Average winning margin query

[Natman]

Ranga, you have misinterpreted my post. Partly my fault for the way I worded it. I wanted to keep the categories to 4 not 10 for 24 players, so I gave them rather blunt titles. The fact that 20 of our players have played 6 or 7 out of 7 games suggests we are stable and it's tough to get in. But some of the kids have been on the list since the 2005 season. And yes I understand some are project players and will take time to develop.

I could have had headings like, "Should have played more AFL at this stage, but the selection panel have strange ideas."

I am a huge fan of Thomson, Thomas and Krak. They can play at AFL level, but they haven't been given regular gigs, are in and out of the side, but go back to the SANFL and dominate. You haven't been here long, but if you had you would have known my opinions on these 3 in particular. For example last year by about this time in the season, I said an 18 year old Krakouer was as good as an 18 year old Bradley and 18 year old Wanganeen. I saw the other 2 live in the flesh at 18, saw Krak once or twice live and the rest of the time on the box, but I rate him that high.

What I was getting at, was ranking the kids and fringe players. Trying to see what stages they were at and what they have to do to go to the next level in their development. As I live outside SA I don't get to watch the SANFL, mainly thanks due to ABC2 cutting the Tuesday night replays, although my mate has a satellite dish and set top box and can pick up ABC SA and watch the SANFL at the same time as you guys in SA. But I can't get around there to often.

Whether we like it or not, 4 to 8 guys will be cut this year and probably all 4 rookies, given our history with rookies. It was more a list to mark were guys are at now, based on what I have read and what they might have to do for the remaining 15 weeks or so to stick around in 2009.

I wanted the opinion of those who have seen them play SANFL and if I have bracketed individual players with other players who have relatively the same performances, correctly. It wasn't about potential it was about what results they have achieved. If you don't like my headings then rank the players outside those 20 who have played 6 or 7 AFL games this year, into 4 or 5 categories. Call them what ever you like.

It wasn't a bagging exercise it was more a relativity one, more general theory than special one.

And this page will tell you how many AFL games each player has played.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/alltime/padelaide.html

REH - this is a bit off topic, but do you know where to obtain the info to calculate the average winning margin in AFL games over various periods of time and between teams - I would think that the info needs to be in a downloadable format to make it easy to calculate.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Re: SANFL Power Round 6

Natman if you know how to use Microsoft Access database software, or something equivalent, or know someone who knows how to use datatabase softwware then it is easy.

My mate D_One who has the odd post on big footy and helped me crunch the Port and other 15 teams crowd figures at the end of 2005 and in 2006 is a database software manager. He downloads the complete database at
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html

Using Access and then he makes queries and the data base is manipulated to give info about scores, margins crowds etc. He showed me how to do basic queries but I am very rusty. I have threatened this footy season that I would go around to his place and get him to give me a lesson of how to do it again. Once you get the jist of it its straight forward. When I master it I'll put some instructions on the OT board.

All the info you need is in this database. Just that you need the right software and knowledge how to use it to manipulate the database.

Give me 2 things you want calculated and he will probably do it in 5 minutes. Be specific about your query.

Also Kevin Taylor's Footy Stats Diary has a hell of a lot of info but you have to dig around a bit and know where to go. Here are some examples of the pages you can get from his site.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/footyworks/1base2008.html

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Matches/car-wce.html
look at the links for grounds at the top of the page and just under that is a link to all the games played between the clubs

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Matches/col-haw.html

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Special/Point2008-R00.html

Also this site is good for getting all the results and manipulating his database on screen. He says you have 40 viewing pages before it cuts you off if you aren't a member. But it doesn't let you register. If you use your allocation you can go back in a couple of days and get access to 40 more pages.
http://afl.allthestats.com/

If you want to do the same thing for the SANFL, spell check on the SANFL board has a SANFL database and can give you answers to most of your questions.

 

[Natman]

Re: SANFL Power Round 6

Natman if you know how to use Microsoft Access database software, or something equivalent, or know someone who knows how to use datatabase softwware then it is easy.

My mate D_One who has the odd post on big footy and helped me crunch the Port and other 15 teams crowd figures at the end of 2005 and in 2006 is a database software manager. He downloads the complete database at
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html

Using Access and then he makes queries and the data base is manipulated to give info about scores, margins crowds etc. He showed me how to do basic queries but I am very rusty. I have threatened this footy season that I would go around to his place and get him to give me a lesson of how to do it again. Once you get the jist of it its straight forward. When I master it I'll put some instructions on the OT board.

All the info you need is in this database. Just that you need the right software and knowledge how to use it to manipulate the database.

Give me 2 things you want calculated and he will probably do it in 5 minutes. Be specific about your query.

Also Kevin Taylor's Footy Stats Diary has a hell of a lot of info but you have to dig around a bit and know where to go. Here are some examples of the pages you can get from his site.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/footyworks/1base2008.html

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Matches/car-wce.html
look at the links for grounds at the top of the page and just under that is a link to all the games played between the clubs

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Matches/col-haw.html

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Special/Point2008-R00.html

Also this site is good for getting all the results and manipulating his database on screen. He says you have 40 viewing pages before it cuts you off if you aren't a member. But it doesn't let you register. If you use your allocation you can go back in a couple of days and get access to 40 more pages.
http://afl.allthestats.com/

If you want to do the same thing for the SANFL, spell check on the SANFL board has a SANFL database and can give you answers to most of your questions.

Thanks REH - detailed as usual.

What I wanted to know is the average winning margin in all AFL matches since we joined and then the average winning margin for just the PAFC in the same period - if it's in a DB and just as easy to do all teams, then that would also be appreciated.
If possible it would also be good to know the average winning margin in all AFL matches over say, the last 3 10 year periods.
If it's too much trouble then no problems - I will try to get the info as you suggested.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Re: SANFL Power Round 6

Natman I emailed my mate your questions. He may do the database crunching today or tonight.

I found this page at the All the Stats website giving the average winning margin for each year since 1897.

http://afl.allthestats.com/statistics/allseasmarg.php

Given this individual year info, the average margin for the AFL over the last 3 decades has been;
1977 to 1986 36.91 pts
1987 to 1996 39.71 pts
1997 to 2007 34.43 pts

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Re: SANFL Power Round 6

Natman this was D_One's answer

It depends on what you mean, as there is a difference between "average winning margin" and "average margin". The "average margin" of teams hosting interstate teams includes negative margins (ie losses) this turns out to be about 15 points.

There are 2019 results between 1997 and 2007 inclusive including finals
with an average winning margin of 34.5 pts

There are 2035 games (including 16 draws) between 1997 and 2007 inclusive
including finals with an average winning margin of 34.2 pts

There are 1920 H&A results between 1997 and 2007 (ie excluding finals)
with an average winning margin of 34.4 pts

There are 1936 H&A games (including 16 draws) between 1997 and 2007 (ie
excluding finals) with an average winning margin of 34.1 pts

ie the 99 finals have slightly larger average margins

 

[Natman]

Re: SANFL Power Round 6

Natman this was D_One's answer

REH & D_One - thanks for making the effort with the stats.

I want to compare the PAFC's result with the other clubs overall eventually, but on thinking about a number of discussions on this board, perhaps I should more closely look at our losing margin comparson as well.

It's interesting to note that IMO the biggest 'weakness' in AFL is that on average the recent winning margin of about 34 points does not result in a lot of close games and there has only been a slight improvement over the last 3 decades in competitiveness between all teams.

The weakness in AFL that I refer to is in comparison to the other football codes and the respective closeness of scores that they get and the sustained interest for longer periods of each game - but I guess that would be subject to wider discussion in another thread on the main board - if not already done.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

D_One set me the data for Port games so I put it in a spread sheet.

As at the end of 2007 Port had played 259 games in the AFL for 149 wins, 106 losses and 4 draws. Our finals results are 17 played, 8 wins and 9 losses.
---------------------
The 149 wins between 1997 and 2007 inclusive including finals have an average winning margin of 36.5 pts

The 153 games (including 4 draws) between 1997 and 2007 inclusive including finals with an average winning margin of 35.6 pts

The 141 H&A results between 1997 and 2007 (ie excluding finals) with an average winning margin of 36.2 pts

The 145 H&A games (including 4 draws) between 1997 and 2007 (ie excluding finals) with an average winning margin of 35.2 pts

ie the 17 finals and the 8 wins have larger average margins of 42.6 pts
----------------------
The 106 losses between 1997 and 2007 inclusive including finals have an average winning margin of 39.0 pts

The 110 games lost (including 4 draws) between 1997 and 2007 inclusive including finals with an average winning margin of 37.6 pts

The 97 H&A results between 1997 and 2007 (ie excluding finals) with an average winning margin of 38.4 pts

The 101 H&A games (including 4 draws) between 1997 and 2007 (ie excluding finals) with an average winning margin of 36.9 pts

ie the 17 finals and the 9 losses have larger average margins of 45.1 pts
---------------------
With respect to the close games we have a great record. For games decided by 6 pts or less our record is

Played 31, 20 W 7 L 4D
20 close wins 12 at Footy Park, 8 interstate
7 close losses 4 at Footy Park, 3 interstate
4 draws 2 at Footy Park, 2 at the Gabba

According to AFL 2008 page 821 it is the best in league history as well as the period 1990-2007. These results include 3 finals where we have a 2-1 result.

Year	Round	HorA	Team	Score	Opposition	OppScore	Stadium	Result	Margin	Crowd
2004	25	Home	Port Adelaide	94	St Kilda	88	Football Park	Win	6	46978
2007	23	Home	Port Adelaide	68	West Coast	65	Football Park	Win	3	37750
2001	24	Home	Port Adelaide	69	Hawthorn	72	Football Park	Loss	-3	30163

For results between 7 and 12 points

Played 25, 14 W 11 L
14 wins, 8 at Footy Park, 6 interstate
11 losses 9 at Footy Park, 2 interstate

In finals we have lost 1 in this margin, the Sydney QF by 12pts in 2003.
Prior to this year, the showdowns had 10 results in this range with us leading 6 v 4.

For results between 13 points and 24 points
Played 40, 28 W 12 L
28 wins, 20 at Footy Park, 8 interstate
12 losses 3 at Footy Park, 9 interstate

For results 61 pts or more
Played 48, 27 W 21 L
27 wins, 19 at Footy Park, 8 interstate - 3 at Subi
21 losses 5 at Footy Park, 16 interstate
Of the 5 losses at Footy Park, 3 have been to Adelaide and the other two to Bulldogs and Brisbane back to back games in 2006.
In finals we have 2 wins and 2 losses of 61 pts or more.

So a greater % of our wins compared to our losses has been 24pts or less.

 

[dreamkillers]

As per usual RussellEbertHandball your input is amazing and very much appreciated by supporters like myself.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

No worries. If Natman didn't ask the question, I wouldn't have hassled D_One who I knew had calculated a league average margin for travelling teams vs non travelling teams. Being a database manager he can quickly calculate the league averages for the 1997 to 2007 period. He ran out of time, so sent me the data in an excel spreadsheet, which was pretty easy to manipulate from there. A team effort all round.

 

[dreamkillers]

I understand the work from a database manager as I used to be one myself (but it was/is on a mainframe so the tools are a little different to PC's) and yes Excel can be amazing at what can be achieved with it with Access being even more amazing.

 

[Natman]

No worries. If Natman didn't ask the question, I wouldn't have hassled D_One who I knew had calculated a league average margin for travelling teams vs non travelling teams. Being a database manager he can quickly calculate the league averages for the 1997 to 2007 period. He ran out of time, so sent me the data in an excel spreadsheet, which was pretty easy to manipulate from there. A team effort all round.

REH & D_One - thanks again for the great effort, it is much appreciated.

Looking at the numbers in general we win games pretty close to the average AFL margin, but lose by about 3-5 points more than the average. I suppose this supports the theory that when we lose, we lose big time, but perhaps not as much as imagined.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Just a bit more on our history of winning the close ones and how that has gone pear shape this year.

From this weeks Footy Stat's Diary analysis of the first half of the season

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Daily/Diary.html#analysis

Port Adelaide

• Average score per game is 98.8 points (91.0 points per game same time last year).

• Average score against is 99.2 points (94.1 points per game same time last year).

• Port’s major flip this season has been in close games. Since its inception in 1997, Port has boasted an amazing record in tight finishes. By the end of 2007 Port was 52-24-4 in games decided by 18 points or less. In 2007 itself, Port was 8-1 in 18 point games. This year it is 0-5.

• Accuracy for – 55.7 (53.2 in 2007); accuracy against – 55.0 (51.5 in 2007).

• Scoring shots for – 26.1 (28.0 in 2007); scoring shots against – 26.5 (25.9 in 2007).