Analysis Blueprint

[foj1]

Just an example, basically apart from head hunting for what I consider specified roles (the 3 i've got in mind are small forward, Key forward who can relief ruck, and a '3rd' tall defender) I want us to hit the draft. Not interested in any poaching/trading.

Fair enough as long as you poach kids.
Omeara yes
GWS kids yes
Hrovat yes
Jong maybe
Johnson Kelly stokes no no no

 

[Darealrath]

snip

Great post.

If we have more than 6 list changes, which seems highly likely, what are your thoughts on upgrading McKernan and McKenna so we aren't picking too late in the ND?

I realise it would mean we have to make even later picks in the RD, but I'd rather speculate on rookies than main list spots.

 

[BrunoV]

Lots of solid posts here.

But let's not kid ourselves people.

We are back to square one again. Back to when Sheedy was let go.

Two coaches later we once again are in uncharted waters.

There's no Golden Boy to waltz in and give everyone a warm glow.

Not since prehistoric 1981 have the EFC searched far and wide to bring in "an outsider".

Rough seas ahead my friends. Stormy, windy $hit to plough through.

I don't agree. The list still has a seriously solid long term base. The people who have ****ed it up are almost all gone.

We can be the Dogs of 2016. We just need a coach who has the balls to turn his back on the boys club at the selection table and who acknowledges how the game is played post 2012.

 

[Shane Hird]

I don't agree. The list still has a seriously solid long term base. The people who have stuffed it up are almost all gone.

We can be the Dogs of 2016. We just need a coach who has the balls to turn his back on the boys club at the selection table and who acknowledges how the game is played post 2012.

Yeah..nah..we're not gunna be like the dogs with Melksham, Dempsey and Stanton running around.

 

[bombreys]

I don't agree. The list still has a seriously solid long term base. The people who have stuffed it up are almost all gone.

We can be the Dogs of 2016. We just need a coach who has the balls to turn his back on the boys club at the selection table and who acknowledges how the game is played post 2012.

Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but this is the exact opposite of what we need to do for mine.

What the Dogs did this year rarely happens. We need to just be s*** for a couple of years, draft some kids, de-list Ambrose, Melksham, Steinberg, Howlett & co, make some smart trades for young players, and continue to get games into our young blokes.

We have a strong young spine (Hooker, Hurley, Heppell, Carlisle (?), Daniher), but our players in their early 20's are probably league-worst.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but this is the exact opposite of what we need to do for mine.

What the Dogs did this year rarely happens. We need to just be s*** for a couple of years, draft some kids, de-list Ambrose, Melksham, Steinberg, Howlett & co, make some smart trades for young players, and continue to get games into our young blokes.

We have a strong young spine (Hooker, Hurley, Heppell, Carlisle (?), Daniher), but our players in their early 20's are probably league-worst.

Ambrose has just finished his second season of AFL. Jury is out on him for mine...
Heppell, JD, Zach, Colyer, Carlisle, Gleeson, Edwards and Jackson are all in their early 20's. A bit thin perhaps but i doubt league worst.
Get rid of Melksham and Steinberg/Pears. Hold onto Howlett for depth.

 

[eth-dog]

Would not touch Currie. Spud.

In any case there are two VFL players that I would definitely look at outside of the much talked about Brown and Hartley: Josh Porter (Werribee) and Nathan Gardiner (Frankston). I think both are KPF prospects that could partner Daniher in the future.

 

[bombreys]

Ambrose has just finished his second season of AFL. Jury is out on him for mine...
Heppell, JD, Zach, Colyer, Carlisle, Gleeson, Edwards and Jackson are all in their early 20's. A bit thin perhaps but i doubt league worst.
Get rid of Melksham and Steinberg/Pears. Hold onto Howlett for depth.

Ambrose is 24 now, he's in our bottom 5 every game he plays for us. I can't remember the last time he kicked a goal. He lays a good tackle once a game and it seems to ensure him a game the next week. He goes about it the right way (as in workrate/effort), but he's not in a best 22 for a team making the finals.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Ambrose is 24 now, he's in our bottom 5 every game he plays for us. I can't remember the last time he kicked a goal. He lays a good tackle once a game and it seems to ensure him a game the next week. He goes about it the right way (as in workrate/effort), but he's not in a best 22 for a team making the finals.

He played a couple of really solid games (two goals per game) early in the season when the whole team was still up and about. After that he went missing along with the whole forward line and half the rest of the team. How many other second year players do we have that are doing better?
FWIW i don't really think he is going to make it, but to give him a third year to find out is a no brainer. Talk of delisting him is symptomatic of the panic and hysteria that has taken over this board. The team got gutted by WADA and lost all it's big bodied midfielders. End of.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I have been barracking for the bombers for over 25 years.
We are lower than we have ever been.
What concerns me most of all is I do not see a plan for us to rise back to the top.
I do not have a great deal of faith with mr little, Campbell, dodoro, Craig and the other leaders at the club at present.
I think we need a complete overhaul.
An overhaul is not about spending money but becoming the most strategic football club in the AFL.
We need to accept two basic premises.
1. We are at the lowest point of the clubs history
2. We do not have a god given right to be at the top of the AFL. The days of the "big four" are gone.

Coaching and communication
We need to get a coach who can build relationships with players and has had a strong grounding on how afl has developed over the last three years. I believe we can cope with someone who can grow with the club but the candidate must be strong, resilient and experienced team success.
The two obvious candidates for me are Scott Burns and Stewart Dew
The left field pick is Cameron ling who I believe has the football nous and complete understanding of the modern game.

I believe we need a director of football who will also grow into the role and can mix a strong understanding of football with a well developed understanding of football administration to connect the two departments. I believe Neil blame has completed the role terrifically at Geelong and Collingwood. The clear candidate for this role for mine is Nick Maxwell. Nick would have the respect of the players, is a strong character and understands footy and has been working in admin. He would grow suitably into the role.

Our assistant coaches would be mark Harvey for his experience, hard edge and mentor role for new coach. Matthew Egan who should be defensive coach where I believe he has built a rapport with our back line. Leigh Brown has had a failed stint at Melbourne however he has been very good at Gippsland and I believe he is a much more rounded person and coach this time around.
I believe mark neeld, Paul corrigan and Marty Allison have shown some progress in player development. With the turnover of our list this area will be vital.

The List
We have a decent core to build a competitive side around however we have limited depth and need to inject speed into the side as well as the ability to kick a better score. Which would come with a much better game plan.

We need to accept some basic premises about our list development.
1. We need speed and elite kicking skills
2. We need to find a ruckman
3. We need to find another key position forward
4. We have not had an elite small forward since Darren Bewick
5. We have overestimated and held on to our players for too long in the past.
6. We are not a desirable destination in 2016

Changes
Dustin Fletcher- retired
Jason Winderlich- retired
Paul Chapman- retired
Nick Kommer- delisted
Elliot Kavanagh- delisted
Will Hams- delisted
Courtenay Dempsey- delisted
Tayte Pears- delisted
Jake Melksham- delisted
Adam cooney-delisted
Jake Carlisle- likely gone
I would punt on Browne and Dalgleish to have one more year to make it.
While Gwilt, Giles and OBrien provide a bit of depth with solid bodies.

Rookie
Kurt Aylett- delisted
Ariel Steinberg- delisted
I would retain McKernan, McKenna and long as rookies though long looks unlikely for mine.
There are whispers that baguley, colyer and Stanton may consider options.
Of the delistings Carlisle would secure us a first round draft pick between 6 & 18 and perhaps a young player.

Realistic Targets from other clubs
GWS are a goldmine. I would look to obtain Adam Tomlinson as my main target. Other players of interest would be Plowman, Bugg, Wilson, Sumner and Townsend. Tomlinson and the first three players would play for us every week. Our round two pick may jag Tomlinson if we are lucky. We may be able to secure a bugg or Wilson through trade or psd. Carlton would target GWS as well with Silvagnis intimate knowledge of the list.

Daniel Currie- north Melbourne
The best ruck an in the afl besides Lycett who does not get a regular game with his club. I believe we are better off targeting a currie over a free a gent such as leuenberger or kruezer as they would both cost a lot of money, take away salary cap flexibility and quite frankly probably wouldn't come to our side anyway.

Liam McBean- Richmond
Liam is contracted however he is not getting regular games and is very close to Joe Daniher and Marty Allison. Liam is still a couple of years away from having an afl rig but we have time. He is an immediate upgrade on ambrose as a tall high forward.

Nathan hrovat- bulldogs
Quality player who can't get a game in a stacked bulldogs midfield. Would play every week with us. I do not know Nathan's contract status however I do know players like to play in the seniors and contracts mean less than they ever did.

The Draft
I think we drafted well last year. It is difficult to argue with Langford, Laverde and McKernan in the rookie draft. We hopefully have two first rounders if Carlisle leaves and like paddy asks to be traded. We have holes everywhere in our list however I would hope we just get the best player available. I would like us to get Aaron Francis with our first pick. He is the best footballer in the draft in my opinion and a kid who can play forward, back and in small stints in the middle. If Aaron is gone I would think Darcy parish is a safe bet. Darcy reminds me of Tom Scully at Tac level. He has speed, accumulates the footy and can also win it. I love the way Darcy uses the footy.
If Carlisle leaves it old be terrific to secure Sam Weideman. My mail is Essendon haven't ruled him out at four and love his kamikaze attack on the ball. He is the closest I have seen to the brown dog running atound the tac.
With our other picks we just need to get the best available. I hope we focus on speed, kicking and some X factor. Take away Shaun Edwards and we are a boring predictable side. Some of my favourite X factors running around are Shane yarren, Daniel rioli, yestin eades and Blake hardwick. There is one or two I may be keeping quiet for the phantom draft!

2017
By the end of 2016 wada is hopefully a memory, we have a rejuvenated list, a stable young coach and panel and one of the best training facilities in the afl. We are playing exciting footy and bombers supporters are loud and proud once more. The hunted become the hunters.
Tom lynch, jaeger omeara and Jonathan Patton become our targets. We should be in a position to go really hard at a marquee talent. Lynch would be my first choice and he would immediately assume a leadership position at the club and take over the number 5 guernsey.

This is my blueprint. I am sure there is a lot that people would disagree with. I am interested in reading other people's ideas. It has been cathartic to have the imaginary control of the footy club I love.

I agree with most of that, especially the off field aspects. The club needs a massive revamp and culture change.

With coaches, I still think we'd be insane not to get a Hawthorn assistant in as senior coach, just because their methods are currently best practice and we want to be catch up with the pack in terms of coaching effectiveness as quick as possible. Ideally any new senior coach can bring in a group of assistants, in particular a forward coach.

With the list changes, those are changes I think will happen but only over the next 3 years. Shallow draft means we don't want to be looking for players too far in or we'll just be having the same mass delisting in 4 years time. In three years we could turn over half the list and with some careful trades might not need to pick a player deeper than the 4th round.

Trading in, I don't think we want to bring in too many players unless it is an area like rucks where we desperately need to get some more depth in order to be competitive. We have to be realistic, the club's reputation as a place to play footy has been trashed and we're seen as being a long way off playing finals so we'd have to pay a premium to get the kind of players who will be best 22 for 5+ years (look at who we have managed to bring in since ASADA, just fringe players, or washed up veterans). Not worth it IMO. Invest money into recruiting and development of young talent and back our ability to rebuild through the draft.

Trading out, players like Stanton, Baguley, Carlisle and Colyer wanting out should be seen as an opportunity as well as cause to have a long hard look at the way we do things at Essendon. We could end up with 5 or 6 picks inside the 1st and 2rd round if they all decide to leave which would be a fantastic platform for a rebuild. Along with Daniher, Merrett, Gleeson, Langford and Laverde we'd have one of the best young lists in the comp, with lesser lights like Edwards, J Merrett, Ashby and Kav playing supporting roles. It sucks losing players but I honestly think we'd be a hell of a lot better for it than if we offer overs to keep unhappy blokes on the list. Also trading out members of the 2012 group means we'll be less affected should the WADA appeal go against us.

If we don't **** around I'm really optimistic about the future of the club. We can see how quickly a side can build a seriously exciting list in the Dogs and the Saints. My only concern is that the backroom dealings with the coteries will lead to some stupid idea being put forward, or the clowns at BB launching a petition calling for something dumb that gains traction for some reason.

 

[BrunoV]

Yeah..nah..we're not gunna be like the dogs with Melksham, Dempsey and Stanton running around.

So we are in agreement?

 

[BrunoV]

Obviously you're entitled to your opinion, but this is the exact opposite of what we need to do for mine.

What the Dogs did this year rarely happens. We need to just be s*** for a couple of years, draft some kids, de-list Ambrose, Melksham, Steinberg, Howlett & co, make some smart trades for young players, and continue to get games into our young blokes.

We have a strong young spine (Hooker, Hurley, Heppell, Carlisle (?), Daniher), but our players in their early 20's are probably league-worst.

The last part of your post aside we agree too.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

1. Stop drafting sons/relatives os past champions who have zero chance of making it.

 

[hurlygurdy]

I agree with most of that, especially the off field aspects. The club needs a massive revamp and culture change.

With coaches, I still think we'd be insane not to get a Hawthorn assistant in as senior coach, just because their methods are currently best practice and we want to be catch up with the pack in terms of coaching effectiveness as quick as possible. Ideally any new senior coach can bring in a group of assistants, in particular a forward coach.

With the list changes, those are changes I think will happen but only over the next 3 years. Shallow draft means we don't want to be looking for players too far in or we'll just be having the same mass delisting in 4 years time. In three years we could turn over half the list and with some careful trades might not need to pick a player deeper than the 4th round.

Trading in, I don't think we want to bring in too many players unless it is an area like rucks where we desperately need to get some more depth in order to be competitive. We have to be realistic, the club's reputation as a place to play footy has been trashed and we're seen as being a long way off playing finals so we'd have to pay a premium to get the kind of players who will be best 22 for 5+ years (look at who we have managed to bring in since ASADA, just fringe players, or washed up veterans). Not worth it IMO. Invest money into recruiting and development of young talent and back our ability to rebuild through the draft.

Trading out, players like Stanton, Baguley, Carlisle and Colyer wanting out should be seen as an opportunity as well as cause to have a long hard look at the way we do things at Essendon. We could end up with 5 or 6 picks inside the 1st and 2rd round if they all decide to leave which would be a fantastic platform for a rebuild. Along with Daniher, Merrett, Gleeson, Langford and Laverde we'd have one of the best young lists in the comp, with lesser lights like Edwards, J Merrett, Ashby and Kav playing supporting roles. It sucks losing players but I honestly think we'd be a hell of a lot better for it than if we offer overs to keep unhappy blokes on the list. Also trading out members of the 2012 group means we'll be less affected should the WADA appeal go against us.

If we don't **** around I'm really optimistic about the future of the club. We can see how quickly a side can build a seriously exciting list in the Dogs and the Saints. My only concern is that the backroom dealings with the coteries will lead to some stupid idea being put forward, or the clowns at BB launching a petition calling for something dumb that gains traction for some reason.

Can't quite work out the flavour of your position. What stupid idea exactly are you thinking of people putting forward? If there is a difference of opinion out there, it seems to be whether we delist the likes of kav, Pears, Dalgliesh or whether we hold onto one or two of them. It's not exactly a massive gap in approach, particularly when you consider that we will have a raft of list changes either way. I'm happy with about 6 - 8 changes in the seniors and i trust the coaches know the relative worth of those under consideration. For example, I still like Pears as a Fletch replacement but i've had to come to the conclusion that my opinion must be flawed.
I actually think that we are in reasonably good position insofar as our path forward looks well defined and inevitable. A whole bunch of players reached the end of the road this year and we were able to have a really good look at them. I doubt there is much dispute among the coaching staff about who stays and who goes as they have had plenty of opportunity to assess them.

 

[VelvetSledge]

I'd like to know where all this talk of Colyer leaving has come from.

 

[BomberTime]

No Howe, No Stevie J... We need to get through the WADA rubbish and go to the next few drafts with our early draft picks and start bringing in some top end talent. We need to start playing an attractive, exciting brand of football again. Off field, have to restore the brand and top up the bank figures with some good decision making. Hopefully, in 2-3 years time we are becoming a more attractive destination club for trades and free agents.

I'd make a trade for Zac Smith as I think he would be reasonably cheap.

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing a future core team of:

Baguley Hooker ??????
Hibberd Hurley Fantasia
Parish Myers Colyer
Langford Daniher Z Merrett
Edwards ??????? McKenna
Z Smith Heppell Laverde
Gleeson ????? ????? ?????

 

[bombreys]

He played a couple of really solid games (two goals per game) early in the season when the whole team was still up and about. After that he went missing along with the whole forward line and half the rest of the team. How many other second year players do we have that are doing better?
FWIW i don't really think he is going to make it, but to give him a third year to find out is a no brainer. Talk of delisting him is symptomatic of the panic and hysteria that has taken over this board. The team got gutted by WADA and lost all it's big bodied midfielders. End of.

I personally don't think it's hysteria.

It sounds like you're reasonably happy with the list where it's at and are in favour of trying to turn things around as early as next year with our current playing group.

I'd rather go the path of St Kilda - trim the fat (and there's a fair bit of it) from the list and draft kids over the next few years. Put up with being ordinary for two-three years, then watch the next group of youngsters carry us to our next finals series, when guys like Hurely, Hooker, Heppell, Carlisle (?), Joey will be in their mid to late 20's and in thier prime.

 

[hurlygurdy]

I personally don't think it's hysteria.

It sounds like you're reasonably happy with the list where it's at and are in favour of trying to turn things around as early as next year with our current playing group.

I'd rather go the path of St Kilda - trim the fat (and there's a fair bit of it) from the list and draft kids over the next few years. Put up with being ordinary for two-three years, then watch the next group of youngsters carry us to our next finals series, when guys like Hurely, Hooker, Heppell, Carlisle (?), Joey will be in their mid to late 20's and in thier prime.

As such you are ignoring WADA as factor. You might be right and this time next year we might be looking to do a more thorough overhaul, but realistically that is the time to do it regardless. We can turn over a bunch of players this year as well as holding onto a few that will be helpful next year if we manage to turn things around. If we don't turn things around then they will be next on the chopping block next year. Put simply, we need two drafts to do an overhaul effectively.
This year 7 gone;
Dustin Fletcher- retired
Jason Winderlich- retired
Paul Chapman- retired
Jake Melksham- delisted
Nick Kommer- delisted
Will Hams- delisted
Steinberg - delisted

Next year if no turn around another 7?;

Gwilt - delisted
Adam cooney - delisted
Courtenay Dempsey?
Tayte Pears?
Elliot Kavanagh?
Browne?
Dalgleish?
NOB?
Ambrose?
Howlett?

In short there will be plenty to choose from next year...

INB4 i know Pears is already gone, i just don't get it that's all

 

[foj1]

Great post.

If we have more than 6 list changes, which seems highly likely, what are your thoughts on upgrading McKernan and McKenna so we aren't picking too late in the ND
I realise it would mean we have to make even later picks in the RD, but I'd rather speculate on rookies than main list spots.

I would keep McKernan and McKenna as rookies as it give you greater flexibility at the draft.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Can't quite work out the flavour of your position. What stupid idea exactly are you thinking of people putting forward? If there is a difference of opinion out there, it seems to be whether we delist the likes of kav, Pears, Dalgliesh or whether we hold onto one or two of them. It's not exactly a massive gap in approach, particularly when you consider that we will have a raft of list changes either way. I'm happy with about 6 - 8 changes in the seniors and i trust the coaches know the relative worth of those under consideration. For example, I still like Pears as a Fletch replacement but i've had to come to the conclusion that my opinion must be flawed.
I actually think that we are in reasonably good position insofar as our path forward looks well defined and inevitable. A whole bunch of players reached the end of the road this year and we were able to have a really good look at them. I doubt there is much dispute among the coaching staff about who stays and who goes as they have had plenty of opportunity to assess them.

Stupid ideas? Stuff like getting in another 'Essendon Person' as coach (or any other role for that matter) ahead of better qualified candidates. I don't have a great deal of faith in our club's ability to think like a business and put the sentimentality to one side.

Regarding the delistings/retirements, I get worried when it looks like people think removing half the list in a single year is a good idea. They need to be replaced somehow and we aren't going to find many best 22 players in the latter stages of the draft which is where we'd be looking if we have more than 6-7 live picks. Having said that I think the coaches will do the right thing and only delist a few this year on top of the retirements and trade-outs.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Stupid ideas? Stuff like getting in another 'Essendon Person' as coach (or any other role for that matter) ahead of better qualified candidates. I don't have a great deal of faith in our club's ability to think like a business and put the sentimentality to one side.

Regarding the delistings/retirements, I get worried when it looks like people think removing half the list in a single year is a good idea. They need to be replaced somehow and we aren't going to find many best 22 players in the latter stages of the draft which is where we'd be looking if we have more than 6-7 live picks. Having said that I think the coaches will do the right thing and only delist a few this year on top of the retirements and trade-outs.

In the past we have snagged the Essendon people because they were ahead of the pack and we wouldn't have been able to get them if we weren't "essendon". I don't know that we have ever recruited an Essendon person based on sentimentality, when they were not the best candidate?

 

[foj1]

Was Matthew knights in front of Damien hardwick a good decision?
You rate candidates on ability to do the job and pray you make the right decision.
No one ever says this but Peter Jackson fu##ed our club more than anyone.
Knights over hardwick.
Extend knights contract.
Big payoff to knights which necessitated getting hird.
5 year contract to mercuri
We lose 4 premiership players.
It's no wonder Melbourne haven't improved.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Was Matthew knights in front of Damien hardwick a good decision?
You rate candidates on ability to do the job and pray you make the right decision.
No one ever says this but Peter Jackson fu##ed our club more than anyone.
Knights over hardwick.
Extend knights contract.
Big payoff to knights which necessitated getting hird.
5 year contract to mercuri
We lose 4 premiership players.
It's no wonder Melbourne haven't improved.

Should he have predicted mercuris brother dying? We drafted and traded poorly during those years, that was the problem

 

[Old Campaigner]

In the past we have snagged the Essendon people because they were ahead of the pack and we wouldn't have been able to get them if we weren't "essendon". I don't know that we have ever recruited an Essendon person based on sentimentality, when they were not the best candidate?

There was that James Hird guy...

 

[hurlygurdy]

There was that James Hird guy...

You don't reckon Hird was hot property as a coach? Plenty of other teams would have had him that's for sure!