AFL Round 21 -

[Bayno82]

Early Lines posted

Geelong - 31.5 vs Carlton
St Kilda - 43.5 vs Richmond
Hawthorn - 28.5 vs Freo
collingwood -51.5 vs Adelaide
Western bulldogs - 6.5 vs Sydney
Melbourne -4.5 vs Port
Essendon -8.5 vs Brisbane
North - 3.5 vs West Coast

The North game is the only real one that I am thinking of, Boomers 300th should be enough to get over a poor West Coast. Even with there travelling record. Coll and St Kilda should give out some smashings but am not prepared to give a 7 goal head start. Brisbane is playing better as well but once again poor road record

 

[Lakey91]

DoonDuggy - I can assure you that you chose an easy week to make your punting debut on. Everybody cleaned up, and I can promise that its not every week that pretty much everyone has their 4 legged multi's get up.

 

[MaccasMillions]

DoonDuggy - I can assure you that you chose an easy week to make your punting debut on. Everybody cleaned up, and I can promise that its not every week that pretty much everyone has their 4 legged multi's get up.

Wouldn't disagree with you Lakey, was one of the easiest weekends on the punt I've ever seen, but in saying that 3 of my multi legs were nailbiters.

This week I will be laying the following

St Kilda over 39.5
Collingwood over 39.5
Wbd Under 39.5
Kangaroo's H2H (just think West Coast are woeful)

Might side bet Riewoldt for most goals of the round also.

Interested to know your thoughts,

Anyway, see how it goes, GL all

 

[maxlad]

adelaides line looks good, we dont usually lose by that much... $11 or whatever we are seem overs, but i dont think we can win, but ill put a tenner on it

 

[Rough_Edges]

If Freo get Sandi back which I think they will, +28.5 is good.

ATM

Dogs into Saints into Freo +28.5 @ $3.60 or so.

 

[GoodesStuff]

adelaides line looks good, we dont usually lose by that much... $11 or whatever we are seem overs, but i dont think we can win, but ill put a tenner on it

$13 on Betfair

 

[Cuzz09]

(centrebet.com)

Port 1-39
Essendon 1-39
Geelong 1-39

$10 @ $13.70

 

[Lensen]

Carlton at 5.20:

Beat the cats in the corresponding clash last year on a Friday night, at similar odds, at around the same time of year. Also smashed them earlier this year.

Freo at 4.70

No way do the Hawks deserve to be this short. I rate Fremantle about a 25% chance so would like a bit of these odds.

Adelaide at 11.25

Collingwood have shown to be a little shakey in recent times when they have been short priced favs. Lost this game against the Crows last year at the G in round 1, and were lucky to beat them in that Semi Final there too.

Bullies at 1.70

We wont win here, well at least I dont give us as much chance as the odds suggest. The dogs on the rebound and will be out to make a point similar to what Geelong did on Saturday night.

You've been reading my posts

My bets for the week:
$10 on Carlton @ $6.28 - totally agree that Carlton are overs. Won their last two vs Geelong - reminds me of the Saints/Essenodn game the other week. Happy for half a unit.

$10 on Freo @ $4.99 - again, agree that the Hawks are way overs. I expect them to win but not with 80% confidence.

$20 on Syd @ $2.18 - the Dogs have cost me a bit with me under rating them this year, but they were abysmal on Saturday night and I reckon there's something not right in that camp. Swans have been good for a few weeks and I like them on the postage stamp.

$20 on Melbourne @ $1.874 - I think Port are terrible and the Dees have broken their interstate hoodoo a few weeks back.

$20 on West Coast @ $2.097 - Eagles last roll of the dice for a win, North I don't like on the wide open spaces of Subi at all, and LeCras won't have two games that poor in a row.

 

[Cuzz09]

adelaides line looks good, we dont usually lose by that much... $11 or whatever we are seem overs, but i dont think we can win, but ill put a tenner on it

Adelaide line of +51.5 is cr@zy!!!

Never seen the Crows with such a big line.

I think they'll push the pies... They wont win but they normally play well at the G I agree.

 

[Cuzz09]

Carlton line +31.5
Fremantle line +28.5
Adelaide line +51.5
Port H2H
Essendon Vs Brisbane (either team under 15.5)

$10 @ $35(ish)

 

[adii_7]

Carlton line +31.5
Fremantle line +28.5
Adelaide line +51.5
Port H2H
Essendon Vs Brisbane (either team under 15.5)

$10 @ $35(ish)

they will kill us , watson might miss.

 

[Cuzz09]

they will kill us , watson might miss.

They are seriously sh*t...

Is Don Is good

 

[GoodesStuff]

You've been reading my posts

Just love the idea of always taking a team H2H

By looking at my records, it would have been more profitable to take an underdog straight out, then at the + in the long run. It just seems that a good team will run away with it, and meaningless goals kicked or missed before the siren are VERY ANNOYING when you take the headstart...

 

[mike262]

imo round 21 is an extremly hard round for punting.

Heavy favorites with no real value and alot of games where the underdog could win, or get smashed. too hard to predict. might keep betting to a min this w/e.

only real value i see is melbourne to win and essendon to win but it watson isnt playing i might leave it alone

 

[Davo75]

AFL Round 21

Port Adelaide straight out @ $2.02, mark it down, they'll win!

Depending on weather conditions, may take a punt on a long range forecast @ Launceston and the G Saturday night, if rain is forecast for either, perhaps Fremantle or Adelaide with the points start, but more than likely stay away from those two games.

Think Sydney are value, but not confident at all, believing the Bulldogs will hit back hard this week!

Didn't get heavily involved last week, and probably won't be this week either.

 

[d0gs]

Re: AFL Round 21

Sorry for the noobish question, but what actually is "the line"?

Would it be more benefitial to bet on the line or over and under margins?

 

[MaccasMillions]

Re: AFL Round 21

Port Adelaide straight out @ $2.02, mark it down, they'll win!

Depending on weather conditions, may take a punt on a long range forecast @ Launceston and the G Saturday night, if rain is forecast for either, perhaps Fremantle or Adelaide with the points start, but more than likely stay away from those two games.

Think Sydney are value, but not confident at all, believing the Bulldogs will hit back hard this week!

Didn't get heavily involved last week, and probably won't be this week either.

I am a tad unaware why Port Adelaide are a lock, Demons didnt look that bad Vs Hawthorn last week, they have multiple goal kickers and if they can get into space, they will win. Port Adelaide are attrocious, granted they beat hawthorn a couple of weeks ago, but our record vs them previously is not great. Lock in Melbourne.

Total agree with you on sydney, but dogs are a much better team then freo, therefore would think Dogs would also be another definite for the week.

As for the hawks game freo would be wise to rest a lot of their players for the match at subi next week. Heard quite a few predictions that they will come to Tassie, very depleted, much like St Kilda did last year

 

[jimmyclean]

Re: AFL Round 21

Sorry for the noobish question, but what actually is "the line"?

Would it be more benefitial to bet on the line or over and under margins?

Noob questions ftw! I can answer these.

Basically a line bet is very similar to a Head2Head bet.

I like to imagine a Head2Head bet as a line bet with a margin of 1.

So imagine this line is a representation of every score possible for last weeks Collingwood vs Essendon game.
Collingwood (Left side) vs Essendon (Right side)
--------------------------------------|-|---------------------------------

So for last weeks (rnd 20) result would have seen the win in the far left hand side
Collingwood vs Essendon
-x------------------------------------|-|---------------------------------

That line roughly in the middle represents a win for Each side (the - in the middle represents a draw).
Your bet in a H2H market takes either side of the draw lines.

For a line bet its basically the same except there is only 1 middle line (thanks to the the half a point margin used, you cannot score less than 1 whole point therefore it eliminates draws). The other biggest different is your betting agency decides where they want to put the line, using Coll vs Ess as an example.

Tab line (40.5pts?)
------------------|------------------|-|------------------------------------
The H2H bet is still at 1, but a Line bet moves the "Win" to 41 points in Collingwoods favour, essentially the TAB expects Collingwood to win by this much and any less is considered a loss.
If you bet on the line with Essendon, they can lose by upto 40 points and you bet still pays as a "Win".



Wow this came out more convoluted than I anticipated.

TLDR version.
One team gets a headstart and must win by more than the margin set(Line) , while the other team can lose by less than the margin set(line).

 

[DT_35]

I reckon Melbourne are a decent chance...I rate them 60/40 favorites atm. Port Adelaide are terrible, and coming off a slog fest against West Coast, they will be sore. But they are playing at home, against a melbourne side with a deplorable interstate record..will have to wait and see the teams

 

[Syd Kennets]

You've been reading my posts

My bets for the week:
$10 on Carlton @ $6.28 - totally agree that Carlton are overs. Won their last two vs Geelong - reminds me of the Saints/Essenodn game the other week. Happy for half a unit.

Geelong v Carlton is at Etihad Stadium people.

Not the MCG.

Last five matches between the two teams at Etihad Stadium...

Geelong 133-77 Carlton
Geelong 162-84 Carlton
Geelong 142-77 Carlton
Geelong 143-73 Carlton
Geelong 131-74 Carlton

The Cats play the Docklands ridiculously well.

 

[adii_7]

GEELONG-RICHMOND 23.00 high low goes pretty good this week.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Geelong v Carlton is at Etihad Stadium people.

Not the MCG.

Last five matches between the two teams at Etihad Stadium...

Geelong 133-77 Carlton
Geelong 162-84 Carlton
Geelong 142-77 Carlton
Geelong 143-73 Carlton
Geelong 131-74 Carlton

The Cats play the Docklands ridiculously well.

Good point, Geelong do play the narrower grounds (eg. Skilled, Etihad...) a lot better.

 

[Bayno82]

Crows line up to 53.5 now , wow thats a lot of points

 

[mike262]

Crows line up to 53.5 now , wow thats a lot of points

but still not enough to be confident betting on. having about 10 games in a row at mcg seems to be making the pies an even stronger team. I wouldnt be surprised to see a 75+ margin in this match

 

[rossi]

My early muli for the week:

Geelong win/Freo +28.5/ Adelaide + 53.5/ Port win
@8.68


I try not to bet on the crows but I think there's a good chance the match will be closer than 10 goals.