List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[Sheephead]

This draft is very deep. The Top 8 are said to be elite, but the rest of the Top 20-25 are said to be very solid. The ideal scenario for us would be to trade down and send 1 for 3/6. Saints also should trade down sending 4 to ADE for 8/13 to allow them to access the SA top kids. We then pull a swiftly and then trade 3 to Port for 5/10 to help them re-jump ADE and get Lukosius. Go in with picks 5/6/10. With the focus on Walsh and the Top 4 kids I see it falling like this.

1-Walsh GC (Obvious)
2-M.King GC (GCS need a KP to cover the loss of Lynch and May. Can’t afford to waste on SA products)
3-Lukosius PA (Could take Rankine to replace Wingard, but need big mobile forwards)
4-Rankine ADE (Both parties said to be interested)
5-Smith CAR (Elite mid)
6-Rozee CAR (Versatile player who visited club recently)
7-B.King WBD (Need KPD bad)
8-Caldwell STK (Bull mid and have another good pick at 13)
9-Jones GWS (Said to be targeting same along with Clark who they can take at 11)
10-Hill CAR (Elite Sml Fwd/Mid at U/16, injured at U/18)

Walsh or Smith/Rozee/Hill??? 3 top line mids with 2 that can kick goals.

Could even trade 10 to ADE (Hately) for 16/21 and take Williams and Sturt. Mobile ruck and a Breust type.

Whatever we do - trading down in this draft will reap rewards.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

I have been reading this thread for a few months and loving the debate as a long time faithful Carlton supporter. This post is the first one that really motivated me to gave an opinion as I know that we are really all just amateurs at the level of our perspective of this years draft pool.

Being a mindset empowerment coach personally and seeing the results I have seen in my personal life over the last few years and knowing how powerful belief is, I just had to sign up and make a point on this post.

At which point did this club believe it was unlucky? Up until 1995 we were the most successful club in the history of the game. This was due to a belief within the club and its faithful supporter base
After this time, arrogance took over from genuine belief and club power brokers made some poor decisions and then believed they could dig themselves out of the mire by buying their way out but the game had changed and that set us back further. Then they made decisions out of fear to get us back to the top in haste rather than having patience which included dumping Ratten who up until his sacking had a similar record/trajectory of success - as Thompson did at Geelong just before his bear sacking at Geelong in their 07 premiership year.

But since SOS cane on board and Bolton took over as Coach, we have made so many positive and bold decisions. Not every one has been the best but the strike rate is solid. We have young quality across every line now and although there are holes, there’s not many. Imagine we had as good a run with injuries last year as Tigers. Where would we have finished? 14th? Maybe as high as 10th. I personally see us a sneaky chance to finish at just in top 8 and surprise and with a good run with injuries but with our list improvements and hypothetically similar injuries to 2018, we finish 12 -15th worst case.
Luck is crap, no such thing. We made our own luck for 100 years and won the big games while the Pies watched the Colliwbbles and cried about being hard done by (and still did this year). We have made mistakes for nearly 20 years and just started getting it right for the past 3.

We are in a win-win right now. Walsh will be great. That’s a win. If we trade and get 3/6 and end up with any of the other combinations suggested in other posts, that’s a win too because this draft has some real quality of depth. If we trade 1st pick and next year’s first for 2&3 this year that will be a win too.

The reality is that the arrogance has gone now and the true Navy Blues Belief and resilience has returned. The look in SOS and Bolten’s Eyes is the same as the look of successful entrepreneurs I have studied. We won’t win every year from 2020 onwards, but we will have a list that will compete in the top group of clubs for a decade and we will win at least one and potentially more.
Belief makes luck

Can you post more pls. Thanks.

 

[BlueView]

Yeah that because you are... Me too.
Who did we draft that year?

Luke Livingston
Trent Sporn
Simon Wiggins
Ian Prendergast
Jimmy Plunkett

Wiggins was the shining light

 

[Dravid's in]

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Hello they are not getting our next years firstend of story it is pick 1 for 3&6 that's it no future first involved.

Agreed, 1 for 3 and 6 or no deal.

Normally, you'd say that GC would be crazy to trade two first rounders for one - but if they were to trade, it would be upwards, not down. They've already been down the path of stockpiling high picks through the compromised drafts, and failed dismally. Although it's unlikely to happen, you could possibly see them trading up to select the players they feel they need in their rebuild, rather than what's available. Picks 1 and 2 would give them that option.

That's why they would love a Walsh....they've lost their leaders in Lynch and May, and have the option of acquiring a 200 game future captain....along with a key forward/defender such as one of the King boys.

Blues in a better position. Our list is more advanced than GC, and stockpiling/developing more top end talent would work in our favour. I reckons SOS would jump at the chance - he's already been able to trade in young talent - we now have more first round draft picks than any other team in the AFL...adding a Lukosius and Smith/Rozee just adds to the young talent we already have on our list.

 

[ferrisb]

At which point did this club believe it was unlucky? Up until 1995 we were the most successful club in the history of the game. This was due to a belief within the club and its faithful supporter base
After this time, arrogance took over from genuine belief and club power brokers made some poor decisions and then believed they could dig themselves out of the mire by buying their way out but the game had changed and that set us back further. Then they made decisions out of fear to get us back to the top in haste rather than having patience which included dumping Ratten who up until his sacking had a similar record/trajectory of success - as Thompson did at Geelong just before his bear sacking at Geelong in their 07 premiership year.

But since SOS cane on board and Bolton took over as Coach, we have made so many positive and bold decisions. Not every one has been the best but the strike rate is solid. We have young quality across every line now and although there are holes, there’s not many. Imagine we had as good a run with injuries last year as Tigers. Where would we have finished? 14th? Maybe as high as 10th. I personally see us a sneaky chance to finish at just in top 8 and surprise and with a good run with injuries but with our list improvements and hypothetically similar injuries to 2018, we finish 12 -15th worst case.
Luck is crap, no such thing. We made our own luck for 100 years and won the big games while the Pies watched the Colliwbbles and cried about being hard done by (and still did this year). We have made mistakes for nearly 20 years and just started getting it right for the past 3.

We are in a win-win right now. Walsh will be great. That’s a win. If we trade and get 3/6 and end up with any of the other combinations suggested in other posts, that’s a win too because this draft has some real quality of depth. If we trade 1st pick and next year’s first for 2&3 this year that will be a win too.

The reality is that the arrogance has gone now and the true Navy Blues Belief and resilience has returned. The look in SOS and Bolten’s Eyes is the same as the look of successful entrepreneurs I have studied. We won’t win every year from 2020 onwards, but we will have a list that will compete in the top group of clubs for a decade and we will win at least one and potentially more.
Belief makes luck

Doesn't quite have the same ring to it .....





Inb4 someone points out it's 'Do I' not Do YOU feel lucky'. Misquoted for convenience.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Rambling.

Carlton shouldn't trade down to get Luko and Rozee because they might go home to SA later.
But GC should expect a sweetener in a 1 for 3 and 6 deal, because why would they give up two top 10 picks for 1?

Which is it, then? Neither club can afford players that will bail in a couple of years - so is Pick 1 worth more or less than Picks 3 and 6, cause it can't be both.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I can see SOS pulling a huge suprise by Passing at Pick #1.

 

[La Dispute]

I can’t get behind this argument at all. The level of certainty reporters talk up Walsh, while simultaneously dismissing our need to bring in multiple top end players is bizarre.

No doubt we need midfielders, but we’re under duress all over the ground. There’s a huge overestimation of what Walsh will do in the next few years, and the reality is he’s a skinny 18 year old kid transitioning into AFL, which is a huge step up from TAC cup. If we wanted a more readymade mid we’d take Smith.

 

[dlb99]

I can see SOS pulling a huge suprise by Passing at Pick #1.

We got plenty of talent now, we don't need no stinking pick 1

Great post, genuine LOL.

 

[La Dispute]

I just don’t think anyone expects us to be audacious. We’ve taken the most painfully obvious first-round selections in each draft since 2015, and I think most underestimate the impact of backing ourselves and taking a considered risk. We’ve got an opportunity to really announce ourselves and build a ridiculous core group going forward.

What looks better in this equation?

Cripps, Dow, Fisher, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, O’Brien, SPS, McGovern, Marchbank, Walsh

Or

Cripps, Dow, Fisher, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, O’Brien, SPS, McGovern, Marchbank, Rozee, Smith

I think the ‘illusion of safety’ works perfectly here

 

[GT619]

I can see SOS pulling a huge suprise by Passing at Pick #1.

Like what

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I just don’t think anyone expects us to be audacious. We’ve taken the most painfully obvious first-round selections in each draft since 2015, and I think most underestimate the impact of backing ourselves and taking a considered risk. We’ve got an opportunity to really announce ourselves and build a ridiculous core group going forward.

What looks better in this equation?

Cripps, Dow, Fisher, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, O’Brien, SPS, McGovern, Marchbank, Walsh

Or

Cripps, Dow, Fisher, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, O’Brien, SPS, McGovern, Marchbank, Rozee, Smith

I think the ‘illusion of safety’ works perfectly here

I'm not sure we really have.
Weitering yes. McKay was somewhat of a risk. He had produced very little. We also apparently took a punt that Adelaide weren't going to take Curnow which imo was a huge risk.
Not a first rounder but an early pick of Cuningham over Dunkley wasn't obvious and we were probably searching for upside.
SPS over Brodie was probably abit to do with upside, Dow over Cerra and LDU likewise. None I think were really obvious picks.
Walsh is the obvious pick now but that's only because we haven't been offered 3 and 6 in any sort of deal. if a trade was to happen GC would be taking the much bigger risk, not us.

 

[BluStreak]

Just on comments about SA players bailing after initial contract. You just know that if it was to occur that way for GC then the AFL would compensate them quickly.

 

[RoyalParade]

What I do agree with, is that if we trade down, it won't be for 3 and 6. It will be for 2 and 3 minimum.

 

[Aphrodite]

Like what

Wooooshhhh

 

[bmaurizio]

Rambling.

Carlton shouldn't trade down to get Luko and Rozee because they might go home to SA later.
But GC should expect a sweetener in a 1 for 3 and 6 deal, because why would they give up two top 10 picks for 1?

Which is it, then? Neither club can afford players that will bail in a couple of years - so is Pick 1 worth more or less than Picks 3 and 6, cause it can't be both.

Because GCS picks 2 & 3 are flight risks, they won’t be able to retain them can.
Image the shock for a couple of teenagers like Lukosuis and Rankine moving from an AFL crazed SA state where they are revered as future champions close to family and friends playing footy on the Sunshine Coast in a struggling team? it would be such a disillusionment and disappointment no way would they remain.
Walsh a natural leader on the other hand has already pledge his allegiance to whichever team selects him and will be an elite footballer.
Very obvious choice for Cameron.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Because GCS picks 2 & 3 are flight risks, they won’t be able to retain them can.
Image the shock for a couple of teenagers like Lukosuis and Rankine moving from an AFL crazed SA state where they are revered as future champions close to family and friends playing footy on the Sunshine Coast in a struggling team? it would be such a disillusionment and disappointment no way would they remain.
Walsh a natural leader on the other hand has already pledge his allegiance to whichever team selects him and will be an elite footballer.
Very obvious choice for Cameron.

Correct, so you're in the "Pick 1 for Picks 3 and 6 is a good deal for Gold Coast" camp.

Which is half the opinion of the journalist responsible for that mess. Though he also thinks they should get our future first as well.

The other half of his opinion is that the trade is a poor one for Carlton because of said "flight risk". But despite it being a poor trade, we should chuck in our future first to make it fair for GC...

He's all over the shop.

 

[4thchicken]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...p/news-story/e2be2b94206bb7423e5324e15d81b764
178cm in under 16s, now 191/193cm - quite a similar growth spurt to Cripps.

Any interest? Where is Collier-dawkins expected to be picked up? - Perhaps Blues 2019 1st -> GWS pick 11 + GWS 2019 1st?

 

[murphster]

Luko and Rozee touring Carlton was a big throw off bluff to make the others think that's who we would take if we got 3 & 6 which it isn't imo. We would take Rankine & Smith which is what we need not the other 2, total case of disinformation on our part and very smart as it ramps up the pressure on the other clubs and gives us the best chance of getting what we really want. If it works we will be the big winners from the draft if not we still end up with Walsh it is a win win situation for us and puts us in the box seat. Or if we get to pick six and Rozee is still there Adel will want to trade with us to get Rozee and we can get at a minimum 8 & 13 out of them for 6. Win win win in that scenario. We are in an enviable position for this draft and really will struggle to lose.

 

[Blue__Balls]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...p/news-story/e2be2b94206bb7423e5324e15d81b764
178cm in under 16s, now 191/193cm - quite a similar growth spurt to Cripps.

Any interest? Where is Collier-dawkins expected to be picked up? - Perhaps Blues 2019 1st -> GWS pick 11 + GWS 2019 1st?

Don't think we need him.

Cripps and Setterfield give us some good size through the midfield. If RCD was a "sure thing" then we might be inclined to have a dip, but he's firmly in the "potential" camp, in that he's got some similarities to Cripps and Oliver, but he's got a looooong way to go to show he's of the same calibre. Draft range looks like being mid teens (12-18).

A lot of risk in that proposed trade. Future Pick 3 for Collier-Dawkins and future Pick 16? Yikes.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Luko and Rozee touring Carlton was a big throw off bluff to make the others think that's who we would take if we got 3 & 6 which it isn't imo. We would take Rankine & Smith which is what we need not the other 2, total case of disinformation on our part and very smart as it ramps up the pressure on the other clubs and gives us the best chance of getting what we really want. If it works we will be the big winners from the draft if not we still end up with Walsh it is a win win situation for us and puts us in the box seat. Or if we get to pick six and Rozee is still there Adel will want to trade with us to get Rozee and we can get at a minimum 8 & 13 out of them for 6. Win win win in that scenario. We are in an enviable position for this draft and really will struggle to lose.

Reckon you'll find the deal there would be more likely along the lines of 8 and 21, or maaaaaybe 8 and 16. Not that there's an issue with that. Though I doubt Smith lasts to 8 - depends who WB like at 7.

1 for 3 and 6.
6 for 8 and 21.

1 - Walsh
2 - Luko
3 - Rankine
4 - King
5 - King
6 - Rozee
7 - Smith
8 - Caldwell/Jones/Clark
|
21 - Stocker/Butters/McHenry/Sturt/Taylor/Hill

I'm not sure how much I like it.

Rankine + Caldwell + Stocker looks alright, but I think Rankine + Smith looks better.

 

[dlb99]

Image the shock for a couple of teenagers like Lukosuis and Rankine moving from an AFL crazed SA state where they are revered as future champions close to family and friends playing footy on the Sunshine Coast in a struggling team? it would be such a disillusionment and disappointment no way would they remain.
Walsh a natural leader on the other hand has already pledge his allegiance to whichever team selects him and will be an elite footballer.
Very obvious choice for Cameron.

Did he bend the knee to King Joffrey as well?
All pre-draft motherhood statements mean nothing.

Geelong will be into Sam Walsh every single day he is at the Gold Coast. If GC are a rubbish side in 2 or 3 years, all bets are off.

Walsh just as much a flight risk as O'Meara, Castagna, Lynch, May, etc etc.

 

[HARKER]

Shifter on SEN when asked who he'd take at one. Couldn't split Max King & Walsh.

Said he liked Blakey, Lukosius, Rankine and Ben King

 

[The Dominator7]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...p/news-story/e2be2b94206bb7423e5324e15d81b764
178cm in under 16s, now 191/193cm - quite a similar growth spurt to Cripps.

Any interest? Where is Collier-dawkins expected to be picked up? - Perhaps Blues 2019 1st -> GWS pick 11 + GWS 2019 1st?

He's the intriguing player of this draft for me (and my limited viewing)...about 8-17 range

• 193cm explosive inside mid - grown from 178 zippy outside-ish mid in last couple of years...how big does he end up being??
• Not high production which is something you'd normally want for an U18 mid, but did have some bigger posse games later in season from memory and still learning to use his bigger frame
• Got beat by 50m (10 sec) by Rankine, whose endurance has been questioned, in the 2km time trial at the combine, but not seen as lazy or having attitude issues

Reckon which ever club gets him it will take a couple of years (i.e. I Don't reckon he starts day 1 like a Walsh, Rankine, Luko or a Smith) but he could be best in draft (Cripps like)

What about some of our live watchers TerryWallet The Smoking Gun ...any insight here?