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AFL 2022 AFL Round 8

Line Winners?

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .

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BloodRet said:
Franklin 3
Papley 2
McLean 2
Ronke
@18

Hayward 2
Ainsworth 2
@8.5


Papley 4
Rankine 2
McDonald 2
@56

Lynch 4
Mihocek 2
Dusty 2
De goey 2
@30

Lynch 3
De goey 3
Dusty 3
@50

Logan 4, 5 @21, 67
Click to expand...
I notice you've got Rankine for 2 in one of your bets, Ive chucked him in for a couple aswell, Despite knowing he's an under performing piece of shit, I'm just going on the theory he has to do something soon.
 
AFL Round 8 Stat Multiplier spreads for Sydney v Gold Coast Suns:

1651875529078.png

Touk Miller got his largest score last weekend of 630. Suggested plays using the $1 staking system and some reasoning behind each tip:

Parker UNDER 139 (line is about 20 pts too high for me and even a goal could see potential profit. Being labelled in on the half-forward line indicates to me that his career he may play more in the forward line than midfield. Midfield wise now he is probably behind the likes of: Mills, Warner and Gulden)
Florent OVER 29 (good get and on a sunny day in Sydney playing in midfield could easily drift forward and get a goal)
Mills OVER 64 (same line as last week and has been a good result for me last 2 weeks)
Hayward OVER 42 (can see him potentially getting at least 3 goals or or today. He is now Sydneys 3rd most important player in the forward line behind Heeney and Franklin)
Ben Ronke OVER 27 (going to happy write off last week as a bit of a slip against a strong defensive unit. Can cover, and can score at least 2 goals here)
Weller OVER 38 ( has a surprisingly good record at the SCG in terms of goalscoring. 5 goals from 5 games. Love the line and his table average suggests can cover)
Rankine OVER 40 (love him or hate him, he too doesnt mind the SCG . 6 goals from 2 games. I think its the dimensions, some smaller players thrive on the tighter spaces. Again table averages also suggest a play)
Swallow OVER 27 (Above table suggests this may be a tad too low a line to get)
Brandon Ellis OVER 35 (playing in midfield like Swallow and even if he is a 1 in 6 chance to get a goal. Good get for a player with a medium ceiling)
Noah Anderson UNDER 73 (I made a bit of a type on my table last week for him. He doesnt clear above 86 , more than 2 times between the periods of 2021-22. Easy Under here. In fact I think this could be the banker of the week)
 
2021 Rank Net Contested Disposals per Game

Sydney +4.0 (6th) v -9.3 Gold Coast (17th)


2022 Rank Net Contested Disposals Per Game

Sydney +4.0 (7th) v -3.9 Gold Coast (12th)

Thats where the game will be won for me Mills/Warner/Parker v Touk Miller/Rowell/Noah Anderson

Having Rowell has improved Gold Coast rank in that area this season.
 
jikost said:
Ben Long 20+ @ $9 tab - Playing across half-back the last few weeks.... hovering between 15 and 20 disposals since the move.

Sam Berry 20+ @ $9 tab - Last chance Sam. Named on-ball again and Matt Crouch has been omitted so maybe this week will be different.
Click to expand...

Berry is still $5 for 20+ on TAB, which IMO is still overs, currently $2.25 on SB for 20+. Also noticed TAB still have Matt Crouch disposals up, so clearly they're a bit slow atm.
 

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I Copped a bit of a beating last night for the first time in a while.

3u - McCreery (vs Balta) - $2.20 - TopSport
McCreery in the goal match up vs Balta. Basically backing him at $2.20 to kick a goal with Balta basically a lock to play in defence. Would be an extremely unlucky loss if Balta were to kick a goal or two.

3u - De Goey over 22.5 disposals - $1.60 - PointsBet
2u - De Goey 25+ disposals - $2.25 - PointsBet
Got burnt by De Goey due to his illness last week, but still bullish on him averaging above 25 for the season this year. Has attended the most CBAs of any Collingwood player this season. Line was up at 27.5/28.5 last year when he was playing less of a midfield role. Only 3/6 and 2/6 this year, but was 9/9 and 8/9 last year from round 13 onwards once he’d really transitioned into the midfield role.


2.5u - Hogan 2+ goals - $2.02 - TopSport
1u - Hogan 3+ goals - $4.10 - TopSport
0.5u - Hogan 4+ goals - $10 - TopSport
Starts to become big value at this sort of price. Has kicked 2+ in 10/14 games for the Giants and 3+ in 4/14 and 4+ in 2/14. Yet to kick 5+ for them but a small bit of value against his career numbers. Hasn’t played against Geelong since 2018 so surely a bit of fire in his belly there. Was the clear main target last week with a massive 7 marks inside 50.
 
No great thought behind these, Rankine, McCreery and Close owe me though

McCreery2+3+4+@4.10,13,51SB
Castagna3+4+@12,41SB
Rankine3+4+9,31@SB

Multi Combined Games
Rankine2+
CostagnaATG
McCreeryATG
Bolton ATG
GWS W
PerkinsATG
KoschitzkeATG
McGrath 20+
O'Meara20+ @60.75SB

SGM
Greene3+
Hogan2+
Himmelburg 2+
Close2+
Hill ATG. @39.75SB

SGM
Cameron3+
Zorko2+
Ryan2+
McCarthy2+ @23SB

SGM
McKay 3+
Himmelburg 2+
Durdin2+ @19.25SB
 
Last edited:
mac23 said:
Brayshaw/Brodie 60+
$3.20 TAB

3/7 on the year and averaging 55.6 combined. Meek out and the possibility of Mundy moving forward could push their CBA’s even higher. Roos also give up a ton of pill.

Chuck it in the multiplier with Brisbane.
Click to expand...
Hey mate, good bet 💪 what was the theory of Meek being out meaning higher CBAs?
 
2.5u - Bolton 20+ disposals - $1.80 - PointsBet
Bit of a down hill skier, had 19 of his 30 disposals in the second half when the game was iced last week. Had a solid CBA count again last week, and with Prestia, Collier-Dawkins, Ross, Stack, who all featured at centre bounces taking a leave from the side this week to be replaced by guys returning from a break, he should still get a solid time around the ball being one of the match fit/hardened players in the side.

2u - Swallow 20+ disposals - $2.80 - Dabble
1u - Swallow 25+ disposals - $8.50 - Dabble
Burnt by him last week. Was strangely playing defence. Two defenders in for the Suns this week should see him back in the midfield.
 
Ohh Ok said:
I Copped a bit of a beating last night for the first time in a while.

3u - McCreery (vs Balta) - $2.20 - TopSport
McCreery in the goal match up vs Balta. Basically backing him at $2.20 to kick a goal with Balta basically a lock to play in defence. Would be an extremely unlucky loss if Balta were to kick a goal or two.

3u - De Goey over 22.5 disposals - $1.60 - PointsBet
2u - De Goey 25+ disposals - $2.25 - PointsBet
Got burnt by De Goey due to his illness last week, but still bullish on him averaging above 25 for the season this year. Has attended the most CBAs of any Collingwood player this season. Line was up at 27.5/28.5 last year when he was playing less of a midfield role. Only 3/6 and 2/6 this year, but was 9/9 and 8/9 last year from round 13 onwards once he’d really transitioned into the midfield role.


2.5u - Hogan 2+ goals - $2.02 - TopSport
1u - Hogan 3+ goals - $4.10 - TopSport
0.5u - Hogan 4+ goals - $10 - TopSport
Starts to become big value at this sort of price. Has kicked 2+ in 10/14 games for the Giants and 3+ in 4/14 and 4+ in 2/14. Yet to kick 5+ for them but a small bit of value against his career numbers. Hasn’t played against Geelong since 2018 so surely a bit of fire in his belly there. Was the clear main target last week with a massive 7 marks inside 50.
Click to expand...
Hmm that Jesse Hoggan goals , the one for 4+ anyway seems to have been crunched in.
 
Fizza said:
Berry is still $5 for 20+ on TAB, which IMO is still overs, currently $2.25 on SB for 20+. Also noticed TAB still have Matt Crouch disposals up, so clearly they're a bit slow atm.
Click to expand...

TS also still around 5.50 for both and Connor West.
 

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If the reports are true regarding the virus, Essendon will have a makeshift backline tonight. Might be a feast for Kosi who has kicked 7 goals in the last 2 weeks.

4+ @ $ 9.25 sb
5+ @ $ 24

Already taken Callow earlier in the week, but he's still a good price imo given the uncertainty over the Essendon lineup.

2+ @ $5 pb
3+ @ $19
4+ @ $67
5+ @ $191 sb
 
Dont mind the

Kennedy, Darling and Liam Ryan to combine for 3+ Goals each half @ 6.50

and the other one

Callum Ah Chee, Coleman , Tim Kelly, Harris Andrews, Jake Waterman to combine for 1+every Quarter @ 8.00

I actually think if Andrews plays FF as listed on team sheet, Eagles defence may struggle with him height wise. If not, those crumbers of Brisbane will have opportunities, someone like an Ah Chee and Coleman. (any other Brisbane mids)
 
Jaeger O'Meara and Dylan Moore basically swapped positions last week. Moore was everywhere, while 19 of Jaeger's 24 disposals were in the front half where he finished the game with 1.2.

2+ @ $14 pb
3+ @ $67
 

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jikost said:
If the reports are true regarding the virus, Essendon will have a makeshift backline tonight. Might be a feast for Kosi who has kicked 7 goals in the last 2 weeks.

4+ @ $ 9.25 sb
5+ @ $ 24

Already taken Callow earlier in the week, but he's still a good price imo given the uncertainty over the Essendon lineup.

2+ @ $5 pb
3+ @ $19
4+ @ $67
5+ @ $191 sb
Click to expand...

Posted about Kosi early in the week but tailed Callow too. If the rumours are true Ridley, Kelly and Redman are 3 of the outs so it could be a real makeshift backline. Also on Wingard in his 200th

3+ @ $4.70 SB
4+ @ $13 TAB
5+ @ $41 TAB
 
1.5u - Lyons AGS - $2.44 - TopSport
Probably one of the best value for goal scorers in the Lions side. 4/7 in 2022. Strong overhead mark. Potential for a bit of a rest up forward today if they get out to a big lead. Good chance for a few of the younger players to get extended minutes in midfield.


5u - Hawthorn SU, Hawthorn -6.5 - $1.94 - Dabble
As a SGM. News of lots of Essendon players out and top up players potentially required. Should be able to middle out if required.
 
Charlie Cameron 5+ @ $7.25 on SB. Best I could find out of SB, PB, TAB and Neds. Reckon he'll feast tonight, it's the kinda game where he would pop up with a few and plenty of chances to feed off Andrews hopefully.
 
jikost said:
Jaeger O'Meara and Dylan Moore basically swapped positions last week. Moore was everywhere, while 19 of Jaeger's 24 disposals were in the front half where he finished the game with 1.2.

2+ @ $14 pb
3+ @ $67
Click to expand...
Yep also noticed this. I'm taking a chance on Omera too. And if essendon has outs it could turn into a children's birthday party- where everyone gets a prize (aka goal).
1.5u AGS @2.75 pb
1u 2g+ @14 pb
0.5u 3g+ @67 on
 

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