AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 9

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Absolute s**t bet but something to keep me interested.
Grundy AGS $5.50 points bet
Sean darcy out so it might make it interesting. Usually gets a couple disposals in the forward 50, hoping for a free kick.
Also $19 for 2 on b365
 

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.5u Banfield 2+ 4.25 PB

AGS SGM Multi
Banfield
Walters
Sharp
Brayshaw
McLean
Heeney
Rowbottom
Adams
.1u 750 boosted SB

Freo v Syd - Either Team Under 24
Geelong 1-39
Hawks v Saints Either Team Under 24
GWS -8.5
Tigers v Bulldogs Either Team Under 24
Brisbane +6.5

44.64 $10 freebet SB
 
I'm going to bet on Ben Long 2-4 (4.80/15/71, SB)





Don't laugh at me when it goes **** up.

Usually I would jump at the opportunity to laugh at anyone betting on Long but the local boys usually do well in the Darwin games in front of their families. Lloyd Johnston is another Darwin boy who has been used as a small forward the past couple of weeks in the VFL for returns of 2.1 and 2.1. Similar odds to Long on SB so taking some combos of the two:

Both AGS $3
Long 2, Johnston 1 $8.20
Johnston 2, Long 1 $8
Both 2 $23
 
Free hits aka the sure the things

2 Henry/Hawkins/cameron
1 Rioli/georgiades
@6.25

^ if Hawkins doesn’t deliver it’s my own fault for giving fatty one more chance. port should get pumped though

2 amiss/Hayward
1 paps/Frederick
@7.50

Like this one. Worried about a drop off from Hayward but has been in form
 

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Butters 25+
Wines, Houston, Holmes, Stewart 20+
JHF 15+
Cats 1-39
Under 187.5
$7.50 SB

Serong, Brayshaw 25+
Heeney, Gulden, Clark, Young, Warner 20+
Over 22.5 Goals
Under 184.5
$7 SB
 
Geelong to win the Fantasy Battle as a team over Power.

I heard a weird stat this season that no Geelong player has got over 30+ Disposals this season.

Think the game follows a similar pattern to the 2022 version when they played at Kardinia Park. Geelong won the Fantasy team count that night 1565 v 1537 as a team. Port Adelaide look a bit top-heavy in talls in the forward line and I can see Geelong players getting cheap Fantasy points. Think without Rozee, a chance finally a Geelong player cracks the 30+ Disposal tonight.


0.5u
Miers 80+ AFL Fantasy Points
Stewart 90+ AFL Fantasy Points
Duncan 80+ AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $4.75

Horne-Francis scored 100 or so last year and I dont mind him clearing his line tonight.

0.5u
Miers Over 88.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Stewart Over 93.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Horne-Francis Over 80.5 AFL Fantasy Points
Odds: $7.18 (Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)

Saw the lines for the other Power players: Wines, Drew, Houston, Bergman and I couldnt back the over on their lines without any confidence.
 
Cats
Port +48.5
U178.5

Heeney, Gulden, Young 20+
Ryan 15+
Swans +20.5
U173.5

Newcombe, Steele 20+
Bonner, Nash 15+
Hawks +38.5
U183.5

Merrett, Martin 25+
Parish, Kelly 20+
GWS +26.5

Treloar 25+
Bont, Short 20+
Rioli, Vlastuin 15+
Tigs +55.5
U191.5

Sheezel, Flanders 25+
LDU 20+
Suns -8.5
U198.5

Pies lead 3QT & FT
Naicos 25+
Pendles 20+
Jaicos 15+
U193.5

Laird, Soligo, Clug, Dunk 20+
Berry, Wilmot 15+
U196.5

All $2.50 SB SGM’s for each game
Hit 4/8 to be profitable…
Or all 8 at odds of $1525 to be rich…
 
Bergman O75.5 $1.87 PB

Gone over 4/4, lowest of 79, averaging 89 in that time.

Geelong concede easy ball to opposition. Wings spread against them, as evidenced by Langdon, Windsor & Acres all going 90+ against them in past 2 weeks. We took 129 marks against them and our wings were more half back flankers that game, it’s just not the Cats game to try stop every little kick.

Add in Bergmans intercept game and that he’s a quality wing in his own right who gets tackles too, I think this line is low. Lads have it at 80.5 which is right
 
I heard a weird stat this season that no Geelong player has got over 30+ Disposals this season.

That stat was ruined last week when Holmes had 31…. And we lost.

In other words, we can only win when nobody has 30+.
 

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