Analysis 50 Game Threshold

[bergholt]

I've really liked the 50 game theory for a while, that somewhere between about 40 and 60 games most players take a big step up, if they're going to.

Here's the years that look about right, and the games the players started the year on:

2012: Armitage (50)
2013: Roberton (37), Steven (51)
2014: Delaney (26), Savage (56), Stanley (39)
2015: Bruce (24), Longer (25), Newnes (47), Weller (48)
2016: Hickey (41), Membrey (13), Ross (37), Kelly (36)
2017: Billings (42), Webster (50)

Seems pretty accurate, most of them started their breakout year between 20 and 50-odd games, Membrey the only odd one out there (and I'm hoping he has a bunch more improvement in him anyway).

So what's the future look like from this point of view? For all the ones who haven't yet broken out, here's the years they're likely to start with about 50 games:

2017: Dunstan
2018: Acres, Gresham, Lonie, Membrey, Sinclair
2019: McCartin, Minchington, Steele, Wright
2020: McKenzie, White
2021: Freeman, Goddard, Long
2022+: others

What's the conclusion here? In 2018, next year, there could legitimately be 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 players have a breakout year.

We've seen enough of Acres, Gresh, Members, Sincs, Steele to be pretty confident they'll all make it, and if it's roughly on schedule that could be next year for each of them. Dunstan and Lonie could join them. Paddy will be better next year, even if it's not quite his breakout year. So from a demographic perspective, 2018 looks like a good year.

But the other less positive point is that it takes a minimum of 3 years of pretty solid footy to get to this sort of breakout level. (For everyone who isn't Joel Selwood, anyway.) After next year, the demographics start to drop off, and there are fewer guys reaching this sort of experience level (especially if Minch and Wright don't make it).

If we pick up a couple of first-round picks this year, at a minimum it's 2021 before they can have a breakout year, more likely 2022 or later. That's a lot of years away. Jack Steven will be 31-32 by then, anyone older is almost guaranteed to be gone.

I reckon that means this is it. If Acres, Gresh, Members, Sincs, Steele, Paddy - those six especially - take a big step up in the next 18-24 months, then we'll be a strong finals team for a few years. If that happens, and we also pick up a Josh Kelly, then I reckon we're a serious flag chance.

But if many of those six guys don't make it for whatever reason, we're very unlikely this time around. 2018 really is a make or break year for this rebuild. And the 2017 trade period is going to be pretty crucial as well.

 

[Brains Trust66]

Interesting

 

[lethalsaints]

Im buying grand final tickets.

 

[freebloke]

Nice... but a big question remains on the 2014 draft selections.

The 2013 draft, showed plenty of early signs and rising star nominations.

2014 draft:-

McCartin - question marks re concussion. Never kicked more than 2 goals in a game due to inaccurate kicking.

Goddard - injured a lot. Question mark on agility.

McKenzie - no signs so far. Single claim to fame was a supposed tackle 2 years ago. Yet, when you watch the video, it is Weller who stops JJ by getting in front, and McKenzie toppling over him uncontrollably. Couple of marks here and there, but little else.

Lonie - has shown the most signs of the lot and played the most games. Is maligned a lot for his tackling and missed shots, but is otherwise a great kick.

So I am not sold if all of them will make it to 50 games at the Saints, particularly McKenzie and possibly Goddard

 

[Glen Buterol]

Mckenzie has been given very limited opportunity at senior level, id personally like to see more of him. Only given two senior games this year, 20 & 17 possession games & averaging 7.5 marks & 3.5 intercepts across the two games. He did look shaky against the Dogs & hasn't been great for Sandy (but who has?!). At this rate he may reach 50 games by 2020, if he's still on the list. I think he's shown enough to get games into but that's just me.

I find it extremely frustrating that teams are pumping games into their young players & backing them in to find touch whereas our model is very old school - earn your keep in the two's & do a Ross Lyon 5 year apprenticeship.

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

I was way more bullish on this group preseason 2017 than i am now.
A lot of the younger players i thought were going to take the next step havnt and theres a good handful that have gone backwards this year.
But i look at Port and think they came up quick but then went down for 3 years before starting to come good again, and i wonder is this whats happening with Richos group now.
They may have similar training methods. Is it overtraining? How do we see our gameplan compared to the last couple years? Has it eveloved? Are the players failing to execute?
I give our season a D so far considering our expectations.

 

[bergholt]

I was way more bullish on this group preseason 2017 than i am now.
A lot of the younger players i thought were going to take the next step havnt

Yeah, sure, but according to my OP that's probably because they haven't actually got enough experience under their belts yet. It might have been an unreasonable expectation. Gresh, for example, was always likely to have second year blues this year, especially because he's small and doesn't have a huge tank yet.

There were three scheduled to take the next step this year: Billings, Dunstan, Webster. Two of them have, Dunstan is the disappointing one for mine. Feels like he should be ready: fourth year of senior footy, 22 years old, 50+ games. But I'd give him one more year, could well be 2018 that he starts averaging 25 possessions and a goal. If that happens it'll be a big leg up.

 

[Phoenix_9]

I was way more bullish on this group preseason 2017 than i am now.
A lot of the younger players i thought were going to take the next step havnt and theres a good handful that have gone backwards this year.
But i look at Port and think they came up quick but then went down for 3 years before starting to come good again, and i wonder is this whats happening with Richos group now.
They may have similar training methods. Is it overtraining? How do we see our gameplan compared to the last couple years? Has it eveloved? Are the players failing to execute?
I give our season a D so far considering our expectations.

You were honestly expecting us to be higher than 8th after round 14?....

 

[t_94]

Always next year

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Our group of players can significantly improve with the addition of two gun mids.
It's a flow on affect.
Look how a so called " washed up player" like Gilbert has been reinvented with the inclusion of Carlisle and Brown. Roberton can play more attacking as well . Both freed up now.
Imagine how good Jack Steven with be if he's only getting the opposition's 3rd best midfielder instead of going head to head with the best or copping a heavy tag.
Seb then going head to head with a side's 4th best. Steele so on and so on.
More depth with great mids make the other good mids play so much better..
Most of our players are at the perfect age/ game bracket to have a couple of ready to go A grade mids slotted straight into the team.
If it happens we could do anything next yr.

 

[Saint Watto]

I've really liked the 50 game theory for a while, that somewhere between about 40 and 60 games most players take a big step up, if they're going to.

That's a great informative post there bergholt.

Your post certainly highlights how crucial this years trade/draft period along with 2018 season is for the club.

I can fully understand people feeling that the whole thing "aint working" at this point of time.

It certainly doesn't help that all our 2014 draft picks are on the sidelines...Paddy,Goddard and McKenzie.

Everyone...club included....would have hoped that all of then would be up and running by now.

 

[freebloke]

Our group of players can significantly improve with the addition of two gun mids.
It's a flow on affect.
Look how a so called " washed up player" like Gilbert has been reinvented with the inclusion of Carlisle and Brown. Roberton can play more attacking as well . Both freed up now.
Imagine how good Jack Steven with be if he's only getting the opposition's 3rd best midfielder instead of going head to head with the best or copping a heavy tag.
Seb then going head to head with a side's 4th best. Steele so on and so on.
More depth with great mids make the other good mids play so much better..
Most of our players are at the perfect age/ game bracket to have a couple of ready to go A grade mids slotted straight into the team.
If it happens we could do anything next yr.

I think this thread is about the younger ones coming up rather than the likes of Gilbert and Steven.

Obviously, adding someone like a Kelly would reduce pressure on any team's bottom 6, Saints or otherwise.

 

[gringo2011]

Mckenzie has been given very limited opportunity at senior level, id personally like to see more of him. Only given two senior games this year, 20 & 17 possession games & averaging 7.5 marks & 3.5 intercepts across the two games. He did look shaky against the Dogs & hasn't been great for Sandy (but who has?!). At this rate he may reach 50 games by 2020, if he's still on the list. I think he's shown enough to get games into but that's just me.

I find it extremely frustrating that teams are pumping games into their young players & backing them in to find touch whereas our model is very old school - earn your keep in the two's & do a Ross Lyon 5 year apprenticeship.

I reckon it's just the club rates some players more. Newnes, Gresham, Dunstan etc all never served any apprenticeship. Mc Kenzie looks a bit off the pace at AFL level and I reckon as much as we would love to see him develop he just hasn't been able to hold a spot. Webster hold up a spot he's probably competing for and Savage is unlucky to sit in-between and not get a game. He has to ply his craft and convince them he is worthy of a chance especially if injury or form lets him in.

 

[Glen Buterol]

I reckon it's just the club rates some players more. Newnes, Gresham, Dunstan etc all never served any apprenticeship. Mc Kenzie looks a bit off the pace at AFL level and I reckon as much as we would love to see him develop he just hasn't been able to hold a spot. Webster hold up a spot he's probably competing for and Savage is unlucky to sit in-between and not get a game. He has to ply his craft and convince them he is worthy of a chance especially if injury or form lets him in.

Getting into the St Kilda line up is more difficult than the Australian cricket team. Richo has about 25 players he consistently picks injuries dictating. You would think we are a top 4 guaranteed finals line up.

Mckenzie has all the tools required to make it as an AFL player. Weapons galore. Run, tank, line breaker, etc. He's everything we need. Just needs to be backed & given ample opportunity.

If Richo opened his eyes he'd see this & make room for him in the team but instead he's goes with his tried & tested even if undeserving. I'd personally have McKenzie in instead of Dunstan for balance if nothing else. I think Dunstan should be competing with Stevens for a spot.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

I think this thread is about the younger ones coming up rather than the likes of Gilbert and Steven.

Obviously, adding someone like a Kelly would reduce pressure on any team's bottom 6, Saints or otherwise.

Yeah but my point is young mids like Seb and Steele will be at the perfect age/game tally to hit top form and have the benefit of the A grade mids spreading the load.
Gilbo and Robbo used as an example on how the right drafting can free up and give good form to players who are perceived as just treading water.

 

[gringo2011]

Getting into the St Kilda line up is more difficult than the Australian cricket team. Richo has about 25 players he consistently picks injuries dictating. You would think we are a top 4 guaranteed finals line up.

Mckenzie has all the tools required to make it as an AFL player. Weapons galore. Run, tank, line breaker, etc. He's everything we need. Just needs to be backed & given ample opportunity.

If Richo opened his eyes he'd see this & make room for him in the team but instead he's goes with his tried & tested even if undeserving. I'd personally have McKenzie in instead of Dunstan for balance if nothing else. I think Dunstan should be competing with Stevens for a spot.

I had pretty high hopes for DMac but his form looks pretty bad at senior level. I'm always worried when he gets the ball. Hopefully he gets confidence up at VFL level and starts to believe in himself. He seems a really shy unassuming kid.

 

[holllywood]

If Jack Steele can have a good preseason and hit the 50 game mark next year (currently on 28), watch out.

His output this year has been really strong and that's not even taking into consideration his age, limited preseason and that this is his first year in a new club/system.

 

[bergholt]

Getting into the St Kilda line up is more difficult than the Australian cricket team. Richo has about 25 players he consistently picks injuries dictating. You would think we are a top 4 guaranteed finals line up.

Last time I checked we'd used the third least players in the comp, behind only Adelaide and Port. I thought that was pretty surprising, considering most of our guys aren't exactly superstars.

 

[saints2066]

Interesting stat, acres average disposals is higher than dunstan...be good if Richo omitted Weller and dunstan and picked some kids...would be good to see freezer in this week..


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