Adelaide Crows - Stats, Data, Trends & Observations

[Rogue77]

Starting a thread on Adelaide crows stats, data, trends and observations

Feel free to contribute if you wish

This information is meant to invite more discussion and analysis, and to be taken into consideration in addition to the 'eye test' and observations from watching the game. It's not intended as gospel, or the be all and end all.

Going to start off the thread by going back to last season (as it's still recent enough to be relevant), and will work my way forward to this season

...

2025 Season

Adelaide:
The Good

• Had the best defensive profile of all teams in the competition through to round 19
• Up to round 5 conceding 92 points a game
• Post round 5 through to round 19 conceding 62 points a game (ranked #1 in 4 major defensive stats)
• Only 2 teams in recent history conceded fewer points than that in a 4 or 5 months period across the season
• Worrell and Keane were the #1 and #2 interceptors in the competition
• Adelaide team as a collective involved in 156 1 on 1 marking contests, and we were outworked 14 times in those 1 on 1

The Question Marks

• Of the 7 teams teams that challenged Adelaide in a straight/direct line to goal (not wide) through to round 19, 5 beat them. One of the teams that lost was Brisbane, who if they kicked to expectation, likely should have beaten Adelaide. The other team who lost was West Coast (a bottom ranked team)
• These teams went long and direct at Adelaide - they won their 1 on 1's against Adelaide ahead of the football

Observations

• Adelaide appeared to defend well in 1 on 1's where the system had time to set up and hold up behind the footy, or teammates could get back, support, and help. On the other hand, teams had wins when Adelaide had less time to set up
• This weakness was apparent/exposed heading into finals (and across the season). It wasn't something that was exposed during finals. This may suggest Adelaide was more vulnerable to exploitation heading into finals that some thought (if teams were prepared to go direct at them and had the ability to win these 1 on 1's)

Source/s:

 

[Rogue77]

2025 Season

Adelaide. Heading into Finals post round 23:

The Good

• Best defensive profile since Melbourne in 2021 (across a 10 year period)
• Post clearance (once the ball leaves the stoppage) is 65% of the game. Adelaide is the best team at winning this contest
• Adelaide generally ranked good at defence, contested wins, and efficiency inside 50 (including winning forward 50 stoppages)
• Izak Rankine is the 3rd best forward 50 player in the comp (in terms of winning stoppages and scoring), and the second highest rated player overall in champion data rankings behind TT on the Crows

The Bad

• Adelaide ranked 17th at moving the ball
• In the last 22 years, moving the ball effectively had been an important part of every premiers' profile. The lowest ranking since Champion data has been around by a premier was Sydney in 2005, who ranked 13th

Observations

• The two finalists in Geelong and Brisbane were some of the best sides in the competition at moving the football. Against the best sides in the competition, you can't do both of the following - 1. Give up inside 50's, and 2. Not move the ball fast and direct yourself
• This only works against lesser sides where you can allow them more inside 50's, defend those inside 50's, and play a lower risk offensive game moving the ball the other way. The exception to this is if good sides kick at goal poorly or use the ball inefficiently inside their f50 in any one particular game they play you.
• With Adelaide relying on winning defensive 1 on 1's, and being above average with effectiveness in winning inside 50's, WITHOUT moving the ball effectively on offence, Rankine (as one of the best forward 50 players in the comp) was critical to our gameplay and winning game style. Not having him for finals should have been the second alarm bell/weakness in our profile heading into finals
• These weaknesses in Adelaide's finals profile were evident before heading into finals - they weren't first exposed during finals

Source/s

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Good read (and thread idea), thank you

 

[Rogue77]

2025 Season

Post Finals Game Against Collingwood:

The Bad

• Max Michalaney played 1 game out of the back 6/7 all season (the best backline in the comp). In this game, he again played out of the backline in the first half. Jamie Elliot was 3rd highest rated player on the ground, and was manned up by Hugh Bond. Bond had been beaten 4 out of 5 times across the season vs Max who had been beaten 3 times.
• Rory Laird had not played in the centre bounce all season. In the 3rd quarter, Collingwood won 7 centre bounces to 2.
• Rankine did not play this game, with the Crows missing out on his forward 50 stoppage winning and scoring impact
• On the season, when teams went long and direct against Adelaide, they were 5 wins, 6 losses. When teams didn't challenge Adelaide long and direct, Adelaide were 13 wins and zero losses. On the season, Collingwood went long and direct against Adelaide, and went 2 wins and 1 loss on the season, with the losing game producing a 71 to 37 inside 50 game (in favour of Collingwood).

Observations

• It was known prior to finals that Adelaide struggled to move the ball all season
• In hindsight, Collingwood played a winning game style against Adelaide for the season, including finals (despite Adelaide's overall regular season record)

Source/s

 

[Rogue77]

2026 Season


Post Round 3 against Geelong:

The Bad

• Geelong outscored Adelaide 68 to 60. If Geelong had kicked to their usual expectation, they should have scored 115 points - producing a 68 to 115 scoreline.
• The inside 50 count was 67 to 45 in favour of Geelong

Observations

• This game had some similarities to the Brisbane vs Adelaide game last year (at home), where if Brisbane had kicked to expectation, they should have heavily outscored Adelaide.
• This game also has some similarities to the Collingwood round 23 game last year, where Collingwood had 71 inside 50's to our 37 but lost the game by 3 points. The major difference in these 2 games was that Geelong was more efficient inside 50 than Collingwood across these two games (55.2% inside 50 efficiency vs 40.5%)

Source/s

AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

AFL - News, Fixtures, Scores & Results - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

 

[Rogue77]

2026 Season

AFL Wide trends after round 4:

Compared to at the same stage of previous seasons:

• Scoring is the highest we've seen (by a couple of points)
• Speed of ball movement is the highest we've seen (by more than 10% but not more than 20%)
• There's been the most total forward 50 entries in 20 years
• The score per inside 50 return is the best for 10 years (suggesting less low quality dump kicks, and more quality)
• Second most marks we've seen for 18 years.
• Pressure is the lowest on record - as a result, it's also the lowest amount of contested possessions that are up for grabs (in 18 years)
• Corridor use is the second lowest on record (teams are instead going laterally and changing the angles)

Observations:

• Moving the ball fast is a key indicator of the successful teams
• Contrary to what some might have previously believed (including myself), teams might not always be going long and direct. They may be willing to chip or switch to a marking player and go lateral more, but then selectively use the corridor and go hard, fast and direct when they identify opportunities to do so. This obviously requires players with good decision making and good skills to execute.

Source/s

 

[Rogue77]

2026 Season

Post Round 4 Against Fremantle

Stats

• TT was only targeted 5 times against Fremantle in the forward 50
• Adelaide had nearly double the forward 50 tackles (and pressure) of Fremantle int he second half (when we made our run)

Observation
- Presuming he's not carrying an injury, does TT need more targets on a game to game basis? This also obviously depends on us getting enough total forward 50 entries to give him the necessary supply.

Source/s

AFL Report Card: One ‘dirty’ failure in 128pt thumping… and four others were lucky to get a pass mark

One ‘dirty’ failure, four lucky to get a pass... and the stunning A+ no one saw coming

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Rogue77]

2026 Season

Player Spotlight - James Borlase

Post Rounds 4 and 5 (against Freo and Carlton)

Against Freo, Borlase had:

• 15 1%'ers. The next highest was Woz with 9 and Muz with 6. For Freo, Cox had 10, and Pearce had 9
• 0 rebound 50's. Comparatively, Woz and Muz both had 8

Against Carlton, Borlase had:

• 16 1%'ers. The next highest was Muz with 10, and Woz with 6. For Carlton, Lewis Young
  33

  Lewis Young

  Age

  27

  Ht

  202cm

  Wt

  99kg

  Pos.

  D/F

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  11.6

  3star

  K

  7.5

  3star

  HB

  4.1

  3star

  M

  4.4

  4star

  T

  1.6

  4star

  MG

  197.9

  3star

  D

  4.0

  1star

  K

  3.0

  1star

  HB

  1.0

  1star

  M

  3.0

  3star

  T

  0.0

  1star

  MG

  26.0

  1star

  D

  14.4

  4star

  K

  8.2

  4star

  HB

  6.2

  4star

  M

  6.4

  5star

  T

  2.0

  4star

  MG

  181.6

  3star

  had 15, and Derksen had 8
• 3 rebound 50's. Milera and Woz both had 7, and Max had 5. For comparison - Muz also had 3

Observations:

• Borlase noticeably played well on Treacy in the first half of the Freo game, and then on Mckay for pretty much the entire game from a contested point of view
• Perhaps obviously though, he didn't get involved in or create defensive 50 drive outside of that.

Sources:

Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle - Box Score - April 3, 2026 - ESPN

Get box score updates on the Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle game.

www.espn.com.au

Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton - Box Score - April 9, 2026 - ESPN

Get box score updates on the Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton game.

www.espn.com.au

 

[Rogue77]

2026 Season

Player Spotlight - Riley Thilthorpe

Post Rounds 4 and 5 (against Freo and Carlton)

Against Freo, TT had:

• 1.0
• But, he had 8 score involvements and 3 goal assists. Both of these were team highs

Against Carlton, TT had:

• 1.4
• But, he had 9 score involvements and 1 goal assist. This was an equal team high in score involvements (alongside Tex)

Observations:

• When we go to TT or he gets the ball, good things (scoring) tend to happen. Should we be going to him inside 50 or getting him around the ball more often where smart to do so?

Sources

Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle - Box Score - April 3, 2026 - ESPN

Get box score updates on the Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle game.

www.espn.com.au

Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton - Box Score - April 9, 2026 - ESPN

Get box score updates on the Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton game.

www.espn.com.au

 

[119others]

nice work mate. some quality in here

very new to big footy? or not your first rodeo? haha

 

[Rogue77]

Player Analysis - Alex Neal Bullen

There's been a few (including myself) who have commented on ANB's performance and output since crossing over to Adelaide from Melbourne starting in the 2025 season

Credit to Golumless for making comment on this to me.

I took a closer look at the numbers at both Melbourne and Adelaide:

Stats - Similarities:

• Player rating for both seasons in ADEL are hovering right around his player rating in his 2021 premiership winning season at MELB
• Goals, goal assists, score involvements - all numbers are similar between time in ADEL and MELB
• Contested and uncontested possession totals and %'s - all numbers similar between time in ADEL and MELB

Stats - Differences:

• ANB played a slightly different role in MELB compared to ADEL. 2021, 22, and 23 he attended close to 1 CBA a game, and 5.2 in 2024 (spending more time in the midfield). In ADEL, ANB is not attending CBAs - he is playing exclusively out of the midfield.
• Pressure acts have decreased - from a range of 21 to 24 in MELB going back to 2021, down to 17.5 to 19 in ADEL
• Tackles have slightly decreased - from a range of 4.5 to 5 in MELB going back to 2021, down to 2.1 to 4.1 in ADEL

Stats - A Bit Of Both (Some Similarities, and some Differences)
- Disposals - ANB's 2025 season in ADEL was similar to his seasons in MELB for total disposals, as well as categories like disposal efficiency, metres gained, and clangers and turnovers. However, his 2026 season so far has seen a decrease in disposal efficiency (by 7 to 10%), and an increase in clangers (by almost 2 a game) as well as metres gained (by about 70 metres per game).

Observations:

• At least when looking at the stats, ANB's first season in Adelaide appears to have been largely similar in terms of performance/output compared to his time in Melbourne.
• His 2026 season so far has also been similar, with a a dip in some of his disposal effectiveness. But, he still has a significant number of games to go to change those averages.

Source/s

AFL Player Profile

AFL Player Profile

www.wheeloratings.com