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Adelaide Crows - Stats, Data, Trends & Observations

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Starting a thread on Adelaide crows stats, data, trends and observations

Feel free to contribute if you wish

This information is meant to invite more discussion and analysis, and to be taken into consideration in addition to the 'eye test' and observations from watching the game. It's not intended as gospel, or the be all and end all.

Going to start off the thread by going back to last season (as it's still recent enough to be relevant), and will work my way forward to this season

...

2025 Season

Adelaide:
The Good
  • Had the best defensive profile of all teams in the competition through to round 19
  • Up to round 5 conceding 92 points a game
  • Post round 5 through to round 19 conceding 62 points a game (ranked #1 in 4 major defensive stats)
  • Only 2 teams in recent history conceded fewer points than that in a 4 or 5 months period across the season
  • Worrell and Keane were the #1 and #2 interceptors in the competition
  • Adelaide team as a collective involved in 156 1 on 1 marking contests, and we were outworked 14 times in those 1 on 1

The Question Marks
  • Of the 7 teams teams that challenged Adelaide in a straight/direct line to goal (not wide) through to round 19, 5 beat them. One of the teams that lost was Brisbane, who if they kicked to expectation, likely should have beaten Adelaide. The other team who lost was West Coast (a bottom ranked team)
  • These teams went long and direct at Adelaide - they won their 1 on 1's against Adelaide ahead of the football

Observations
  • Adelaide appeared to defend well in 1 on 1's where the system had time to set up and hold up behind the footy, or teammates could get back, support, and help. On the other hand, teams had wins when Adelaide had less time to set up
  • This weakness was apparent/exposed heading into finals (and across the season). It wasn't something that was exposed during finals. This may suggest Adelaide was more vulnerable to exploitation heading into finals that some thought (if teams were prepared to go direct at them and had the ability to win these 1 on 1's)


Source/s:
 
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2025 Season

Adelaide. Heading into Finals post round 23:

The Good
  • Best defensive profile since Melbourne in 2021 (across a 10 year period)
  • Post clearance (once the ball leaves the stoppage) is 65% of the game. Adelaide is the best team at winning this contest
  • Adelaide generally ranked good at defence, contested wins, and efficiency inside 50 (including winning forward 50 stoppages)
  • Izak Rankine is the 3rd best forward 50 player in the comp (in terms of winning stoppages and scoring), and the second highest rated player overall in champion data rankings behind TT on the Crows

The Bad
  • Adelaide ranked 17th at moving the ball
  • In the last 22 years, moving the ball effectively had been an important part of every premiers' profile. The lowest ranking since Champion data has been around by a premier was Sydney in 2005, who ranked 13th

Observations
  • The two finalists in Geelong and Brisbane were some of the best sides in the competition at moving the football. Against the best sides in the competition, you can't do both of the following - 1. Give up inside 50's, and 2. Not move the ball fast and direct yourself
  • This only works against lesser sides where you can allow them more inside 50's, defend those inside 50's, and play a lower risk offensive game moving the ball the other way. The exception to this is if good sides kick at goal poorly or use the ball inefficiently inside their f50 in any one particular game they play you.
  • With Adelaide relying on winning defensive 1 on 1's, and being above average with effectiveness in winning inside 50's, WITHOUT moving the ball effectively on offence, Rankine (as one of the best forward 50 players in the comp) was critical to our gameplay and winning game style. Not having him for finals should have been the second alarm bell/weakness in our profile heading into finals
  • These weaknesses in Adelaide's finals profile were evident before heading into finals - they weren't first exposed during finals

Source/s
 
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2025 Season

Post Finals Game Against Collingwood:

The Bad
  • Max Michalaney played 1 game out of the back 6/7 all season (the best backline in the comp). In this game, he again played out of the backline in the first half. Jamie Elliot was 3rd highest rated player on the ground, and was manned up by Hugh Bond. Bond had been beaten 4 out of 5 times across the season vs Max who had been beaten 3 times.
  • Rory Laird had not played in the centre bounce all season. In the 3rd quarter, Collingwood won 7 centre bounces to 2.
  • Rankine did not play this game, with the Crows missing out on his forward 50 stoppage winning and scoring impact
  • On the season, when teams went long and direct against Adelaide, they were 5 wins, 6 losses. When teams didn't challenge Adelaide long and direct, Adelaide were 13 wins and zero losses. On the season, Collingwood went long and direct against Adelaide, and went 2 wins and 1 loss on the season, with the losing game producing a 71 to 37 inside 50 game (in favour of Collingwood).

Observations
  • It was known prior to finals that Adelaide struggled to move the ball all season
  • In hindsight, Collingwood played a winning game style against Adelaide for the season, including finals (despite Adelaide's overall regular season record)


Source/s
 

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2026 Season


Post Round 3 against Geelong:

The Bad
  • Geelong outscored Adelaide 68 to 60. If Geelong had kicked to their usual expectation, they should have scored 115 points - producing a 68 to 115 scoreline.
  • The inside 50 count was 67 to 45 in favour of Geelong

Observations
  • This game had some similarities to the Brisbane vs Adelaide game last year (at home), where if Brisbane had kicked to expectation, they should have heavily outscored Adelaide.
  • This game also has some similarities to the Collingwood round 23 game last year, where Collingwood had 71 inside 50's to our 37 but lost the game by 3 points. The major difference in these 2 games was that Geelong was more efficient inside 50 than Collingwood across these two games (55.2% inside 50 efficiency vs 40.5%)


Source/s


 
2026 Season

AFL Wide trends after round 4:

Compared to at the same stage of previous seasons:
  • Scoring is the highest we've seen (by a couple of points)
  • Speed of ball movement is the highest we've seen (by more than 10% but not more than 20%)
  • There's been the most total forward 50 entries in 20 years
  • The score per inside 50 return is the best for 10 years (suggesting less low quality dump kicks, and more quality)
  • Second most marks we've seen for 18 years.
  • Pressure is the lowest on record - as a result, it's also the lowest amount of contested possessions that are up for grabs (in 18 years)
  • Corridor use is the second lowest on record (teams are instead going laterally and changing the angles)

Observations:
  • Moving the ball fast is a key indicator of the successful teams
  • Contrary to what some might have previously believed (including myself), teams might not always be going long and direct. They may be willing to chip or switch to a marking player and go lateral more, but then selectively use the corridor and go hard, fast and direct when they identify opportunities to do so. This obviously requires players with good decision making and good skills to execute.

Source/s
 
2026 Season

Post Round 4 Against Fremantle

Stats
  • TT was only targeted 5 times against Fremantle in the forward 50
  • Adelaide had nearly double the forward 50 tackles (and pressure) of Fremantle int he second half (when we made our run)

Observation
- Presuming he's not carrying an injury, does TT need more targets on a game to game basis? This also obviously depends on us getting enough total forward 50 entries to give him the necessary supply.

Source/s

 
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2026 Season

Player Spotlight - James Borlase

Post Rounds 4 and 5 (against Freo and Carlton)

Against Freo, Borlase had:
  • 15 1%'ers. The next highest was Woz with 9 and Muz with 6. For Freo, Cox had 10, and Pearce had 9
  • 0 rebound 50's. Comparatively, Woz and Muz both had 8

Against Carlton, Borlase had:
  • 16 1%'ers. The next highest was Muz with 10, and Woz with 6. For Carlton, Lewis Young had 15, and Derksen had 8
  • 3 rebound 50's. Milera and Woz both had 7, and Max had 5. For comparison - Muz also had 3

Observations:
  • Borlase noticeably played well on Treacy in the first half of the Freo game, and then on Mckay for pretty much the entire game from a contested point of view
  • Perhaps obviously though, he didn't get involved in or create defensive 50 drive outside of that.

Sources:
 
2026 Season

Player Spotlight - Riley Thilthorpe

Post Rounds 4 and 5 (against Freo and Carlton)

Against Freo, TT had:
  • 1.0
  • But, he had 8 score involvements and 3 goal assists. Both of these were team highs

Against Carlton, TT had:
  • 1.4
  • But, he had 9 score involvements and 1 goal assist. This was an equal team high in score involvements (alongside Tex)

Observations:
  • When we go to TT or he gets the ball, good things (scoring) tend to happen. Should we be going to him inside 50 or getting him around the ball more often where smart to do so?

Sources
 
Player Analysis - Alex Neal Bullen

There's been a few (including myself) who have commented on ANB's performance and output since crossing over to Adelaide from Melbourne starting in the 2025 season

Credit to Golumless for making comment on this to me.

I took a closer look at the numbers at both Melbourne and Adelaide:

Stats - Similarities:
  • Player rating for both seasons in ADEL are hovering right around his player rating in his 2021 premiership winning season at MELB
  • Goals, goal assists, score involvements - all numbers are similar between time in ADEL and MELB
  • Contested and uncontested possession totals and %'s - all numbers similar between time in ADEL and MELB

Stats - Differences:
  • ANB played a slightly different role in MELB compared to ADEL. 2021, 22, and 23 he attended close to 1 CBA a game, and 5.2 in 2024 (spending more time in the midfield). In ADEL, ANB is not attending CBAs - he is playing exclusively outside of the midfield.
  • Pressure acts have decreased - from a range of 21 to 24 in MELB going back to 2021, down to 17.5 to 19 in ADEL
  • Tackles have slightly decreased - from a range of 4.5 to 5 in MELB going back to 2021, down to 2.1 to 4.1 in ADEL

Stats - A Bit Of Both (Some Similarities, and some Differences)
- Disposals - ANB's 2025 season in ADEL was similar to his seasons in MELB for total disposals, as well as categories like disposal efficiency, metres gained, and clangers and turnovers. However, his 2026 season so far has seen a decrease in disposal efficiency (by 7 to 10%), and an increase in clangers (up by almost 2 a game) as well as metres gained (by about 70 metres per game).

Observations:
  • At least when looking at the stats, ANB's first season in Adelaide appears to have been largely similar in terms of performance/output compared to his time in Melbourne.
  • His 2026 season so far has also been similar, with a a dip in some of his disposal effectiveness. But, he still has a significant number of games to go to change those averages.

Source/s
 
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2026 Season

Post Round 4 Against Fremantle

Stats
  • TT was only targeted 5 times against Fremantle in the forward 50
  • Adelaide had nearly double the forward 50 tackles (and pressure) of Fremantle int he second half (when we made our run)

Observation
- Presuming he's not carrying an injury, does TT need more targets on a game to game basis? This also obviously depends on us getting enough total forward 50 entries to give him the necessary supply.

Source/s



Really like this thread, great info.

Question though, if we only targeted Thilly 5 times, who were we targetting?

And does that translate through the whole season so far (not targeting him)
 
Really like this thread, great info.

Question though, if we only targeted Thilly 5 times, who were we targetting?

And does that translate through the whole season so far (not targeting him)
From what i see we target a spot about 20-30 m out from goal with a long bomb
 
Peatling outperforming Berry is vindication for my opinion that Peatling is our best pure inside midfielder
The AFL player ratings are really weird, Borlase is better than Butts and Jones is twice as good as Bond.

The stats say that Berry is slightly better inside and out but its pretty close.
 
Player Analysis - Jordan Dawson

Several of us have commented on where Jordy might be best played

We now have some recent data that might provide us some clues

Stats:
  • Jordy is a 2 x AA midfielder in 2 of the last 3 seasons, but in Champion Data rankings, he is the 37th rated mid in the comp in that time
  • When he first came to ADEL from SYD, he was a top 10 player in the comp (in his time at SYD) - a lot of that time he played across half back
  • In his first season at ADEL, he played mostly half back, and he was a top 15 player in the comp
  • In the last 3 years, he has played over 1000 minutes as a forward, and is the 8th best forward in that time


Observations:
  • Jordy is a very good midfielder by AFL standards - as the 37th ranked mid in the comp - he still profiles as a starting mid for many teams (assuming 18 teams have 3 starting mids - 54 starting spots up for grabs across the comp)
  • However, his best seasons to date have come at half back, and recently he has been a better rated forward than mid. Although he is a very good mid (top 40), he is an elite (top 10) half back or forward.
  • ADEL are obviously limited at the moment by the alternative mid options outside of Jordy that have exposed and proven playing time at AFL level in the midfield. We understand some of this is due to coaching decisions. Rash has obviously performed when given the opportunity this season. Curtin is unproven in the mids at this stage, but everyone understands he could be another solution in there once he gets time in there when we gets back from injury (and is the most like for like Dawson substitute given their size). We have other options we could explore if we play them or when they are ready - Draper, Edwards, Pedlar, Milk, etc. The thing you obviously need to make sure of is that the net impact/effect of whoever you're replacing Jordy with in the mid is greater when you combine that person's mid impact, plus Jordy's impact at half back or forward (compared to Jordy playing mostly mid time). A potential way to try to measure this - what is our avg. net score when Jordy switches positions (especially against the good teams)? Or, say Curtin permanently switches to being a mid - where does he rank as a mid vs where he ranked as a wing?
  • It may not make sense to remove Jordy from the midfield completely - it makes sense to still give him some minutes in there if and when needed. However, based on the data, time that Jordy plays away from half back or forward means that we are removing an ELITE player from either one of those parts of the ground. He has the most impact on the game in those positions. Therefore, the data may suggest that half back and/or forward should become his new primary playing spots.
  • The beauty of Jordy is how versatile he is. If we are playing a side that is restricting our forward 50 entries and forward supply - you have shift him to half back. If we are getting more supply - you shift him forward. If we perhaps need another option in the midfield or we are getting spanked in clearances - you can inject him in there.
  • Jordy is 29 - moving him out of the mid more permanently may reduce some of the wear and tear he faces going forward.
  • Playing Jordy specifically in the forward line takes more pressure of TT and Fog, and also allows you to rotate him with Curtin (who has also showed he can play forward, as well as on the wing)

Source/s
 
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Adelaide Crows Ball Movement - Data/Stats, & Analysis

We have established that Adelaide had the top defensive profile in the comp last season (especially winning defensive 1 on 1's behind the footy), but we've struggled with ball movement going the other way (dating back to last season).

Below we look at:
  • The main problems with our ball movement
  • How we might aim to move the ball

What Are The Main Problems With Adelaide's Ball Movement?

1. Moving the ball from D50 to F50

From ESPN:
"Going back to last year, [the Crows] ranked 13th for going from defensive 50 to inside 50, and 13th for going from defensive midfield to inside 50. Of the top nine teams ... the eight other teams all ranked in the top eight of that stat. Then you have Adelaide dropping down to 13th."

[in 2026] Moving from defensive 50 to inside 50, they're 15th.

2. Ability to turn all starting possession chains into a score (regardless of where you start with the ball)

From ESPN:
"If you start with the ball, how well do you turn your chain into a score? They were eighth last year. This year, they're 17th for scoring from all their chains ..."

3. Ability to win possession of the football and turn it into a score against the top teams

From Champion Data - Adelaide ranked bottom 4 in doing this against the top teams in the comp last season

4. Having a high kick to handball ratio, and potentially being more predictable with this game style as opposed to creating more unpredictability and 'chaos' through the short game and handball game
... Adelaide's high kick-to-handball ratio [is] another issue, as the successful teams are gaining metres by handball.

From ESPN:
"They still kick it more than anyone, and they average the fewest metres gained by hand of any team ... they haven't embraced the handball and chaos game."

How We Might Aim To Move The Ball

2026 Season Example:
Champion Data suggests that the Crows already have a working example of how they might look to move the ball in 2026
The Round 2 Western Bulldogs game saw the Crows in quarters 1 and 3:
  • Score 16 times (8.8)
  • Score and convert inside 50 at over 50%
  • Score 5 goals off the back of their ball movement game

This was very different to how the Crows moved the ball last season
This example of our ball movement had similarities to the Brisbane model of ball movement
This model of ball movement isn't about getting the ball forward as fast as possible, or always having to go up the corridor/centre of the ground.
But rather, it involves:
  • Generally fast ball movement. This can be in any direction - which can include short, lateral, and generally working the ball through traffic or forward up the ground
  • The ball always being in motion as opposed to players hanging onto the ball and being more stagnant. This involves more of a 'get an go' approach, as opposed to getting the ball and waiting
  • The willingness to handball more and create through traffic and 'chaos' at times

The above obviously relies on things such as having players with good decision making, skills, and other traits like speed.
It also obviously involves a promotion of this attitude and game style by the coaching staff.
But, the Crows have shown they can do it for short periods. Whether or not they can do it for a full game or season is TBA.


Source/s


 
Peatling outperforming Berry is vindication for my opinion that Peatling is our best pure inside midfielder
I like Peatling but he really needs to be better at keeping his feet.

He is Richard Douglas areas for the amount of time he spends lying down on the grass.
 

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Here's the best Crows players this season so far according to the Wheelo player ratings (which may be taken from the CD ratings - not sure):

View attachment 2581123

View attachment 2581130

Uses AFL player ratings which is a stripped down (and easily available) version of CD rankings. Main thing to note is it really punishes poor ball use in its ratings.
 
Adelaide Crows Ball Movement - Data/Stats, & Analysis

We have established that Adelaide had the top defensive profile in the comp last season (especially winning defensive 1 on 1's behind the footy), but we've struggled with ball movement going the other way (dating back to last season).

Below we look at:
  • The main problems with our ball movement
  • How we might aim to move the ball

What Are The Main Problems With Adelaide's Ball Movement?

1. Moving the ball from D50 to F50

From ESPN:
"Going back to last year, [the Crows] ranked 13th for going from defensive 50 to inside 50, and 13th for going from defensive midfield to inside 50. Of the top nine teams ... the eight other teams all ranked in the top eight of that stat. Then you have Adelaide dropping down to 13th."

[in 2026] Moving from defensive 50 to inside 50, they're 15th.

2. Ability to turn all starting possession chains into a score (regardless of where you start with the ball)

From ESPN:
"If you start with the ball, how well do you turn your chain into a score? They were eighth last year. This year, they're 17th for scoring from all their chains ..."

3. Ability to win possession of the football and turn it into a score against the top teams

From Champion Data - Adelaide ranked bottom 4 in doing this against the top teams in the comp last season

4. Having a high kick to handball ratio, and potentially being more predictable with this game style as opposed to creating more unpredictability and 'chaos' through the short game and handball game
... Adelaide's high kick-to-handball ratio [is] another issue, as the successful teams are gaining metres by handball.

From ESPN:
"They still kick it more than anyone, and they average the fewest metres gained by hand of any team ... they haven't embraced the handball and chaos game."

How We Might Aim To Move The Ball

2026 Season Example:
Champion Data suggests that the Crows already have a working example of how they might look to move the ball in 2026
The Round 2 Western Bulldogs game saw the Crows in quarters 1 and 3:
  • Score 16 times (8.8)
  • Score and convert inside 50 at over 50%
  • Score 5 goals off the back of their ball movement game

This was very different to how the Crows moved the ball last season
This example of our ball movement had similarities to the Brisbane model of ball movement
This model of ball movement isn't about getting the ball forward as fast as possible, or always having to go up the corridor/centre of the ground.
But rather, it involves:
  • Generally fast ball movement. This can be in any direction - which can include short, lateral, and generally working the ball through traffic or forward up the ground
  • The ball always being in motion as opposed to players hanging onto the ball and being more stagnant. This involves more of a 'get an go' approach, as opposed to getting the ball and waiting
  • The willingness to handball more and create through traffic and 'chaos' at times

The above obviously relies on things such as having players with good decision making, skills, and other traits like speed.
It also obviously involves a promotion of this attitude and game style by the coaching staff.
But, the Crows have shown they can do it for short periods. Whether or not they can do it for a full game or season is TBA.


Source/s



Additional Notes

  • Appears as though Adelaide's 'best' ball movement game at the moment from a real scoring perspective (i.e. what we are doing when we are scoring the most at the moment) is to go long and direct, with TT being the first option target for this type of game style. From what I have observed personally, TT's score involvement and scoring assist numbers also back this up.
  • It's possible this type of ball movement game may still be inferior to a Brisbane type game model that is less predictable and involves the ball being in motion, lateral kicks to marking options etc., and working the ball up the ground that way. Obviously though, this type of game model relies on skilful good decision making players behind the ball, and may not always be a fit for all teams.

Source/s

1.
 
After watching a poor Western Bulldogs tonight, so many times they have got hold of a Geelong player only for them to get an arm free and handball away during a tackle.

Its something that is evident with Crows. Its why the club should be investing in a full time tackling and grappling coach. You stop the Cats breaking tackles they are half the side, same with most other teams.

It just isn't focused on enough. Our players don't have broken tackles but they also don't get enough tackle to HTB
 
The problem with these stats is we can absolutely move the ball quick and precise regularly when we go into attacking mode. We are one of the best and most dangerous sides in the competition. Which makes you wonder what the hell is Nicks thinking running that pathetic slow methodical ball movement.
 
The problem with these stats is we can absolutely move the ball quick and precise regularly when we go into attacking mode. We are one of the best and most dangerous sides in the competition. Which makes you wonder what the hell is Nicks thinking running that pathetic slow methodical ball movement.

If you look at every period where we go on those runs (this year in particular, though it certainly showed up last year), they come from us smacking teams up at the coalface (i.e. we go on a run of winning clearances and it lets us score heavily). Once teams fight off that momentum and the game evens up, we lose that avenue of scoring because we don't have the combative inside midfielders to be a heavy weight in this area. Though it has some "light at the end of the tunnel" with Rachele breakout and Curtin eventual return, however, against the best teams our only reliable scoring method is through clearance.

The problem (and this is in-part Nicks fault but its also a personnel issue) is that half back line. There aren't enough creative and damaging ball users in our defense and we continuously refuse to move guys such as Dawson (which is fair enough), and Cook (which is a blunder) who potentially have the game to be an elite half back flanker there. Though in the last two-three weeks, we've pretty much reverted to what we were doing last year where it's just long down-the-line football, but again, that feeds into the lack of gun half back flankers seeing it is an admission that we can't move the ball through this sector in a reliable manner. At least Thilthorpe is a full time key forward now.

Until we hit on an A-grader half back to anchor that sector, these problems with moving the ball through defensive-midfield sector are going to persist. Hinge had a small period in 2023 where he became this (alongside with Dawson playing as a defensive-mid that year) which was a way to counteract it. However, Dawson is really bloody good everywhere, and that is proving to be a career-year for Hinge.
 
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If you look at every period where we go on those runs (this year in particular, though it certainly showed up last year), they come from us smacking teams up at the coalface (i.e. we go on a run of winning clearances and it lets us score heavily). Once teams fight off that momentum and the game evens up, we lose that avenue of scoring because we don't have the combative inside midfielders to be a heavy weight in this area. Though it has some "light at the end of the tunnel" with Rachele breakout and Curtin eventual return, however, against the best teams our only reliable scoring method is through clearance.

The problem (and this is in-part Nicks fault but its also a personnel issue) is that half back line. There aren't enough creative and damaging ball users in our defense and we continuously refuse to move guys such as Dawson (which is fair enough), and Cook (which is a blunder) who potentially have the game to be an elite half back flanker there. Though in the last two-three weeks, we've pretty much reverted to what we were doing last year where it's just long down-the-line football, but again, that feeds into the lack of gun half back flankers seeing it is an admission that we can't move the ball through this sector in a reliable manner. At least Thilthorpe is a full time key forward now.

Until we hit on an A-grader half back to anchor that sector, these problems with moving the ball through defensive-midfield sector are going to persist. Hinge had a small period in 2023 where he became this (alongside with Dawson playing as a defensive-mid that year) which was a way to counteract it. However, Dawson is really bloody good everywhere, and that is proving to be a career-year for Hinge.
Worth noting - it's not an absolute necessity to win clearances

Geelong smacked WBD last night, and lost total clearances as well as stoppage clearances

Significant difference in these stats in Geelong favour:
  • Total disposals
  • Kicks
  • Inside 50's
  • Inside 50 efficiency
  • Marks
  • Turnovers

No matter where you get the ball on the ground (whether that's in the backline, or from a clearance as examples) - what you do with the ball, and how you move it matters - particularly being able to get regular inside 50's (which the Crows have struggled with).

Using Geelong as an example last night - without winning total clearances, they were able to force WBD turnovers, and then carry/run the ball (metres gained) with guys like Smith, Humphries, Holmes, etc. Those guys and other guys also had healthy inside 50 and score involvement numbers too

It would help the Crows if we can do either:
  • Have capacity to get first possession and win clearances
  • Get and move the ball effectively independent of winning clearances - force turnovers, and then run the ball with legs (and handball), or play the kick/mark possession game to get meterage (relies on good ball movement plan, as well as player decision making and skills)

Even if we get Curtin back and we start winning more clearances for example - I would want to see us get better at the ball movement part of our game

Balancing that with having Thilthorpe as a bail out option would really help get us going in the right direction

When I look at our team profile heading into the finals last year, I didn't realise how large that ball movement weakness actually was.


 

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