Brad Johnson: No Passengers Player Critique

[theone5]

BRAD JOHNSON
We have seen many Dream Team Gods over the years:
W.Carey produced some MASSIVE numbers during the 1990's.
J.Bowden has been ultra consistent for the past 8 years.
W.Tredrea had his purple patch from 2003-2005.
The Cornes brothers are also making their mark.

None of these compare to the stats of The Smiling Assassin though.
307 games with an overall average of 86.6 points.

That stat can not be beaten.

He has not averaged below 90 points a season since the new millennium.
However, this year, he is only averaging 79.9 points.

I drafted the dog from the start and his scores to date have frustrated me only to see a large quantity of coaches pick him up at a ridiculous bargain, frustrating me even more.
Ah well, it is all a part of the game.

With all this being said, i am still locking him in for another year with an average of over 90 points.

A few things may be against him though, such as:
- S.Welsh taking away his attention and delivery near goal.
- His ageing body catching up to him creating injury woes such as the hip issue this year.
- The pace of the game becoming even faster making it hard for BJ to keep up.

All sound and vaild points but nothing to scare me off his scoring ability.
B.Johnson loves being involved in the game.
The captain of the Western Bulldogs has an endless love and passion for his club and is the type of player that plays until the final siren, regardless of the result.
We saw this on the weekend with BJ having a huge last quarter as he knew he owed it to the team and needed to lift in order to win the 4 points.

I believe that his body is injury free but i can see his fitness and pace beginning to struggle with the younger and fresher bodies in the modern era.
Once the ball hits the deck, he struggles.

However, he will lift.

A proven gun, a current gun, and one of the top picks in the forward line.
If you had him from the start, like me, do not fret.
If you just picked him up, like most of you, do not fret.

Johnno is durable, consistent and made for this game.

 

[thebaxters]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

Here’s another way to slice and dice those stats…

I consider 70 a minimum acceptable score from a key DT forward. Since the start of his career, BJ has scored >70 228 times, only scoring <70 79 times (only 34.6%). He has scored 100+ 99 times, a whopping 32.2% of games played! Not to mention he has only missed 6 games in his career.

If we take the last 5 years (2004-2008), BJ has scored >70 83 times, only scoring <70 13 times (only 15.6%). He has in this time scored 100+ 43 times, a monumental 44.8% of the time. Nearly every second game he steps out, he’s good for 100+ (he’s actually good for 97 points for over 50% of his games over this period). He has only missed 2 games in this time.

This screams one word – consistency.

His durability means that once he’s in, he’s in. You only need to worry about fielding 21 players, because Johnno is a given.

From a DT perspective, those two things are worth there weight in whatever valuable substance you place currency in.

Plus the fact he is a forward, a position where the big names tend to start slow. Look at BJ’s first games over the last 5 years:
123
146
133
113
107

Spend the money up front and get BJ. Get your JB, Riewoldt, etc after they have dropped a bit to start with, but BJ will score you points from the get go.

I think he is a footballer’s footballer, would not be surprised to hear from the AFLPA that he was one of the most respected players going around. I wish there was more of the spirit Johnno plays four quarters within certain individuals in my team, I think most clubs do.

However, and this is where my opinion diverges from theone5, I’m not sure he’s 100% injury free. Was listed as having a hip/groin injury in Rd 2, then picked up a calf injury in Rd 3. He’s 32 this year, and there aren’t many players 30+ that are picking up points like BJ has been (R.Harvey being the notable exception, but he is one out of the box).

As far as I understand it, the club hasn’t really come out and said anything about the hip/groin not being an injury requiring management for the rest of the year. And when it comes to injury – silence speaks volumes.

I think there might be something niggling there, and his consistency (eg 100+ every second game) might suffer. Shades of Barry Hall circa 2007. I don’t think there is a chance he will be rested unless he gets to the point he can’t walk, as he will want finals as much as any Dog, and they are flying at the moment. Saying this though, I suspect that if the Dogs were 2 and 5, he'd probably be given a spell.

So, if the Dogs keep winning, I think Johnno will keep playing, probably averaging 80-85 from this point in. I think he will still have some 100+ games, but probably more of the <70 point games too. If the Dogs fall in a heap, he might get “managed” towards the end of the season, particularly if the hip/groin requires something more serious than rest (eg surgery).

Having said all that, I picked him up. Too good to pass up.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

If you didn't buy Johnson last week you have to jump on board this week. He has a proven record of consistency and has only been scoring bad because of an injury which he seems to be over. It is most likely he will be in the top 7 forwards so at a price of 330,500 he is an absolute bargain. He has a b/e of 60 which he is most likely to beat.

Next 4 Games: (pervious 10 games against opponent)
Kangaroos, 122 top, 58 bottom and 5 tons
Hawthorn, 143 top, 42 bottom and 7 tons
St. Kilda, 131 top, 52 bottom and 3 tons (plenty of 80's)
Brisbane, 147 top, 72 bottom and 7 tons (11 games)

Last 4 games against brisbane tons and 6 of the last 7

In summary buy now because it is not likely that his price will drop over the next 4 weeks.

 

[Walesy]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

One thing to consider with BJ, is that the Doggies will be looking towards their forward line moving forward.

And relying on a 300+ gamer who will probably be retiring at the end of the year could cause a huge reality bite next year.

I think that this changing gameplan, combined with their new talent up and the forward line, and Johnsons aging, injured body, is why he won't hit his dizzying career heights in his final year.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

One thing to consider with BJ, is that the Doggies will be looking towards their forward line moving forward.

And relying on a 300+ gamer who will probably be retiring at the end of the year could cause a huge reality bite next year.

I think that this changing gameplan, combined with their new talent up and the forward line, and Johnsons aging, injured body, is why he won't hit his dizzying career heights in his final year.

How do you know it will be his final year? Has he said this or are you just guessing?

 

[Walesy]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

crud. I just lost a big ol' reply.

um... in summary.

I pretty sure it was pre-season speculation based on the way they were trading.

Not just that though, but 3 of the "most games" holders in the last 20 years are Chris Grant (341) (Ret. 2007), Scott West (324) and Brad Johnson (307).

300+ players don't grow on trees, nor are they known too improve with age.

If anything, a team that doesn't plan for afterwards isn't doing their job right in my opinion.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

crud. I just lost a big ol' reply.

um... in summary.

I pretty sure it was pre-season speculation based on the way they were trading.

Not just that though, but 3 of the "most games" holders in the last 20 years are Chris Grant (341) (Ret. 2007), Scott West (324) and Brad Johnson (307).

300+ players don't grow on trees, nor are they known too improve with age.

If anything, a team that doesn't plan for afterwards isn't doing their job right in my opinion.

If Johnno's body holds up I would think he and Westy may play on for one more season but certainly not guaranteed. Plenty of speculation on the Dogs board about the next club captain but it's a very young list apart from these 2 and Aker so they may need the experience. Also, with half a sniff of a flag in the next couple of years this would be motivation to go on.

Back to the point at hand, Johnno's calf has stopped him pushing off to sprint so he has basically got no marks on the lead this year which has hurt. His better scores are when he has been rotated through the midfield plus that 1 quarter in Rd1. He is still well priced at the moment but I would not be expecting an average of much over 90 coming home. Age and injuries starting to take their toll. I have him and will keep him but am not expecting great things.

Still a solid trade in option at the value.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

If you didn't buy Johnson last week you have to jump on board this week. He has a proven record of consistency and has only been scoring bad because of an injury which he seems to be over. It is most likely he will be in the top 7 forwards so at a price of 330,500 he is an absolute bargain. He has a b/e of 60 which he is most likely to beat.

Next 4 Games: (pervious 10 games against opponent)
Kangaroos, 122 top, 58 bottom and 5 tons
Hawthorn, 143 top, 42 bottom and 7 tons
St. Kilda, 131 top, 52 bottom and 3 tons (plenty of 80's)
Brisbane, 147 top, 72 bottom and 7 tons (11 games)

Last 4 games against brisbane tons and 6 of the last 7

In summary buy now because it is not likely that his price will drop over the next 4 weeks.

By jove those numbers are impressive!

This was the first season I've picked BJ.. have picked Pav/Riewoldt ahead of him in recent years and sorely regretted it as the rounds went by. And this year I finally take him preseason and he has his worst start to the season in years!

Was never going to trade him out, I'm not sure he'll average 95+ like he has been in the past but I still think he has a fair few tons to give us. I'll hazard a guess he'll average close to 90 for the remainder of the season, which will put his final average at...around 85 (no numbers in front of me).

I'd be happy with that given his poor start.

 

[Crows88]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

I hate to say it but I know the Bulldogs club doctor and was spekaing to him about a couple of injuries I have at the moment. He says that BJ has a calcified calf and shouldn't be playing with it. He said he wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it through the year as he will have to do an operation on it at some stage he thinks. He also said Brian lake's hip is very dodgy at the moment and is in alot of pain.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news I have BJ also. I know you may think this is BS, but why would I make soemthing like this up. However, we all know physios and doctors don't like players playing injured and can exagerate about the severity of players injuries. It is interesting to think about though and reminds me why i must save my trades where possible!

 

[happy_eagle]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

I posted this on the main board regarding BJ

There is an old saying that goes a leopard never changes his spots, and i see this as the case with brad johnson. He has arguably one of the greatest DT players consistency wise, to grace the DT earth, and by looking at his figures, you would pick him in a heartbeat.

Averages
2001: 90.8
2002: 99.7
2003: 99.9
2004: 93.9
2005: 96.6
2006: 100.2
2007: 100.2

Just looking at those is enough for you to say yes in a heartbeat, although things have changed.

2008: 79.8 (to date of course)

Now, this is a situation that Johno has not been in for sometime, dare i say ever. Now the main thing that works in his favor, is the fact that his history shows that he can overcome adversity, but he is now faced with the following factors

• Age- He is nearly at the end of his career, and i would say that 2009 would be his last year. It is a common trend in AFL footballers, that as they come to an end of there career (ie robert harvey), there average in DT, starts to slide back down. They have there peak point, which is like the top of a graph, but then they slowly slide back down. The last 2 years, and johno's first 7 rounds suggest that he entered peak mode back in 05, and 06 where he averaged the highest. That says that he can still play some of his best footy at old age, as shown in 05, and 06. However with his start to the season, i think age, may bring it down to just below that 100.2, but still in good 90's range.

• Injury He has been injured, and not 100% for most of the seaosn.

Round 1: 124- Not Injured
Round 2:75- Received injury, wasn't as good
Round 3.4,5: Injured and shouldnt've played. averaged 56 (averaged around 60% game time aswell)
Round 6: 84- on the mend
Round 7: 114- Back to round 1 form
Round 8: 75- Mchparlin did well

Seeing as he is 100%, or close enough to average well, he should be considered

• New comers- This year, has seen new entries into the bullies forward line, With the addition of names like Hill, Minson, Welsh into the forward line, his scores are naturally going to fall, as there are younger option than johno to go to. The reason that his scores have been so high for so long, is because he has been the number 1 target down there in the forward line, and when it wasnt coming down there he would go into the midfield to get it. Well now they have other options in Minson, Murphy, hill, Welsh, and when he tries to go into the midfield to get it, he has to fight over it with the sudden resurgence of the dogs midfield with names like Cooney, Griffen, Cross, Boyd, Aker, Gianseriicusa (sp?). In saying that, im sure that Johno has had to handle with new comers before

There is just 2 of many factors that are changing BJ's scores

My Verdict: Keep him, if you have him., and jump on him if you dont. This guy is a DT star, and always will be. He will not average above his 102's from the last 2 years, but he will still average around 95, which is still good for a top 7 forward. The factors stated above, will be what bring his average down slightly. His poor games shouldn't be read into to much, as he only had about 50% game time in some of them, and was 70% fit.There is no doubt that once he finds his form again ,then the doggies midfielder will look for him more down forward, and you will all be laughing that you picked him up at such a bargain

Final Word: Keeper, should average 90+

 

[banana_bus]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

I hate to say it but I know the Bulldogs club doctor and was spekaing to him about a couple of injuries I have at the moment. He says that BJ has a calcified calf and shouldn't be playing with it. He said he wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it through the year as he will have to do an operation on it at some stage he thinks. He also said Brian lake's hip is very dodgy at the moment and is in alot of pain.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news I have BJ also. I know you may think this is BS, but why would I make soemthing like this up. However, we all know physios and doctors don't like players playing injured and can exagerate about the severity of players injuries. It is interesting to think about though and reminds me why i must save my trades where possible!

Is that Dr Zimmerman the guy with the massive mo! That guy is awesome.

Anyway, if this is true, I can see two scenarios; BJ playing out the year and retiring at the end of it, or BJ going in for early surgery. As the dogs are certain finalists this year, I highly doubt the latter will happen. He is a proud man and will move heaven and earth to play in a successful bulldogs team.

His form at the moment is still very patchy. He's missing easy goals, dropping easy marks but his last month has seen him push his average back up. Personally, his injury problems are too much for me to pick him up, especially with the plethora of forward options available.

Having said this Ive had him from the start, so my opinion probably doesn't count.

 

[Cat for Life]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

I don't care if he has one leg, BJ just knows how to score points!

 

[Crows88]

Re: Player Summary 10: B.Johnson

Is that Dr Zimmerman the guy with the massive mo! That guy is awesome.

Anyway, if this is true, I can see two scenarios; BJ playing out the year and retiring at the end of it, or BJ going in for early surgery. As the dogs are certain finalists this year, I highly doubt the latter will happen. He is a proud man and will move heaven and earth to play in a successful bulldogs team.

His form at the moment is still very patchy. He's missing easy goals, dropping easy marks but his last month has seen him push his average back up. Personally, his injury problems are too much for me to pick him up, especially with the plethora of forward options available.

Having said this Ive had him from the start, so my opinion probably doesn't count.

Sorry should've been more specific the club surgeon, Dr David Young. If i didn't have him already I wouldn't be getting him either...