Game Day AFC DRAFT DAY THREAD

How many additional 2021 picks will we end up with from draft day trades?


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Knightmare

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Yes. Thanks.

You just reminded me in regards to Knightmare rating of McDonald, how did North end up with an A+ if they passed on McDonald.

Again this is not a shot at Knightmare, just curious and I thin personally he got his assessment of our drafting decisions wrong.
North Melbourne I rated for a few reasons.

I flat out love Phillips. Absolutely in their position I'm taking McDonald. But Phillips is worth what was paid for him.

But what I think about in North Melbourne's position is the following, and I could bundle Adelaide into this same basket also, as I do see rebuilding as taking a few years from the current list position.

If you're a team stuck down the bottom for a few years and taking very early picks. There is access more years than not to the very best KPPs. And often when you've got those early picks, those KPPs represent best available value at your picks. So a North Melbourne or Adelaide in theory assuming more years down the bottom don't need to take a KPP with any urgency and can always wait another year, and probably should if there are two similarly rated players.

Seeing McDonald as a top 1-3 on list player, Phillips a top-5 on list player. McDonald is that tier above, but Phillips I still consider a future star. He could be a future captain. An Adelaide and a North Melbourne looking to build from basic, that's what both teams need. He looks the best midfielder in the draft and he's certainly the most immediate. So in their situation, and if Adelaide were to do the same, I wouldn't be as overly harsh as I would with a say Richmond where if they had a pick 1 or 2 and could have had McDonald, I'd be really calling them out on it, as chances are they won't have a chance any time soon at that early draft star KPP as might a team that is likely to have a few more years down the bottom of the ladder. With a Richmond, even though they're great at the moment, they have some seriously good youth and more youth coming through that most football fans won't yet realise are good in the way Balta came through this year and proved he's a star, or a Bolton or Baker. Could Riley Collier-Dawkins be next? Nyuon in a few years? Could Stack or Coleman-Jones come good? Ross? They've got a few.

Beyond the Phillips pick for North Melbourne though, I really like those others taken. Powell? He's another seriously good mid. Lazzaro? Another good mid. Spicer? Fastest in the draft and a real talent? Ford? Good value late and could develop across any line. I felt like across the draft and their number of draft picks, there wasn't one player I felt like they took higher than they should have, so I give them a lot of credit for that, as there aren't many drafts, particularly for a team taking so many selections where I can say - they didn't reach on any of those players picked. And they've actually with each of those picks taken well performed footballers. I really respect their draft and loved what Luff has done. I have to give that credit where it's due. I'm not taking all those same players, or any of those exact players with any of those picks, but I don't dislike any of them at any of those picks either.
 

GrommoT

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...
I did also give Adelaide some slight credit in my grade in bidding on Jamarra, but given he was matched, there isn't too much credit that can be given, as it only had so much impact on the final outcome of Adelaide's night.
Hamish Ogilvie said in an interview our JUH bid was strategic to strip WB of their later bids as they thought WB (and Carlton) were interested in Rowe.
 

Shaz2012

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I actually rate McDonald even the two tiers above Thilthorpe. I've got Jamarra and McDonald in that top tier of top 1-3 on list quality guys. Phillips as that stand alone top-5 on list quality guy in that tier just below. Then I've got Hollands/Thilthorpe/Jones as that next group down from there as players I categorise as top-10 on list quality. I cover the tier list in full in my AFL tier list video on my YouTube. So on McDonald v Thilthorpe, I'm very strongly of the opinion McDonald is the pick. But a draft and how good it is doesn't have to be determined by the success of just one player.

Thilthorpe absolutely is a pick I mark Adelaide down for, and quite sharply, even though I do very much respect and rate Thilthorpe's game and view him as someone who should still in his own right become an excellent footballer. But the other selections for Adelaide though on the other hand I do rate which does move Adelaide's rating into the positive. Pedlar is someone I rate just outside my top-20, but he's someone had I seen more, I could see myself rating around where Adelaide picked him, so I didn't want to put too much weighting into that next selection. But the other picks, that's where the rating becomes very positive. Cook I rate inside my top-15, Berry inside my top-20. Excellent value selections! Rowe? He was worth what was paid and fills a need, so I can respect that pick also.

What if this is a draft where Adelaide took x5 players in the draft and all five become best-22 players? I think there a genuine possibility of that, even if Adelaide missed on that generational key forward. So that's the lens I'm looking at Adelaide's draft through.

I did also give Adelaide some slight credit in my grade in bidding on Jamarra, but given he was matched, there isn't too much credit that can be given, as it only had so much impact on the final outcome of Adelaide's night.
We finally had a chance to win draft night and now this 😂.

Can I ask you if you’ve seen McDonald live? Whenever I get asked that question it’s a definite insult/jab, but mine is not. I genuinely don’t know why McDonald is rated so highly. I mean good, yes. But I don’t see anything extra special like I saw in JUH or like I saw in the King twins.

I found that each of McDs goals in the limited highlights that were available to me were sort of explainable. Nothing special. Although he was playing WAFL, he was mostly beating out another colt who was also playing WAFL. I can’t even think of one highlight where I thought.. yeah that’s special.. Whereas King x2, Luko, Rankine, Blakey, JUH all had multiple moments like that.

I think DGB also had some of those moments where you can see him as the next JGov. But he’s a defender so glad we didn’t spend our pick on him.
 

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I actually rate McDonald even the two tiers above Thilthorpe. I've got Jamarra and McDonald in that top tier of top 1-3 on list quality guys. Phillips as that stand alone top-5 on list quality guy in that tier just below. Then I've got Hollands/Thilthorpe/Jones as that next group down from there as players I categorise as top-10 on list quality. I cover the tier list in full in my AFL tier list video on my YouTube. So on McDonald v Thilthorpe, I'm very strongly of the opinion McDonald is the pick. But a draft and how good it is doesn't have to be determined by the success of just one player.

Thilthorpe absolutely is a pick I mark Adelaide down for, and quite sharply, even though I do very much respect and rate Thilthorpe's game and view him as someone who should still in his own right become an excellent footballer. But the other selections for Adelaide though on the other hand I do rate which does move Adelaide's rating into the positive. Pedlar is someone I rate just outside my top-20, but he's someone had I seen more, I could see myself rating around where Adelaide picked him, so I didn't want to put too much weighting into that next selection. But the other picks, that's where the rating becomes very positive. Cook I rate inside my top-15, Berry inside my top-20. Excellent value selections! Rowe? He was worth what was paid and fills a need, so I can respect that pick also.

What if this is a draft where Adelaide took x5 players in the draft and all five become best-22 players? I think there a genuine possibility of that, even if Adelaide missed on that generational key forward. So that's the lens I'm looking at Adelaide's draft through.

I did also give Adelaide some slight credit in my grade in bidding on Jamarra, but given he was matched, there isn't too much credit that can be given, as it only had so much impact on the final outcome of Adelaide's night.
Regarding you last sentence after view, the Pre Draft tape release by the Adelaide, the Bid on JUH had a huge impact on Adeliades Night, it was designed to remove the Western Bulldogs picks for Rowe,
 

Knightmare

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We finally had a chance to win draft night and now this 😂.

Can I ask you if you’ve seen McDonald live? Whenever I get asked that question it’s a definite insult/jab, but mine is not. I genuinely don’t know why McDonald is rated so highly. I mean good, yes. But I don’t see anything extra special like I saw in JUH or like I saw in the King twins.

I found that each of McDs goals in the limited highlights that were available to me were sort of explainable. Nothing special. Although he was playing WAFL, he was mostly beating out another colt who was also playing WAFL. I can’t even think of one highlight where I thought.. yeah that’s special.. Whereas King x2, Luko, Rankine, Blakey, JUH all had multiple moments like that.

I think DGB also had some of those moments where you can see him as the next JGov. But he’s a defender so glad we didn’t spend our pick on him.
U18 Champs 2019 is when I've seen McDonald live and in the flesh.

Living in Victoria, none of my watching of McDonald this year for obvious reasons is live given he's in the WAFL and there hasn't been any travel opportunities. And this year has certainly been that breakout year for him where he is looking like a completely different player.

My view is McDonald could be better than the King twins. Same talent category where they each could become best 1-3 players on their respective lists, but I wouldn't be surprised to see McDonald become the better player.

The point people miss with McDonald is that he's someone who was physically outmatched every week in the WAFL and he still dominated. Champion Data compared his play as most comparable to Eddie Betts. That's because he's still developing physically and not built like a man. But he's putting on that size and strength rapidly and developed a lot this year.

The other component with McDonald, and he's not that point of difference guy where on attributes he has that one special trick on another level like a say Jamarra where when he goes vertical - he's entirely unstoppable. With a McDonald, he has the all-around game, he has the aerobic capacity. Good overhead but good at ground level. Has the skills etc. But the thing that stands out most to me is the rate of improvement. Dominated to a historic level in the WAFL at League level as a team of the year player and leading their goalkicking most of the year, but his rate of improvement was so rapid that he managed better numbers this year at League level for disposals, marks and goals per game compared to what he did last year in the Colts. That's why he has gone on my draft board from a 20-25 prospect coming into this season to become a genuine 1b to Jamarra as the 1a. McDonald to me is looking like he can reach the standard where he can be in the Nick Riewoldt/Jeremy Cameron class. And with KPPs it's about who they'll be in year 4 in the AFL system, so that rate of development is a big time key - both in terms of football game and height/physical, and when it comes with great performance already, and you're on a winner for a KPP.
 

Knightmare

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Regarding you last sentence after view, the Pre Draft tape release by the Adelaide, the Bid on JUH had a huge impact on Adeliades Night, it was designed to remove the Western Bulldogs picks for Rowe,
A more than understandable reason, even aside from whether Jamarra is viewed as the real best player in the draft or not by the Crows. Rowe at that stage of the draft wasn't quite my #1 rated general forward at that pick, but he's certainly someone where if I wanted the best and most advanced crumber/goalkicking small he's the guy I'd take, if I don't mind some compromise from a forward pressure perspective.

But the point with Rowe is, absolutely in that range he was suitable for selection and he's as I said before, absolutely a good list fit.
 

briztoon

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We finally had a chance to win draft night and now this 😂.

Can I ask you if you’ve seen McDonald live? Whenever I get asked that question it’s a definite insult/jab, but mine is not. I genuinely don’t know why McDonald is rated so highly. I mean good, yes. But I don’t see anything extra special like I saw in JUH or like I saw in the King twins.

I found that each of McDs goals in the limited highlights that were available to me were sort of explainable. Nothing special. Although he was playing WAFL, he was mostly beating out another colt who was also playing WAFL. I can’t even think of one highlight where I thought.. yeah that’s special.. Whereas King x2, Luko, Rankine, Blakey, JUH all had multiple moments like that.

I think DGB also had some of those moments where you can see him as the next JGov. But he’s a defender so glad we didn’t spend our pick on him.
Just want to point out WA had a hard border closure.

No head recruiter saw Logan live this year, except for maybe Fremantle’s and Perth’s.
 

CroCop

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They are not the same type of player. Or do you mean they are both tall = they play the same way?
As forwards they are your mark and kick types , they are not gonna offer the speed or goal kicking nous at ground level and both are pinch hitters in ruck . Defenders run of these types easily when ball hits the ground . As yes I watched Thilthorpe play league for Westies so don’t tell me I’m wrong.
 

Shaz2012

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Just want to point out WA had a hard border closure.

No head recruiter saw Logan live this year, except for maybe Fremantle’s and Perth’s.
As I said, it wasn’t a jab at him. It was a genuine question as to whether KM had seen something that wouldn’t have been caught in the highlights.... because I don’t see what he sees at all. So I was trying to see if there was some context that I was missing. I’m not saying I have a good eye, but I have found that my eye often agreed with KM. For example, based on video highlights, I preferred Bailey Smith to Walsh and I still do. IIRC KM did too and was in the minority. It was a genuine question.
 

Shaz2012

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The point people miss with McDonald is that he's someone who was physically outmatched every week in the WAFL and he still dominated
I guess it comes down to this point. If I agreed with you here, then I would certainly have a different view on McD. I have gone back several times and watched his key highlights and I don’t see this at all. Maybe he did that in moments that weren’t considered his “high”lights though.

I feel that in the 5 min clip, he isn’t outmatched. It’s sometimes a fellow colt he’s standing. Or just bad defending. Rather than clever forward craft. Anyway. Thanks for your reply. Appreciate it.
 

briztoon

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As I said, it wasn’t a jab at him. It was a genuine question as to whether KM had seen something that wouldn’t have been caught in the highlights.... because I don’t see what he sees at all. So I was trying to see if there was some context that I was missing. I’m not saying I have a good eye, but I have found that my eye often agreed with KM. For example, based on video highlights, I preferred Bailey Smith to Walsh and I still do. IIRC KM did too and was in the minority. It was a genuine question.
All good. For what it’s worth (sfa) I said the same on the draft board at the time, when some of his early season highlight videos came out.
 

briztoon

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The point people miss with McDonald is that he's someone who was physically outmatched every week in the WAFL and he still dominated.
What? No he wasn’t. He might have been playing against men, but he wasn’t physically outmatched most weeks.

Part of the reason why I didn’t find his highlights videos that impressive, was he was often bigger and stronger than his defender. Often outbodying them, pushing them under the ball, or pushing them sideways away from the trajectory of the ball, or getting on a lead, taking an uncontested chest mark.

I didn’t see anything close to the athleticism displayed by JUH or the King twins. No extension of the arms out in front, taking the ball at his highest point.

He’ll be a crafty forward, but I’m not sure he ever dominate against the best defenders.

I’m far more worried about the King twins in future years, than I am about McDonald.
 

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briztoon

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Hey Mutineer, not sure you got around to answering my question on draft night about two of our new lads, Harry Sharp and Henry Smith.

As someone who’s probably seen more of them than any Brisbane poster, if you wouldn’t mind, could you pop over to the Brisbane board and give us your opinion of both. Cheers.
 

Knightmare

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What? No he wasn’t. He might have been playing against men, but he wasn’t physically outmatched most weeks.

Part of the reason why I didn’t find his highlights videos that impressive, was he was often bigger and stronger than his defender. Often outbodying them, pushing them under the ball, or pushing them sideways away from the trajectory of the ball, or getting on a lead, taking an uncontested chest mark.

I didn’t see anything close to the athleticism displayed by JUH or the King twins. No extension of the arms out in front, taking the ball at his highest point.

He’ll be a crafty forward, but I’m not sure he ever dominate against the best defenders.

I’m far more worried about the King twins in future years, than I am about McDonald.
Matchup dependent with McDonald in terms of being physically outmatched or otherwise. His bodywork I found good. I've mentioned that in my profiles. But he doesn't have the upper body strength to take advantage of opponents.

The example I keep coming back to that is easiest for people to consider is McDonald v DGB. DGB won that matchup in that one quarter they were matched up and actually won all their 1v1s. McDonald didn't take advantage despite how thin DGB is. That's not his game, and that's not understanding what he does. And similarly talking athleticism is missing the point. He's not an elite speed or endurance athlete. He's an elite endurance athlete though and a good leaper. But he has the all-around forward craft.

Being a great key forward isn't about being an athlete. There are countless ways you can dominate. He'll leap and take marks. He'll burn guys around the ground. He makes the most out of his opportunities in front of goal and can finish and convert set shots. He has good footy smarts. He's good at ground level.

If I'm to compare McDonald to the King's. He's not that athlete, that height or that mark those guys are. But he's covering a lot more ground than them, can do a lot more around the ground, he's a better kick and he's relatively speaking better at ground level. I'd say in a comparison, and same story against Jamarra, he's a better rounded and more complete footballer. It's more so why a say Jamarra I would rate have of McDonald is he has his unstoppable moves - being that guy where if he gets a run and jump at the ball, it's over for everyone. You can't defend him, and it feels the same on the lead and when isolated 1v1 i50. That's what makes him the guy. But then you compare McDonald to Jamarra and look at the flip side. And Jamarra isn't that same aerobic athlete, he's embarrassingly poor by foot by comparison and hasn't shown he can operate outside the forward 50m as Logan can.

I'd contend that shutting down a McDonald will be harder than shutting down the King's. If you have the height/athleticism/size, you can beat them. They're your i50 targets, where if you have an excellent key defender, you can limit them. A McDonald, as with a Riewoldt, if he isn't able to dominate closer to goal, he'll get higher up the ground and get his touches and take his marks and still get involved. He's a different player, but he has the opportunity to be as good, or maybe better, but in very contrasting respects.
 

Tobster

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Matchup dependent with McDonald in terms of being physically outmatched or otherwise. His bodywork I found good. I've mentioned that in my profiles. But he doesn't have the upper body strength to take advantage of opponents.

The example I keep coming back to that is easiest for people to consider is McDonald v DGB. DGB won that matchup in that one quarter they were matched up and actually won all their 1v1s. McDonald didn't take advantage despite how thin DGB is. That's not his game, and that's not understanding what he does. And similarly talking athleticism is missing the point. He's not an elite speed or endurance athlete. He's an elite endurance athlete though and a good leaper. But he has the all-around forward craft.

Being a great key forward isn't about being an athlete. There are countless ways you can dominate. He'll leap and take marks. He'll burn guys around the ground. He makes the most out of his opportunities in front of goal and can finish and convert set shots. He has good footy smarts. He's good at ground level.

If I'm to compare McDonald to the King's. He's not that athlete, that height or that mark those guys are. But he's covering a lot more ground than them, can do a lot more around the ground, he's a better kick and he's relatively speaking better at ground level. I'd say in a comparison, and same story against Jamarra, he's a better rounded and more complete footballer. It's more so why a say Jamarra I would rate have of McDonald is he has his unstoppable moves - being that guy where if he gets a run and jump at the ball, it's over for everyone. You can't defend him, and it feels the same on the lead and when isolated 1v1 i50. That's what makes him the guy. But then you compare McDonald to Jamarra and look at the flip side. And Jamarra isn't that same aerobic athlete, he's embarrassingly poor by foot by comparison and hasn't shown he can operate outside the forward 50m as Logan can.

I'd contend that shutting down a McDonald will be harder than shutting down the King's. If you have the height/athleticism/size, you can beat them. They're your i50 targets, where if you have an excellent key defender, you can limit them. A McDonald, as with a Riewoldt, if he isn't able to dominate closer to goal, he'll get higher up the ground and get his touches and take his marks and still get involved. He's a different player, but he has the opportunity to be as good, or maybe better, but in very contrasting respects.
Thanks and appreciation Knightmare that you have spent so much time and effort replying to our boards posts in relation to your ratings. Though I may not agree with everything you’ve said, it’s extremely interesting to me. I believe many other phantom draft compilers would not have bothered.


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briztoon

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Thanks and appreciation Knightmare that you have spent so much time and effort replying to our boards posts in relation to your ratings. Though I may not agree with everything you’ve said, it’s extremely interesting to me. I believe many other phantom draft compilers would not have bothered.


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The genuine ones, if you asked them, certainly would. And there’s a growing number of them.
 

WeedsMullet84

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and then put them through a club destroying mind game camp!
Mate you need another hobby, or you need to do a full reset and start supporting another club. OR maybe start following a different sport altogether, Footy doesn’t sound like it’s making you happy at all.


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Thetrader15

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Firstly thank you for your contribution. I genuinely enjoy your thread on Phantom Drafts and prospects of the next generation of kids coming through. Its well written and articulated.

I wanted to take you task here in regards to your ratings.

You claimed that RT would not have been your pick (which probably led you to grade us from an A to B+), but instead gone with McDonald. Which you rate as a tier above.

I genuinely think though its just not that simple. You have accepted the quality that RT is at the moment and potentially could be. You stated in your articles that RT has X factor and can play multiple positions and is faster than McDonald. Surely the SA component coupled with your earlier comments, given RT is "almost" at par with McDonald is a massive variable in the decision making process, esp given the challenges of player retention?

Unless McDonald in your opinion is a generational player, did the Crows did make the right decision or wrong one? In your Phantom Draft you had the Crows taking RT which they did.

When grading did you attribute points to the Crows selecting JUH at pick 1?

For the record, these are the Clubs you rated performed better than Adelaide at the 2020 draft:

You gave an A+ to Carlton, Suns, North, Sydney and Dogs.

You gave an A to Pies , Eagles and Tigers.

I know this whole exercise tbh is nonsensical, given no one knows definitively who really won, until you take a retrospective look at this draft in a few years time. But its summer and its a healthy debate. Thanks.
So did the crows get marked down for taking Thilthorpe at 2 when McDonald was KM's first pick, however North got an A+ and took Phillips while McDonald was still there?
 

GROTTO

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So did the crows get marked down for taking Thilthorpe at 2 when McDonald was KM's first pick, however North got an A+ and took Phillips while McDonald was still there?
Yes. Thats the point I was making with Knightmare

I think the fact that so many Clubs got an A, was really the main reason why I raised this issue.

As I said, its a point of discussion. No rating can really be achieved now, not for a few years, but its an interesting summer exercise to discuss.
 

Knightmare

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Thanks and appreciation Knightmare that you have spent so much time and effort replying to our boards posts in relation to your ratings. Though I may not agree with everything you’ve said, it’s extremely interesting to me. I believe many other phantom draft compilers would not have bothered.


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It's not about agreeing/disagreeing. Everyone will have their own positions and if everyone had the same views it would be pretty boring.

I post on bigfooty for the discussion. That's what it's about ultimately.
 

Crow Envy

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Yes. Thats the point I was making with Knightmare

I think the fact that so many Clubs got an A, was really the main reason why I raised this issue.

As I said, its a point of discussion. No rating can really be achieved now, not for a few years, but its an interesting summer exercise to discuss.
There’s no doubt Knightmare puts a lot of work into the draft each year, but didn’t this year he admit to not watching the sanfl and WAFL because he had to pay? How much can be taken from his opinion if that’s the case.

The other thing is it’s just his opinion, we could all do the same level of work and come up with differing views on players. I’d like to know if he’s had a decent track record with his player ratings in the past.
 

GrommoT

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There’s no doubt Knightmare puts a lot of work into the draft each year, but didn’t this year he admit to not watching the sanfl and WAFL because he had to pay? How much can be taken from his opinion if that’s the case.
...
KM didn't know whether the SANFL digital pass games would be available up until draft night - and apparently didn't get answers from anyone on this. From memory, access to games through the digital pass games stopped not long after the SANFL grand final in 2019 when I had a subscription - and I wasn't aware youth games were available in that year.

In hindsight, KM could have made better use of the SANFL pass resource from the sounds of it and I think will look to do so next year.

As for WA, is there an equivalent to the SANFL digital pass?
 

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