AFL - Preliminary Finals

[balmainforever]

FRIDAY, 20TH SEPTEMBER
7.50pm: Hawthorn ($1.48) vs Geelong ($2.65) Line 12.5

SATURDAY, 21ST SEPTEMBER
7.50pm: Fremantle ($1.31) vs Sydney ($3.45) Line 20.5

Odds courtesy Sportsbet.com.au (as at 12.15pm on 15/9/13)

 

[GROTTO]

It appears the best two teams of the season are playing off in a prelim, I think the advantage is what the Hawks, they are ready and prepared. I expect the Dockers to kill the Swans in the other game.

Its funny, my Hawks-Cats GF quinella is still in pending stage, does the bookie know something that I dont lol?

 

[Willzzz]

Thinking about getting some tickets to the Hawks/Geelong Preliminary Final for myself and a few mates (Don't usually go to the footy but it should be good).
I'm a university student so can't afford Category 1/2 tickets.
Thinking about getting Category 7 tickets, which aren't too bad as they are Level 1 (M3 & M33).
Also, realised that M3 and M33 are where the Hawks & Cats Cheersquad are based.
Firstly, am I any chance of getting tickets in these bays when they go on-sale to the public (Monday 2pm) & does anyone have any tips/advice as to what would be the best bang for buck tickets?

 

[daniel_4tw]

Hawks/Geelong HT/FT is paying $9.50. Tempting...

 

[X_box_X]

So eight weeks ago I put $60 on Hawks/Dockers GF Quinella @ $11. At the time, I placed the bet thinking Hawthorn would finish on top and defeat the Dockers in week one of the Finals. I knew Hawthorn would play in the Friday night Prelim and I would have been confident in them dispatching of Sydney (I anticipated Geelong beating Sydney in week one).

I placed the bet with the aim of hedging my bet, as long as Hawthorn were already into the GF and my bet relied on the outcome of the second PF between Geelong and Freo. I was planning on throwing somewhere between $300-$400 on Geelong to sure up a $200 profit either way depending on the odds. I would have been satisfied with that outcome.

Obviously everything has changed now, with the quinella now paying less than $2 with most agencies. Given I expect both Hawthorn and Freo to win, I'm not going to hedge. I'm not after any advice, as I have made up my mind I won't be hedging, but I'm interested to hear what others would do in my situation, given that I initially planned to hedge.

I am 70% confident on Freo winning and 65% confident on Hawthorn winning. If I was going to hedge, Freo would have to be the first team to advance through to the GF, but obviously that can't happen. Due to being more confident on Freo winning, it would have been different if Freo played on Friday night and beat Sydney, and then I may have considered throwing something on Geelong with a head start (maybe $250 at Betstar's $2 powerline), with the chance of Hawthorn winning by 1-14 and coming out on top in both outcomes.

Only reason I won't be doing that now is based on the fact that my liability becomes too much if Freo don't get the job done on Saturday night.

 

[Blueboy3]

I'd let it ride personally but can understand why some would hedge.

 

[GROTTO]

So eight weeks ago I put $60 on Hawks/Dockers GF Quinella @ $11.

About a month ago I bet 10U on a Hawks-Cats GF @ $3.50. lol. Unless there is a peptide scandal on Saturday night, my bet is toast.

 

[AFLMulti]

Early Multi:
Hawks 1-39
Freo HT/FT
Manly sea eagles win
Melbourne storm win

Multi paying $6.66

Good Luck!

 

[Dominion]

You can get 3.85 on pinnacle for swans. Ill just assume for the below that this will still be the best price on Saturday, if its not numbers change but logic doesn't.

If Hawthorn wins, you could put $170 on Sydney to collect ~$660, profiting $490 either way. So your $60 bet will be "worth" $490 Saturday morning. Letting the bet ride is the equivalent of putting $490 on Freo at ~1.35 (660/490).

If you like/want to make that bet don't hedge. If you don't, hedge. Obv if you like freo at those odds but wouldn't want to bet that much you bet swans for less than the 170.

Basically I'm saying take the mindset that you will have already won whatever you can guarantee yourself on Saturday and letting it ride is equal to placing a bet of that amount on Freo, but at inflated odds since you 'make the bet' by NOT taking the Bookie's price.

Personally if I could get 1.35 on Freo and I had 500 it'd go straight on, so I'm in the 'let it ride' camp

 

[Dominion]

Also pretty sure there a $100 max on Betstar Powerlines?

 

[Roby]

It appears the best two teams of the season are playing off in a prelim, I think the advantage is what the Hawks, they are ready and prepared. I expect the Dockers to kill the Swans in the other game.

Its funny, my Hawks-Cats GF quinella is still in pending stage, does the bookie know something that I dont lol?

Technically it's still possible, think about it.

 

[Roby]

So eight weeks ago I put $60 on Hawks/Dockers GF Quinella @ $11. At the time, I placed the bet thinking Hawthorn would finish on top and defeat the Dockers in week one of the Finals. I knew Hawthorn would play in the Friday night Prelim and I would have been confident in them dispatching of Sydney (I anticipated Geelong beating Sydney in week one).

I placed the bet with the aim of hedging my bet, as long as Hawthorn were already into the GF and my bet relied on the outcome of the second PF between Geelong and Freo. I was planning on throwing somewhere between $300-$400 on Geelong to sure up a $200 profit either way depending on the odds. I would have been satisfied with that outcome.

Obviously everything has changed now, with the quinella now paying less than $2 with most agencies. Given I expect both Hawthorn and Freo to win, I'm not going to hedge. I'm not after any advice, as I have made up my mind I won't be hedging, but I'm interested to hear what others would do in my situation, given that I initially planned to hedge.

I am 70% confident on Freo winning and 65% confident on Hawthorn winning. If I was going to hedge, Freo would have to be the first team to advance through to the GF, but obviously that can't happen. Due to being more confident on Freo winning, it would have been different if Freo played on Friday night and beat Sydney, and then I may have considered throwing something on Geelong with a head start (maybe $250 at Betstar's $2 powerline), with the chance of Hawthorn winning by 1-14 and coming out on top in both outcomes.

Only reason I won't be doing that now is based on the fact that my liability becomes too much if Freo don't get the job done on Saturday night.

I would never hedge unless:

- I invested considerable about of money which I was not prepared to lose
- the bet looked like it might not be good value and therefore the other outcomes presented are of equal or greater value

In the first scenario it is unlikely it would eventuate unless a bet of very long odds bet could came up (which I rarely do), and because as a rule I never bet more than a certain amount of my bankroll.

The second scenario I wouldn't even considering it as hedging, if the bet represents good enough value on it's own. This year I have bet on three different quinella's, two of them are still possible, and the bets were put at different times of the year.

I could hedge against those quinella outcomes by betting for Sydney to win this week and coming out considerably on top regardless but that would mean I thought Sydney are a chance to win. Well anything can happen but I think it would very unlikely for the Swans to win this week. I would see it as a waste of a bet and money.

 

[GROTTO]

Technically it's still possible, think about it.

hmmm how? Im confused? lol

 

[KardiniaPark]

hmmm how? Im confused? lol

Freo could be charged with bringing the game into disrepute for wearing purple so the highest two teams go through. It won't happen but it should.

 

[GROTTO]

If the prelims are drawn at FT (Normal Time) is the HH (or line bets) bets still live or is it a dead heat?

ie. Does it depend on extra time result?

 

[The GOAT]

If the prelims are drawn at FT (Normal Time) is the HH (or line bets) bets still live or is it a dead heat?

ie. Does it depend on extra time result?

H2H and line both include the extra time. Some markets (like the under/over 39) don't include the extra time, these have a draw option in the market.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

**** it. Hawthorn too short and no value anymore. May as well multi that with the dockers and chuck my freebet on Geelong 1-39.

nobody cares about your ramblings. Place a bet first, then post it.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hawthorn no value anymore so adding some random $1.03 plays in 4th div handball to bump it up to $1.55. Will also be having a small play on Hawthorn 1-39 & 39+ and Geelong 1-39 & 39+ and ill probs cover the draw in play if its close.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Well trust you to get a bit dirty on hearing my bets considering your atrocious record

what record?

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

You even have a thread dedicated to your losing record and it's not totally piss taking.

 

[Thedeftouch]

So eight weeks ago I put $60 on Hawks/Dockers GF Quinella @ $11. At the time, I placed the bet thinking Hawthorn would finish on top and defeat the Dockers in week one of the Finals. I knew Hawthorn would play in the Friday night Prelim and I would have been confident in them dispatching of Sydney (I anticipated Geelong beating Sydney in week one).

I placed the bet with the aim of hedging my bet, as long as Hawthorn were already into the GF and my bet relied on the outcome of the second PF between Geelong and Freo. I was planning on throwing somewhere between $300-$400 on Geelong to sure up a $200 profit either way depending on the odds. I would have been satisfied with that outcome.

Obviously everything has changed now, with the quinella now paying less than $2 with most agencies. Given I expect both Hawthorn and Freo to win, I'm not going to hedge. I'm not after any advice, as I have made up my mind I won't be hedging, but I'm interested to hear what others would do in my situation, given that I initially planned to hedge.

I am 70% confident on Freo winning and 65% confident on Hawthorn winning. If I was going to hedge, Freo would have to be the first team to advance through to the GF, but obviously that can't happen. Due to being more confident on Freo winning, it would have been different if Freo played on Friday night and beat Sydney, and then I may have considered throwing something on Geelong with a head start (maybe $250 at Betstar's $2 powerline), with the chance of Hawthorn winning by 1-14 and coming out on top in both outcomes.

Only reason I won't be doing that now is based on the fact that my liability becomes too much if Freo don't get the job done on Saturday night.

Tl;dr, just let it ride you pussy.

 

[Willzzz]

About a month ago I bet 10U on a Hawks-Cats GF @ $3.50. lol. Unless there is a peptide scandal on Saturday night, my bet is toast.

Bad Luck Grotto. Can't see that happening.

I had a big feeling before the finals series, that the Grand Final would be Dockers/Geelong.
I've just had a feeling all year that these two teams would play off in the Grand Final.
I predicted Geelong to beat Fremantle, but Fremantle to beat Hawthorn (Would have taken pretty much any odds over $2 for the Dockers to beat the Hawks)

I still think it will be a Geelong/Fremantle Grand Final! Would be absolutely great for football!

 

[Willzzz]

Crowley, Ballantyne, Mayne vs. Johnson, Selwood, Chapman.
Fireworks!

 

[The GOAT]

Happy to take $1.8 plus on a Freo v Hawks GF

 

[GROTTO]

Happy to take $1.8 plus on a Freo v Hawks GF

You can get it for $1.91 at Sportsbet take PYOL -0.5 Hawks into Freo HH

Oh and please dont ask me to explain why

PYOL of Hawks -0.5 $1.46 is >>>> than Hawks HH $1.45

Unless I am missing something maybe one of the astute punters in here can explain please.