Analysis Centre Clearances

[tesselate_]

As you can see below, we're currently ranked 16th for centre clearance differentials:

I want to bring your attention to the average differential: -1.57

If you look at our centre clearances in our losses this year:
8-15 v Adelaide (-7)
8-16 v Geelong (-8)
13-18 v Richmond (-5)
10-15 v Fremantle (-5)
14-9 v Hawthorn (+5)
8-12 v Port Adelaide (-4)

In our losses, we average a centre clearance differential of -4.0, which is more than double our overall average differential. In most of our losses, our opponents have a period where they pile on an avalance of goals, a momentum that we struggle to quell, eg: first quarter vs. Geelong, second quarter vs. Richmond, and of course, the first quarter tonight. How much of an effect does losing these centre clearances and conceding a defensive fifty entry immediately after conceding a goal have on opposition momentum?
When we do win the centre clearances, we're currently top 4 for converting that into the winning the match:

i.e, we've won the centre clearances in 4 matches, and only lost one of those matches (The Hawthorn game, incidentally).

I thoroughly believe centre clearances is the area we must improve on if we're to go to another level.
I hope to generate some discussion about why we aren't winning these clearances. It really baffles me: we're a very good stoppage team, we lead the competition for average contested possessions and according to the AFL website, we're 12th for centre bounce hitout differentials. What do you think is the solution? Is it structures? Do the players not synchronise well enough with Witts and Grundy, and fail to read the taps? Or do we just lack players who can get separation in a stoppage?

 

[Kappa]

Pendles and Adams are our only good players at centre clearances, we severely lack quality midfield depth.

 

[tesselate_]

As an aside, West Coast have won 7 from 8 when they've won the centre clearances, and their differential is much greater than ours, next week doesn't bode well...

 

[Bard]

Pendles and Adams are our only good players at centre clearances, we severely lack quality midfield depth.

And Crisp.

I'd say it comes down to our ruckmen tbh. They're both pretty awful in the centre square.

 

[tesselate_]

Pendles and Adams are our only good players at centre clearances, we severely lack quality midfield depth.

This is something I am trying to grapple with. In most of our games, the opposition has one or two star players who puts up relatively huge centre clearance numbers. If you look at our CC breakdown by player in each loss, and compare it to the numbers of some opposition players in the same game:

v Adelaide (HitOuts 40-38)
2 Swan
2 Marley
1 Broomhead
1 Pendlebury
1 Adams
1 Blair
(Incidentally, Danger got 4)

v Geelong (HitOuts 46-21)
2 Swan
2 Crisp
2 Witts
1 Broomhead
1 Adams
(5 Selwood)

v Richmond (HitOuts 33-43)
5 Adams
3 Swan
2 Crisp
1 Seedsman
1 Blair
1 Witts
(6 Martin, 4 Cotchin)

v Freo (HitOuts 31-67)
4 Pendlebury
3 Swan
1 Crisp
1 Broomhead
1 Elliot
(5 Fyfe, 4 Mundy)

v Hawthorn (HitOuts 47-48)
3 Pendlebury
3 Crisp
2 Blair
2 Adams
2 Broomhead
1 Swan
1 Langdon
(3 Lewis, 3 Burgoyne)

v Port (Hitouts 68-56)
2 Adams
2 Pendlebury
2 Swan
1 Varcoe
1 Broomhead
(5 Wines)

In half of our losses, an opposition player has more than doubled the centre clearance count of our leading CC winner.
Is this a distinct lack of starpower, or are these opposition stars simply the beneficiaries of a structural deficiency, for example?

 

[Aed0s]

This is something I am trying to grapple with. In most of our games, the opposition has one or two star players who puts up relatively huge centre clearance numbers. If you look at our CC breakdown by player in each loss, and compare it to the numbers of some opposition players in the same game:

v Adelaide (HitOuts 40-38)
2 Swan
2 Marley
1 Broomhead
1 Pendlebury
1 Adams
1 Blair
(Incidentally, Danger got 4)

v Geelong (HitOuts 46-21)
2 Swan
2 Crisp
2 Witts
1 Broomhead
1 Adams
(5 Selwood)

v Richmond (HitOuts 33-43)
5 Adams
3 Swan
2 Crisp
1 Seedsman
1 Blair
1 Witts
(6 Martin, 4 Cotchin)

v Freo (HitOuts 31-67)
4 Pendlebury
3 Swan
1 Crisp
1 Broomhead
1 Elliot
(5 Fyfe, 4 Mundy)

v Hawthorn (HitOuts 47-48)
3 Pendlebury
3 Crisp
2 Blair
2 Adams
2 Broomhead
1 Swan
1 Langdon
(3 Lewis, 3 Burgoyne)

v Port (Hitouts 68-56)
2 Adams
2 Pendlebury
2 Swan
1 Varcoe
1 Broomhead
(5 Wines)

In half of our losses, an opposition player has more than doubled the centre clearance count of our leading CC winner.
Is this a distinct lack of starpower, or are these opposition stars simply the beneficiaries of a structural deficiency, for example?

I wouldn't think there is much of a correlation between winning the centre clearances and winning games. According to the statistics you've collected Carlton are 2nd and they're doing horribly. Also, you have to take into account who we're rucking against. I don't think anyone would say that our rucks would beat the likes of Sandilands and Goldstein. And against the Cats we were frequently double teamed by Geelong and Blicavs did a good job in affecting Pendlebury's game and his ability to clear the ball. So you also have to look at the individual circumstances of each match and then see where our deficiencies lie.

However, what we may lack in centre clearances we make up in other areas on the game such as clearances from stoppages. A centre clearance may result in a dead even stoppage, a mark for either team or even a turnover. Many centre clearances, especially in last night's match were in wet and slippery conditions which made them arguably more ineffective despite the metres gained (except for the early patches of the match where it was still relatively dry and PA managed a few clean centre clearances). Sometimes there are just too many variables to take into account like bad bounces, bad handballs or reading the tap wrong which can lead to clearances to the other team in the centre.

It is difficult to pinpoint one exact area of our game and somehow pin our loss on that one specific area, but I understand where you're coming from and I agree that it's an area we have to improve on as 15th is simply not good enough.

In the end the difference between winning and losing could be pinpointed on Pendlebury's errand soccer kick hitting the post instead of going through for a goal -- a difference of 50cms. That's how close it was. Out of 732 disposals only 1 of them needed to be 50cms to the right and we wouldn't even be having this discussion and instead we would be celebrating a well fought out and earned win.

 

[Morganashlee]

Clearance numbers along with % of game time
Swan - 11 with 86%
Adams - 7 with 74%
Pendlebury - 7 with 90%
DeGoey - 7 with 53%
Sidebottom - 5 with 93%

Get him out of the bloody vest and into the middle ffs.

Problem solved

#Gooey4DeGoey

 

[well left]

It's why Greenwood comes straight in when match conditioned.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

I think it just goes to show where our midfield is at compared to those other teams.

Outside of Pendles we don't have anyone really close to being an elite central midfield player... but we have a lot of depth of guys being run through there, and some huge potential for the future... but at this stage we are well below the class of the last 3 midfields we have faced.

I think De Goey has shown that the sky is the limit for him, Adams has shown that he is A grade, Crisp has been pretty good as "steak knives" and we've still got Greenwood to come in.
---

The other option, that many here don't like, is bringing Caff back in as a tagger when he's ready. In a number of these games it has really been 1 or 2 guys in the opposition midfield that take over and just seem unstoppable in spurts. Now Caff may cost us a bit in attacking power, but there is an argument that if he can negate the oppositions best player, then that could be room for an overall midfield win for us.

 

[tesselate_]

I wouldn't think there is much of a correlation between winning the centre clearances and winning games. According to the statistics you've collected Carlton are 2nd and they're doing horribly. Also, you have to take into account who we're rucking against. I don't think anyone would say that our rucks would beat the likes of Sandilands and Goldstein. And against the Cats we were frequently double teamed by Geelong and Blicavs did a good job in affecting Pendlebury's game and his ability to clear the ball. So you also have to look at the individual circumstances of each match and then see where our deficiencies lie.

The team that loses centre clearances loses the match a lot more often than not. Carlton is the exception, not the rule. The current top 4: West Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Sydney are not weak CC teams: they either dominate or at least breakeven. It's also no coincidence that GWS have dropped off since Mumford and Coniglio fell injured: they begun 7-3, winning the centre clearances in 6 of those wins. I don't think you can be anything but a reactive team when you concede first possession more often than not.

However, what we may lack in centre clearances we make up in other areas on the game such as clearances from stoppages. A centre clearance may result in a dead even stoppage, a mark for either team or even a turnover. Many centre clearances, especially in last night's match were in wet and slippery conditions which made them arguably more ineffective despite the metres gained (except for the early patches of the match where it was still relatively dry and PA managed a few clean centre clearances). Sometimes there are just too many variables to take into account like bad bounces, bad handballs or reading the tap wrong which can lead to clearances to the other team in the centre.

As I stated in the OP, tonight was not the first time we have lost convincingly in the centre. Yes there are "variables", luck and poor conditions involved, but each team has participated in over of 300 centre clearance contests. With such a large sample size, the impact of such are minimal and we should have a good idea of who the good centre clearances sides are and who isn't. We fit in the latter category.

In the end the difference between winning and losing could be pinpointed on Pendlebury's errand soccer kick hitting the post instead of going through for a goal -- a difference of 50cms. That's how close it was. Out of 732 disposals only 1 of them needed to be 50cms to the right and we wouldn't even be having this discussion and instead we would be celebrating a well fought out and earned win.

Perhaps it never would've gotten to that point had Wingard nailed those two gettable set shots. Maybe we capitulate, or never get a sniff being 0-36 down.

I think it just goes to show where our midfield is at compared to those other teams.

Outside of Pendles we don't have anyone really close to being an elite central midfield player... but we have a lot of depth of guys being run through there, and some huge potential for the future... but at this stage we are well below the class of the last 3 midfields we have faced.

If the problem is our personnel, why do we perform much better in the stoppages?

 

[didaksrightfoot]

If the problem is our personnel, why do we perform much better in the stoppages?

Probably because at centre clearances you only have 4 players around the ball (including ruckman) - while at stoppages it is at least twice that... Our gameplan is all about getting more players to the contest- it stands to reason that we do better when we are able to do that. (also, sheer weight of numbers, with the right effort, is sometimes enough to outdo class)

 

[Markfs]

As you can see below, we're currently ranked 16th for centre clearance differentials:

I want to bring your attention to the average differential: -1.57

If you look at our centre clearances in our losses this year:
8-15 v Adelaide (-7)
8-16 v Geelong (-8)
13-18 v Richmond (-5)
10-15 v Fremantle (-5)
14-9 v Hawthorn (+5)
8-12 v Port Adelaide (-4)

In our losses, we average a centre clearance differential of -4.0, which is more than double our overall average differential. In most of our losses, our opponents have a period where they pile on an avalance of goals, a momentum that we struggle to quell, eg: first quarter vs. Geelong, second quarter vs. Richmond, and of course, the first quarter tonight. How much of an effect does losing these centre clearances and conceding a defensive fifty entry immediately after conceding a goal have on opposition momentum?
When we do win the centre clearances, we're currently top 4 for converting that into the winning the match:

i.e, we've won the centre clearances in 4 matches, and only lost one of those matches (The Hawthorn game, incidentally).

I thoroughly believe centre clearances is the area we must improve on if we're to go to another level.
I hope to generate some discussion about why we aren't winning these clearances. It really baffles me: we're a very good stoppage team, we lead the competition for average contested possessions and according to the AFL website, we're 12th for centre bounce hitout differentials. What do you think is the solution? Is it structures? Do the players not synchronise well enough with Witts and Grundy, and fail to read the taps? Or do we just lack players who can get separation in a stoppage?

I love a good thread based on facts. Well done. I hope that you do more stuff on stoppages around the ground.

 

[Markfs]

btw, I saw some stats that indicated that Cameron Wood was responsible for a ton of clearances at Carlton.... it seems that he's "elite" in that area.... curious eh.

 

[NT.Thunder]

IMO if Greenfield was playing this season we'd have won the Richmond, Hawthorn and last nights Port game and possibly Fremantle.

Also, if Cloke and White were on top of their games I'm confident we'd have won these also.

We aren't far off the pace. A little moneyball this trade period see us move right into contention for top 4 and a flag over the next 5 years. We need consistency across four quarters, self belief and to start winning these games that are there to be won.

The sky was falling last night but really when you wake, it's as sunny as it's been in a long time.

Although it is pissing rain here right now so not sure if that's telling me something!

 

[legendstatus]

I've been banging on about this for a few years now, clearly we have young ruckmen & rotation of either young or experience players in the middle. That for me means we need to get greenwood in ASAP! I also reckon this hurts us more interstate where opposition get first use of the ball and their crowd is up. On a positive, our defence has held up pretty well and bodes well for pressure cooker environment.

 

[mike123]

Perhaps its the speed of a mids. Swan not as quick as he used to be and I find Crisp takes a good three steps before he hits full pace. In around the ground stoppages there a more players and less space so pace wouldn't be a problem there. Maybe a Dangerfield or Treloar might help fix this.

 

[1ipie]

As you can see below, we're currently ranked 16th for centre clearance differentials:

I want to bring your attention to the average differential: -1.57

If you look at our centre clearances in our losses this year:
8-15 v Adelaide (-7)
8-16 v Geelong (-8)
13-18 v Richmond (-5)
10-15 v Fremantle (-5)
14-9 v Hawthorn (+5)
8-12 v Port Adelaide (-4)

In our losses, we average a centre clearance differential of -4.0, which is more than double our overall average differential. In most of our losses, our opponents have a period where they pile on an avalance of goals, a momentum that we struggle to quell, eg: first quarter vs. Geelong, second quarter vs. Richmond, and of course, the first quarter tonight. How much of an effect does losing these centre clearances and conceding a defensive fifty entry immediately after conceding a goal have on opposition momentum?
When we do win the centre clearances, we're currently top 4 for converting that into the winning the match:

i.e, we've won the centre clearances in 4 matches, and only lost one of those matches (The Hawthorn game, incidentally).

I thoroughly believe centre clearances is the area we must improve on if we're to go to another level.
I hope to generate some discussion about why we aren't winning these clearances. It really baffles me: we're a very good stoppage team, we lead the competition for average contested possessions and according to the AFL website, we're 12th for centre bounce hitout differentials. What do you think is the solution? Is it structures? Do the players not synchronise well enough with Witts and Grundy, and fail to read the taps? Or do we just lack players who can get separation in a stoppage?

I've noticed its when Witts is in the middle .. He doesn't create space for the midfielders after the tap , Grundy scrags a 50 50 ball then blocks like jolly did .. it happened against the Hawks till white when in the ruck and again last night till they made the switch with Grundy .. Witts needs to harden up ..