Expansion Canberra

[MelbourneGWS]

Again blame Barr for the 10 year deal

Barr and the ALP are running for reelection October 2024. It’s open for people to make this a campaign issue if they disagree, but as far as I know the Liberal opposition haven’t even raised this deal at all. The main issues seem to be the Tram, the consequent opportunity cost impacts on health, hospitals, education etc as well as a “its time” factor

 

[Aussie in exile]

Barr and the ALP are running for reelection October 2024. It’s open for people to make this a campaign issue if they disagree, but as far as I know the Liberal opposition haven’t even raised this deal at all. The main issues seem to be the Tram, the consequent opportunity cost impacts on health, hospitals, education etc as well as a “its time” factor

Did Barr sign the last 10 year deal?

 

[speedpeck23]

I can't read it as it's behind a paywall, but there are two articles on The Australian

Brumbies locked in battle for survival

Brumbies’ financial woes should ring alarm bells at RA

I personally don't want the Brumbies to go anywhere. There's enough room in Canberra for three contact sports and they fill a good gap at the start of the year.

But if the Brumbies do fold, the AFL absolutely needs to act. Any void will have fans looking for a new team. We need to act quickly to make sure there's an AFL option for them.

Maybe the Brumbies are in trouble because Canberra is simply not big enough to support a stand alone team in a national/international competition. Raiders play in a basically 2 state comp. ?? Why does the AFL need to act quickly.....obviously the numbers aren't there to support Rugby ......AFL should just add another Giants game or two and see what happens.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Again your personal views that the Giants are not Canberra’s team. The Giants have always maintained that they are also Canberra’s AFL team, and Barr is happy with the co-location model. There is buy-in from Canberra due to the 21 year long term relationship, especially with the kids.

I mean this with all due respect, but go to the comments section on nearly any r/canberra or Canberra news social media post and your view will be in the minority.

The Giants get support as a way to support AFL, but the view that they are "Canberra's team" is a minority view.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Again your personal views that the Giants are not Canberra’s team. The Giants have always maintained that they are also Canberra’s AFL team, and Barr is happy with the co-location model. There is buy-in from Canberra due to the 21 year long term relationship, especially with the kids.

You cant be a Canberra team and and Sydney team at the same time.
You are either one or the other.
GWS should play all their home games in Sydney to build up their fan base there.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I mean this with all due respect, but go to the comments section on nearly any r/canberra or Canberra news social media post and your view will be in the minority.

The Giants get support as a way to support AFL, but the view that they are "Canberra's team" is a minority view.

Although I disagree, I fully respect your right to your views and contribution to this and other threads in this issue. The fact is Canberra has a deal till 2032 with the Giants, and the Giants have maintained that they are also Canberra’s AFL team. The Giants, ACT government and the AFL Commission are happy with this arrangement.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Although I disagree, I fully respect your right to your views and contribution to this and other threads in this issue. The fact is Canberra has a deal till 2032 with the Giants, and the Giants have maintained that they are also Canberra’s AFL team. The Giants, ACT government and the AFL Commission are happy with this arrangement.

That could change with a change of Government.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

Maybe the Brumbies are in trouble because Canberra is simply not big enough to support a stand alone team in a national/international competition. Raiders play in a basically 2 state comp. ?? Why does the AFL need to act quickly.....obviously the numbers aren't there to support Rugby ......AFL should just add another Giants game or two and see what happens.

At the moment there are only 3 AFL games in Canberra - we had 4 in 2022 to make up for the 2 games played in a Covid disrupted year.

I suspect what you propose would be how AFL will test the market, as going from 3 AFL games to 11 regular home games is a bit of a stretch - although I think what will happen is any AFL standalone team in Canberra will play 8-9 home games, and the reminder in southern NSW.

With Norths and Hawthorn (and presumably St Kilda) having home games to sell, the AFL can test the market for AFL games in Canberra by having them play “home” games in Canberra with the Giants as the “away” team?

 

[MelbourneGWS]

That could change with a change of Government.

True - but the contracted deal is till 2032 and would require all parties to agree. Elizabeth Lee’s Liberals have not raised anything about the Giants AFL deal as far as I’m aware about the $28.5 million 10 year deal.

 

[DEVO]

That could change with a change of Government.

I think the Greens have a better chance of winning the next ACT elections that the Liberals, and they seem happy with the current deal as well.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I still think the biggest problem with Canberra is that it's the Gold Coast for political professionals and therefore the market is not as big as the numbers suggest. A lot of people that live there moved there to take up a job with politics, diplomacy or defence and those people who moved there already grew up with another team and don't see themselves staying in Canberra for long enough to adopt the identity.

 

[DEVO]

See Canberra Pear - no one wants to support Canberra.

Firstly, I'm hurt and insulted that you would call me a no one, at least one person thinks of me as a someone of importance.

Secondly, I think I would be in the minority, and even if I'm not, I'm sure Canberra's supporter base would continue to grow as the city grows and later generations adopt their local team as their own.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Although I disagree, I fully respect your right to your views and contribution to this and other threads in this issue. The fact is Canberra has a deal till 2032 with the Giants, and the Giants have maintained that they are also Canberra’s AFL team. The Giants, ACT government and the AFL Commission are happy with this arrangement.

But it's not just my view, it's the prevailing view of Canberrans.

I completely get your desire to keep the status quo. If Port were playing three games a year here, I'd be pretty content, too.

But unless GWS relocate to Canberra, the best they can be is "Canberra's team" with a huge asterisk.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I think the Greens have a better chance of winning the next ACT elections that the Liberals, and they seem happy with the current deal as well.

Currently it’s 10 ALP, 6 Greens and 9 Liberals. This is probably going to be the same result for 2024 baring a strong independent push - each of the 5 (five seat) electorates need 16.67% to get a member elected.

Whilst there’s still 9 months remaining for the election, ALP would easily get to 10 seats and the Greens should get to 6 seats (with the students and younger voters in the central Canberra electorate Kurrajong giving Greens 2 seats there)

 

[Aussie in exile]

But it's not just my view, it's the prevailing view of Canberrans.

I completely get your desire to keep the status quo. If Port were playing three games a year here, I'd be pretty content, too.

But unless GWS relocate to Canberra, the best they can be is "Canberra's team" with a huge asterisk.

In the mean time playing games in Canberra is not helping them build a base in Sydney and are so dependent on away support.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Maybe the Brumbies are in trouble because Canberra is simply not big enough to support a stand alone team in a national/international competition. Raiders play in a basically 2 state comp. ?? Why does the AFL need to act quickly.....obviously the numbers aren't there to support Rugby ......AFL should just add another Giants game or two and see what happens.

The Brumbies are in trouble because Super Rugby is in trouble.

The sports chatter I hear at work is about 60% AFL, 35% NRL, less than 5% Super Rugby. Nobody cares about Super Rugby.

I would disagree that Canberra's not big enough. We have more unrepresented AFL fans than any other city. We're the centre of the Capital Region, which has more 700k people. We're the fastest growing state/territory, so that'll be about 800k by the time Team 20 comes in. Canberrans also have a median income 40% higher than Perth. We have plenty of people and plenty of money. Super Rugby just isn't a good product right now.

As MelbourneGWS mentioned, we've had four games in a season once. The result was a higher total attendance at Manuka than Giants Stadium, despite playing two fewer games. 2022 was a special occasion, and it stretched GWS really thin in Sydney. The only way Canberra could consistently get four a five games a year is with a Victorian team.

 

[DEVO]

Currently it’s 10 ALP, 6 Greens and 9 Liberals. This is probably going to be the same result for 2024 baring a strong independent push - each of the 5 (five seat) electorates need 16.67% to get a member elected.

Whilst there’s still 9 months remaining for the election, ALP would easily get to 10 seats and the Greens should get to 6 seats (with the students and younger voters in the central Canberra electorate Kurrajong giving Greens 2 seats there)

True, but the Liberals are on the nose in the ACT and have been for a while, their previous leader Alistair Coe was a little too conservative for Canberra and resulted in a swing of almost 3% against them in 2020 and I'm not sure Elizabeth Lee has done enough to reverse the trend, especially as the stink of former Senator Zed Seselja still hangs around.

That said Barr hasn't exactly ingratiated himself to the Canberra public over the last few years, focusing too much on the tram and ignoring other issues that are important to locals, for example reviving Tuggeranong which has been ignored for the last twenty years as Belconnen, the City and Woden have all had a makeover over the same time period and still going through major redevelopments now. I'm not sure there is an obvious replacement for Barr either in Labor, which could be a concern after the 2024 election.

That leaves the Greens, I don't think Rattenbury is quite on the nose like Barr, and the other Greens members have been quite sensible for the most part (The Federal Greens could learn a lot from their ACT counterparts), it's probably too much to believe the Greens could win Government, but if the trend from 2020 continues into this election, there is every chance they could increase the number of seats in the assembly.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I still think the biggest problem with Canberra is that it's the Gold Coast for political professionals and therefore the market is not as big as the numbers suggest. A lot of people that live there moved there to take up a job with politics, diplomacy or defence and those people who moved there already grew up with another team and don't see themselves staying in Canberra for long enough to adopt the identity.

I feel Canberra is becoming less and less transient. I fit into one of those categories you mentioned, and so do many of my friends, and the vast majority of us expect to be Canberrans for life.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

True, but the Liberals are on the nose in the ACT and have been for a while, their previous leader Alistair Coe was a little too conservative for Canberra and resulted in a swing of almost 3% against them in 2020 and I'm not sure Elizabeth Lee has done enough to reverse the trend, especially as the stink of former Senator Zed Seselja still hangs around.

That said Barr hasn't exactly ingratiated himself to the Canberra public over the last few years, focusing too much on the tram and ignoring other issues that are important to locals, for example reviving Tuggeranong which has been ignored for the last twenty years as Belconnen, the City and Woden have all had a makeover over the same time period and still going through major redevelopments now. I'm not sure there is an obvious replacement for Barr either in Labor, which could be a concern after the 2024 election.

That leaves the Greens, I don't think Rattenbury is quite on the nose like Barr, and the other Greens members have been quite sensible for the most part (The Federal Greens could learn a lot from their ACT counterparts), it's probably too much to believe the Greens could win Government, but if the trend from 2020 continues into this election, there is every chance they could increase the number of seats in the assembly.

Fair points.

1. Where would the Greens get the additional seats though? I think they will find it hard to get close to the 30% required in any of the other 4 electorates (other than Kurrajong) to get within range of the 2nd seat in each of them - hence difficult to see the Greens get more than the current 6 seats total? ALP should get easily get at least 33% in each of the 5 electorate, so they should get at least 10 seats and it would seem another ALP-Greens coalition after the 2024 election, with the resultant continuation of most of the current policies.

The only way i can see a non ALP government is if there is a strong independent opposition inspired by David Pocock, so that the 4th and 5th seat in (most) of the 5 electorates become a three cornered contest between the Liberals, Greens and the Independents. However, even with this Libs should be getting the 2nd seat in the southern electorate of Brindabella, and Greens should still win the 2nd seat in Kurrajong. The Greens only need to win a seat outside Kurrajong for there to be another ALP-Greens coalition

2. If Barr goes, I would have thought Yvette Berry would be the logical successor? Barr only needs to be Chief Minister for another 5 months before he overtakes Stanhope and becomes our longest ever serving ACT Chief Minister. I presume Berry as the current ALP Deputy is in agreement with Barr government’s long term deal with the Giants.

 

[DEVO]

Fair points.

1. Where would the Greens get the additional seats though? I think they will find it hard to get close to the 30% required in any of the other 4 electorates (other than Kurrajong) to get within range of the 2nd seat in each of them - hence difficult to see the Greens get more than the current 6 seats total? ALP should get easily get at least 33% in each of the 5 electorate, so they should get at least 10 seats and it would seem another ALP-Greens coalition after the 2024 election, with the resultant continuation of most of the current policies.

The only way i can see a non ALP government is if there is a strong independent opposition inspired by David Pocock, so that the 4th and 5th seat in (most) of the 5 electorates become a three cornered contest between the Liberals, Greens and the Independents. However, even with this Libs should be getting the 2nd seat in the southern electorate of Brindabella, and Greens should still win the 2nd seat in Kurrajong. The Greens only need to win a seat outside Kurrajong for there to be another ALP-Greens coalition

I can't see the Greens winning a third seat in Kurrajong, especially at the expense of the Liberals because Liberal Leader Elizabeth Lee holds that seat (although that would be interesting) and Labors vote is too high to lose their second seat. If I was in the Greens, I would be working hard in Ginninderra where the Liberals primary vote has dropped from 32 to 27% with the potential to fall further if they find the right candidate and the Liberals primary vote continues to fall.

2. If Barr goes, I would have thought Yvette Berry would be the logical successor? Barr only needs to be Chief Minister for another 5 months before he overtakes Stanhope and becomes our longest ever serving ACT Chief Minister. I presume Berry as the current ALP Deputy is in agreement with Barr government’s long term deal with the Giants.

Berry is the obvious choice, but I'm not sure if she has the profile or support to lead Labor and while Rachel Stephen-Smith has a profile, she has struggled a little with the health portfolio and only just snuck into the assembly at the last election. The other Labor ministers are Chris Steel and Tara Cheyne and they have only been in the assembly since 2016 so some may see them as a little inexperienced, but by the time Barr retires who knows.

I didn't include Mick Gentlemen, because I think he may be retiring at the end of his term.

 

[Bjo187]

The Brumbies are in trouble because Super Rugby is in trouble.

The sports chatter I hear at work is about 60% AFL, 35% NRL, less than 5% Super Rugby. Nobody cares about Super Rugby.

I would disagree that Canberra's not big enough. We have more unrepresented AFL fans than any other city. We're the centre of the Capital Region, which has more 700k people. We're the fastest growing state/territory, so that'll be about 800k by the time Team 20 comes in. Canberrans also have a median income 40% higher than Perth. We have plenty of people and plenty of money. Super Rugby just isn't a good product right now.

As MelbourneGWS mentioned, we've had four games in a season once. The result was a higher total attendance at Manuka than Giants Stadium, despite playing two fewer games. 2022 was a special occasion, and it stretched GWS really thin in Sydney. The only way Canberra could consistently get four a five games a year is with a Victorian team.

What industry do you work in, as that's a pretty impressive figure? One thing I did notice is the 5th quarter camp hosted in Canberra got barely any kids, they got more in western sydney about a month earlier.

Also are there any odds on the election? I couldn't find any online.

 

[Canberra Pear]

What industry do you work in, as that's a pretty impressive figure? One thing I did notice is the 5th quarter camp hosted in Canberra got barely any kids, they got more in western sydney about a month earlier.

Also are there any odds on the election? I couldn't find any online.

I'm a public servant, so I'd say at least half of my coworkers haven't originated from Canberra. But the coworkers originating from Canberra more often than not also lean AFL.

The odds of an LNP victory are slim. I would say the ACT is the safest seat in the country. Elizabeth Lee is the closest to a centrist the LNP have put up in a while, so she's their best chance, but I still wouldn't bet any money on them winning.

I would say an LNP victory would probably be worse for an AFL team. I think the money going to the Giants, and subsequently any future team, would probably dry up.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I can't see the Greens winning a third seat in Kurrajong, especially at the expense of the Liberals because Liberal Leader Elizabeth Lee holds that seat (although that would be interesting) and Labors vote is too high to lose their second seat. If I was in the Greens, I would be working hard in Ginninderra where the Liberals primary vote has dropped from 32 to 27% with the potential to fall further if they find the right candidate and the Liberals primary vote continues to fall.


Berry is the obvious choice, but I'm not sure if she has the profile or support to lead Labor and while Rachel Stephen-Smith has a profile, she has struggled a little with the health portfolio and only just snuck into the assembly at the last election. The other Labor ministers are Chris Steel and Tara Cheyne and they have only been in the assembly since 2016 so some may see them as a little inexperienced, but by the time Barr retires who knows.

I didn't include Mick Gentlemen, because I think he may be retiring at the end of his term.

Probably not the topic of the thread, but relevant in that the 2024 ACT elections is most likely to lead to the return of the current ALP-Green government, and there will be status quo in relation to the current government deal with the Giants

1. I think it will be Berry as she is the current ALP deputy, with both Barr and Gallagher being internally elected as ALP leaders after being Deputies. Even if it’s Rachel or Chris, they were part of the Barr government that signed the 2032 Giants deal

2. Agree Ginninderra is the weakest electorate for the Libs, although Klinkert will be running for the 3rd time and Cain has had good chances to get noticed in our Hare-Clark system where there are advantages to name recognition. Note also that Greens got under 13% in Ginninderra, so absent a strong independent it will probably be the same 2ALP-2Lib-1 Green in Ginninderra. This is probably going to be the same outcome in Woden-Weston based Murrimbidgee where Greens only got 12%.

Unless there’s independent or third party community alliances, with Gunghalin based Yerrabi strong for the Libs, and Kurrajong strong for the Greens, it does look like another ALP10-Green6-Lib9 outcome.

 

[Tigerlaird]

Painful to hear about how far Rugby has fallen in Australia.

We need to leave the Super Rugby and create a domestic competition ASAP.

 

[Walshawk]

‘Carrot and stick’: Bold bid to expand BBL and shake up Cricket Australia

A multimillion-dollar battle is being waged behind the scenes of Australian cricket that could change the shape of the men’s and women’s big bash competitions as well as the ownership of cricket in Australia.

www.theage.com.au

ACT pushing hard for a BBL team. That would obviously strengthen any case for Manuka upgrades.