- May 31, 2014
- 4,121
- 3,638
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Bit of a bugger about the dam burst, condolences to all families who lost loved ones but BHP is entering perfect storm territory, lawyers love this sort of thing, $18 then $16 is my bet.
BHP Any one game to pull the trigger?
- Thread starter Jammer
- Start date
- Tagged users None
BHP has got me very, very intrigued right now. If they hit the $18 mark, I'll pull the trigger. I'm no expert, but surely in 3-5 years they'll be much higher than that. As Dugdale2Dwyer mentioned, it's a perfect storm scenario right now.
Sub $20 I'll pull the trigger.
The bad news is out there so baring any more I can't see them getting to $17-18.
Buy under $20 and long term hold, is the play here.
The bad news is out there so baring any more I can't see them getting to $17-18.
Buy under $20 and long term hold, is the play here.
- Jun 23, 2014
- 1,728
- 2,615
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Annnnnnnd we're sub $20
Membling
Brownlow Medallist
Personally think there is a little bit more to go.
Non-commercial investor re-rate, bad cyclical iron ore price, possibility of dividend drop and likely law suits from Brazil...
Feel it is going to stay around this price for a little while
- May 31, 2014
- 4,121
- 3,638
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
low of 16.71 this week, wouldn't be surprised if it touches 14.00
Membling
Brownlow Medallist
Looking like no let up. Waiting for the false bounce. Factors such as Brazil, possible downgrade of dividends and the iron ore crunch will weigh on this one.
Long term entry at $14 methinks
Long term entry at $14 methinks
- May 5, 2006
- 62,726
- 70,017
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Unless you're me who said a year ago today that the price would dip below $20.
We're now looking at a share price we haven't seen since 2005, meaning all the share price growth from the last decade has been wiped off.
I don't know what the bottom will be but my guess is about $15, maybe even $10 if things get even worse (but I wouldn't bank on it). What I do know is that it's a stock that goes up quickly, so when the iron ore price does recover I wouldn't be surprised to see shares go from say $15 to $25-30 within a year.
JoseMourinho
Not A Manager
Also helps that in the mean time while BHP is low, it turns into an income stock. (with AUD being so weak)
They are borrowing to pay the dividend, good chance the dividend will have to be cancelled until commodity prices improve.
- Feb 2, 2009
- 2,165
- 5,695
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Divi will definitely be cut. I'm bearish on BHP and have been for months. I reckon this will get to $10.
Gotta ask yourself what is going to improve in the foreseeable future to turn BHP's tides. Currently a huge P/E at 37, with crap commodities prices. It's definitely going to fall once it formally cuts the dividend. Which it will do. No business model should include borrowing to pay a divi.
I think people are making the mistake of giving BHP a free pass because it's BHP which is fraught with danger.
Gotta ask yourself what is going to improve in the foreseeable future to turn BHP's tides. Currently a huge P/E at 37, with crap commodities prices. It's definitely going to fall once it formally cuts the dividend. Which it will do. No business model should include borrowing to pay a divi.
I think people are making the mistake of giving BHP a free pass because it's BHP which is fraught with danger.
- Banned
- #41
Went below 16 briefly yesterday before slight rally to 16.35
- Banned
- #43
You'd want to see them at least plateau before you considered jumping in, they're in a slow free fall.
- Banned
- #45
Why a recession, because of China's current strife?
China's slowdown could cause trouble all over, yeah. Also, low world-trade growth, problems with the EU, poor commodity prices, oil tumbling (petrol forecast to go -1.00 which is just awful for your Super if you're not ant-fossil), struggling EM's, etc.
It just doesn't look good in my opinion. What would I know though, I'm a 21 y/o student.
- Banned
- #47
No reason a 21yo can't accurately forecast based on the right information.
Super... I don't have much of that. My money is in real estate, not that I'm overly wealthy or anything.
Real Estate is something I'm interested in getting into when I'm older. My parents have bought 3 properties since the GFC and recovered well; 2/3 houses are in areas predicted to double in value over the next 10 years. Definitely a great place to hold your $ - good luck in the future with it all!
Macquarie are predicting a 7.5% RE decline early this year (another possible recession trigger), however experts have rubbished this, suggesting a more 'slowing, normal market' will trend.
Wouldn't purchase in Perth until 2017/2018 but when I do I will go big.
Wouldn't purchase in Sydney - TBD
Would only purchase in pockets of Melbourne where gentrification is occuring otherwise - TBD
Would purchase now in QLD in the south east, close to the train line, CBD and Uni or in the Brisbane/Gold Coast corridor
Don't know enough about the othercities/states
WA will drop 10 to 15% in 2016
NSW will drop 2.5 to 7.5% in 2016
VIC will drop 0 - 5% in 2016
QLD will rise 5 - 10% in 2016
Macquarie aren't far off in their prediction IMO and there is definitely a chance it does happen. If QLD doesn't pick up the slack and NSW and Vic fall a little more than my estimates it could very well see a national fall of greater than 7.5%.
- Banned
- #50
Sounds like a good time to get into the share market and short it.
