Resource AFL Fantasy spreadsheet - 2022

[Jivlain]

Nice work mate! How were the predicted scores calculated/which factors were taken into account?

The pricing formula I use is:

Where:
Pn is their price ahead of round n
Sn is their score in round n
Mn is the magic number for round n
K = [0.085, 0.068, 0.051, 0.034, 0.017]

See page 1 for discussion of how we got there. And then for making predictions based on this formula:

Predicted score - The score I assumed for the next round in price prediction. What it in fact is is the average of the last five games they have played (ever). Could go for something more sophisticated I guess... but then, if I had an actual way of predicting the next score I probably wouldn't be sharing that Anyway, included primarily for transparency, the predicted change is dependent on this. With it there you can choose whether you believe it or not and decide from that.

Predicted change - The predicted change this week. This is based on the difference between the predicted price for next price and what I estimated the price for this round to be - that should (more-or-less) control for inaccuracies in the formula.

Enjoy!

 

[Jivlain]

And we're back!

No Freako email so far, no FootyWire update, the AFL doubling and tripling down on its frantic insistence that humans may not, under any circumstances, have usable access to any data, my database structure screaming with the torture of a thousand souls... and yet the spreadsheet shambles on, zombie-like. It literally cannot be stopped.

AFL Fantasy spreadsheet 2020 edition - round 1

Plus an ownership column.

 

[Jivlain]

AFL Fantasy spreadsheet - round 7