AFL 2022 AFL Round 8

[Del125763]

Last years prelim final

Contested Disposals
Port Adelaide 136-166 Bulldogs


In 2021 Net Contested Disposals Rank
Bulldogs +7.7 (4th) v +5.1 Port Adelaide (5th)

In 2022 Net Contested Disposals Rank
Bulldogs +0.1 (11th) v -5.4 Port Adelaide (13th)

Both teams have slid down that rank. The game is too close to call for me.

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet Stat Multiplier spread for Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs (Kicks x Handballs x Goals):

View attachment 1393031

My tips using the $1 stake system and some reasoning behind the bets. The standout bet for me is Ollie Wines to cover his line. His last season scores against this opposition were: 345, 280 and 220. Last week he racked up a score of 182 in a low scoring slog fest. With the rain in Adelaide its thrown me off from a few too many bets on this match. Never been to that ground before and not really sure how good the drainage system over there.

Wines OVER 64 (has form and has a good record against this team. )
Butters OVER 68 (just when tabulating the data tonight, he has relatively even amount of possessions. In 2021-22 , his average kicks was 10.63 and average handball 9.52 per match. 1 goal should be able to cover this very reasonable line. 2 or more would be a bonus)
Farrell OVER 25 (cheap get for a player that has kicked goals in his comeback. )
All other players = NO PLAY (the Western Bulldogs players seemed to have set spreads set about right. I actually think the Power win this game without players not backing up from their last season match in the Finals: Bontempelli, Tim English, Hunter, Easton Wood, Mitch Hannan, JJ, Schache. Those players combined provided 7 goals last year, and it will no doubt be a closer scoreline here)


This match won't be my super focus this weekend.

Decided to add Bailey Smith to my selections on the OVER 88, on the Stat Multiplier. He kicked 4 goals against them last year and kicked a goal last week against Bombers. So he has the form on this ground and coming into this game he has scored a goal in the previous week. He will get chances , its just a matter if he can convert. A goal from him or Wines , can pretty much cover the lines in this game. Had the line been in triple figures I wouldn't have been that tempted. Feel like its a better play that taking him on for anytime goalscorer at $2.40. Bailey Smith averages 14.75 kicks a game and 10.59 handballs in 2021-22 matches.

So the plays for me on the Stat Multiplier for Power v Bulldogs:

Wines OVER 64
Butters OVER 68
Farrell OVER 25
Bailey Smith OVER 88

 

[Del125763]

And also on Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

for 3+ @ 46.25
Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

4+ Goals @ 226 (bet refund if 1 leg fails)

 

[Atavistic]

all 4 will be for the mighty jed anderson

You spelt CCJ wrong.

 

[Selim]

so my bets already did the Buku one but here we go

Georgiades 2,3,4 @2.75, 7.25, 19 (surely is due for a big one has had a shocking season)

Powell Pepper 2,3 @4.40, 15

Scott 2,3 @6.25, 29

Cordy 1,2,3 @2.10, 7

NorthFreo game (ngl i smell an upset here lads freo a bunch of outs plus they had that huge win last week can see north sneaking a W)

Banfield 2,3,4 @7.50, 31, 131

Curtis 2,3,4 @3.10, 8.75, 29

Taylor 1,2,3 @3.05, 16 101 (usually has good games away from melbourne ive noticed kicked 3 against brissy when they got belted )

Switkowski 2,3,4 @2.50, 6.25, 18

 

[Gorgonzola_82]

I fed tonight's odds for disposal lines through the supercomputer and got the following. Get on board. Returning 20%+ per round this year

 

[dontlimitme]

they've been horrific all year but on paper not as bad a team as i thought it'd be for this weeks game

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Liberatore 20+, Liberatore 25+ disposals - $2.15 - Dabble
Have to take it as an SGM to access the price, weird. Libba has seen a rise in midfield minutes over the last three weeks and as a result has gone 25, 33, 24. Is an absolute nut for winning a contested possession and with Port giving up the 4th contested possessions, and conditions looking potentially slippery, this game has all the makings for him. Boosted by the Bont being out.

2u - Butters over 23.5 disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Has had his season impacted a few seperate times by injury/illness but looks as though Port are showing intent in getting him into the midfield as Boak has made a clear move out to aid the development of this bloke. Expect him to be above this number comfortably at seasons end.

2.5u - Simpkin over 26.5 disposals - $1.82 - Ladbrokes
Been waiting to get at Simpkin for a few weeks. Probably the best match up he’s had in a while. Attending a league high CBAs makes this a great pick. Has cleared in 4/7 this year and cleared in 7/11 games after the bye last year. North has copped an absolute beating in the media this week, and as a leader, this is one of the guys that needs to respond.

2u - Fremantle 1-39 - $2.30 - SB
Not a whole lot of positives coming out of North at the moment, losing one of their hardest workers/best forward doesn’t help their case either. They’ve been absolutely demolished in the media this week so will need to rally a bit of a bounce back. I expect Fremantle to have a bit too much, and should be able to hold North back from kicking a score, especially without Larkey. What will make it tough is the numerous changes made by Freo and the potential for a bit of a flat spot after a huge win vs the Cats. Fremantle to get it done but not blow it out.

 

[hewetta]

Serong 30+ $4.25 PB
Picked up 35 against North last season. Slow start to the year but feels like he's just hitting his straps, picked up 30 against Bombers few weeks ago

 

[Profphat]

Who is the key forward for Freo if taberner and lobb is out?

Edit - All good. J Amiss

 

[bato]

Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

29

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

first goal scorer don’t mind if I do.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

Who is the key forward for Freo if taberner and lobb is out?

Treacy and Amiss (on debut) will be the key forwards. Garbage odds for both of them though

 

[Del125763]

Who is the key forward for Freo if taberner and lobb is out?

Treacy

 

[benji21]

Who is the key forward for Freo if taberner and lobb is out?

Treacy/Amiss

 

[Del125763]

Betright Fremantle v North Melbourne Requests. Do any appeal?

 

[Westy Bogan]

Naughton/Marshall 5 goals each @ 519-1

 

[freo_leo29]

Harris Andrews first goal scorer don’t mind if I do.

where did u get this? listed FF for Brissy

 

[dontlimitme]

where did u get this? listed FF for Brissy

he's not going to play FF, the coach already said payne is in for daniher, payne listed in andrews position down back

 

[Del125763]

ill take the

Ziebell , Zurhaar and Paul Curtis to combine for 1+ Goal every Quarter @ 8

North to kick 4+ Goals each half @ $5

 

[freo_leo29]

he's not going to play FF, the coach already said payne is in for daniher, payne listed in andrews position down back

too late I bet on it haha

Tabtouch $10 FGS 41
$10 Last GS 41
$20 AGS 3.25

 

[Atavistic]

where did u get this? listed FF for Brissy

Fk I missed Harris Andrews 200-1 for 3.

 

[dontlimitme]

too late I bet on it haha

Tabtouch $10 FGS 41
$10 Last GS 41
$20 AGS 3.25

**** hope he does, would be wild just randomly throwing andrews up front

good luck!! hope they swing the wild change

 

[freo_leo29]

fu** hope he does, would be wild just randomly throwing andrews up front

good luck!! hope they swing the wild change

Picture it, 140 points up, 5 minutes to go,

Fages "**** it, send Payne back for Harris"

He then slots 3 including the last goal

 

[freo_leo29]

I can't bet there but Payne 2+ @5 and 3+ @19 are great odds for the apparent key forward

bet365

 

[Atavistic]

he's not going to play FF, the coach already said payne is in for daniher, payne listed in andrews position down back

Okay, I'll get on Jack Payne. 100-1 for 4 goals at b365.