Prediction Aaron Naughton

[BEaston]

Go to afl.com click on the Bulldogs icon (top right of page) once on the Bulldogs site select the Team drop down box
and highlight statistics, 2018 totals are available as well as all individual rounds and even previous seasons.

The same thing can be done for all teams or Jaidyn Stephenson if you get my drift.

I've done this and still have no idea what you're using to rank them. The only one that would make sense would be fantasy points but that doesn't match up with the rankings you've assigned for each round.

Also, fantasy points lol

 

[go you pups]

Sourced directly from the Western Bulldogs website so in essence they are our rankings, now anyone will know that match day
rankings reflect poorly at times on KPD's and don't paint a picture of their overall impact on games.

Lets have a look at our other draftee Ed Richards and his year.
Round 2- Ranking 18th
Round 3- Ranking 12th
Round 4- Ranking 20th
Round 5- Ranking 13th
Round 6- Ranking 11th
Round 7- Ranking 16th
Round 8- Ranking 14th
Round 9- Ranking 18th
Round 10- Ranking 5th
Round 11- Ranking 14th
Round 13- Ranking 14th
Round 14- Ranking 18th
Round 15- Ranking 19th
Round 16- Ranking 14th
Round 17- Ranking 15th
Round 18- Ranking 20th
Round 19- Ranking 21st
Round 20- Ranking 21st
Round 21- Ranking 12th
Round 22- Ranking 12th
Round 23- Ranking 19th

Yet another outstanding first year performance from a player, the discrepancy in their B&F finish could be as
simple as the perceived positional impact they had as observed by the coaching group. I would hazard a
guess that the two games Richards kicked three goals in as a forward were ranked fairly highly.

That's a load of crap

Richards was great for us against Norf and Geelong in consecutive weeks and probably in our best both weeks, yet only 18th and 19th here

Edit and he was one of our best against Port too, had that massive second quarter

Whatever you're using is farcical

 

[timtamWB]

Go to afl.com click on the Bulldogs icon (top right of page) once on the Bulldogs site select the Team drop down box
and highlight statistics, 2018 totals are available as well as all individual rounds and even previous seasons.

The same thing can be done for all teams or Jaidyn Stephenson if you get my drift.

So you're using AFL fantasy points to rank a defender? Where players like Morris are routinely bottom 5?

Seriously what is your point in posting these? They mean less than nothing when it comes to defenders.

 

[dogwatch]

The more salient point is that the club's coaches have ranked him fourth best player at the club over the whole year.

Just dwell on that for a moment. Not bad for an 18yo (yes he's still only 18). A 300 game player in the making.

 

[Yojimbo]

The more salient point is that the club's coaches have ranked him fourth best player at the club over the whole year.

Just dwell on that for a moment. Not bad for an 18yo (yes he's still only 18). A 300 game player in the making.

I did say that, but people just see what they want to see in reality, The Brownlow Medal is an umpires award,
The MVP is a peer driven award, The Coaches award is a head coach driven award, and Club B&F's are a
collective vote by a group of football department people. The newspaper and other media awards are
similarly driven by the biases and opinions of those people. Both Naughton and Richards had fantastic
first years, Naughton was ranked higher by our coaching group because of the difficulty of playing KPD
at that age even though the raw numbers don't back that up. I had both Mark Blicavs and Dylan Grimes
in my All Australian team because they can defend not because of their AFL fantasy numbers.

 

[Yojimbo]

So you're using AFL fantasy points to rank a defender? Where players like Morris are routinely bottom 5?

Seriously what is your point in posting these? They mean less than nothing when it comes to defenders.

Two players both in their first years were capable of holding their form and playing the majority of the year, celebrate it.

You can't compare apples with apples unless you go the orchard, fruiterer, supermarket or anywhere else you can
purchase fruit, try comparing other teams even that is flawed because of the draw and different roles week to
week.

 

[timtamWB]

Two players both in their first years were capable of holding their form and playing the majority of the year, celebrate it.

You can't compare apples with apples unless you go the orchard, fruiterer, supermarket or anywhere else you can
purchase fruit, try comparing other teams even that is flawed because of the draw and different roles week to
week.

I said nothing about Naughton or even Richards, we all know that they're long term players, who performed exceptionally well in their first year and are only going to get better.

My point is about fantasy rankings. They are based 100% on stats and have no bias from people, but a statistical bias against defenders. You can't use them to prove a point about Naughton, whether negative or positive, or use them to discredit a media outlet. Because their nature is to favor midfielders who get more possessions and better statistics on paper.

 

[TiAn_]

Aaron Naughton through the looking glass.

Round 1- Ranked 16th
Round 2- Ranked 13th
Round 3- Ranked 15th
Round 4- Ranked 15th
Round 5- Ranked 17th
Round 6- Ranked 18th
Round 7- Ranked 15th
Round 8- Ranked 22nd
Round 14- Ranked 22nd
Round 15- Ranked 21st
Round 16- Ranked 19th
Round 17- Ranked 10th
Round 18- Ranked 22nd
Round 19- Ranked 8th
Round 20- Ranked 16th
Round 21- Ranked 19th
Round 22- Ranked 18th
Round 23- Ranked 10th

B&F = Ranked 4th ? Great year for a first year, but come on.

Naughton routinely took on the oppo best forward, like Buddy & Riewoldt.

Fantasy ranking points are a trash way to judge KPDs.

 

[dogwatch]

I did say that, but people just see what they want to see in reality, The Brownlow Medal is an umpires award,
The MVP is a peer driven award, The Coaches award is a head coach driven award, and Club B&F's are a
collective vote by a group of football department people. The newspaper and other media awards are
similarly driven by the biases and opinions of those people. Both Naughton and Richards had fantastic
first years, Naughton was ranked higher by our coaching group because of the difficulty of playing KPD
at that age even though the raw numbers don't back that up. I had both Mark Blicavs and Dylan Grimes
in my All Australian team because they can defend not because of their AFL fantasy numbers.

Aaron Naughton through the looking glass.
Round 1- Ranked 16th
Round 2- Ranked 13th
...
[etc etc]
Round 23- Ranked 10th
B&F = Ranked 4th ? Great year for a first year, but come on.

Your post certainly read to me like you were disparaging his 4th in the B&F because it didn't tally with his consistently low fantasy rankings in each round of the season.

However you can be inscrutable at times Y-J, so perhaps I'm just seeing what I want to see!

It still looks like that to me but my humble apologies if you meant something else.

 

[Yojimbo]

Your post certainly read to me like you were disparaging his 4th in the B&F because it didn't tally with his consistently low fantasy rankings in each round of the season.

However you can be inscrutable at times Y-J, so perhaps I'm just seeing what I want to see!

It still looks like that to me but my humble apologies if you meant something else.

No need to apologise dog-watch, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and Naughton did an incredible job in the difficult KPD role
for a first year player, but how do you line that up with the years of Dunkley, McLean, Wallis and even Gowers having to deal
with our inside 50 delivery issues. A lot of players like Suckling, Johannisen and Daniel had cameo years for a variety of
reasons, even Crozier and Trengove struggled to find their feet due to injury and adjusting or finding a role. The use of
Lewis Young this year frustrated me as an outsider, but I am sure they had their reasons. I would have loved to see Lewis
given at least as many games as last year as I thought he showed promise, but I guess when you recruit Trengove and
Naughton it can cause balance issues that were resolved towards the end of the year.

 

[dogwatch]

No need to apologise dog-watch, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and Naughton did an incredible job in the difficult KPD role
for a first year player, but how do you line that up with the years of Dunkley, McLean, Wallis and even Gowers having to deal
with our inside 50 delivery issues. A lot of players like Suckling, Johannisen and Daniel had cameo years for a variety of
reasons, even Crozier and Trengove struggled to find their feet due to injury and adjusting or finding a role. The use of
Lewis Young this year frustrated me as an outsider, but I am sure they had their reasons. I would have loved to see Lewis
given at least as many games as last year as I thought he showed promise, but I guess when you recruit Trengove and
Naughton it can cause balance issues that were resolved towards the end of the year.

I wouldn't have had Naughton fourth myself but then I'm a long way from the coalface. That's why his finishing fourth blew me away. I value the opinion of the coaches a lot more than my own observations which are from watching TV and the odd live game from the grandstand.

I thought briefly that he might have benefited in the B&F from certain highly ranked players being injured, but we have to remember he played only 18 games himself (due to missing a few with an ankle injury).

 

[Proffessor]

Naughton had an excellent first season at AFL level and looks to have a great future ahead of him.

However his 4th placing in the B and F, amongst other strange results in that count, raises serious questions about the people voting in that award.

Consistent with some ridiculous match committee decisions this year, especially early in the season. I think this B and F result it is so wildly out of kilter that the judgement and integrity of the people voting should be seriously questioned.

 

[BEaston]

haha, yeah you know better than them for sure.

 

[Yojimbo]

I wouldn't have had Naughton fourth myself but then I'm a long way from the coalface. That's why his finishing fourth blew me away. I value the opinion of the coaches a lot more than my own observations which are from watching TV and the odd live game from the grandstand.

I thought briefly that he might have benefited in the B&F from certain highly ranked players being injured, but we have to remember he played only 18 games himself (due to missing a few with an ankle injury).

I think dog-watch the ultimate judges of a players value are the fans and the award called "THE CHING" which is expertly run
by a genius, now I know that Naughton was in fact FIFTH in the rankings for the Ching award in the PUPS section which is for
players under 21 at the start of the year. Naughton did not feature very highly in the senior Ching even though the fans did
get the boxed trifecta for the top three. Now I know us fans can be biased in our voting through our biased views of players
Bont = God, Suckling = Whipping Boy etc, but surely our coaches could not have similar bias, surely.

 

[Proffessor]

haha, yeah you know better than them for sure.

Well two thirds of AFL clubs also knew better than them this year so no great feat really.

 

[Byron Street]

I think dog-watch the ultimate judges of a players value are the fans and the award called "THE CHING" which is expertly run
by a genius, now I know that Naughton was in fact FIFTH in the rankings for the Ching award in the PUPS section which is for
players under 21 at the start of the year. Naughton did not feature very highly in the senior Ching even though the fans did
get the boxed trifecta for the top three. Now I know us fans can be biased in our voting through our biased views of players
Bont = God, Suckling = Whipping Boy etc, but surely our coaches could not have similar bias, surely.

Naughton will become a champion key position player. His first year in the AFL was outstanding for such a young player. But, his coming 4th in the club's best-and-fairest for 2018 is ridiculous -- just ask the many keen supporters who gave CHING votes. Like most CHING voters, I watched every game, and really appreciated Aaron's work. But, it's too easy to say that those who gave B & F votes know much better than CHING voters.

In particular, I worry about how McLean would react to his position in the voting. McLean is becoming a real gun, and we can't afford to offend him unnecessarily.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Naughton will become a champion key position player. His first year in the AFL was outstanding for such a young player. But, his coming 4th in the club's best-and-fairest for 2018 is ridiculous -- just ask the many keen supporters who gave CHING votes. Like most CHING voters, I watched every game, and really appreciated Aaron's work. But, it's too easy to say that those who gave B & F votes know much better than CHING voters.

In particular, I worry about how McLean would react to his position in the voting. McLean is becoming a real gun, and we can't afford to offend him unnecessarily.

It’s the voting system at issue. Pretty sure we still do it by sector on the field (with the relevant coach giving their players votes) which is why JJ does so well too.

It should be a significantly different system.

 

[TiAn_]

It’s the voting system at issue. Pretty sure we still do it by sector on the field (with the relevant coach giving their players votes) which is why JJ does so well too.

It should be a significantly different system.

That’s such a dumb system.

 

[bobs head soup]

It’s the voting system at issue. Pretty sure we still do it by sector on the field (with the relevant coach giving their players votes) which is why JJ does so well too.

It should be a significantly different system.

Pretty sure there are 5 coaches who give every player a score of 0 to 5 every match

Naughton scored highly because he consistently played his role very well.

To accredit his success to simply being a backman is a bit disrespectful for mine. Most of the top 10 and winners are mids. His year for an 18yo kpd was outstanding.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Pretty sure there are 5 coaches who give every player a score of 0 to 5 every match

Naughton scored highly because he consistently played his role very well.

To accredit his success to simply being a backman is a bit disrespectful for mine. Most of the top 10 and winners are mids. His year for an 18yo kpd was outstanding.

I’m not denying he is outstanding, but (someone please correct if wrong and this has changed) but some of those coaches vote on the players who are in their part of the field (I.e.defensive coach votes on defenders, forwards coach on forwards and so on). Correspondingly, you get players getting votes who wouldn’t if these were simply votes for the whole team.

Pointing that out isn’t at all disrespectful- hawthorn do this and this is why Gibson was bnf in two flag years.

Is it the right approach? I don’t know.

 

[bobs head soup]

I’m not denying he is outstanding, but (someone please correct if wrong and this has changed) but some of those coaches vote on the players who are in their part of the field (I.e.defensive coach votes on defenders, forwards coach on forwards and so on). Correspondingly, you get players getting votes who wouldn’t if these were simply votes for the whole team.

Pointing that out isn’t at all disrespectful- hawthorn do this and this is why Gibson was bnf in two flag years.

Is it the right approach? I don’t know.

As I read the system, there are 5 coaches who vote on all players on the ground.

Defenders and role players do better in club b&fs than in media awards as the voting formats tend to be that all players who perform solidly get some votes, as opposed to the few outstanding players on the field only getting votes.

 

[Golden_6]

As I read the system, there are 5 coaches who vote on all players on the ground.

Defenders and role players do better in club b&fs than in media awards as the voting formats tend to be that all players who perform solidly get some votes, as opposed to the few outstanding players on the field only getting votes.

I’m sceptical that the system that the AFL noted that we use, is actually the one that the club uses. For example, Macrae played 18 full games (minus injury and injury affected games) and received 190 votes out of a possible 450 (18 games x 25 votes). That’s suggesting Macrae averaged 10-11 votes per game out of 25 each week. Considering how brilliant he was, I’d be very surprised if that was actually the system we use.

 

[bobs head soup]

I’m sceptical that the system that the AFL noted that we use, is actually the one that the club uses. For example, Macrae played 18 full games (minus injury and injury affected games) and received 190 votes out of a possible 450 (18 games x 25 votes). That’s suggesting Macrae averaged 10-11 votes per game out of 25 each week. Considering how brilliant he was, I’d be very surprised if that was actually the system we use.

I was curious about that too. It depends on how votes are evaluated . Eg, only players who were deemed very good in their given role get one vote, excellent 2 votes and only outstanding players get 3 or more.

 

[BEaston]

Well two thirds of AFL clubs also knew better than them this year so no great feat really.

Holy strawman!

 

[TempletonTheRat]

I’m sceptical that the system that the AFL noted that we use, is actually the one that the club uses. For example, Macrae played 18 full games (minus injury and injury affected games) and received 190 votes out of a possible 450 (18 games x 25 votes). That’s suggesting Macrae averaged 10-11 votes per game out of 25 each week. Considering how brilliant he was, I’d be very surprised if that was actually the system we use.

I was too. The Essendon system was written as being the same as ours yet their top vote getters were double the points of our top vote getters. With the voting being so different I can only presume that our systems are actually different. The Essendon votes v system makes much more sense than ours.