AFL 2024 - AFL ROUND 9

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Sam Walsh To Get 90+ Fantasy
Clayton Oliver To Get 90+ Fantasy
Blake Acres To Get 90+ Fantasy
Max Gawn To Get 90+ Fantasy
George Hewett To Get 80+ Fantasy
Steven May To Get 80+ Fantasy
Ed Langdon To Get 70+ Fantasy
Jake Lever To Get 70+ Fantasy
Melbourne 1-39
Under 182.5 Alternate Totals
Bayley Fritsch To Kick 2+ Goals
Harry McKay To Kick 2+ Goals

$264.17 PB
 
Sam Walsh To Get 90+ Fantasy
Clayton Oliver To Get 90+ Fantasy
Blake Acres To Get 90+ Fantasy
Max Gawn To Get 90+ Fantasy
George Hewett To Get 80+ Fantasy
Steven May To Get 80+ Fantasy
Ed Langdon To Get 70+ Fantasy
Jake Lever To Get 70+ Fantasy
Melbourne 1-39
Under 182.5 Alternate Totals
Bayley Fritsch To Kick 2+ Goals
Harry McKay To Kick 2+ Goals

$264.17 PB
Very good except George Hewett.
 
I know Melbourne's defense can be stingy but I still like Curnow/McKay 5+ @ $1.85 tab - They've cleared this 7 times this year from 8 matches (McKay 0.2 against Freo) and they basically kick it to these two every time they go inside 50.

Also Curnow/McKay/De Koning 1+ goals every quarter @ $2.3 sb - This has cleared 6 times this year from 8 matches.
 
Oliver O94.5 fantasy $1.89 Ladbrokes

Hammer spot. He had 31 disposals for 106 last week, goes over v Blues, match ups are good, can’t see any reason this isn’t a hammer spot - probably last time we get under 100 for Piggy
 
Oliver O94.5 fantasy $1.89 Ladbrokes

Hammer spot. He had 31 disposals for 106 last week, goes over v Blues, match ups are good, can’t see any reason this isn’t a hammer spot - probably last time we get under 100 for Piggy

Went over last time but also went under this line in the 5 matches before that
 
Kozi
JVR
Martin
Owies
1u @ $5.87 (PB boosted)

JVR
Fritsch
Owies
Curnow
1u @ $2.89 (PB)

1u - Langdon AGS @ $3.50 (PB)
 
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Assumed it was going to be dry tonight, but there does appear to be some rain heading south that might hit around game time. Packaging up some Viney/Cripps/Walsh tackle multi's in case.

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Just about to sit down in the lab right now give me 40 minutes

congrats on the lukoscious odds king could be a big weekend for you

Dune Wow GIF
 
Went over last time but also went under this line in the 5 matches before that

Clearly hampered though, whereas last week he covered ground and collected the ball like normal Oliver. He clearly hasn’t been right (fitness + broken hand), the surgery in bye would have helped a heap once he got the hand use back and it showed.

For context prior to his lean spell this year with his broken hand, he was 52 out of 63 on this line since COVID affected games.

They’ve made the line with a lot on influence on 2024 performance, half of which he had a broken hand for.

He might not get it of course, and perhaps his mental state is affecting his performance too, but I don’t think there’s a evidence-based argument that he was a different looking player last week compared to the first 6 weeks.
 
Key position players have tended to fare not so well in AFL Fantasy scoring between these two sides. Had a look at some numbers pre-game from previous encounters from my table.

Im also leaning towards the Under on Gawn 110.5 AFL Fantasy Points but was expecting the line set by PointsBet to be a couple higher.

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10 of the bottom 11 players not surprisingly are defenders or forwards. (from the small sample of 2 to 5 games)

0.5u
I like Under 84.5 AFL Fantasy Points on Harry McKay and Under 83.5 pts Fantasy Points on Steven May at $3.35 a multi.

.25u
Under 84.5 AFL Fantasy Harry McKay, Under 83.5 AFL Fantasy Steven May, Under 84.5 T De Koning. Odds of $6.12 ( Bet Refund if 1 leg fails)

Newman to take on the Adam Saad role and sense Carlton doesn't look to play with speed coming out of defence.

Think tonight is a high scoring mids game and the general trends from past games tend to back that up. Petracca has tended to underachieve against the Blues.

Ill go as my bet refund:
1u
Oliver 90+ AFL Fantasy, Newman 80+ AFL Fantasy, Acres 70+ AFL Fantasy
Odds: $2.44 ( Bet refund if 1 leg fails at Ladbrokes)

.125u
Oliver 110+ AFL Fantasy, Newman 100+ AFL Fantasy, Acres 90+ AFL Fantasy
Odds: $16.28


0.1875u
Walsh 110+ AFL Fantasy Points, Oliver 110+ AFL Fantasy Points @ 8.48
 

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