AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 1

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[Rank]

Soligo 20
Thilthorpe 2

Cadman 2
Turner 1

Uwland 15
Powell 15
Long 1 SB bonus @21.50

 

[Del125763]

More I think about this, more I like it

$4.25/$11/$35/$125 for 3-6

5th year key forward. Has kicked 5 twice in 53 games but has had games where he’s dominated short periods (3 goals in the 2nd half v St Kilda in the wet in Cairns back in his first season, 2.2 in the first quarter v Sydney last game 2024 spring to mind), he is an excellent contested mark (38 in 2023 which was good for 13th in the comp), & he’s got the perfect match up tomorrow.

It might well be Fog who goes off but I suspect Wilkie goes to him and keeps him honest.

Then it’s Cordy to either Thilthorpe or Tex, with Webster on the other. Either way if Nicks can actually get the Crows to utilise the forward line advantage and move quickly instead of being the most boring coach in football (even with Longmuir still coaching) then I think the stars align for Thrillho

My observation of watching Thilthorpe in the pre-season game against Brisbane was he was playing more up the ground a bit like McKay on Friday night. Thats the only thing that may potentially not get him to the goals tomorrow.

I might place a few bets in-play depending on how Nicks plays him the first quarter. $2.85 to score a Goal in a quarter is fair odds, if I see him playing predominantly in the forward line.

 

[Rank]

More I think about this, more I like it

$4.25/$11/$35/$125 for 3-6

5th year key forward. Has kicked 5 twice in 53 games but has had games where he’s dominated short periods (3 goals in the 2nd half v St Kilda in the wet in Cairns back in his first season, 2.2 in the first quarter v Sydney last game 2024 spring to mind), he is an excellent contested mark (38 in 2023 which was good for 13th in the comp), & he’s got the perfect match up tomorrow.

It might well be Fog who goes off but I suspect Wilkie goes to him and keeps him honest.

Then it’s Cordy to either Thilthorpe or Tex, with Webster on the other. Either way if Nicks can actually get the Crows to utilise the forward line advantage and move quickly instead of being the most boring coach in football (even with Longmuir still coaching) then I think the stars align for Thrillho

I got on early 4,5,6 @12, 40, 150. I'd be happy if he kicked 3 now, 4 5 or 6 would be awesome

 

[Rank]

My observation of watching Thilthorpe in the pre-season game against Brisbane was he was playing more up the ground a bit like McKay on Friday night. Thats the only thing that may potentially not get him to the goals tomorrow.

I might place a few bets in-play depending on how Nicks plays him the first quarter. $2.85 to score a Goal in a quarter is fair odds, if I see him playing predominantly in the forward line.

He will give O'Brian a spell in the ruck at times but most of the time he'll be foward

 

[Del125763]

A small forward or midfielder to bob up and potentially win the Most goals from this group in Dees v Giants




Brent Daniels at $19 (0.25u)
Toby Bedford at $46 (0.10u)
Jack Viney at $101 (0.10u)
Clayton Oliver at $101 (0.10u)
Finn Callaghan at $81 (0.10u)
Tom Green at $101 (0.10u)
Josh Kelly at $71 (0.10u)

2 goals could tie in a dead heat I feel. Toby Greene should start favourite but he hasn't been the same sort of player the 2nd half of 2024 and last week. He isn't a 1 in 5 chance to win that group , if you include dead heat rules.

Any of those listed players could easily snag 3 goals on their day.

 

[Rank]

A small forward or midfielder to bob up and potentially win the Most goals from this group in Dees v Giants

View attachment 2251071


Brent Daniels at $19 (0.25u)
Toby Bedford at $46 (0.10u)
Jack Viney at $101 (0.10u)
Clayton Oliver at $101 (0.10u)
Finn Callaghan at $81 (0.10u)
Tom Green at $101 (0.10u)
Josh Kelly at $71 (0.10u)

2 goals could tie in a dead heat I feel. Toby Greene should start favourite but he hasn't been the same sort of player the 2nd half of 2024 and last week. He isn't a 1 in 5 chance to win that group , if you include dead heat rules.

Any of those listed players could easily snag 3 goals on their day.

I can't after time, but I will say I'd be a very happy man if Thilthorpe kicks 3 and Daniels kicks 2

 

[pacemaker]

Getting this in early for tomorrows Pick Em, 3 game slate.


Matt Rowell Over 95.5 AFL Fantasy Points v West Coast. Loves playing West Coast. 14 Brownlow Votes from 7 games. Was expecting the line to be higher, somewhere in the triple figures . Very happy to get mid 90s on a Fantasy line for Rowell.

Steve May Under 6.5 Marks. Love that I have an option to take the unders on marks. Heavy rain means the unders on the mark is a system play. Forecast says there will be rain pre-game and during the game.

Darcy Fogarty Over 1.5 Goals- Seeing around $1.85-$1.92 on Sportsbooks. I think this game will be high scoring with plenty of goals both ways. Watched Brisbane v Adelaide pre-season, Fog looked fairly ordinary that day but still kicked 3 goals in that match. Will get opportunities and volume.

Odds 6.50 (1 unit stake)

Was contemplating these legs before reading this. Was going to include Whitfield and and Lever unders as well due to the conditions but will just tail this for 3 legs.

 

[Del125763]

Sportsbet Free Hit for Adelaide v Saints:

Thilthorpe 4+ Goals
Tex Walker 3+ Goals
Rankine 2+ Goals

Odds: $75.50

Also small plays on Thilthorpe Ladder:
5+ Goals at $35 (0.5u)
6+ Goals at $91 (0.5u)

Happy to follow HTPunter and Rank on this one. Im quite surprised the totals line is quite low 159.5 pts. Believe that should be much higher. Thinking the totals line is that because of past reputation of the Saints but this lineup looks pretty different in game style without those key players from last year.


Also done a multi for AGS for Thilthorpe 1st, 2nd and 4th $19.75 (1u). This is what happened in his last 5 goal tally. There might be a quite period where there is a lull in the game and if there is one it probably is the 3rd quarter.

And Thilthorpe AGS in all 4 quarters at $47.50 (0.5u)

 

[the_big_sav]

A small forward or midfielder to bob up and potentially win the Most goals from this group in Dees v Giants

View attachment 2251071


Brent Daniels at $19 (0.25u)
Toby Bedford at $46 (0.10u)
Jack Viney at $101 (0.10u)
Clayton Oliver at $101 (0.10u)
Finn Callaghan at $81 (0.10u)
Tom Green at $101 (0.10u)
Josh Kelly at $71 (0.10u)

2 goals could tie in a dead heat I feel. Toby Greene should start favourite but he hasn't been the same sort of player the 2nd half of 2024 and last week. He isn't a 1 in 5 chance to win that group , if you include dead heat rules.

Any of those listed players could easily snag 3 goals on their day.

Conigliooooooo

 

[demon_fanatic]

yeh rain is missing Adelaide 158.5 is quite low I feel.. Wilkie can only take one of the big 3 forwards so I am sure Adelaide should score ok to have this total well in play. As long as Saints can half turn up this total should hit, Adelaide Oval is traditionally a nice ground for overs during the day

 

[Modra6]

Dawson 2
ANB 2
$51 @ Toppy

 

[Del125763]

Just noticed that Dabble have pulled off their Pick ‘Em unders/overs for marks in the Dees v Giants game. Wanted to go in a bit more on another marks unders parlay.

I’m not in Melbourne but gathering the rain is getting heavier?

 

[Rank]

Thilthorpe 2
Rachele 2
Keays 1
Soligo 20 d @7.25 SB free hit

 

[Play On Advantage]

Followed Thilthorpe bets in here

Also think Rachele for 2/3/4 is good value at 3/9/23 PB

Has traditionally started the season much better than he finishes it with a bit of a bang. Round 1 games he's kicked 5, 3 & 3.

Will be perma forward and the other smalls (ANB, *Peatling, *Rankine) rotating through aren't noted goal kickers or *spending more time in and around the mids)

 

[Del125763]

Lovely Bayley Fritsch and what he has achieved. But this isn’t a good spot for him to kick multiple goals today against this Giants defence and in this weather.

Taken this for a 0.5u at $12.72 with the Rocket Boost .

 

[GROTTO]

ELENI RED ALERT - along with Kelli commentating.

 

[HTPunter]

TAB is such a dog of a site. Their tackle & mark markets are all over the place - e.g. they give you odds for Cumming 4 & 10 tackles, but not 6 & 8, O’Brien is only available for 8 & 10, if you want Michalanney tackles you can have short odds for 2 ($1.10), but none for 4, but at least you can get 6 & 8

???

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

That St Kilda side looks pretty dog shit on paper.

Surely it’s a pummeling.

 

[Del125763]

That St Kilda side looks pretty dog shit on paper.

Surely it’s a pummeling.

If Caminiti is your leading forward- I think they are asking for trouble.

The team they had on paper this morning after Caminiti they next tallest big forward were 3 guys at 185 cm.

I just think it will take a bit of time for this team to gel with no : Membrey, Battle, Dougal Howard, Owens, Phillipou, Max King, Brad Crouch retiring.

 

[Rank]

Thanks Tex for giving Filthy a goal

 

[Rank]

Go Filthy 4 more please, at least 1

 

[Rank]

Hinge you dog campaigner, burns Fithy open at the top of the square

 

[HTPunter]

Hinge you dog campaigner, burns Fithy open at the top of the square

Between that & the dropped mark for Dawsons goal, was a 4 goal chance quarter. Can’t complain too much though as he’s given himself (us) every chance

 

[Rank]

Between that & the dropped mark for Dawsons goal, was a 4 goal chance quarter. Can’t complain too much though as he’s given himself (us) every chance

Yep has missed a couple of marks in good spots

 

[Rank]

Ain't gonna happen and I'm gonna be Filthy