2025 Giro D'Italia

[eth-dog]

About 5 and a half weeks away. Grande Partenza in Albania for 3 days, before a "travel" day and then the 18 other stages in Italy with one small sojourn into Slovenia on Stage 16. Looks like 6 flat stages, 2 ITT's, 6 hilly stages and 7 genuine mountain stages, most of which are backended.

Top GC candidates are Poole, Carapaz, Ayuso, Yates x2, Roglic, Hindley, Landa, Arensmen, Bernal, Meintjes, Ciccone, Gaudu, Rubio, Zana, Plapp, Tiberi, Bilbao, Gee and Pidcock with the likes of Alaphilippe or Hirschi expected for Tudor as well.

Top sprinters are Kooij, Fretin, Pederson, Groves, Bennett, Van Aert, Thijssen and Magnier with Nizzolo expected there for Q36.5 and either Dainese or De Kleijn for Tudor.

Top puncheurs are Pederson, Van Aert, Ulissi and Strong with Trentin to likely be in there as well.

My predictions:

Pink: Primoz Roglic wins; Juan Ayuso and Derek Gee to make up the podium, Thymen Arensmen my podium smokie.
Ciclamino: Van Aert from Groves and Pederson
KOM: Depends on who loses time early but I can also see Hirschi chasing this as well instead of GC.
White: Tiberi the hot favourite with Plapp and Isaac Del Toro the main challengers.

 

[eth-dog]

Two weeks out, a way too early top 10 prediction:

1. Primoz Roglic
2. Juan Ayuso
3. Derek Gee
4. Simon Yates
5. Egan Bernal
6. Michael Storer
7. Jai Hindley
8. Adam Yates
9. Antonio Tiberi
10. Einar Rubio

 

[Orange Agent]

I'm wondering how long it takes for the cracks to show in the UAE camp and the team implodes. Best thing that can happen for them is Ayuso bowing out/losing heaps of time early. I don't think they are or will be all in for him.

If Astana had somebody strong to ride for they could really shake it up, good balanced team but not sure Fortunato is the guy for this level of race.

Bahrain should be good I think.

Jayco, stage hunting.

 

[Sleezy]

I'm wondering how long it takes for the cracks to show in the UAE camp and the team implodes. Best thing that can happen for them is Ayuso bowing out/losing heaps of time early. I don't think they are or will be all in for him.

If Astana had somebody strong to ride for they could really shake it up, good balanced team but not sure Fortunato is the guy for this level of race.

Bahrain should be good I think.

Jayco, stage hunting.

I definitely get the impression that UAE is a team of champions, not a champion team.

When Tadej is there, he's so clearly the leader that the direction is clear. But when he's not...

 

[eth-dog]

I definitely get the impression that UAE is a team of champions, not a champion team.

When Tadej is there, he's so clearly the leader that the direction is clear. But when he's not...

Ayuso is clearly the second best rider on the roster

 

[99 Problems]

I definitely get the impression that UAE is a team of champions, not a champion team.

When Tadej is there, he's so clearly the leader that the direction is clear. But when he's not...

Pog being so dominant really makes it hard to keep the others happy. Him riding 2 grand tours a season and a bunch of classics doesn’t leave the rest a bunch to fight over. Especially when a handful of them would be clear leaders at other teams and are more than capable of podiuming or even winning a Giro.

 

[eth-dog]

Pog being so dominant really makes it hard to keep the others happy. Him riding 2 grand tours a season and a bunch of classics doesn’t leave the rest a bunch to fight over. Especially when a handful of them would be clear leaders at other teams and are more than capable of podiuming or even winning a Giro.

Ayuso would probably be favourite outside of the Big 4, let's be real here. Pogi also not confirmed for the Vuelta yet so could be protected again there

 

[99 Problems]

Ayuso would probably be favourite outside of the Big 4, let's be real here. Pogi also not confirmed for the Vuelta yet so could be protected again there

Ayuso and Almeida could win any race without Pog and Jonas. Yates could chase a podium and at most teams Vine would get the chance to see what he could do on GC. Del Toro will expect a chance at some stage.

Pog will be at the Vuelta unless something goes wrong between now and then. It’s not sustainable for them to keep that level of talent happy with so few top level stage races to go around

 

[eth-dog]

Ayuso and Almeida could win any race without Pog and Jonas. Yates could chase a podium and at most teams Vine would get the chance to see what he could do on GC. Del Toro will expect a chance at some stage.

Pog will be at the Vuelta unless something goes wrong between now and then. It’s not sustainable for them to keep that level of talent happy with so few top level stage races to go around

I'd say Almeida will go somewhere end of next year. He and Ayuso clearly don't get along.

 

[Orange Agent]

Road surfaces not suitable for a race like this. I hope some better research goes into whichever countries they go to in future years.

 

[eth-dog]

Roglic will be in pink by stage 10, maybe let someone not from UAE (unless it's McNulty to force them to defend him) and then take it back late

 

[Vader]

Roglic will be in pink by stage 10, maybe let someone not from UAE (unless it's McNulty to force them to defend him) and then take it back late

It won't take him that long. Stage 7 finishes on top of a Cat 1 climb, which should see the end of Pedersen's time in pink.

Stages 4-6 are all relatively flat. Stage 6 does have a Cat 2 & Cat 3 climb, but they are relatively early in the stage. There's no reason to think that Pedersen will lose pink on any of these stages.

The problem with letting McNulty take pink is how would they engineer it? McNulty is unlikely to go in any breakaways, given that the whole team is built around supporting Ayuso directly.

 

[eth-dog]

It won't take him that long. Stage 7 finishes on top of a Cat 1 climb, which should see the end of Pedersen's time in pink.

Stages 4-6 are all relatively flat. Stage 6 does have a Cat 2 & Cat 3 climb, but they are relatively early in the stage. There's no reason to think that Pedersen will lose pink on any of these stages.

The problem with letting McNulty take pink is how would they engineer it? McNulty is unlikely to go in any breakaways, given that the whole team is built around supporting Ayuso directly.

He might let the break take pink on 7 and then get close on 10

 

[Vader]

He might let the break take pink on 7 and then get close on 10

Maybe... but after a week in the flat country, I suspect the GC riders will be itching for a decent hitout, to establish who is boss.

The final Cat 1 climb is only 5.7km @ 8% average (max 14%), so it's not exactly the toughest assignment they'll face during the race. It is, however, the first reasonably difficult assignment...

 

[Orange Agent]

UAE have to use their numerical advantage, Vine has to get into a breakaway in the next couple of days.

 

[Orange Agent]

Roglic is in very good form here. Just casually splitting the bunch to pieces on a small uphill on a stage he has no chance at winning. Big, big warning shot.

 

[eth-dog]

Roglic is in very good form here. Just casually splitting the bunch to pieces on a small uphill on a stage he has no chance at winning. Big, big warning shot.

Just shows the gap between the big 4 and the rest. If he stays upright he wins comfortably.

 

[Sleezy]

Pederson shouldn't have won that stage. The peleton slowed down, left a crack in the door, and he rammed himself right through it.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Great stage win for Plapp.
Very entertaining day

 

[Vader]

Can someone explain to me how the Red Bull 1km Sprint is supposed to work?

As far as I can tell, it's just a way of the Giro organisers getting sponsorship money from Red Bull, by giving them naming rights to an intermediate sprint.

The Giro now has 3x intermediate sprints:

• Intermediate Sprint - points in the sprint classification, and time bonuses as well
• Intergiro Sprint - points in the Intergiro Classification (not the Sprint classification), no time bonuses
• Red Bull 1km Sprint - points in the Red Bull Sprint competition (not the Sprint classification), but with time bonuses

What I really don't understand is the 1km part of it. I get that there's a sprint point at the end of the 1km - but is there any significance whatsoever for the 1km itself? I don't believe it's a timed competition, with the fastest rider over that 1km claiming the points. If they'd just called it the Red Bull Intermediate Sprint, then I think I'd understand it. Maybe calling it the Red Bull Kilometre Sprint has just confused me, because there's nothing special about the 1km preceding the sprint itself?

The Intergiro Sprint is a way of rewarding riders for getting into repeated breakaways, which usually end in failure. These riders animate the race but rarely get rewarded at the finish line, and the Intergiro is a way of repaying their efforts. It makes sense, and I quite like the concept. But when it comes to the RB1K, nothing makes sense...

 

[eth-dog]

Can someone explain to me how the Red Bull 1km Sprint is supposed to work?

As far as I can tell, it's just a way of the Giro organisers getting sponsorship money from Red Bull, by giving them naming rights to an intermediate sprint.

The Giro now has 3x intermediate sprints:

• Intermediate Sprint - points in the sprint classification, and time bonuses as well
• Intergiro Sprint - points in the Intergiro Classification (not the Sprint classification), no time bonuses
• Red Bull 1km Sprint - points in the Red Bull Sprint competition (not the Sprint classification), but with time bonuses

What I really don't understand is the 1km part of it. I get that there's a sprint point at the end of the 1km - but is there any significance whatsoever for the 1km itself? I don't believe it's a timed competition, with the fastest rider over that 1km claiming the points. If they'd just called it the Red Bull Intermediate Sprint, then I think I'd understand it. Maybe calling it the Red Bull Kilometre Sprint has just confused me, because there's nothing special about the 1km preceding the sprint itself?

The Intergiro Sprint is a way of rewarding riders for getting into repeated breakaways, which usually end in failure. These riders animate the race but rarely get rewarded at the finish line, and the Intergiro is a way of repaying their efforts. It makes sense, and I quite like the concept. But when it comes to the RB1K, nothing makes sense...

It's a time bonus sprint in essence.

 

[Vader]

It's a time bonus sprint in essence.

But what's the point of the 1K element? This is the bit I don't get.

 

[eth-dog]

But what's the point of the 1K element? This is the bit I don't get.

Eh. They do weird shit in the Giro. I tend to brush it off haha

 

[Orange Agent]

But what's the point of the 1K element? This is the bit I don't get.

Money. Giro organisers always take the biggest cash on offer and Red Bull get 1k of advertising, not that they need it.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Pretty sure it’s 2.5k euros to the winner of red bull km each day. Not sure how that lines up with the other intermediate sprints. A handy little pay packet for lesser known riders