Adding:
0.5u Carlton 1-39 @ $3.25
1u Essendon PYOL -11.5 @ $2.03
0.5u Sydney PYOL -49.5 / Port -15.5 @ $2.50
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Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Round 14
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
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AFL round 21
- Thread starter the_big_sav
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Adding:
0.5u Carlton 1-39 @ $3.25
1u Essendon PYOL -11.5 @ $2.03
0.5u Sydney PYOL -49.5 / Port -15.5 @ $2.50
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
1U Carlton +20.5 @1.92
1U WCE 1-39 @3
1U WCE +10.5 @1.92
1U TML <179.5 @1.92
1.5U Hawks SU @2.20
0.6U Hawks SU @3.00 (TW)
1U WCE 1-39 @3
1U WCE +10.5 @1.92
1U TML <179.5 @1.92
1.5U Hawks SU @2.20
0.6U Hawks SU @3.00 (TW)
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- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
2U J.Selwood <108.5 DT @1.87 (SBet)
Carrazzo tag without SJ
2U Heppell <110.5 DT @1.87 (TAB) - Ive seen his line at 100.5 elsewhere so some solid middle ground i might look at.
Hutchings tag
2U Enright <88.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Only avgs 78.9 and has only gone over 7/16 times this year. One of which was 89 and a couple 92's. Carlton naturally a hard team to score against.
2U Enright over S.Motlop DT @2.10 (S/Bet)
Enright has actually cleared his line of 88.5 in 3 if his last 4 games showing some form. So im sort of counteracting this bet a bit. Motlop an outside chance for Curnow. If enright goes 89+ id hope he would knock over Motlop. This could be an average bet, maybe shouldnt have got into Enright at all.
2U Armitage <92.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Only 3/12 times he has gone over this year. Usually avgs less over his past few years. Plays Sydney aswell which makes it hard however the SCG might suit him.
2U L.Shuey <95.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Chance of the hocking or Howlett tag. Only 6/17 times has he gone over.
2U Priddis <112.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Cant see me loseing both of the Shuey and Priddis ones. As Hocking should go to at least one. Hocking has gone to him last year and he has only gone over 5/18 times this year.
2U T.Walker -3 goals @1.63 (Lux)
High line due to last week. Cant see Rance letting him kick 4 or more. Ideal match up i would think.
2U T.Cotchin >99.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Has gone over in 7 of his last 8. Adelaide dont really tag ATM, Douglas has been doing some roles. He might get Douglas however i think he might go to Deledio who destroyed them last year when let free.
2U Zorko <90.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Has only gone over 6/18 times this year. Only 3 in his last 12 games. Collingwood should win and it might be tough for him.
2U Griffen 25+ disposals @1.87 (Lux)
His line is 27.5 at sportsbet which i rate as a bookie in accuracy for DT/exotic bets. North dont tag so he should go very well. Maybe some slight attention from Greenwood. Hes in great form. 29,28 and 32 without a tag in his last 4 games.
2U J.P.Kennedy <115.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
Every chance he gets the Weller tag. Has gone unders 11/18 times this year and @SCG has gone under 3/7 times.
2U Franklin over N.Riewoldt @1.60 (S/Bet)
N.Riewoldt to contend with Richards and Grundy at the SCG whilst Franklin will contend with little of quality defenders and could kick a bag. Missed the value but still see some there.
Carrazzo tag without SJ
2U Heppell <110.5 DT @1.87 (TAB) - Ive seen his line at 100.5 elsewhere so some solid middle ground i might look at.
Hutchings tag
2U Enright <88.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Only avgs 78.9 and has only gone over 7/16 times this year. One of which was 89 and a couple 92's. Carlton naturally a hard team to score against.
2U Enright over S.Motlop DT @2.10 (S/Bet)
Enright has actually cleared his line of 88.5 in 3 if his last 4 games showing some form. So im sort of counteracting this bet a bit. Motlop an outside chance for Curnow. If enright goes 89+ id hope he would knock over Motlop. This could be an average bet, maybe shouldnt have got into Enright at all.
2U Armitage <92.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Only 3/12 times he has gone over this year. Usually avgs less over his past few years. Plays Sydney aswell which makes it hard however the SCG might suit him.
2U L.Shuey <95.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Chance of the hocking or Howlett tag. Only 6/17 times has he gone over.
2U Priddis <112.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Cant see me loseing both of the Shuey and Priddis ones. As Hocking should go to at least one. Hocking has gone to him last year and he has only gone over 5/18 times this year.
2U T.Walker -3 goals @1.63 (Lux)
High line due to last week. Cant see Rance letting him kick 4 or more. Ideal match up i would think.
2U T.Cotchin >99.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Has gone over in 7 of his last 8. Adelaide dont really tag ATM, Douglas has been doing some roles. He might get Douglas however i think he might go to Deledio who destroyed them last year when let free.
2U Zorko <90.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)
Has only gone over 6/18 times this year. Only 3 in his last 12 games. Collingwood should win and it might be tough for him.
2U Griffen 25+ disposals @1.87 (Lux)
His line is 27.5 at sportsbet which i rate as a bookie in accuracy for DT/exotic bets. North dont tag so he should go very well. Maybe some slight attention from Greenwood. Hes in great form. 29,28 and 32 without a tag in his last 4 games.
2U J.P.Kennedy <115.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
Every chance he gets the Weller tag. Has gone unders 11/18 times this year and @SCG has gone under 3/7 times.
2U Franklin over N.Riewoldt @1.60 (S/Bet)
N.Riewoldt to contend with Richards and Grundy at the SCG whilst Franklin will contend with little of quality defenders and could kick a bag. Missed the value but still see some there.
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Quiet week for me just trying some middles:
0.52 units Kennedy between 109-115 DT @ $13.38
0.52 units Heppell between 101-110 DT @ $13.38
0.52 units Sloane between 101-107 DT @ 13.38
All are are at TAB and Luxbet. For those who don't follow it's Kennedy over 108.5 at Lux and under 115.5 at TAB and so on. Hopefully 365 don't come out with a better line but can't afford to wait with Luxes lines.
Kennedy averages 110 and has fallen in this range only once this year but has 5 scores between 103 and 116, so not great on that front really but it's still value.
Heppell averages 106 and has fallen in this range in 4 games (all in his last 7 games). 10 point middle is pretty good. A Hutchings tag might make the unders a more attractive play but i'm done trying to guess taggers.
Sloane averages 103 and has fallen in this range 4 times and a further 4 if we extend the range to 109. Has been very consistent and is usually around this mark.
0.52 units Kennedy between 109-115 DT @ $13.38
0.52 units Heppell between 101-110 DT @ $13.38
0.52 units Sloane between 101-107 DT @ 13.38
All are are at TAB and Luxbet. For those who don't follow it's Kennedy over 108.5 at Lux and under 115.5 at TAB and so on. Hopefully 365 don't come out with a better line but can't afford to wait with Luxes lines.
Kennedy averages 110 and has fallen in this range only once this year but has 5 scores between 103 and 116, so not great on that front really but it's still value.
Heppell averages 106 and has fallen in this range in 4 games (all in his last 7 games). 10 point middle is pretty good. A Hutchings tag might make the unders a more attractive play but i'm done trying to guess taggers.
Sloane averages 103 and has fallen in this range 4 times and a further 4 if we extend the range to 109. Has been very consistent and is usually around this mark.
Easing my way back into some player bets:
1U - David Zaharakis Over 92.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Has covered 10/19 times so far this year. Steps up in big games all the time and with Heppell, Watson and Goddard all above him in the tagging chain I expect him to do well.
1U - Dayne Beams Over 112.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Covered in 10/18 games this year. Been in some great form and should go bang again this week.
1U - David Zaharakis Over 92.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Has covered 10/19 times so far this year. Steps up in big games all the time and with Heppell, Watson and Goddard all above him in the tagging chain I expect him to do well.
1U - Dayne Beams Over 112.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
Covered in 10/18 games this year. Been in some great form and should go bang again this week.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
I see Carlton as a huge chance tomorrow night, however the value is probably now lost. Geelong should still be favourites to win this game and Carlton may go into 10.5 line wont surprise me.
Judd back to his best form along with Waite has almost made them a new team. Which they lacked for the majority of the season. Id me almost favouring them to win if they had Garlett up and about and Henderson playing. All of a sudden a Waite, Casboult, Yarran, Menzel forward line is fast, elusive and can take big pack marks.
Gibbs, Murphy, Judd, D.Thomas with taggers of Carrazzo and Curnow doing jobs week in week out makes them a formidable midfield that even some of the top teams would worry about.
K.Simpson is probably an AA player this year and Geelongs one man forward line with Hawkins means a solid defensive job from either Rowe or Jamison or both at times means the cats may find it very hard to score.
Judd back to his best form along with Waite has almost made them a new team. Which they lacked for the majority of the season. Id me almost favouring them to win if they had Garlett up and about and Henderson playing. All of a sudden a Waite, Casboult, Yarran, Menzel forward line is fast, elusive and can take big pack marks.
Gibbs, Murphy, Judd, D.Thomas with taggers of Carrazzo and Curnow doing jobs week in week out makes them a formidable midfield that even some of the top teams would worry about.
K.Simpson is probably an AA player this year and Geelongs one man forward line with Hawkins means a solid defensive job from either Rowe or Jamison or both at times means the cats may find it very hard to score.
Gift
Norm Smith Medallist
No chance. Its at Etihad and not at the MCG. Even if North fielded their VFL team Melbourne would still lose.
- Aug 15, 2011
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North have lost some shockers this year. Etihad does help, however North for 2 years, probably 3 have shown themselves to mentally fragile/vulnerable. If they have a home ground final locked up cant go forward or back they may well go in complacent and lose. Very unlikely but you never know. As i said ill likely jump on GWS to win this week as they are pushing out and Melb to have the most losses.
Luxbet changed Rockliff's line from 129.5 to 133.5 in DT. Pretty annoying, liked it a lot more at 129.5.
Then you will like 120.5 at TAB
If I had a TAB account I would haha.
Another nice 13 point middle there...
Im sure you could duck in to your local mate!!
120.5 is a stupidly low number for Rockliff. Hanley will be tagged, Rockliff can beat a tag regardless.
Agreed...
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
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Outside of the gabba though what is his avg like? Over unders for a line?
110, 137, 170 his last 3 outside the Gabba.
110 was against DreamTeam killers Melbourne aka "we cant win, so lets see how long we can hold the ball for until the other team gets it off us"
Although he travels away from his beloved Gabba this week, he does carry an impressive record at the MCG where he has averaged 124 over the last four years, including a solid 137 in round 16.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
Adding
2U Rockliff <133.5 DT @2.00 (lux)
2.5U Rockliff >120.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
2U Rockliff <133.5 DT @2.00 (lux)
2.5U Rockliff >120.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
The unders arent $2 at LUX anymore arent they? FML if they are, I only got 1.87.
- Aug 15, 2011
- 24,075
- 8,566
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- Port Adelaide
They f****d up I think. Yeh not anymore down to 1.76 from what I looked at a bit ago.
Guess Im happy I got 1.87 then lol.
