I’m expecting them to leave everything on the table. Collingwood have been flirting with a dropped game in weeks and this stacks up as their trickiest task since the bye.

3.5u - Wines over 28.5 disposals - $1.91 - SB
200th career game in what is an all or nothing game for his side. Hasn’t been up to his Brownlow level of form this season but still has a strike rate of 9/16 on this line. Collingwood are consistently on the receiving end of big numbers from opposition mids and in an all or nothing game for the milestone man I’m expecting a big showing.

2u - De Goey 2+ goals - $2.15 - PointsBet
1u - De Goey 3+ goals - $5 - PointsBet

First game back and Mihocek out of the side. Makes absolute sense for him to be used as a deep forward today. Kicked 4.1 on Brisbane when Mihocek missed in round 5.

2u - Burton over 22.5 disposals - $2 - TopSport
Season numbers aren’t amazing, but with Houston and Bonner out the side he should see a rise in kick ins and usage off of half back.

3u - Hickey 15+ disposals - $1.87 - SB
Some pretty strong numbers making this a must play. 5/6 when rucking solo this year. 15/21 last year when rucking solo.

2.5u - Heeney 15+ disposals & AGS - $1.92 - Ladbrokes
Play as a SGM. Been waiting for the odds to creep back up on this one. Is 12/18 on the season and should be a hotly contested derby. Has hit in his last two against GWS.

0.25u - Heeney Brett Kirk Medal - $13 - Ladbrokes
Has all the makings of a player that can win this medal. Kicks goals and finds the ball. Has had 3+ goals and 20+ disposals in each of his last two against GWS. Similar numbers should see him win the medal today.

2u - Richards under 18.5 disposals - $1.89 - SB
Enjoyed a stretch of 21, 22, 24 over the last few weeks playing without Daniel, however Went under in 9/13 games with Daniel this season.

4u - Cerra over 24.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
1u - Cerra 30+ disposals - $4 - PointsBet/TAB

This season when one of the midfield has missed for Carlton Cerra has taken the opportunity to rack it up. He has collected 30, 32, 32, 26, 27, 27. The last three being in games with Hewett missing as he is this weekend.

4u - Cripps over 27.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
1u - Cripps 35+ disposals - $5.25 - 365

Similar to Cerra, Cripps has also had big games when a Carlton mid has missed this season. In these games he has gone, 30, 35, 32, 35, 35, 34, 22, 34. Games of 35, 35, 34 when Hewett has been out of the side.
 

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Cameron 3,4,5

9,29,114 SB

Darcy Moore 2,3 in case he swings fwd

23,201 365
 
Absolutely ripper of a day in Melbourne today - expect this to go close. Hopefully the umps give Ginni a fair few frees. Expect Howe and Moore to go to Marshall and Dixon - hopefully MG gets a few.

View attachment 1460297
Thats solid as f**K, nice. Maybe query Farrell.
 

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Marshall 4,5 @7, 22 pb

Marshall 1+
Dixon 1+
Georgiades 1+
Powell Pepper 1+
De Goey 1+
Elliott 1+
Johnson 1+
Ginnivan 1+
@6.80
 
Ginnivan
Dixon
Elliot
De goey
Spp
Georgiadis
@5.5

Spp 3 parker 2 omeara 2 @617

Peatling 2 Heeney 2 papley 2 Greene 2 Franklin 2 Hayward 2 Reid 2 @117

Reid 3 Heeney 3 @23

Dixon 3 ginnivan 2 spp 2 Cameron 2
@93 boosted pb

Are you at the game today to give us updates on who's kicking for goal pre-game?
 

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GWS' lineup is confusing. I doubt Pruess is going to solo ruck all day, someone needs to give him a chopout. Only bloke that looks like doing that is Himmelberg. Interesting to see how they lineup
 
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