Preview 2024 Rd 11 Carlton vs Gold Coast Saturday 25th May 1:45PM AEST @ Marvel Stadium

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …


IN: A.Saad, L.Cowan, L.Fogarty

OUT: C.Durdin (Omitted), M.Pittonet (Finger), C.Marchbank (Managed)

AFL team selection: Crucial Blues return

Adam Saad returns as one of three changes for the Blues.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Adam Saad	Jacob Weitering	Lachie Cowan
Half-backs:	Brodie Kemp	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Ollie Hollands	Patrick Cripps	Blake Acres
Half-forwards:	Zac Williams	Harry McKay	Elijah Hollands
Forwards:	Orazio Fantasia	Charlie Curnow	Matthew Owies
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Sam Walsh	Matthew Kennedy
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Jack Carroll	Alex Cincotta
	Lachie Fogarty	George Hewett
Emergencies:	Jaxon Binns	Corey Durdin	Lewis Young

 

[swuzzlebubble]

No Pittonet against Witts is frightening. Rowell, Anderson and Miller will have a field day. Very concerning

Better going "no ruck" and just tackling them if they grab it

 

[JJBagger]

No Pittonet against Witts is frightening. Rowell, Anderson and Miller will have a field day. Very concerning

Disagree. We were winning games with no ruckman last year. We are better with Pitto, but not because he negates the opposition ruckman. It’s on the mids this week

 

[JuddgementDay]

I remembered going to the GCS game last year, we were so depressed as a fan base - but, it was this win that turned our season around.

I think we can do it again.

As a starting point, I think we need more runners - so out Pitto

Apart from that, I’ll take any other selection changes.

Let’s get out of our misery mode and back our side to win this weekend

Let’s go Baggers - us by 23 points

 

[Coops93]

Lot's of talk about Pittonet. I don't know if people have blamed Pittonet as such, but people have drawn a line to his inclusion and our gamestyle changing, and thus our results changing.

Pre Pitto we were transitioning better than we ever have under Voss. Contest and clearance were down, but we were winning playing the modern, premiership tested method. We brought Pittonet in and since the transition all but stopped but clearance and contest has shot up.

You could see that as playing the 2 rucks has hindered out speed on field and ability to transition, and this has always been the trade-off when playing 2 rucks. However, his return also coincided with a couple of injuries in our backline to key transition players - namely Saad & McGovern.

I don't blame people for suggesting Pittonet as upset the balance of the side, but it's hard to know until Saad returns. McGovern coming back hasn't really helped anything in that space it seems, so it'd be disappointing to learn that Saad has sole responsibility for our transition game. The alternative to that is 2 rucks has upset our balance.

The record would show that we were 4-0 pre Pitto with a new and effective transition game and are 2-4 since Pitts return with far improved clearance but poor transition.

Fwiw I'm not suggesting he's at fault entirely, just laying out how it's not really a stretch to say his return has been the point in which a significant shift occurred. I don't know if 2 rucks makes that significant a difference, but maybe it can. Freo are in a similar situation and their style does change a fair bit with 1 ruck vs 2 so maybe there's something to it.

 

[ESKIE]

Lot's of talk about Pittonet. I don't know if people have blamed Pittonet as such, but people have drawn a line to his inclusion and our gamestyle changing, and thus our results changing.

Pre Pitto we were transitioning better than we ever have under Voss. Contest and clearance were down, but we were winning playing the modern, premiership tested method. We brought Pittonet in and since the transition all but stopped but clearance and contest has shot up.

You could see that as playing the 2 rucks has hindered out speed on field and ability to transition, and this has always been the trade-off when playing 2 rucks. However, his return also coincided with a couple of injuries in our backline to key transition players - namely Saad & McGovern.

I don't blame people for suggesting Pittonet as upset the balance of the side, but it's hard to know until Saad returns. McGovern coming back hasn't really helped anything in that space it seems, so it'd be disappointing to learn that Saad has sole responsibility for our transition game. The alternative to that is 2 rucks has upset our balance.

The record would show that we were 4-0 pre Pitto with a new and effective transition game and are 2-4 since Pitts return with far improved clearance but poor transition.

Fwiw I'm not suggesting he's at fault entirely, just laying out how it's not really a stretch to say his return has been the point in which a significant shift occurred. I don't know if 2 rucks makes that significant a difference, but maybe it can. Freo are in a similar situation and their style does change a fair bit with 1 ruck vs 2 so maybe there's something to it.

Tougher draw as well ..

 

[Mondyboy]

Out: Pitto (inj), Durdin, Fantasia

In: Saad, Motts, Fog

Williams to continue playing forward. Carroll to be sub.

Don’t care that Motts hasn’t played football in 3 months. We are doing no favours to Durdin and Fanta playing them. Killing their confidence and ours.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Garters]

Is there a word worse than abysmal if there is that’s what he was.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Superabysmal

 

[JustOneTime]

In the short term this game is critical for us to win given we have Port Adelaide away, Bombers and Cats after. Doesn't look great for us right now for top 4. But lets get step 1 done.

In terms of finals and a flag its more how we are playing rather than only focusing on GC. We have stoppage and attack from stoppage covered. We have completely lost fast transition from defence and are predictable out of defence. I personally think the improvement needs comes from our defenders in one key area along with stability in defensive personnel.

I think the key stat to watch is metres gained. Yes, it's a stat and they can be misleading but i think its on the money.

Metres gained (Champion data): Net metres gained with the ball by a player, by running, kicking or handballing, combining measures towards attacking goal and away from defensive goal.

I think this stat gives us a couple of by-products of the actual stat itself. By completing long metres gained it implies attacking/courageous intent and secondly the attacking intent when this stat is high results in us using multiple options out of defence including the corridor. Low metres gained means predictably going down the wing and high ball inside 50s as we kick sideways (e,g. Young) and central opportunities dry up.

There is a correlation that matches the top sides and metres gained by defensive qtr backs and mids. There is a correlation between Carltons losing patch last year and winning patches with the stat metres gained (high metres gained by the group and we mostly win). There is a correlation of us using the corridor much more when the metres gained stat is higher for our defenders and mids.

Everyone must have noticed that after qtr time vs Gold coast last year the players went crazy after hitting rock bottom and overlapped ran, ran to receive handpasses, kicks ...whatever. Carlton carried this attack for weeks of their 9 match run. Carlton had good metres gained in rounds 1-4 of 2023. Carlton had bad metres gained from round 5 through to the Essendon game...some slight exceptions but the trend is there.

It's not about team metres gained; it's about the players who are designated to rebound completing their metres gained and taking the game on. So that is some of our defenders (Saad, Newman, McGovern) and some of our midfielders (e.g. not Cripps but yes to Cerra).

So the stat is just a KPI. Like last year. They improved that stat in the 9 game stretch but that was because they dropped all sense of control and just ran/attacked/tackled and changed their mindset with the season they thought effectively gone. Prior to that our defence was calamity prone and nervous so less metres gained, which resulted in less run/carry/corridor.

We are now in the same boat with our defenders now. A bit to do with injury to McGovern and Saad plus others. A bit to do with Young playing sideways ball. A bit to do with calamity from Kemp, Mcgovern this year and Williams. Some of that calamity/pressure building on a our defenders as our mid and HFF have been caught out chasing back exposing our defenders confidence.

With our two fwds we dont need to lead metres gained. We just need to find easier goals by attacking this stat a bit more. It means less collision injuries and stoppages. It means less banged up midfielders. Long metres gained means our slow mids dont have to track back and fwd so far in the game getting caught out for speed.

I think it starts with the defensive crew first. Hamill needs to force overlap run/receives and longer kicks. How he enforces and rewards intent on this, is up to him - it his job to find a way given their lack of confidence. And yes, they need to hit the mark with those disposals. But practice makes perfect. It's about which specific players are given the licence to take on those kicks like with the Pies. Carlton have to choose wisely. Young/Cripps should only be handpassing 90% of time.

 

[Blue By Blood]

Lot's of talk about Pittonet. I don't know if people have blamed Pittonet as such, but people have drawn a line to his inclusion and our gamestyle changing, and thus our results changing.

Pre Pitto we were transitioning better than we ever have under Voss. Contest and clearance were down, but we were winning playing the modern, premiership tested method. We brought Pittonet in and since the transition all but stopped but clearance and contest has shot up.

You could see that as playing the 2 rucks has hindered out speed on field and ability to transition, and this has always been the trade-off when playing 2 rucks. However, his return also coincided with a couple of injuries in our backline to key transition players - namely Saad & McGovern.

I don't blame people for suggesting Pittonet as upset the balance of the side, but it's hard to know until Saad returns. McGovern coming back hasn't really helped anything in that space it seems, so it'd be disappointing to learn that Saad has sole responsibility for our transition game. The alternative to that is 2 rucks has upset our balance.

The record would show that we were 4-0 pre Pitto with a new and effective transition game and are 2-4 since Pitts return with far improved clearance but poor transition.

Fwiw I'm not suggesting he's at fault entirely, just laying out how it's not really a stretch to say his return has been the point in which a significant shift occurred. I don't know if 2 rucks makes that significant a difference, but maybe it can. Freo are in a similar situation and their style does change a fair bit with 1 ruck vs 2 so maybe there's something to it.

Remember that going 4-0 without Pitto was against the Lions, Tigers, North and Fremantle - all bottom 8 teams so far this year.

The 2-4 with Pitto have been against Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne and Sydney.

The quality of opposition impacts on ability to generate effective, clean transition.

From what I’ve seen, we are a far better team with Pitto main rucking. One player should not significantly compromise our rebound so heavily and I suspect it’s due to missing key personnel, lack of cohesion with the team constantly changing, and the quality of opponent. The trouble is we never have our full team available to be able to rule out certain theories. Pitto strengthens our clearance game giving us more inside 50s, higher score from stoppage power, and cleaner breakaways. Even with two rucks out there, the defenders should be able to switch angles, hit accurate kicks, and have the mentality to create and be daring with ball in hand. A lot of this is mindset and against the good teams we go into our shells a bit and slow play with long kicks down the line.

 

[Arr0w]

Absolutely. We as supporters are extremely reactive. The adage holds - "Things are never as bad or as good as they seem".

Hard to be flexible when so many are missing through injury. Do we risk upsetting a settled line to sure up another?

As it stands, we're 6-4, having just come out of an extremely tough 5 weeks of footy. To put things into context, we're the only team ever to be sitting 10th with a record of 6-4. Only once prior has a team at 6-4 not been in the top 8 after 10 rounds (Port Adelaide in 2018).

Reactive absolutely, but flipping from everything is great, to poor, and back again, generally on the back of a result

Like the click bait win or loss culture

 

[Arr0w]

I'm wondering if the MC are considering both Young and S Durdin this week

 

[Garters]

What's the smart money saying on weitering getting up

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

2 rucks means an over tall forward line, with less ability to apply pressure and create turnovers...it's not about Pitto.

 

[T2B_]

If Boyd is our best distributor we are where we are because of him the "best" ....he makes as many clangers as anyone else -not consistent amongst a bunch of other not-consistent kicks back there - Newman/McGovrn/Williams all do fantastic things at times and all clangerrama on other occasions- the most consistent good kick is Saad but his good kicks are usually when he has run to find space andmake territory and has the opposition back peddling.

I'd have to respectfully disagree on this one JaB. Boyd is an absolutely beautiful kick, probably should be utilised more, but even he can't pull of miracles when what's up ahead isn't creating enough space or options. In a team like Geelong or Sydney he'd be considered absolutely lethal coming out of D50, IMO.

 

[JustaBattler]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/05...e-best-kick-in-the-competition-coming-out-of/

didnt change my miond when I read it a week ago before teh Sydney game and doesn't change my mind taday...old news off a bunch of sillies at Champion data

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

Lot's of talk about Pittonet. I don't know if people have blamed Pittonet as such, but people have drawn a line to his inclusion and our gamestyle changing, and thus our results changing.

Pre Pitto we were transitioning better than we ever have under Voss. Contest and clearance were down, but we were winning playing the modern, premiership tested method. We brought Pittonet in and since the transition all but stopped but clearance and contest has shot up.

You could see that as playing the 2 rucks has hindered out speed on field and ability to transition, and this has always been the trade-off when playing 2 rucks. However, his return also coincided with a couple of injuries in our backline to key transition players - namely Saad & McGovern.

I don't blame people for suggesting Pittonet as upset the balance of the side, but it's hard to know until Saad returns. McGovern coming back hasn't really helped anything in that space it seems, so it'd be disappointing to learn that Saad has sole responsibility for our transition game. The alternative to that is 2 rucks has upset our balance.

The record would show that we were 4-0 pre Pitto with a new and effective transition game and are 2-4 since Pitts return with far improved clearance but poor transition.

Fwiw I'm not suggesting he's at fault entirely, just laying out how it's not really a stretch to say his return has been the point in which a significant shift occurred. I don't know if 2 rucks makes that significant a difference, but maybe it can. Freo are in a similar situation and their style does change a fair bit with 1 ruck vs 2 so maybe there's something to it.

On the flip side, one might argue we wouldn't have won the two games without Pittonet's exceptional performances. Beat Max Gawn who is Mebourne's most influential player.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I'm wondering if the MC are considering both Young and S Durdin this week

Could understand Young as back up ruck option, the 2 of them would mean Weiters is out

 

[JustaBattler]

I'd have to respectfully disagree on this one JaB. Boyd is an absolutely beautiful kick, probably should be utilised more, but even he can't pull of miracles when what's up ahead isn't creating enough space or options. In a team like Geelong or Sydney he'd be considered absolutely lethal coming out of D50, IMO.

It si ok to disagree mate I dont care - I think Carlton supporters massively over rate their players - massively - there are two first year players at Suns that shame all our kicks - to describe Boyd as the best kick in the competition is an example of this - Boyd can pull off some good kicks and pulls off some howlers as well...

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Boyd makes one poor decision resulting in a goal (Walsh probably still could have marked it) and suddenly he's "prone to howlers" by foot... Spare me

 

[JustaBattler]

Saad makes less clangers than Boyd and Gov, but he isn't prepared to take the game changing, riskier kicks.
Even Naicos makes quite a few clangers, but takes huge chances.
But by golly he looks good when most of them work.

They are all pedestrian as far as consistency goes - all of them - I trust Saad to make the best risk adjusted decisions in teh team-by a long way - the rest of them are flaky and nowhere near the best kicks in the competition most of the time - it might help if teh midfield group actually ran receiving patterns to help - but they dont- it is hard to play smart football when most players aren't.

 

[Lukeblueboy]

I’m happy to go back and revisit the tdk/harry ruck combo and see how it performs now

 

[Red_man2008]

Saad makes less clangers than Boyd and Gov, but he isn't prepared to take the game changing, riskier kicks.
Even Naicos makes quite a few clangers, but takes huge chances.
But by golly he looks good when most of them work.

Out of 21 kicks on the weekend Naicos hit 6 targets.

 

[JustaBattler]

Boyd makes one poor decision resulting in a goal (Walsh probably still could have marked it) and suddenly he's "prone to howlers" by foot... Spare me

Boyd has only kciked one clanger now has he?

ok mate- Boyd the game's best kick - and let me know when you wake up from happy land.

 

[T2B_]

Out of 21 kicks on the weekend Naicos hit 6 targets.

Yep, 58% DE

 

[JustaBattler]

Out of 21 kicks on the weekend Naicos hit 6 targets.

Daicos would be Carlton;'s best kick by a million miles times a million miles....on a bad day.