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AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 4

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PAPLEY-Tom_L.png
 
Watched an interview with Paps this week, said his mum is from Adelaide and he'll have some family there, and his little cousins who are footy mad. Kicked 6 in a half in gather round last year, now up against this rabble.

6.25, 16, 41 for 4-6 on topsport for the smear
 
Robbie Fox over 14 on the pb stat multiplier feels very cheap. Had 16 disposals and kicked a goal last week.
 

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Who kicks the goals, though? McGovern and Barrass are decent defenders.
Dixon, Bontempelli and Cadman so far have been the highest scorer against them with 3 goals. It seems like they are determined no one gets a bag despite the 2000 entries. More so it has been a spread which is why I've gone with the 5 Sydney players kicking 2+. Similar to the Brisbane game today. All the Brisbane legs got up if my potential $3900. The Roos legs didn't.


Only so much you can do as a defender when there’s 2000 entries
This is true but on the data so far thisbyear no one has score more the 3 on them and it's been spread around with lots if 2+.

This is no doubt a terrible idea but Sydney goalkicker odds are putrid all round so I'm going to have a stab at a couple of WC players purely at odds. Hopefully Rampe out disrupts the Swans defence at least somewhat.

Loch Rawlinson, small forward on debut replacing Brockman. Probably a sub risk but kicked 3.0 in his first game in the WAFL last week.
AGS $2.40 Dabble
2+ $10 Dabble
3+ $41 PB

Jack Williams also seems way over the odds for a key forward, even if it is for West Coast. Has now kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games at AFL level.
AGS $2.65
2+ $15
3+ $91
All B365
A member on the WCE forum said he heard Simmo say on 6pr (radio station) Rawlinson will be the sub. Some argued that its a bit harsh making a debutant be the sub. Time will tell if he is.
 
No reason why Isaac Heeney and Grundy cant go coo-coo tomorrow against the Eagles on AFL Fantasy. I have both in my team .

Grundy is being talked about as a potential VC-C loophole this week in Fantasy circles.

1 unit
Isaac Heeney & Brodie Grundy To Combine for 225+ Fantasy @ $3.30

0.375 units
Isaac Heeney & Brodie Grundy To Combine for 250+ Fantasy @ $9.00
 
No reason why Isaac Heeney and Grundy cant go coo-coo tomorrow against the Eagles on AFL Fantasy. I have both in my team .

Grundy is being talked about as a potential VC-C loophole this week in Fantasy circles.

1 unit
Isaac Heeney & Brodie Grundy To Combine for 225+ Fantasy @ $3.30

0.375 units
Isaac Heeney & Brodie Grundy To Combine for 250+ Fantasy @ $9.00
Tailed the first 1.
 
Giving Fantasia one more go, he’s an Adelaide boy and will have plenty of family at the ground.

1.5u - Fantasia 2+ @ $5.50 (B365)
0.5u - Fantasia 3+ @ $21 (B365)
0.1u - Fantasia 4+ @ $41 (SB)

Can get $90 for 4 at B365 but they would only let me in for $1 so didn’t bother. Would have gone 0.5u for 3+ but they only let me on for 0.25u.

Edit: Added another 0.5u to 2+ & 0.25u to 3+
 
Last edited:

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2 more Fantasy Multis

all lines cleared for this leg against Eagles last year
Chad Warner Over 99.5 Fantasy
Justin McInerney Over 75.5 Fantasy
Papley 90+ Fantasy
Gulden Over 108.5 Fantasy

0.50 unit
Odds: 17.20 PointsBet



And 1 unit
Grundy 110+ Fantasy
Chad Warner 110+ Fantasy
Odds: $10.23 PointsBet Boosted
 
Sydney Multi Goals OVER 76 $2 stake

Trying this again assuming Sydney go crazy if they can kick 10 goals in each half this would be great

Papley 4-6
 
Jack Williams also seems way over the odds for a key forward, even if it is for West Coast. Has now kicked a goal in 4 of his last 5 games at AFL level.
AGS $2.65
2+ $15
3+ $91
All B365

Tailed, wild odds for someone who’s effectively replacing Oscar Allen in the side. Kicked the first goal of the game v Bulldogs last week.
 
Nick Blakey has been floating down forward last couple of weeks, for 1.0 and 1.1.
I found him for AGS $3.90 on one, worth a go against a wafl side.
$23 for 2 on b365
 

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Took Williams at SB 2-3. Nowhere near as good odds as 365.
Also gone
Williams AGS
Paps 4+
Gulden 25+
@ $10.50 SB, bet return.
Also gone Rawlinson 2-4
$4.5, $15, $71 SB, it's a loch 😅
 
Jamie cripps.
For a bloke who had 6 scoring shots last week (albeit 1.5) I'll take a shot at these odds.
2+ $3.70
3+ $11
4+$45

B365
 
Simmo said he'll prob play hbf

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

I ought to start a spreadsheet to keep track of what coaches say about player positions and whether or not they can be trusted.

If Reid plays forward this week and I miss out on $67 odds for 3+ because Simmo was telling fibs, I'll lose my shit.
 
Wow the odds for Sydney goalkickers are not much chop.

You can multi their top five prospects four 4+ each and it only pays 300-1.

When was the last time an AFL team even had four players kick 4 each, let alone five of them?

Even when Sydney kicked 31 goals against this mob last year, there were only three 4+ goalkickers.

Heeney 5

Amartey, McDonald 4

Gulden, McInerney, McLean 3

If you go 3+ for Sydney's top six prospects they'll give you 850-1

For all six to go 2+ it is a measly 23-1.
 

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AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 4

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