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AFL AFL 2025

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the_big_sav

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North Melbourne
Didn't see a thread but sportsbet have team wins over under

Adelaide 11.5 Over 1.82 Under 1.91
Brisbane 14.5 1.87
Carlton 13.5 Over 1.75 Under 2.00
Collingwood 13.5 Over 1.91 Under 1.82
Essendon 9.5 Over 1.75 Under 1.99
Fremantle 12.5 Over 1.82 Under 1.91
Geelong 13.5 Over 1.75 Under 2.00
Gold Coast 11.5 Over 1.99 Under 1.75
GWS 14.5 Over 1.91 Under 1.82
Hawthorn 14.5 1.87
Melbourne 11.5 1.87
North Melbourne 5.5 1.87
Port Adelaide 13.5 Over 1.79 Under 1.95
Richmond 2.5 Over 1.69 Under 2.09
St Kilda 10.5 1.87
Sydney 14.5 Over 1.91 Under 1.82
West Coast 5.5 1.87
Western Bulldogs 12.5 1.87

So their "ladder" would be

Brisbane
Sydney
Hawthorn
GWS

Geelong
Carlton
Collingwood
Port Adelaide

Fremantle
Bulldogs

Adelaide
Gold Coast
Melbourne

Stk Kilda
Essendon

West Coast
North Melbourne

Richmond
 
AFL Season Wins I dont mind.

I agree with Kane Cornes and King , Gold Coast over 11.5 Win (Kanes Lock), North Melbourne Over 5.5 Wins (another one of Kanes Locks) in their SEN preview I heard this week. I have 11 selections agreeing with Kane, and 6 agreeing with David King out of 18.

Multi 1- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins. Odds $6.65 (0.50u)

Multi 2- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins, Melbourne Under 11.5 Wins. Odds $12.77 (0.25u)

Multi 3- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins, Melbourne Under 11.5 Wins, Collingwood Over 13.5 Wins. Odds $25.03 (0.125u)
 
LOL gold coast finally going to learn how to win on road properly? you'd hope so...

could be some good cash to be made on Indiginous game Sat night.. b365 anytime goalscorer odds are a fair bit above other sites.. you'd think freo take it seriously too and won't want to be shown up at home so I put freo 40.5 headstart into each of the guys who should kick goals in a free flowing game...

Value seems to be in Jesse Motlop whos now fully fit and ready to get back to his form from two years ago at Carlton.. he's 2.65 (2.90 when add the freo leg) AGS and Maurice Rioli 3.15 AGS (3.40 when you add freo headstart) both guys are exclusive forwards and with a squad of 30 will get a fair few chances at goals you'd think in an open game... also taken the solid guys who are normally 1.20 each week like Pickett 1.65, Liam Ryan 1.65.. , Willie Rioli 1.65, Stengle 1.38 ... think the fitter freo mids will score goals too like Erasmus AGS looks value at 3.25 (aerobic beast kicked 2 in intra club) Brayshaw 2.55 I doubt there will be much mid accountability here. Murphy Reid 2.50 looks nice too as he will be mostly forward early on and has good goal sense
 

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Also taking Freo h2h at a generous 2.00 tab... prefer their familarity with each other and home ground theyll be taking it seriously... All stars missing 2 big key defenders in Jones and Pearce (from freo) think Treacy/Sturt/Amiss will do ok.. think All stars have May, Jeffrey from Gc who will have to prob go back and maybe Ash Johnson as keys? that doesn't bode too well tbh... and just more accountability and familarity all around should see them win
 
demon_fanatic said:
LOL gold coast finally going to learn how to win on road properly? you'd hope so...

could be some good cash to be made on Indiginous game Sat night.. b365 anytime goalscorer odds are a fair bit above other sites.. you'd think freo take it seriously too and won't want to be shown up at home so I put freo 40.5 headstart into each of the guys who should kick goals in a free flowing game...

Value seems to be in Jesse Motlop whos now fully fit and ready to get back to his form from two years ago at Carlton.. he's 2.65 (2.90 when add the freo leg) AGS and Maurice Rioli 3.15 AGS (3.40 when you add freo headstart) both guys are exclusive forwards and with a squad of 30 will get a fair few chances at goals you'd think in an open game... also taken the solid guys who are normally 1.20 each week like Pickett 1.65, Liam Ryan 1.65.. , Willie Rioli 1.65, Stengle 1.38 ... think the fitter freo mids will score goals too like Erasmus AGS looks value at 3.25 (aerobic beast kicked 2 in intra club) Brayshaw 2.55 I doubt there will be much mid accountability here. Murphy Reid 2.50 looks nice too as he will be mostly forward early on and has good goal sense
Click to expand...
Dont usually agree with alot of what Kane says but I think might be worth listening to , if unsure of future bets.



Gold Coast Wins for me in 2025:

Rd 0- Essendon (Home) Win
Rd 1- WCE Win
Rd 2- BYE
Rd 3 - Melbourne Win
Rd 4- Adelaide (Home) Win
Rd 5- North Melbourne Loss (Neutral)
Rd 6- Richmond Win
Rd 7- Sydney (Home) Win
Rd 8- Brisbane Loss
Rd 9- Western Bulldogs (Home in Darwin) Win
Rd 10- Hawthorn (Home in Darwin) Win
Rd 11- Saints Win
Rd 12- Freo (Home) Win
Rd 13- Geelong Loss
Rd 14-BYE
Rd 15- GWS Loss
Rd 16- Melbourne (Home) Win
Rd 17- Essendon Win
Rd 18- Collingwood (Home) Loss
Rd 19- Adelaide Loss
Rd 20- Brisbane (Home) Win
Rd 21- Richmond (Home) Loss
Rd 22- Carlton Loss
Rd 23- GWS (Home) Loss
Rd 24- Port Adelaide Loss



I have them weirdly losing 6 of their last 7 but splitting with Brisbane 1-1. They are a tough team to beat up in the NT.

Things good about the draw, double ups against: Essendon, Melbourne, 2 NT Games, Richmond. I have them winning those 7-1. I have also them dropping a couple of surprise games to Richmond and North Melbourne during the season. They also have two byes during the season which I think is a bit of an advantage.

The first half of the season is a pretty reasonable run for them. I also think like with previous seasons they have a drop off in that run home.
 
Kangaroos bottom 4
WCE bottom 4
Richmond bottom 4
GWS top 8
Carlton top 8
Geelong top 8
Collingwood top 8
Sydney top 4

$16.25


Rising star - Ashcroft
Coleman - Curnow
Cripps - Brownlow
Melbourne - top 8

$641.25
 
Freo +40.5, Sturt AGS (1.22), Stengle AGS (1.38) Treacy AGS ( 1.08) Amiss AGS (1.12) Reidy AGS (3.00) Willie Rioli AGS (1.65) Walters AGS (1.75) Jesse Motlop AGS (2.65) - multi pays 56.00 at B365..

Freo have actually drifted a shade to 2.00 underdogs and 2.5 handicap compared to most sites who now have them favourite so the handicap is a little better now to boost those goal prices.. Obviously the two value ones in Motlop and Reidy are based on Motlop being back to full fitness and form and not really being able to play anywhere but deep forward you'd think... guys like Rankine/Pickett will need to go through the mid a bit more.. Reidy kicked a few goals in intra club and with Amiss/Treacy taking May and whoever their 2nd best defender is... he should use his size to snag a grab and a goal here as he will be keen to press his claim for round 1... all other goalscorers are pretty self explanatory
 
A couple of unders parlays I dont mind for the 2025 Season. Lines are from TAB which has Carlton at U/O 14.5 Wins and Adelaide U/O 12.5 wins- slight variations from the lines at Sportsbet. The lines for Carlton 13.5 and Adelaide 11.5 leaves me with less confidence but happy to take the extra win on the unders for both- just to leave me with a little breathing room.

Multi 1- Carlton Under 14.5 Wins, Adelaide Under 12.5 Wins, GWS Under 14.5 Wins. Odds $6.17 with the TAB Multiplier (0.50u)

Multi 2- Carlton Under 14.5 Wins, Adelaide Under 12.5 Wins, GWS Under 14.5 Wins, North 8+ Wins. Odds: $16.03 (0.25u)

Think GWS will be thereabouts but the loss of key players this off-season means they fall a little behind the pack. Will be strong at home but can see them dropping away fixtures to: Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and Bulldogs.

Carlton 14.5 line seems a bit high for me. Their 2nd half of 2024 , they looked like they ran out of puff, especially with their younger kids. I can see a similar thing happen again this season. They didnt really add any experienced players that helps them this off season. if you get an injury or two to their top 6 players, the team could come crashing down.

And I can't go overs on a Matthew Nicks coached side for Adelaide.
 

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Dabbles Pick Em Futures for Goalkickers at 42.80

All for the Regular Season (minimum 15 matches)

IMG_4495.jpeg



All players cleared these lines last year bar Amiss who kicked 36 goals. The one Im worried about in that lot? Probably Fritsch. Melbourne look a pretty poor side in 2025 and not sure how effective having another goal tall gettor in JVR affects his play. For the large part of last season he looked like the number 2 target. Still, given the choice of under or over on Fritsch at that line I have to go the over.

Think with Stringer gone, Langford has to play most of the season up forward. He is quite an effective tall forward too. I think having no Stringer in that team will increase his goals per game this season. Harry Jones and that Rising Star nominee, Nate Caddy, tall forward from last season are still raw at this level. If there is a sportsbook offering a line for Caddy, somewhere in the late 20's or low 30s, I reckon that goes over. But given the option of under or over, id lean the over there for Langford. Essendon gets to play Richmond twice this season.

Amiss kicked 2 on the weekend playing majorly forward. Only thing is if this doesn't clear is injury or happens to miss a few games. (Im under the assumption Dabble will void if the player doesnt reach his 15 games)

J Cameron gets to play Richmond in the last game of the season when possibly the Coleman Medal might be up for grabs. Geelong too get to play Richmond twice this season. Averages over 2.5 goals a game at Kardinia Park and Geelong get 10 games at GMHBA.

Larkey line to go over. 10 games at the Marvel where he averages over 2 goals a game in his career. Away fixtures against Tigers and West Coast, grounds also where he has historically done well. Its the accuracy which surprised me 16 goals 2 behinds at Perth Stadium, 46 goals 18 behinds at the ground at Bellerive Oval. Even if North turn out another dud season, this line can still clear.



Also done one at Pointsbet putting 4 legs together for the 2025 Regular Season:
J Cameron 50+ Goals
Larkey 50+ Goals
Amiss 40+ Goals
Shannon Neale 40+ Goals
Odds: $42.27

S Neale scored a goal in every game last year bar the Prelim Final versus Brisbane. A little speculative play on him to kick 40+ goals this season on top of the other 3 selections. With Tom Hawkins gone, I expect him to play as the 2nd tall forward there this season. Neale in 2025, to kick 50+ is 6.50, 60+ goals at 17 may appeal to a few on here.
 
As Dabble gave me a bonus bet, ive decided to do a mixture of parlay for these 5 picks about these players who we have heard either wanted to leave, aren't happy or could potentially be traded next season. Just been outside noise in the off season and I think that may affect their averages or performances this season. Oliver/Petracca wanted out last season. Rowell with the return to Vic potential trade. Tim Kelly also said he lost his love for the game this week. And Warner with the potential of being traded back home to WA.

Ive picked these 5 , based on the averages last season. All of these lines are higher than their averages for last season. I believe for each of them, there will be a large proportion in games where they potentially will have reduced time on ground.

I think they ease Bailey Smith back into this Geelong team. 26.4 disposals a game seems a high line given he missed the majority of last season. I think this is also likelihood he can be used as a bit of a goal sneak and spend chunks of time in the forward line.



IMG_4497.jpeg


Warner, Petracca, Rowell and Bailey Smith strike me as impact players rather than accumulators. Odds of $40.80 on it. Bar Oliver and Tim Kelly, generally the other 4 one doesn't judge their game on their team needing them to get as much as the ball as possible.
 
NYRB said:
Dabbles Pick Em Futures for Goalkickers at 42.80

All for the Regular Season (minimum 15 matches)

View attachment 2228570
Click to expand...
What happens if any one of those players play 14 games or less does the bet get voided or just their leg?

Strikes me as odds of 42.80 for a number of players to have a below average year.
 
My bankroll took an absolute hammering last year betting AFL.

Such a bizarre season I feel like.

I agree that North O5.5 is a huge lock, although the odds have come in a lot since it opened late last year.

Even at O6.5 I think it's pretty much a lock.

Have them winning at least 8 games, but wouldn't be surprise if they got as high as 12 or so.

Gold Coast O10.5 is another lock IMO, but the odds have also been smashed, but I think anything $1.70+ is pretty much free money to be collected in late August.

Also like Sydney O14.5, think they will be a top 4 calibre team again, which of course means 15+ wins
 
ash_1050 said:
What happens if any one of those players play 14 games or less does the bet get voided or just their leg?

Strikes me as odds of 42.80 for a number of players to have a below average year.
Click to expand...
I emailed Dabble.

1739932930962.png
1739933024670.png

1739932978544.png
1739933054027.png



Dabble said that if they play 14 games or less, bets for that selection would be void just for that leg.

In that case, going unders in a multi requires more an underperforming season, like you said and probably not that great a bet. I guess its better insurance for going overs on those props. Rules weren't really made clear on the website when placing the bet. You wouldnt rule someone like Curnow for instance kicking 50 goals from 15 games, I heard he for instance might miss early rounds of the season to injury. If betting on goalscorers, Id have less incentive to back unders based on that rule.

I think its the first season where Ive seen a sportsbook offer under or overs for goals scored for a variety of goalscorers.
 
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And as I speak I noticed they have pulled Charlie Curnows goal line off. When I looked at the site the other day his line was U/O 52.5 Goals on Dabble. I also noticed some adjustments made on those lines and for other props. Eg Clayton Olivers disposal average has gone from 28.2 to 27.2.

So I decided to add a couple more.

Oscar Allen to go over 38.5 Regular Season goals. Kicked 20 off 11 games last season. If he goes close to a full season , he clears this. Him being back in this lineup , means less goals for Waterman. Allen is the better forward and as captain or co-captain demands more of the ball.

Charlie Cameron to go over 36.5 Regular Season Goals. No Joe Daniher means more opportunities for him. Just cleared this line line season with 37 during the H&A season. Has cleared this line comfortably past few seasons (excluding COVID year). Think we saw a bit of a decline in C Cameron last season but he should still be good enough to clear this line.


Notice they have a fair amount of 'injury prone forwards' listed eg Tom Lynch, Thilthorpe, Max King. I think there is a chance those 3 could break down again, so Im happy to swerve that and not chuck them in any of my multis. Not even with the added insurance of a refund, do I want to take them on.

Oscar Allen Over 38.5 Goals
Jye Amiss Over 37.5 Goals
Larkey Over 45.5 Goals (this line has moved up a goal since I last posted)
J Cameron Over 48.5 Goals
C Cameron Over 36.5 Goals
Odds: $26.25 (1u)

Oscar Allen Over 38.5 Goals
Jye Amiss Over 37.5 Goals
Larkey Over 45.5 Goals
J Cameron Over 48.5 Goals
C Cameron Over 36.5 Goals
McKay Over 42.5 Goals
Odds: $40.80 (0.5u)

Oscar Allen Over 38.5 Goals
Jye Amiss Over 37.5 Goals
Larkey Over 45.5 Goals
J Cameron Over 48.5 Goals
C Cameron Over 36.5 Goals
McKay Over 42.5 Goals
Langford Over 37.5 Goals
Odds: $80 (0.25u)

What am I missing with these bets? Im going to say this, I also think there is a good chance at least one of those forwards breaks down but feel happy with the insurance rule in-play.
 
And a 0.5u stake on J Cameron and Larkey both to score 50+ Goals, O Allen and Amiss to Kick 40+ Goals each.

1739936935511.png

Pointsbet rules are different. Its 'all-in' eg if your player breaks down, there is no refund or insurance. So different sportsbooks have different rules.
 
Oscar Allen 40+ Goals, Mabior Chol 40+ Goals, Logan McDonald 40+ Goals @ 31.44 (Bet Refund if 1 Leg Fails) (1u)
Oscar Allen 50+ Goals, Mabior Chol 50+ Goals, Logan McDonald 50+ Goals @ 486.20 Boosted (Trixie Bet- 0.08u for the treble, 0.24u combined for the doubles of each)
Oscar Allen 60+ Goals, Mabior Chol 60+ Goals, Logan McDonald 60+ Goals @ 6970 (Trixie Bet-0.04 for the treble, 0.12 units combined for the doubles)

A bit of loose change on those last two for a bit of a hit and giggle to keep the season interesting. Dabble don't have Under/Over lines on the goalscorers for Chol and Logan.

Mabior Chol kick 36 goals last season. He kicked 44 goals , 2 years ago in a far lesser side. If offered a line, it should be somewhere in the mid 30s at worst. A speculative little play for 40+ Goals in my parlay since I think in a better team him to be around that mark and maybe have a breakout season.

Logan McDonald to kick 40+ goals. His output in each season in the regular season has improved: 15 in 2022, 30 in 2023, 34 in 2024. He most likely will improve his goal tally in the previous season. Logans line would also be somewhere in the low to mid 30s.

Hoping the 3 lads stay on the ball park for the season. Used my Bet Refund token in case 1 of the boys breaks down in 2025.

Ive created a stick reference, as these odds are offered by : Dabble, PointsBet and Sportsbet. Sportsbet offer single straight up bets for the ton. You can create multis in the same columns at Dabble and PB. With PB you can cross-match between the 40 and 80 goal range.

Season Goals and Lines:

1739964969245.png

Lines as at 20/2/25

Think 40+ for all three forwards to clear in a season is a perfectly reasonable number.
 
I’m liking Soligo to top the crows brownlow votes at $10.
Only Dawson$1.50
And Rankin $4 ahead of him.

I think Soligo will have a breakout year with Laird going back. Dawson the worry but seems to underpoll to me.
Rankin with hammys always in play.
 
anyone going to bet this weeks pre season games?? Geelong normally take it pretty seriously and always look sharp and Pies should smash the tigers so they are two solid starting legs for multis.. don't mind Stkilda at the 7.5 line underdogs vs Port as port are sorting out a few things I feel. Hawks should handle the dogs too (1.50) and I like Gws vs Carlton (1.60)
 

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