Afl round 17

[dUkezz]

Couldn't help but notice in the herald sun collingwood is 1.20 v Richmond this week... Surely that's value considering they should be <1.05

thinking of having a big crack before it gets smashed by the big punters

 

[adii_7]

1.10 at tab. already smashed

might break the bank and take out a loan put it all on st kilda...

i dont even care anymore. but they will win

 

[dUkezz]

Herald sun must hav a few typos

wce 1.80 v Carl 1.90---sun
wce 1.94 v Carl 1.87---centrebet

coll 1.10 on cb, rich 7.10?? 4.10 on tab...

Must b typos???

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I don't think Collingwood ever represent value when we're that short. We're a team that suffers from "letdowns" and "not being switched on" more than any other top AFL club.

 

[dUkezz]

But surely the form the pies are in you'd expect them to take care of Richmond pretty comfortably

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Absolutely, I'm very confident.

But at $1.10 they need to win that match a hypothetical > 9 times out of 10 for it to be "value". At $1.20 it's still > 4 times out of 5.

It's short, it will very likely to come off, I hope it does because I'm a Pies man, but it doesn't represent value IMHO.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I don't think Collingwood ever represent value when we're that short. We're a team that suffers from "letdowns" and "not being switched on" more than any other top AFL club.

Funny you mention this. Because I was thinking (without any research to back it up) that by backing against Collingwood when they start as short priced favourites would have been a profitable exercise the last few years. Take Melbourne this year for example. There a couple more from last year that esacpe me atm but Im sure there are plenty more just in the recent past. The pies are a team that like to start underdogs imo, just like last week and rise to the occassion. Then when they are expected to win they do not bring this same sort of intensity.

 

[dUkezz]

Yeh I won't bother at 1.10 but at 1.20 I woulda gOne hard at it

 

[Cuzz09]

West Coast Vs Carlton is a very hard game to tip.

Im think either team under 15.5

Eddie Betts most goals.

 

[GoodesStuff]

West Coast Vs Carlton is a very hard game to tip.

Im think either team under 15.5

Eddie Betts most goals.

Carlton are slight underdogs and I think that is wrong. I rate them about 1.80 chances.

West Coast's win and Carlton's loss has made the betting closer than it should be. IMO Carlton are a much better side and SHOULD account for the eagles.

 

[happy punter]

Pies coming off their best win of the season, now playing a bottom feeder. All signs point to a massive letdown IMO. No question of them not win, just think the Tigers at the line of +41.5 is massive. May even play them at +24.5 @ 3.00 for some additional value.

 

[dUkezz]

actually wont mind west coast over 15 in this one.. time will tell tho probs dont have the balls to bet on it tho lol

 

[Pelkanet]

Herald sun must hav a few typos

wce 1.80 v Carl 1.90---sun
wce 1.94 v Carl 1.87---centrebet

coll 1.10 on cb, rich 7.10?? 4.10 on tab...

Must b typos???

Hun only print approximate odds, because the actual markets haven't been released by Sunday night.

 

[brjafi]

Yeh I won't bother at 1.10 but at 1.20 I woulda gOne hard at it

Still more than any bank is offering and a given

 

[dUkezz]

yeh i no but nah 1.10s scare me lol

 

[cam]

Richmond +39.5 is going to be delicious. Can't wait.

 

[brjafi]

got a feeling the richmond + bets may back fire on some, just an opinion.

 

[brjafi]

pies love to flog richmond if they can, and right now they can so it may be a 40+ on collingwood, have to wait for teams

 

[Dr Awkward]

But at $1.10 they need to win that match a hypothetical > 9 times out of 10 for it to be "value". At $1.20 it's still > 4 times out of 5.

Actually even if they win 9 times out of 10 its still not value! Its just correct odds. I can never take anything below $1.2 it just doesnt add up mathematically to me its too hard to be right that often. You need to be right 10/11 times just to make a small profit. Too hard in the long run.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Actually even if they win 9 times out of 10 its still not value! Its just correct odds. I can never take anything below $1.2 it just doesnt add up mathematically to me its too hard to be right that often. You need to be right 10/11 times just to make a small profit. Too hard in the long run.

fascinating discussion.

My 5 cents worth, is that true I am cautious about these odds, I tend to include them in what I deem to be a "safe" multi, which tends to hit more times than misses.

With that said I included the Cats in my safe multi last week, lol.
The error of my ways was that the Crows were always a chance against a weary Cats outfit traveling and not in fantastic "finals" form. Ahhh hindsight.

 

[pacemaker]

At WA TAB

Richmond line is 41+ (could be worth a punt)
Fremantle line is 22+ (again could be worth a punt)

 

[dUkezz]

Doggies will run a struggling freo outfit off their feet

 

[Lakey91]

Doggies will run a struggling freo outfit off their feet

Particularly with them coming back from Darwin...

I quite like the look of Carlton. Have to remember that west coast is west coast, and the bombers were shocking. I think they offer pretty good value.

What are peoples thoughts on Essendon? Most thought they would fire up last week, but this week they have been drilled in the media - will this be the week they show some backbone?

 

[dUkezz]

Freo are struggling since the loss of barlow falling away in their loss to Richmond and just falling over the line v melb, don't forget they are coming from Perth aswell to a fast paced doggies style, I expect the dogs by over 25

north playing for a spot in the 8 need to win and I expect us to aswell

 

[daics_35]

Crows are the best bet for the week, they are playing port who are terrible and are at 1.25 with the tab. Also another good stat is that everyteam that has played the Dogs lose there next game except once this year which Collingwood beat the Dees by one point the following week.