Preview 2024 Rd 11 Carlton vs Gold Coast Saturday 25th May 1:45PM AEST @ Marvel Stadium

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …


IN: A.Saad, L.Cowan, L.Fogarty

OUT: C.Durdin (Omitted), M.Pittonet (Finger), C.Marchbank (Managed)

AFL team selection: Crucial Blues return

Adam Saad returns as one of three changes for the Blues.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Adam Saad	Jacob Weitering	Lachie Cowan
Half-backs:	Brodie Kemp	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Ollie Hollands	Patrick Cripps	Blake Acres
Half-forwards:	Zac Williams	Harry McKay	Elijah Hollands
Forwards:	Orazio Fantasia	Charlie Curnow	Matthew Owies
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Sam Walsh	Matthew Kennedy
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Jack Carroll	Alex Cincotta
	Lachie Fogarty	George Hewett
Emergencies:	Jaxon Binns	Corey Durdin	Lewis Young

 

[lily of laguna]

Re Voss presser…

Yes of course ”get back to what we do best” but how about changing things up a little when it’s not working…

I’d like to see more thinking/creativity from the coaches box on game day.

We have become way too predictable.

We have seen a shift from scoring from stoppage to scores from turnover change the way we win games, which to me indicates that the coaching group are capable of being creative and changing methodology. A team that is undergoing the constant shuffle of players in and out probably hinders adding layers especially in the heat of a game, but I do see phases of play throughout games. We certainly have learnt how to manage the game when it's close at the end, although recently we have struggled to run out the games with fatigue setting in.

I dont think we have found enough balance in the methodology within game yet which I hope is addressed as we move toward finals, keeping a smaller number of changes weekly between games should help with cohesion and game play.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We never travel well. I'd love to turn it around.

To be fair, we've won 2/3 games out of Melbourne so far this year...

 

[blues4flag]

For me the concern is how we've regressed from it since the beginning of the year with the emphasis being on contest. I'm not sure one should be overhauled at the expense of the other.

I like that our strength if clearance, it's a great weapon, but I'm more worried about our anaemic rebound and transition than I am about the contest.

Likewise, but I wonder how much of that is the injuries to Saad, McGovern and to a lesser extent Weitering. Teams are hemming us in and refusing to give us the short kick out of D50. We've lacked the players to be able to penetrate over the zone or to the fat side.

Williams has struggled when he's been there at all, Newman can spot up a short kick but isn't fast nor penetrating, Boyd struggles to find the footy and for whatever reason isn't being used as that rebounding option.

Hoping Saad in particular helps a lot. Him and McGovern will force teams to defend more of the ground, rather than just the narrow side.

 

[Soapy V]

For me the concern is how we've regressed from it since the beginning of the year with the emphasis being on contest. I'm not sure one should be overhauled at the expense of the other.

I like that our strength if clearance, it's a great weapon, but I'm more worried about our anaemic rebound and transition than I am about the contest.

Have we regressed? I'm not sure we have ever got going this year

Our wins have been on the back of our Stars doing well. GWS for example was Cripps & Walsh playing amazing contested games. We haven't played a 4 quarter game all year

I agree about rebound and transition. It's an issue, but I don't think we are doing either contested ball or transition well

My take is we still rely too much on our best 22 and fall away badly after that. Get our best side on the park and we can beat anyone. If Cripps, Walsh, McKay or Charlie star we can beat anyone. Shut them down and we struggle. No fluke that the last two weeks Walsh has been tagged heavily

The issue is support and others standing up to help? I sometimes wonder whether it's Coaching or Development or our focus on having "role" players to support our stars and not allowing them to be more proactive. I see so much more in names like Boyd, Cincotta, Cowan, Hollands yet I believe they aren't allowed to play their natural games. IMO they seem reactive

 

[Arr0w]

For me the concern is how we've regressed from it since the beginning of the year with the emphasis being on contest. I'm not sure one should be overhauled at the expense of the other.

I like that our strength if clearance, it's a great weapon, but I'm more worried about our anaemic rebound and transition than I am about the contest.

We have certainly stuttered 1st half of this year, same period last year.

Perhaps we might see a more simplistic approach again

Personally, I see it as intent and commitment from the players, but Voss needs to ignite them

 

[lily of laguna]

For me the concern is how we've regressed from it since the beginning of the year with the emphasis being on contest. I'm not sure one should be overhauled at the expense of the other.

I like that our strength if clearance, it's a great weapon, but I'm more worried about our anaemic rebound and transition than I am about the contest.

We have struggled to rebound and transition, I think our back line has been very unsettled this season which can make a big difference.

 

[Michael Jezz]

How would you know that?
De Koning & Weitering had minor injuries, Saad & Fogarty were expected to return around this time.

lf we cannot win this one, we are in real trouble to retrieve the season.

This is tipping. I don't know. It is my best judgement on what I see. I am not sure the carlton forum members base their predictions on playing last year's version of Gold Coast . We are playing a 100% fit, Hardwick coached, extremely talented Gold Coast Side off a 9 day break. Any win with our current injury list is fantastic.

 

[Sam The Doc]

Fog important return, but gee Saad being out has hurt massively...

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Playing Gold Coast at the top of their game with no injuries.
Carlton are not playing well and decimated by injuries
The game will depend on the fitness of Weitering and Saad are.
Gold Coast by 5 points

Top of their game?
They're 3-2 in their last 5, with 2 of the wins coming against WC and North and the other against a depleted Cats (missing what? 6 of their best?) who aren't travelling well. Cats game was in Darwin, where GC had the luxury getting used to the conditions the week before in a training drill against one of the worst teams in the comp.
The other games were losses to Swans in Sydney and Lions in Brisbane, where they put up a combined 102pts.
GC are a reasonable team, but we should be able to beat them at Marvel, with the players we have coming back.

My head tells me that we should win this by 6+ goals, but my heart tells me it will be closer.

 

[jezzatigerbrent]

It is great to get Saad back, even better now Cincotta seems to have nailed the lock down small defender role. That should free Saad to be a bit more free wheeling again.
Also happy Fog is back in. Just brings constant pressure, something we have been sorely lacking in recent weeks.

Maybe being overly optimistic but expecting our injury woes to lessen over the next month around the bye.
This puts pressure on those fringe guys like Fantasia, Cowan, Carroll etc. to cement a role before the run into finals.

I know it can be seen as nonsense talk and every game matters but this one really feels like "must win".

I don't think Fantasia needs any more pressure other than he needs to introduce himself to the pig skin thingy ....handy if he does get a shot on Goal that he nails it ; unlike the set shot he missed towards the end of the Collingwood? game from 35 mtr out

 

[Michael Jezz]

We have certainly stuttered 1st half of this year, same period last year.

Perhaps we might see a more simplistic approach again

Personally, I see it as intent and commitment from the players, but Voss needs to ignite them

I think the competition has improved and we have stagnated. We are limited by our outside run and skill execution. E Hollands is the only new addition impacting our side. Bulldogs, Suns, Bombers, Swans are playing better football. The standard of the 6th to 12th teams is higher than last year.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Suns the real deal this year. We lose and it's bye bye finals. Huge game.

No its not. We will make finals, even if we lose. We can win a final. I don't believe we can win the flag.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

For me the concern is how we've regressed from it since the beginning of the year with the emphasis being on contest. I'm not sure one should be overhauled at the expense of the other.

I like that our strength if clearance, it's a great weapon, but I'm more worried about our anaemic rebound and transition than I am about the contest.

Our strength isn't clearance. We arebottom of the league for points against from stoppage.

Our strength should be clearance.

Premiership teams win playing to their strength. How bout we make our strength a strength again and then reassess...

 

[macky99]

This is tipping. I don't know. It is my best judgement on what I see. I am not sure the carlton forum members base their predictions on playing last year's version of Gold Coast . We are playing a 100% fit, Hardwick coached, extremely talented Gold Coast Side off a 9 day break. Any win with our current injury list is fantastic.

l don't see any excuse for losing this one, we have the major core of our top 8 players out there.
l am yet to see Gold Coast perform at a high level in Melbourne, long way back if we let this one slip with 2 tough ones before the bye.

 

[gbatman]

Are we as bad as we have been displaying? We have had a run playing all the better teams and only managed to beat one. That suggests to me we probably aren't top 4 quality. But are we finals quality? A game like this will go a long way to deciding that.

Suns are going ok. Currently a side which is competing with us for that spot in the finals.

One of my biggest concern is that we may have been worked out. Teams are going to the effort of applying extreme tackling pressure if the ball is kept in close and offensively they are going to the effort to get the ball out wide and into space. This takes away our clearance and contested game while it exposes our lack of pace on the inside. This is definitely the game plan teams are successfully using against us however you have to be good enough and quick enough to implement it successfully.

I like going back to one ruck. DeKoning will do well I think. Doesn't have to win a heap of taps but if he jumps into Witts all day then that takes away Witts' control and makes the contest a 50/50.

Things I'd like to see. Walsh getting more ball forward side of stoppages and in the field. I'd rather see him get 25 possessions and be really damaging than get 40 but have no real impact on the game.

Forward momentum at stoppages. We're slow, get our big bodies moving forward and keep the ball going forward. Crash and bash and keep it simple. We're good when our mids are moving and we get the ball out in front of them. Standing, wrestling and keeping it in close will see us lose again.

We have picked 8 defenders, 9 if you count Williams? Or will one be sub or will one be played in another position?

Could we see Cincotta or Cowan join the onball group? Something needs to change in there. Teams are going to eat us alive with Hewett, Kennedy and Cripps plodding around in there. Are we going to do what the better teams have done and discover and utilise them as pressure mids?

We have some options to go through the middle. Fogarty and Hollands. I hope we use them.

Legs peed, intensity, closing speed, tackling and pressure have not been qualities of our midfield but if that were to change we will finally get to use the talent in our defence and become a good rebounding side.

McKay in the ruck. Gee he was good in there early, they we f***ed it all up by bringing Pittonet in. Took away two things that were working and added to our slow lack of run issue. Not our coaches finest moments that one.

We can win this one. I expect us to. But that doesn't mean it will be easy. Suns can play, they have grown up finally and are a threat to make finals. Our season on the other hand hangs in the balance. Lose and I think we will probably miss finals.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Top of their game?
They're 3-2 in their last 5, with 2 of the wins coming against WC and North and the other against a depleted Cats (missing what? 6 of their best?) who aren't travelling well. Cats game was in Darwin, where GC had the luxury getting used to the conditions the week before in a training drill against one of the worst teams in the comp.
The other games were losses to Swans in Sydney and Lions in Brisbane, where they put up a combined 102pts.
GC are a reasonable team, but we should be able to beat them at Marvel, with the players we have coming back.

My head tells me that we should win this by 6+ goals, but my heart tells me it will be closer.

Let's hope you are right. Gold Coast are Coming

 

[Sam The Doc]

l don't see any excuse for losing this one, we have the major core of our top 8 players out there.
l am yet to see Gold Coast perform at a high level in Melbourne, long way back if we let this one slip with 2 tough ones before the bye.

People need to move on from the SCG performance. We always play our absolute worst footy there.
Haven't been too bad at the dome this season either.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Let's hope you are right. Gold Coast are Coming

Yeah, but we've been coming longer and they know it!

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Yeah, but we've been coming longer and they know it!

Phrasing?

 

[Soapy V]

Fog important return, but gee Saad being out has hurt massively...

Put Cerra Saad Motlop & Fogarty back into our side and I see a big difference

 

[Blue since 72]

Watching Blakey torch our players was genuinely like watching a video game where the character activates super speed and blasts away

He does that to everyone.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

We certainly have learnt how to manage the game when it's close at the end, although recently we have struggled to run out the games with fatigue setting in.

I still think we are a little shaky in tight finishes.

- Beat Freo - played a good last 10 minutes so that's a plus.

- Lost to Adelaide

- Won versus GWS but didn't look comfortable in the last 5 mins.

- Lost to Collingwood

- Beat Melbourne - only just

 

[Coops93]

Our strength isn't clearance. We arebottom of the league for points against from stoppage.

Our strength should be clearance.

Premiership teams win playing to their strength. How bout we make our strength a strength again and then reassess...

I'm not sure how you could say clearance and stoppage aren't our strength. We're no.1 from ctr clearances, 6th for stoppage clearances, no.1 for overall clearance and 2nd in the league in scores from stoppage. We're also no.1 in the comp for contested possessions.

Fwiw we're 10th in scores from kick in, 5th in scores from turn over (Front half turnovers have been a strength of ours in particular) and 13th from scores from the back half.

 

[Coops93]

In looking at the above stats I had a little look at the Suns and their defensive 50 stats made for interesting reading regarding how we match up. The key thing I noticed was their defensive profile and how other teams with a similar one have had success against us.

The Suns have the lowest 1v1 loss % in the league at 13.6% (meaning they only lose 13.6% of 1v1s inside D 50). League average is 27.3%, so they're twice as good as league average. Fwiw we're over average at 28.3% loss rate. Collins and Ballard are good 1v1 and Mac Andrew has been a revelation playing as a help defender.

The other that caught my eye was that they are 3rd for scores from defensive half. The 2 teams above them are Sydney and Adelaide. We obviously just got pumped by Sydney, and we lost to Adelaide when they weren't in great form. The 2 below them are Geelong and Collingwood, also losses. There's enough of a sample size there to show that teams that score from the defensive half really hurt us.

Will be interesting to see how the emphasis on winning the contest marries up with our weakness against sides with strong back half scoring. Fwiw the Suns are 4th in scores from stoppage and are only 2 points behind us in that category, so we'll have to really be on to beat them in just that spot before worrying about the transition.

 

[JustOneTime]

If we want to see less tiredness from our mids then our defenders have to up their confidence and increase rebound run and overlap out of defence. Saad back is a big help and we need Mcgovern to take corridor opportunities.

Cincotta, Boyd and Cowan have to find the confidence to overlap run/receive after a Saad/Mcgovern/Newman kick. This will lead to more attacking transition options out of defence rather than high ball down the wing. It will help our mids not grind themselves into exhaustion leaving us completely flat at times.

Releasing Boyd is another option instead of Newman but can he do it.

This is our weakness to work on from here out. Our defenders are playing very safe compared to that 2023 GC game after quarter time where our defenders went bezerk in overlap run.