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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 12

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Bet365 odds are starting to get shit is what I’ll say it’s the time of year I’m noticing PointsBet and TopSport are looking the best
 
Warming up with the backs
Sad Season 4 GIF by The Simpsons
 

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Bruhn 6+ tackles @ $3 tab - Cleared 3 of the last 4 weeks.
Thanks. Got a piece of this.

I also had 8+ ($9) in betting slip but chickened out at the last moment.

Edit: now on 12 tackles. 10+ was paying $26....
 
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Keays and Bruhn saving a pretty average round.

Callan Ward high CB count last week with Josh Kelly out injured. Only had the 3 tackles, but wouldn't surprise if he lands in the 4-8 range.

4+ @ $3.25 tab
6+ @ $13
8+ @ $51
 
Jack Lukosius 5+ paying $29 on SB.

Not bad for a bloke that has kicked 5 twice this year, including last week at the same venue...

I think he was paying something like $67 last week o_O

Sorry, I have to...

200w.gif

I thought I'd put more on this, damn. Hope someone out there really cleaned up.
 

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Working out where Himmelberg plays.

I don’t think he plays forward despite being named there. I’d stay away from goals based on the following:

Last time he was in the side his heat map looked like this

IMG_5090.png IMG_5089.png

And with Riccardi, Hogan and Cadman in up forward, their defenders are just Buckley and Keeffe (no Haynes, Taylor).

Richmond only have Ryan and Riewoldt as talls but can see Pickett being needed to be manned up on by a taller player if he plays as a leading forward.

Might also affect Whitfield and Ash disposals if Himmelberg gets his share.

Just some things to watch out for I think.

20 disposals $1.78 SB
25 disposals $3.45 SB
30 disposals $10 TAB
Playing a little bit on 35 ($41) too

6 marks $2.20
8 marks $5
10 marks $14 - did this 4 times last year once he went down back so probably in 14-15 games

Also playing Lachie Ash as a back-up 25 dis $1.95 and 30 $4

As a partner to Whitfield, if Himmelberg doesn’t get the rest of the exit ball it’ll be Ash. Whitfield not much value so get on Ash. One of he or Himmelberg will hopefully be a gull down back
 
tarryn thomas 4.33 for 20+ at 365

any north fans know where he'll be playing
 

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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 12

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