Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[katmanblue]

We are in our window with at max 3-4 years left of good footy from a range of our older players. Trading into next years draft is lunacy.

What about trading for someone like Bailey Smith?

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[katmanblue]

Yep, you nailed it. I have zero doubt that our 1st round pick will be on the table at the end of the year, unless the Campos completely fall off the cliff...which is extremely unlikely. You'd imagine that a fair bit will depend upon their performance in the last half of the season, and especially during the carnival.

Either way, we could sell the farm to move up a few spots, but if another club still makes a bid before our 1st rounder, we either miss out on a high draft pick or one of the twins - so it becomes an awful trade.

For mine, I could see us trying to trade in a player like Konstanty or Stone with our 1st on the table, and some spare change coming back for points. Either that or trading down for points and a future 2nd.

Can't we ask them to play like shit for the rest of the year?

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[katmanblue]

I think what’s getting lost in the discussion is, we don’t need to trade up to pick 5 or so, we just need to trade up to get ahead of a bid, at the moment Lucas is rated 16-20 or so.

Even if we win the GF, that’s only trading up a few spots.

Only if the available players are worth it. Otherwise it might be better to trade out to next year.

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[BlueJet]

Well said, ferrisb.
I question trading up as it's burning significant resources on a less-than-certain outcome.
To each their own but I also see one certain way of having a limited window of contention and that's focusing solely on the here and now.
Easier said than done but clubs have proven that if you stockpile assets, nail your picks, and churn your list you can continue to be in the mix come finals times.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Not really. Say for example we trade Pick 15 for Pick 25, Pick 40 and an F2. Overs but realistic given what's clubs pay to trade into the 1st round.

Add that the our existing 2nd rounder (say pick 33) and we'd have enough points to cover both campo bids, plus probably still get another pick in the 2nd round somewhere.

Then next year we have our 1st and two 2nds to either trade or go hard at the draft.

Now lets compare that to trading forward. Probably have to trade 15 and F1 to get up to pick 10. Might get an F3 or something back if we are lucky.

Then we need to manufacture a way to turn pick 33 into both Campos. Would probably have to wipe ourselves out of the next 2 drafts to do so.

So we get the pick 10, both Campos and that'll pretty much be it for the next 2 years. No trade currency either.

It's similar to what the Dogs did last year but they didn't finish well so were able to push up high to get Sanders. I doubt we can. We'll be throwing all our chips on the table to get a pick in the range we took O.Hollands.

I reckon the former approach is much more balanced and likely to lead to sustainable success.

Unless an absolute gun happens to slip in the draft.

As others have said, the Campo twins simply won't cost that much in draft capital so we absolutely wouldn't be 'wiped out' from the next 2 drafts. They aren't top 10 prospects, Ben is a mid-late first round chance and Lucas could be anywhere from 30-60 if he continues his inconsistent form.

There is also the fact that last years draft was absolutely elite for top end talent but fell away sharply and was a very shallow draft. This year doesn't project at all similar with a much smaller gap between the top 10 prospects and the top 30 prospects. Sanders vs Charlie Edwards for example was enormous, hence the steep cost of trading up in last years draft. This year would cost far less to trade up, obviously it will still cost a fair bit, but nowhere near what it cost last year.

My preferred option is still to trade out of the draft for mature age quantities given we are right in the mix for winning a flag in the next few years and 1-2 more quality acquisitions could be the difference between prelim final exits and winning 1-2 flags.

As long as they are in the right age bracket and we aren't paying overs.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I think what’s getting lost in the discussion is, we don’t need to trade up to pick 5 or so, we just need to trade up to get ahead of a bid, at the moment Lucas is rated 16-20 or so.

Even if we win the GF, that’s only trading up a few spots.

There will be ways to do it I just think it’ll be expensive.
We could even try and trade our first for a future first and a third rounder then trade our future first and our second rounder for Brisbane’s first rounder. They get some points and transfer their first rounder to next year and we would then get ahead of a bid and keep a future first. It would require some work to get the points to match bids but should be manageable.
Problem is every club would be trying to get involved and best offer wins which always seems to be at a big price for sides moving up in the current draft

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Cal Twomey on Gettable says he's expecting changes to the bidding system and DVI this year as part of the AFL review.......ouch

Complete amateur competition


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[teagueyubeauty]

I see three facts around all this 'trading picks around Campo bids'.

1) You overpay to move up the order (conversely, you get 'paid' overs to slide)
2) You overpay to bring forward picks (teams value current year picks well above next year's)
3) Bids may come after our first. We may not know for sure until the night

So, what should we do about that?

1) Moving up ahead of bids will be costly. Instead of overpaying to move from 15 to 10. I'd rather someone overpay us to move from 25 to 15.

2) If we're worried about our first getting eaten up, a team will very likely overpay us with 2025 picks to get their hands on a 2024 1st. Teams that are desperate for a rebuild, grabbing a slider or need a 1st for a trade could very easily pay us a 2025 1st AND 2nd for our 2024 first. And that 2025 1st alone could very easily be better than our 2024 1st.

3) Imagine paying overs to move up ahead of bids and then no-one bids on the Campos until after where our 1st pick would have been. What a waste. I mean sure, an early pick (5-10) is really nice, but will cost us a fortune. Why do costly deals when we don't need to? You can trade picks after a bid comes in. So why jump the gun? Can very easily sit back and wait to see IF we need to trade picks.

TL;DR - If we are confident a Campo bid will come before our pick, we should trade down or out to next year, not trade up. If we are not sure, we should simply wait til draft night, with some contingencies in place.

You get into bed with a club like the GC did last year with Brisbane and do the trading on the night.

There was plenty of spooning and reciprocal back tickling going on last draft between those two clubs


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[Kreuuuzeurns]

When assessing where do people have Ben and Lucas?

I’ve gone 16 and 26 which I think is generous.

That’s 1326 points after discount, it’s not much

Based on the current ladder (pick 14 etc) we have 1922 draft points assuming 5 list spots open at the draft. This is before FA/PP, and before bids on Ashcroft, Lombard and Welsh which push us down the order and therefore leaves us with less points. I'm guessing anywhere from 150-250 points less. If we finish top 4 which I think we will that's less again.

The Adelaide trade mentioned above cost them roughly 600 points to move from 11 to 8. It cost Essendon roughly 600 points to move from 11 to 10 to grab Caddy. 1922 less 500-700.

Moving up the order is going to be very costly and would leave us very tight. It won't be impossible and it wouldn't effect us landing the Campos but it will more than likely compromise our 2025 hand either by trading out a future pick or going into a small deficit (preferable imo). Or we lose a required player.

The player who we move up for would want to be very worth it. If we pull the trigger on draft night this will invite earlier bids as clubs will know we have our hands tied. Just like we did with Freo and Henry.

1322 points doesn't sound like a lot but when you lay it out we are going to cut it closer than you think. And who knows how it'll look if the boys continue their form into the champs and have a good combine.

 

[Aphrodite]

https://archive.md/3R7CS

**** off Laura!

AFL head of football Laura Kane told this masthead recently the league had not ruled out making changes this year as part of the competitive balance review, which would see clubs pay a fairer price for players.
One proposal would see clubs forced to retain their first-round picks and hand them over in exchange for matching bids for their players.

If the system changes to ensure clubs pay a fairer price Carlton might have to trade in another early pick to secure both Camporeales.
The Blues believed the AFL would come back to clubs to consult with them further if it was to consider a change to the system.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Lol. Just as we are about to finally benefit.

Amateurs. Clubs prepare 2-3 years in advance for this stuff.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Yeah... couldn't see this coming...

The AFL is as corrupt as it gets...

Let's see,

Geelong can take Scarlett, Hawkins, Ablett jr etc. no changes.
Filth get Daicos bros, Moore etc. no changes.
Dogs get Libba, Darcy, West etc. no changes.
Lions get Ashcroft and Fletcher, no changes.

We're set to get a couple of players worth around 15-30... we need to fork out extra...

****en joke.

Just like they conveniently abolished the priority pick once we were set to take advantage... could've landed Joel Selwood along with Gibbs...

 

[SurreyBlue]

Every single time…….just obvious. I’m sick and tired of it but let’s see if our club has had enough as well

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

https://archive.md/3R7CS

**** off Laura!

If the AFL implement this at the end of the year, it just confirms that Laura has no ****ing idea of the basic fundamentals how to run the organisation...although I reckon she may have already proven this. Just last week the club was reportedly informed of the changes of interpretation of the 'holding the ball' rule AFTER their final training session.

Clubs need time to plan/prepare for changes to F/S and Academy players. Trades were completed last year in preparation of this year's draft according to the rules that were in place...it now potentially makes those trades worthless!!!

Hopefully commonsense prevails, but I have zero confidence in Laura and the AFL as it currently stands.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Yep, you nailed it. I have zero doubt that our 1st round pick will be on the table at the end of the year, unless the Campos completely fall off the cliff...which is extremely unlikely. You'd imagine that a fair bit will depend upon their performance in the last half of the season, and especially during the carnival.

Either way, we could sell the farm to move up a few spots, but if another club still makes a bid before our 1st rounder, we either miss out on a high draft pick or one of the twins - so it becomes an awful trade.

For mine, I could see us trying to trade in a player like Konstanty or Stone with our 1st on the table, and some spare change coming back for points. Either that or trading down for points and a future 2nd.

Yes but what's a future first for our current first, chopped liver?

 

[coryne]

Reactionary bs from the afl as usual. Anyone with half a brain knows that you can't just force change on a system without a gradual process. Bunch of clowns as usual if this doesn't come in over a 2-3 year period.....

 

[Aphrodite]

Archie Perkins …

Don’t pick me, I’m staying home: AFL world stunned by top 10 prospect Archie Perkins’ call

‘Didn’t come out the way he meant it’: AFL manager defends top 10 prospect’s stunning call

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[katmanblue]

Archie Perkins …

Don’t pick me, I’m staying home: AFL world stunned by top 10 prospect Archie Perkins’ call

‘Didn’t come out the way he meant it’: AFL manager defends top 10 prospect’s stunning call

www.foxsports.com.au

Que?

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[DangerousD]

Archie Perkins …

Don’t pick me, I’m staying home: AFL world stunned by top 10 prospect Archie Perkins’ call

‘Didn’t come out the way he meant it’: AFL manager defends top 10 prospect’s stunning call

www.foxsports.com.au

Good on him, i like it.

I hate the way people, fans, media complain that players are boring, there’s no personality, its just cliche after cliche, then players say something honest in response to a question and they are hounded for it.

If i was a potential top 10 pick and was asked if i wanted to move to GC or Brisbane, id say no too.

 

[lukep_86]

https://archive.md/3R7CS

**** off Laura!

The most frustrating part about this is that Austin and Co. have probably been working towards this for the last 2 trade periods - doing deals that would help us bank late picks and have enough points for the twins. Likewise for the Suns.

If they think change is needed it makes sense, but they can't blindside clubs that have been planning and making trades for this year's draft. All clubs, not just us, definitely need notice about a massive change like this IMO.

 

[DollarsandSense]

100% I reckon SOS bids wherever Stinkilda’s pick is. His hate for us runs deep. Just my thoughts.
He knows we’ll match. Then he’ll prob bid on the other. Just to be a you know what….

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The most frustrating part about this is that Austin and Co. have probably been working towards this for the last 2 trade periods - doing deals that would help us bank late picks and have enough points for the twins. Likewise for the Suns.

If they think change is needed it makes sense, but they can't blindside clubs that have been planning and making trades for this year's draft. All clubs, not just us, definitely need notice about a massive change like this IMO.

I think we'll be fine. Doubt Lucas gets close to first round calculations. Ben a chance but every chance to be early 2nd imo.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

The most frustrating part about this is that Austin and Co. have probably been working towards this for the last 2 trade periods - doing deals that would help us bank late picks and have enough points for the twins. Likewise for the Suns.

If they think change is needed it makes sense, but they can't blindside clubs that have been planning and making trades for this year's draft. All clubs, not just us, definitely need notice about a massive change like this IMO.

Hopefully it's just a bit of a media beat up, cos they probably know just as much as us right now. Good for clicks though.

But you would hope like all **** that clubs have been given some kind of indicator, cos it not only effects the father son bidding, but also potential trades.

We know that many trade negotiations go on during the course of the year, not just in the trade period. So what would happen if we're interested in a player, and we're looking to trade out our 1st round pick as part of the trade. But we can't commit to the trade cos we don't know if we're forced to use that pick....as well as possibly having to trade our future 1st if we want both twins.

The player and their manager would no doubt be looking at other options if we can't give a commitment.

The review was announced over 6 months ago - get off your arses and your fat wallets AFL...FFS!!!!

 

[BlueJet]

100% I reckon SOS bids wherever Stinkilda’s pick is. His hate for us runs deep. Just my thoughts.
He knows we’ll match. Then he’ll prob bid on the other. Just to be a you know what….

Doubtful. There's a reasonable chance that this is SOS's last gig as a List Manager and while I was less than impressed with some of the crap that went on during his time with our club, let's give him some credit here, he's no idiot.
If someone bids earlier than we rate them, (for example, Ben @4), you wish them luck and select your preferred option and go on with your day.

 

[macky99]

I think we'll be fine. Doubt Lucas gets close to first round calculations. Ben a chance but every chance to be early 2nd imo.

Agree highly doubt this change will be implemented for another 1-2 years.
Lucas is not close to a 1st round pick right now, so the article is quite misleading in that respect.
Ben is still late 1st round at best also.

As much as they are good prospects, l don't see either addressing the current gaps on our list.