AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 6

[balmainforever]

 

[jikost]

Ben Long did kick 5 in the VFL so he could replace Rosas as he did against the Dogs but he's a ******* potato.

Oh man, I don't even want to know how much money I lost betting on Ben Long to kick 2+ every week back in 2021/22 when he was playing forward for St Kilda. In 34 games across those 2 seasons he did it once lol.

 

[bulletride]

Oh man, I don't even want to know how much money I lost betting on Ben Long to kick 2+ every week back in 2021/22 when he was playing forward for St Kilda. In 34 games across those 2 seasons he did it once lol.

Jesus don't remind me, those were rough times. The one time he did it was after starting as the sub too.

 

[Play On Advantage]

Going Friday night so want to find a train to suit. Crows looking improved now with faster ball movement and a more attacking mindset the last 5 quarters of footy and probably need to continue that trend to keep positive sentiment growing. Looking at where the bombers are conceding goals and shots looks to be a pattern of small/medium types.

R1 - Moore 3, Ginnivan 2, Watson 0.3, Bruest 0.2
R2 - Papley 4.1, Hayward 3.1, Warner 2.1, Gulden 2
R3 - Higgins 3.1
R4 - Rozee 3.2, DBJ 3, Rioli 3
R5 - West 2.1

My play will be the most goal hungry player on the field, desperate for the spotlight in the best way possible, Josh Rachele. The last two weeks he's been hitting more dangerous spots and building form while not being his clinical self so far this year. With Rankine shifting to the midfield more that should result in more chances for him.

3+ $3.80
4+ $9
5+ $21
6+ $71

All SB (will wait for PB to come back up before placing them)

The other play, Brayden Cook had a couple chances against Melbourne late he could/should have converted but rushed himself. One goal last week and another decent game should see him feel less rushed when presented with an opportunity.

1 $2.20
2+ $7.75
3+ $34

All SB (will wait for PB to come back up before placing them)

At the other end of the ground, the Crows are conceding goals to exactly who you would expect on each team, usually the most goals to the 3 short favourites on the opposition. No real surprises so not much meat on the Essendon bones from first look. Maybe Gresham for 3-5 given he performed really well at AO in Gather Round with limited opportunities.

 

[freo_leo29]

They didn't accept my swallow 3+ bet before pb went down as it errored out multiple times

Now his odds have been slashed when it's brought back up


Annoying af and no bonus bet this time

 

[Play On Advantage]

Swallow kicked 3 in just over a quarter coming on as the sub to play forward replacing Rosas. With Rosas out this week he could be a chance to get a full game in the role. Obviously a chance he starts sub again which will void the bet so seems pretty low risk. Ben Long did kick 5 in the VFL so he could replace Rosas as he did against the Dogs but he's a ******* potato.

AGS $2.50
2+ $12
3+ $51
PB

Tailed this at PB

2+ $11
3+ $46

 

[bulletride]

Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

22

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

train with Darcy set to return. Should finally get that much talked about forward role this week and it's against the Eagles. Better odds were available on TAB but got smashed as soon as I hit them, still decent enough on PB with the SGM trick:

3+ $7.33
4+ $22.37
5+ $71.22

 

[Play On Advantage]

Going Friday night so want to find a train to suit. Crows looking improved now with faster ball movement and a more attacking mindset the last 5 quarters of footy and probably need to continue that trend to keep positive sentiment growing. Looking at where the bombers are conceding goals and shots looks to be a pattern of small/medium types.

R1 - Moore 3, Ginnivan 2, Watson 0.3, Bruest 0.2
R2 - Papley 4.1, Hayward 3.1, Warner 2.1, Gulden 2
R3 - Higgins 3.1
R4 - Rozee 3.2, DBJ 3, Rioli 3
R5 - West 2.1

My play will be the most goal hungry player on the field, desperate for the spotlight in the best way possible, Josh Rachele. The last two weeks he's been hitting more dangerous spots and building form while not being his clinical self so far this year. With Rankine shifting to the midfield more that should result in more chances for him.

3+ $3.80
4+ $9
5+ $21
6+ $71

All SB (will wait for PB to come back up before placing them)

The other play, Brayden Cook had a couple chances against Melbourne late he could/should have converted but rushed himself. One goal last week and another decent game should see him feel less rushed when presented with an opportunity.

1 $2.20
2+ $7.75
3+ $34

All SB (will wait for PB to come back up before placing them)

At the other end of the ground, the Crows are conceding goals to exactly who you would expect on each team, usually the most goals to the 3 short favourites on the opposition. No real surprises so not much meat on the Essendon bones from first look. Maybe Gresham for 3-5 given he performed really well at AO in Gather Round with limited opportunities.

Pointbet back up

Rachele

2u 3+ $3.80 SB
1u 4+ $9 SB
.5u 5+ $29 PB
.5u 6+ $90 SB boosted

Cook

1.5u 1+ $2.25 PB
.5u 2+ $9.50 PB
.25u 3+ $41 PB

 

[BloodRet]

Keayes 3-5 @6, 17, 51 dabble

 

[gillon]

Membrey 2-5 TS

2.36, 5.30, 16, 48

 

[Atavistic]

Membrey 2-5 TS

2.36, 5.30, 16, 48

Caminiti is probably worth a look too.

 

[Johanpetro]

I’ll take PB odds on Dangerfield. Think he might spend a little more time up forward back from injury

2 goals $12.40 (tricked and boosted)
3 goals $51

 

[fpm84]

With Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

now ruled out and Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

29

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

suspended (subject to appeal), I’m on Ah Chee 2+ at $21 (B365). Expect this will come in quite a bit if Cameron’s appeal fails.

 

[NYRB]

SPP 2
Langford 2
Daniels 2
Bailey 2
Papley 2
@37.25

Not sure how it works but Zac Bailey has been ruled out , according to someone on Whirlpool Forum:

https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/34k6jqw2?p=270

Do the bets void in that case? Not sure what happens if you have combinations eg 3 to get up , 4 to get up etc.

 

[BloodRet]

Not sure how it works but Zac Bailey has been ruled out , according to someone on Whirlpool Forum:

https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/34k6jqw2?p=270

Do the bets void in that case? Not sure what happens if you have combinations eg 3 to get up , 4 to get up etc.

Will just be Bailey voided in that case

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

When do the TAB tackles and marks odds come out?

 

[bulletride]

When do the TAB tackles and marks odds come out?

Day of each game

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Oh man, I don't even want to know how much money I lost betting on Ben Long to kick 2+ every week back in 2021/22 when he was playing forward for St Kilda. In 34 games across those 2 seasons he did it once lol.

He must have done good failing though as Gold Coast signed him on a 4 year contract

 

[freo_leo29]

He must have done good failing though as Gold Coast signed him on a 4 year contract

That was *en wild, no idea wtf gc list manager saw

You guys overpaid for him too

Just a strange recruitment all round

 

[GROTTO]

CC FREE TO PLAY THIS WEEKEND.

 

[dontlimitme]

With Zac Bailey now ruled out and Charlie Cameron suspended (subject to appeal), I’m on Ah Chee 2+ at $21 (B365). Expect this will come in quite a bit if Cameron’s appeal fails.

tailed the chee chee train

 

[burge13]

That was *en wild, no idea wtf gc list manager saw

You guys overpaid for him too

Just a strange recruitment all round

The same guy gave Atkins a 5 year deal too. Madness

 

[bulletride]

Pre-empting the Lions side here while the odds are juicy but taking Zorko 1/2 $3.50/$21 on PB. Reading their board most seem to expect McKenna to come straight back into the side with Zorko replacing Bailey's role M/F. Bet is probably dead if McKenna isn't picked but also won't get these odds so taking a chance.

 

[dontlimitme]

my swallow cash outs at PB for 3+ are 5x and 3x for 2+ lmao

 

[toenail11]

Tailing swallow still @7.50, 34 for 2 and 3 on sb

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Pre-empting the Lions side here while the odds are juicy but taking Zorko 1/2 $3.50/$21 on PB. Reading their board most seem to expect McKenna to come straight back into the side with Zorko replacing Bailey's role M/F. Bet is probably dead if McKenna isn't picked but also won't get these odds so taking a chance.

The $3.50 for AGS seems decent given that he has scored in 3/5 matches this season.