Betfair SP

[Duritz]

I don't think there's a thread discussing this and my search button is broken, so I thought I'd start one up. I've been watching - and using quite a bit - the Betfair SP product on Aus horse racing, and it looks like it has some promise, but my issue with it is liquidity, and I wondered if people had insight's on this.

For those who don't know what it is, Betfair SP is a guaranteed 100% final market calculated seconds after the race starts. Here is a link to an explanation - mods I hope this doesn't contravene rules, it's just easier than me copying and pasting a slab of info, people can click if they wish, etc.

The benefit of the product is that it is, as I said, a guaranteed 100% market (before your commission) but I am wondering just how liquid the market is. There's no way of displaying how much there is placed to back or lay on a runner at SP, so you can't work out how much your $X will impact the final dividend. As that explanation suggests, they take all the waiting backs/lays first then also attempt to match up as much of the remaining unmatched backs/lays from the normal betfair market, and the final BFSP price is calculated as a result. However, it's conceivable that just a $200 bet might bring a horse in from, say, $20 to $10, if the market isn't liquid enough.

If the market were highly liquid, then it'd e close to being the perfect betting product. Guaranteed 100% market and you can set an odds minimum... happy days. However, if you're crushing your div then it becomes worse than the tote.

Does anyone have info on this product beyond what I've described?

 

[Duritz]

For what it's worth, here's a comparison I did of BFSP vs BEST TOTE, over several months. The BFSP price assumes a take of 5% (the full amount, did it prior to the addition of the 1.5% take), so obviously the BFSP prices improve depending on what your discount rate is.The STD GROUP column is just 15 price groups that I broke horses up into, you can see the average of each price group in the column adjacent.

 

[Duritz]

Overwhelming response to the Betfair SP question... I have discovered though that you can find out how much has been placed on the horse at BFSP by clicking on it... I knew the normal figures were in there but didn't realise BFSP was too. Looking at it the other day at a Syd metro meet it was only about 5% placed BFSP compared to normal exchange. However they do match up lingering exchange bets at BFSP at the jump if the BFSP meets the odds required by those lingering bets, so that us a plus for the BFSP product.

It's an interesting bet type.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think its above most of our heads!

 

[kingston67]

Great table Duritz.

It pretty much matches my experience. I was laying at Betfair SP for a while with systems that focused on long shots. At best tote these would should show 30% profits but at Betfair SP prices they would break even or lose because the prices on roughies were so much higher than best tote.

When backing using Betfair SP it would generally be near enough or better than the totes but every now and then you would get an absolute shocker. One example was a race at Stawell (midweek) - watch my selection win with the totes paying $8.70 to $9.60. Rubbing my hands in anticipation I rush to see what I got at Betfair SP - $3.80!! Doesnt happen often but it is killer when it does.

Probably ok with the Saturday metros but depending on how much you are backing need to be careful of the provincials