AFL - first week of finals

[KardiniaPark]

Milney is taking the piss now.

 

[Quantum]

Every week it's the same...surly he won't do it again I say...and every time he does

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Good old Milne.

 

[denitofinito]

He even let 5 other players have a crack at this first this time.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

weak st kilda

 

[denitofinito]

**** yeah

 

[twarby]

if the Swans kick straight they will win by 30+

3.20 is a gift from above

mad KP?

 

[denitofinito]

mad KP?

$6 lol

 

[Ferris_rules]

Hmmm this should make you laugh.

I have gone with the Swans at the line 24.5 1u and have also backed them to win by >39.5 pts at $13 1u

Im using the last game to guide me 33 shots to 18 suggests to me they should have won by more than 15 pts.

If they won by 5-6 goals as they should have, the betting prices would be a lot closer.

Note, unless its h-h bets I choke most times than not, lol so lay my bets to win!!!

Happy with my selections.

I think the Swans were definitely a chance to roll the Saints tonight by more than 40pts.

Biggest lead was 32pts.

Which makes next week interesting.

Swans V Hawks

If Buddy was playing I would have no hesitation in backing the Hawks, but his loss does change things a lot.

Would love to hear others thoughts about Blues V Dons tomorrow! ?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

mad KP?

I'm sure he'll give some bullshit reason why that was out of the ordinary. Hope you didn't do your ringhole KP

 

[TigesArmy]

Happy with my selections.

I think the Swans were definitely a chance to roll the Saints tonight by more than 40pts.

Biggest lead was 32pts.

Which makes next week interesting.

Swans V Hawks

If Buddy was playing I would have no hesitation in backing the Hawks, but his loss does change things a lot.

Would love to hear others thoughts about Blues V Dons tomorrow! ?

Going to chuck maybe 10 bucks on essendon U39 and a storms victory just for the sake of making the bombers match more interesting to watch

 

[brooklyn]

would love to get sydney in a prelim rather than hawks...

geelong have an easy run with either WC, bombers or the blues in melbourne...

cannot see anything other than a pies/cats grand final...

cats are the only team who could possibly beat us on grand final day... and even then id be confident of rolling them...

 

[KardiniaPark]

I'm sure he'll give some bullshit reason why that was out of the ordinary. Hope you didn't do your ringhole KP

Nope, I was wrong. My ringhole still intact. Just.

Well done to all.

 

[baywatch5]

Great win by the Cats last night adding x3 units

Saturdays Finals

ATS - MAGPIES -29.5 (x2) Loss

ATS - SWANS +17.5 (x2) Winner

1-1 split in yesterday's finals with the Pies failing to cover .... Small -0.2u loss.

Today's Elimination Final

ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x3)

 

[Big Fozza]

Has been a good weekend so far. Had the cats straight win, pies 1-39 and broncos straight. Going to test it today by blues -11.5

C'mon Carlton!

 

[Ferris_rules]

Has been a good weekend so far. Had the cats straight win, pies 1-39 and broncos straight. Going to test it today by blues -11.5

C'mon Carlton!

Nice selection.

Two questions.

1. Why didnt you go Cats 1-39 given you backed the Pies 1-39 which if any of the games, I would have thought the Pies may have blown the Eagles away?

2. How confident are you on the Blues?

 

[Big Fozza]

Nice selection.

Two questions.

1. Why didnt you go Cats 1-39 given you backed the Pies 1-39 which if any of the games, I would have thought the Pies may have blown the Eagles away?

2. How confident are you on the Blues?

Good question. I think that I was happy enough with the head to head odds on cats. And just gut instinct on eagles to keep it close. When I think about it now though it makes sense to do it the way you suggested.

I'm not very confident in the blues, especially when it's wet. I think Judd will drag them over the line. Just. Not overly happy with my bet.

 

[IDIG]

What was Pies 1-39 paying? I agree with Ferris's logic but it probably worked out in your favour doing it the way you did.

 

[Borgsta]

PIes 1-39 would have been $2.30 or so I'd imagine.

Will be all over the Swans next week. Will beat the Hawks with or without Buddy.

 

[TurboBreuster]

1-1 split in yesterday's finals with the Pies failing to cover .... Small -0.2u loss.

Today's Elimination Final

ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x3)

Will tail x5.5U.

 

[Big Fozza]

What was Pies 1-39 paying? I agree with Ferris's logic but it probably worked out in your favour doing it the way you did.

2.40

Had 50 on it

 

[Thedeftouch]

i am kind of looking forward to losing money laying milne fgs tonight...it just feels so comfortable

very comfortable

 

[Ferris_rules]

I have crunched the numbers for the Blues V Dons.

They point to at least a 20 pt win for the Blues. Ive taken the Blues H-H, but the line is attractive. It wouldnt surprise me if they roll the Dons if they get away to a fast start too.

A lot has been made of the Blues losing their last two. Well they lost a meaningless R24 game to the Saints and lost to a top 4 side the week before the bye by less than 4 goals

The dons well, they were smashed by a top 4 side by almost 10 goals and should have lost to the wooden spoon runners up by 5 goals, the Power choked when they should have won.

The Blues does have some injury concerns no doubt about that, but IMO can cover those loses.

The Blues top 5 is blue-chip courtesy of tanking and salary cap cheating which is their midfield.
Importantly this is their engine room which given the weather in Melbourne will be crucial. Their small forwards will be relishing wet dirty Melbourne day.

The Dons have Jobe Watson that is a blue chip. Huge question mark over Hurley too.

At the G, Carlton 8 games for 5 wins - 2 losses against Top 4 - 1 in meaningless R 24 game against a desperate Saints needing to win to play a home final.

The dons, 7 games at the G, 1 win against the Tigers. 6 losses - 2 against bottom 8 teams and importantly 1 against Carlton only about 6 weeks ago where they were smashed.

The Blues have played the last two finals with narrow losses in each, the Dons last played in 09 and were humiliated by the Crows. The other significant issue is that probably Ratten's coaching contract is linked to this one win today, he will be over meticulous in his preparation.

Another issue is the bye, the Dons last time came off a bye and lost. Interesting that the "Hawks bye" last week didnt help them much IMO. If anything they looked a little rusty.

The only thing IMO that will throw a spanner in the works is the choke tag for the Blues.

 

[twarby]

you just keep throwing money away both on afl plus the brownlow

look forward to 3 wks time

 

[Thedeftouch]

I'm shading my offers to attract Carlton/overs backers today.

I think Essendon will win. Smarter coach + younger players will be enough to topple the overrated Blues. Built in value with public teams too.