AFL 2022 AFL Round 8

[Del125763]

Glad I got on Mundy early

Baldwin 5 $2 @ 201
Spends his time forward 50. Hope it’s this week. Would have liked a bigger SB multi trick but this will do.

Have tailed on Baldwin for 4+ and 5+ @ 51 and 201.

Spent last week around 80% in offensive half. He was mostly banked around the forward line. Did kick a goal and against a lesser opponent, should get a few more opportunities. The Dogs played a real slow brand last week , and the Bombers werent allowed to play their end-to-end style of footy. Faster pace game gives Baldwin a chance of getting goals.

 

[jikost]

Clear change of role for Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

28

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

on the weekend with almost all of his disposals in the front half... ended up kicking 2 but could easily have had 3 or 4. They could be phasing him out of the CB rotations in favor of Libba, Macrae, Smith and Bont, because Dunkley only attended 23% against Essendon. Lets see if it continues...

2+ @ $10.5 sb
3+ @ $52.5
4+ @ $251

 

[bato]

Not sure if it’s been posted but Brisbane to score more than 17.5 goals is a big $2 on Lads. I think they’ve priced it wrong.

Eagles conceded 18 or more in their last three. Lions have scored 23 v North, 21 v Suns and 17 v Swans (basically three quarters).

 

[Del125763]

Not sure if it’s been posted but Brisbane to score more than 17.5 goals is a big $2 on Lads. I think they’ve priced it wrong.

Eagles conceded 18 or more in their last three. Lions have scored 23 v North, 21 v Suns and 17 v Swans (basically three quarters).

But a better bet may be , Brisbane to be the Highest scoring team of the round, which is $2.75 at Ladbrokes. Im not usually one to take on short odds in an 18 team comp, but Freo missing their major forwards is listed as 2nd favourite $5.00- which is too short. Sydney at $6 is 3rd favourite.

I reckon a target of around 125 points may be very close to being the top score of the round. Brisbane have probably potential to clear the 150 mark if they really wanted to.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Clear change of role for Josh Dunkley on the weekend with almost all of his disposals in the front half... ended up kicking 2 but could easily have had 3 or 4. They could be phasing him out of the CB rotations in favor of Libba, Macrae, Smith and Bont, because Dunkley only attended 23% against Essendon. Lets see if it continues...

2+ @ $10.5 sb
3+ @ $52.5
4+ @ $251

I like this, tailed.

Also like Boak for goals, $10 / $51 / $476 for 2 / 3 / 4 on sb.

Kicked 2.3 against the Dogs in Rd 23 last year despite playing as a primary mid (attended 78% of CBAs).

It has been five years since he kicked four goals in a losing team against Melbourne.

Don't know if he still has it in him but at those odds, worth a look imo.

Boak 2+ Dunkley 3+ @ $1101 also tempting.

 

[CarterS]

Is -65.5 the biggest line since GWS/GC first seasons? Would have to go close

 

[bato]

But a better bet may be , Brisbane to be the Highest scoring team of the round, which is $2.75 at Ladbrokes. Im not usually one to take on short odds in an 18 team comp, but Freo missing their major forwards is listed as 2nd favourite $5.00- which is too short. Sydney at $6 is 3rd favourite.

I reckon a target of around 125 points may be very close to being the top score of the round. Brisbane have probably potential to clear the 150 mark if they really wanted to.

Where can I find this? Which market?

 

[Crock Hunter]

Nic Martin AGS $2.05 @Bet365
Has scored a goal in 3/6 including a bag of 5 and 2. Kicked a behind in the another goalless game. Loves a goal and the bombers play the hawks who can give up goals (think back to the Saints game). Marvel will make for a slick match up. Even further so - is $1.3/$1.4 at all other books. Great bet

 

[Robo87]

Nic Martin AGS $2.05 @Bet365
Has scored a goal in 3/6 including a bag of 5 and 2. Kicked a behind in the another goalless game. Loves a goal and the bombers play the hawks who can give up goals (think back to the Saints game). Marvel will make for a slick match up. Even further so - is $1.3/$1.4 at all other books. Great bet

Nice find, tailed for 1,2,3 goals @2.05/4.50/17
I also like Dunkley for possible 1,2,3,4 goals.

 

[BloodRet]

Nic Martin AGS $2.05 @Bet365
Has scored a goal in 3/6 including a bag of 5 and 2. Kicked a behind in the another goalless game. Loves a goal and the bombers play the hawks who can give up goals (think back to the Saints game). Marvel will make for a slick match up. Even further so - is $1.3/$1.4 at all other books. Great bet

One touch inside the forward 50 last week.

 

[Crock Hunter]

One touch inside the forward 50 last week.

No stringer this week. At 190cm he is the perfect candidate for spending more time up forward

 

[BloodRet]

No stringer this week. At 190cm he is the perfect candidate for spending more time up forward

Fair call!

 

[Crock Hunter]

Best Bet of the Week imo
Tom Mitchell AGS $3.3 @Bet365
Has scored a goal in 3/7 and a behind or goal in 6/7. Playing a notably different roll at the hawks under Sam Mitchell - they don’t want the 35+ disposal games, they want impact and he clearly can offer it at the scoring end. Similar to Martin - game at marvel should be slick and high scoring. I absolutely love this bet. He is priced with Sicily, Hardwick and Redman who all play in deep defence….. 2+ at $21s a must also

 

[jikost]

Feel like I'm missing out on some easy cash-out $$$... Mitchell hasn't kicked 2 goals in a game in like 4 years, yet his $21s are now $5.5 all of a sudden???

 

[Crock Hunter]

Feel like I'm missing out on some easy cash-out $$$... Mitchell hasn't kicked 2 goals in a game in like 4 years, yet his $21s are now $5.5 all of a sudden???

Definitely an over correction. It all depends on their models. E.g his price for AGS is probably about right but their model as a result winds in everything - regardless of how likely the multiples are.

 

[Crock Hunter]

Jack Mahony

42

Jack Mahony

Age

24

Ht

177cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.4

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

5.8

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

8.4

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

5.8

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.2

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

8.4

3star

K

2.6

1star

HB

5.8

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.0

1star

AGS $2.7 @ Bet365
Pretty simple play this one. He is not a player I love to watch but has a knack of ending up in the right place - even when we lose. Plays forward pocket and has scored a goal in 4/7 and a behind in the other. I’m also a believer that North are gonna be way more competitive than people think so hopefully gets a cheap one over the top.

 

[jikost]

Is -65.5 the biggest line since GWS/GC first seasons? Would have to go close

Essendon had some whopper lines during 2016.

 

[Del125763]

Where can I find this? Which market?

At the Ladbrokes webpage

click on "Australian Rules"--->"AFL Round 8 Specials"-----> Then click on "Markets" (should be a small number 6 next to it)

 

[Atavistic]

No stringer this week. At 190cm he is the perfect candidate for spending more time up forward

Just looked at the stats. Nic has kicked goals in every match that Stringer missed this year (3/3).

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Is -65.5 the biggest line since GWS/GC first seasons? Would have to go close

Biggest in four years by my count, Geelong/GC late in 2018 was in the -75 region. Pretty rare occurrence

 

[The_Steadier]

Is -65.5 the biggest line since GWS/GC first seasons? Would have to go close

In recognition of this momentous occasion, I've decided to have a stab at both of these.

I like the eagles first to score @ 2.72, because even in a lop sided contest- i feel like it's not that far off a coin flip as to who gets on the scoreboard first.

The rest is the lions killing the game early for either the first 2 or 3 quarters, then putting the cue in the rack... allowing the eagles a little bit of respectability for the last 1 or 2 quarters:

 

[Atavistic]

In recognition of this momentous occasion, I've decided to have a stab at both of these.

I like the eagles first to score @ 2.72, because even in a lop sided contest- i feel like it's not that far off a coin flip as to who gets on the scoreboard first.

The rest is the lions killing the game early for either the first 2 or 3 quarters, then putting the cue in the rack... allowing the eagles a little bit of respectability for the last 1 or 2 quarters:

View attachment 1392109View attachment 1392110

West Coast have been giving up in fourth quarters the last few games, letting their opponents score 7 goals each time. But who knows, might be different this time.

 

[GROTTO]

Essendon had some whopper lines during 2016.

GWS in their early years were the record holders many of their lines were in the +60 region.

 

[Del125763]

Cross Sport Multi

PJ Tucker First Basket in the NBA Game 2 playoffs v 76ers
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs Under 150.5 pts

Odds: $30.52

 

[The_Steadier]

West Coast have been giving up in fourth quarters the last few games, letting their opponents score 7 goals each time. But who knows, might be different this time.

Yeah I had a nibble at the reverse too, where the eagles beat the Q1 line but then lose every other quarter line. (I posted that earlier- it's at circa $8 i think)

The odds are set at the game being, from the first second to the last second, a non stop procession of goals for the lions and no resistance.

I reckon it's a decent play that the lions wont bury them all day long- either at the start or end of the game the eagles will go goal for goal (or within 2-3 goals of that) for a quarter or two.

I'll be watching that game with morbid facination.

As will I be with the north freo game- i think that will be closer than the odds suggest (even with nths price continuing to come in).

I like this for instance, basically nth get an ok start- freo hit back in Q2 and hold them at bay in a sortof close one: